The opening weekend of ACC play is finally complete and despite the chilly weather, there was plenty of action throughout the conference. The first stop on the ACC tour this year comes in Durham, where we got our first looks at Wake Forest in the 2023 campaign against a talented Duke squad.
In this week’s installment of Deep Drives, we’ll break down the Wake Forest rotation, which is full of draft prospects, as well as a couple of big bats that’ll be key to watch as we move forward.
RHP rhett lowder, wake forest
Rhett Lowder has long been one of our favorite collegiate arms, there’s no denying that. He’s amongst the upper echelon of college arms in this class for a reason. Expectations were high heading into the opening ACC matchup against Duke, and while it may not have been the greatest start in the world, there’s still something to take away from it.
Lowder’s operation is as easy as it comes. He repeats his delivery well and does a good job of hiding the ball, which ultimately comes out of a three-quarters arm slot. His stuff was slightly inconsistent throughout the outing, though the fastball velocity stayed the same. He came out at 91-94 MPH and even bumped 95 MPH in the third inning before parking it around 91-92 MPH in the last two innings. The fastball shape is primarily that of a two-seam/sinker, though he did manage to elevate and generate whiffs early on, showcasing some riding life at the top of the zone. With that said, Duke hitters did a good job sitting on the heater and did some damage as a result.
The plus change-up that Lowder possesses wasn’t up to its usual billing, either. The shape is obviously there, showcasing parachute-like fade in the mid-80s, but the command simply wasn’t. He struggled to land the pitch for strikes and ultimately ended up with just one whiff on the pitch in the outing, a diving 86 MPH cambio to Giovanni DiGiacomo in the second inning. The slider was in the same boat, as Lowder had trouble landing it glove-side to righties and there were a couple of pitches that he lacked feel for. It got better as the outing went on, especially when kept low and in to righties, where its depth and bite played well.
I don’t see the lack of command too concerning given the weather situation. He rarely walks batters as it is. That said, I’d like to see more whiffs with the fastball and slider in particular, as their shapes are a bit lackluster. His pitchability still stands out regardless and gives him a higher floor than others while still having a decent ceiling to work with.
LHP Sean Sullivan, Wake Forest
A Northwestern transfer prior to the 2023 season, Sullivan is a unicorn of sorts. It was never guaranteed that he’d be in the starting rotation given Wake Forest’s immense pitching depth, but it’s March and he’s solidified himself as their Saturday starter with dominant performances leading up to his appearance against Duke. However, much like Lowder on Friday, Sullivan experienced some adversity in his outing.
It’s a unique delivery with plenty of deception and a low slot that’s nearly side-arm. He’s able to fill up the zone despite the gangly nature of his operation and he’s predominantly a fastball guy. While the fastball shape itself consists more of a modest ride and some running life, he’s able to miss a bunch of bats with it thanks to his Vertical Approach Angle (VAA). In short, thanks to this and his lower release height, the fastball plays up from its fringy velocity, which was 87-91 MPH throughout the outing. The fastball was his primary strikeout weapon throughout the outing, with all eight strikeouts coming with the pitch.
He’d dabble in a change-up with good fading life in the low-80s, though the pitch had very little command and was not thrown for a called strike in the entire outing. The slider was in roughly the same velocity band as the change-up and there’s good sweeping life to it, though much like the change-up, he did not have much command of it and the pitch felt more loopy at times. All three pitches have solid spin rates and the extension numbers stand out for Sullivan, getting upwards of seven feet at some points.
He’s definitely made the best of his situation as a starter, though I think he’s more of a reliever long term. I do wonder how much more velocity he can add given his arm slot and frame, even with the fastball playing up from what it is right now. There’s late Day 1 buzz surrounding him given his performances so far, though early Day 2 is not out of the question with Sullivan.
lhp josh hartle, wake forest
Hartle’s evolution under Wake Forest’s supervision has been a fun one to watch unfold. Last year was a rocky freshmen year for the southpaw, but the turnaround in 2023 is something akin to what Rhett Lowder did from his freshmen to sophomore year.
The velocity spike that we’ve been expecting from Hartle has still yet to materialize, but the frame he has gives the idea that it’s still on the way at some point. He’s long and lanky with a very easy operation on the mound and he’s made a repertoire change that has paid massive dividends to his draft stock in 2024. He held 88-91 MPH throughout his whole outing with some decent carry to the heater with a change-up not too far behind velocity-wise in the mid-80s with some tumbling action. But what has set him apart now is the cutter. It’s a dynamic offering and a game-changer for Hartle. It’s in the 86-88 MPH range with tight spin and he’s able to consistently backdoor it to righties and get plenty of whiffs in the process. There’s a solid chance that the pitch becomes plus at some point down the line.
