This will be my first article for Prospects Live in months. After finishing that last piece, which covered some college teams during fall ball, I had a lengthy list of article ideas in the hopper that I intended on writing and releasing as we approached opening weekend for college baseball.
That didn't happen. It's now the end of April, and a good chunk of the 2023 draft cycle has come and gone. As much as I love baseball and the amateur scene, other factors in life can eat away at the things you value, enjoy, and desire. That's what happened to me. Several weeks ago, I felt that I had turned a corner. Then in a freak occurrence, I broke my jaw. It felt like the universe was against me. Staying positive through my recovery from surgery was a challenge, and it set me back, all the while knowing that the clock on the 2023 draft cycle was ticking away. But I’m back now and it feels good.
About a month ago, I attended my first game of the spring, a matchup between Stony Brook and UNC Wilmington. I'll talk more about what I saw on the field that day in a separate article. For me, being at that game was bigger than the content I could create for the site, it was an enormous step towards living the life I wanted to live. I've had better days at the ball field, I messed up a couple of clips as I shook off the rust, but it wasn't about that. I felt like myself for the first time in months and it gave me confidence that I could do this effectively and enjoy myself in the process.
I love going to games and providing live looks. But I also want to start putting out content that goes beyond that. In this piece, I decided to be vulnerable and write in a way that reflects who I truly am. In the past, I've been hesitant or unwilling to do that. Striving to be "objective" when evaluating players is valuable. But focusing on that objectivity piece had a tendency to make my articles and even actions feel robotic. I want to write in a way that is informative, engaging, and representative of who I am. My goal isn't to replace Joe. I can't do that. Instead, my goal is to be the person I want to be at Prospects Live and in the baseball community as a whole. We have a strong, passionate group of people here and, as a team, we'll continue putting out quality content throughout the season.
Fringe (College) Five Primer
Last year I started an article series called the Fringe (College) Five that was focused on finding under-the-radar draft talent among the division one ranks. You can check out my original piece for more information HERE.
The 2023 edition of the Fringe Five will start next week with weekly or biweekly updates through the month of June. Here are the criteria for inclusion:
Criteria:
Must be eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft
Must play at the Division 1 College Level
Can’t be included on the current Prospects Live Draft Board
Before starting a fresh batch of Fringe Fivers, I thought it might be worthwhile to look back and see what happened with the players that made the cut last year. Who got drafted/signed, and where did they end up? Did anyone stand out in pro ball? Let's take a look.
Chuck Ingram, Outfield, Wichita State; Undrafted; Current Level: NCAA
Blake Rambusch, Third Base, Auburn; 15th round, Mariners; Current Level: A+
Dalton Shuffield, Shortstop, Texas State; 10th round, Twins, Current Level: A
Dylan Tebrake, Right-Handed Pitcher, Creighton, 8th round, Mets; Current Level: A+ (7 day IL)
Zeke Wood, Right-Handed Pitcher; Texas State; Undrafted; Current Level:NCAA
Dylan Ray, Right-Handed Pitcher; Alabama, 4th round, Diamondbacks; Current Level:A+
Brandon Johnson, Right-Handed Pitcher, Ole Miss; 9th round, Royals; Current Level: A
Paul Gervase, Right-Handed Pitcher, LSU, 12th round, Mets; Current Level: A+
Trey Nordmann, Right-Handed Pitcher, Lipscomb: UDFA, Orioles; Current Level: A (7 day IL)
Alex Hoppe, Right-Handed Pitcher, UNC Greensboro; 6th round, Red Sox; Current Level: A+
Dylan Rock, Outfielder, Texas A&M; 8th round, Blue Jays; Current Level: AA
Jackson Loftin, Shortstop, Oral Roberts; 13th round, Astros; Current Level: A
Josiah Sightler, Outfielder, South Carolina; 12th round, Pirates; Current Level: N/A (60 day IL)
Adam Crampton, Shortstop, Stanford; 9th round, Orioles; Current Level: A
Trevor Werner, Third Base, Texas A&M; Undrafted; Current Level: NCAA
Not many high picks. But the reality is that by the time I started this series in mid-May, the draft board included 500 players. When the last couple of entries were published in July, our board was 600 players deep. Only five D1 players were selected in the top five rounds of the draft that were not on that May board, one of whom was Dylan Ray. In July, that number dwindled down to just two, Reid VanScoter and Ryan Jennings. This makes it difficult to determine the success of this series based solely on where players were drafted. Starting this process earlier means that there is more opportunity for included players to make their way up our board and during the draft, which is what happened with Dylan Ray.
Perhaps another way to measure success is by focusing on the amount of Fringe Fivers that are now in pro ball. Twelve of the fifteen (80%) are currently playing for a pro club, eleven of whom were drafted. Seven of those twelve were drafted on day two of the draft, which concludes after round ten. The three players who are not in the pros, Chuck Ingram, Zeke Wood, and Trevor Werner, are still competing at the college level and could, in theory, be selected in 2023. I’m pretty happy with that 80% mark, as I think I did a solid job of identifying players that pro teams were interested in. Breaking that 80% hit rate and finding some more top-five rounders like Dylan Ray is what I’ll be striving to accomplish with the 2023 edition of the series.
By the time our final draft board was released, Dylan Ray ranked #259 overall. Ray was young for the class as an eligible sophomore and didn’t pitch at all as a freshman in 2021. His limited innings at Alabama could have been a barrier to getting drafted, but a terrific CCBL performance apparently was enough for the