The low-80s slider that Hartle possesses is just as impressive as the cutter itself. Originally more of a curveball in his prep days, it’s become more of a slider now. There’s sharp bite and he was able to consistently keep it down and get a couple of whiffs with the pitch. Overall, the command was great and he was able to work east-west with ease across the zone. The big key for him will likely be a velocity spike, which would only boost his profile even further with the breaking balls he has in his arsenal. A first-round selection is not out of the cards with his profile next summer.
3B Brock wilken, wake forest
Brockets are love, Brockets are life. And it’s just part of what makes Wilken the kind of top prospect that he is today.
Wilken’s massive raw power is what sets him apart from other ACC bats. His swing is designed to put backspin on balls with the loft it has and his bat speed certainly stands out. He’s put up plenty of high exit velocities this year with multiple 105+ MPH batted ball events in 2023, as well as being one of the national leaders in home runs. His twelfth home run of the year was no different on Friday night, as he demolished a hanging slider from Aidan Weaver for a go-ahead three-run home run. The ball left the bat at 108.6 MPH and was a screaming line drive that managed to clear the high wall in left field.
While strikeouts have been a concern in the past, he’s looked better with his approach this spring. He’s improved his eye at the plate and has begun to increase his walk rate, plus he’s started to utilize the whole field, something that he says he has been trying to work on. He is still rather passive, which does allow pitchers to get deeper into counts against him and utilize their weapons, hence the strikeout woes that he had in 2022. That said, he’s certainly beginning to make a solid case to be a first rounder with the bat.
Defensively, I do have questions on whether or not he’s going to stick at the hot corner at the pro level. He’s got the arm strength for the position, there’s no denying that. However, he does struggle to move laterally, limiting his range. It’s likely that he moves across the diamond to first base at some point, which could be sooner rather than later. Another defensive home could be in a corner outfield spot to give his arm some playing time, but the likelihood of staying at third seems unlikely.
SS Alex Mooney, Duke
The most heralded prospect to reach campus in the ACC entering the 2022 season, Mooney had a rough start to his career, though he’s made a big turnaround both at the plate and in the dirt.
He’s more hit-over-power with the bat at this stage, with his raw power likely being no more than average. He’s yet to send one over the fence, with his swing tailor made for line drives more than anything else. It’s more gap-to-gap with the power, but what’s been impressive has been the improved disciplined at the plate. He’s showing more patience, though he did have some whiffs on breaking balls low in the zone. His speed allows him to be a menace on the basepaths, as well, as he’s up to seven stolen bases.
His defense is where he really shines. He’s got the range and mobility to stay at shortstop long term and he’s impressed with the arm so far. He makes everything look easy and there’s not been many errors to his name this year, signifying a step forward in that regard. He’s become more of a clubhouse leader, as well. All in all, it’s a potentially above-average hit tool with a solid grouping of tools that’ll carry his profile into Day 1 conversations should the uptrend in production continue into ACC play.
1B Nick kurtz, wake forest
Is there a more dynamic bat in the ACC than Nick Kurtz? For my money, I’d have to say no. Players like Kurtz do not grow on trees often. It’s a extra large frame, coming in at 6’6”, 230 pounds with a solid amount of projection still left to it. But at his size, finding a player capable of hitting for both average and power at his level is very rare.
Kurtz’s swing is a fun one to dissect. It’s a very quiet load with a minimal toe tap for timing before he explodes through the zone with great bat speed. There’s natural loft to his swing and stupidly good raw power, which is easily plus at this point in time. It’ll only get better as he begins to fill out his frame, too. The power plays to all fields and so does the hit tool. It’s an advanced approach at the plate, drawing walks aplenty and limiting strikeouts, though he did have two strikeouts against Jonathan Santucci on Friday. He was a bit quiet over the first two games, though finally found his footing in Game 3. He covered the zone well and managed to golf a double to the opposite field and showed off average speed.
He’s also a viable defender at first base. Despite his size, he’s pretty athletic and moves well at the position. He only had four errors to his name in 2022, and he’s continued to impress there with none in 2023 and a perfect fielding percentage. He could find himself playing other positions soon, probably a corner outfield spot to give him some versatility, but it’s hard to do that with how well he plays at first.
Many view Kurtz as one of the best bats in next year’s class with his toolset and it’s easy to see why. The tantalizing toolset he has, especially with his frame and projection, gives him an easy first round profile, maybe even going as high as the top ten if he keeps his production up.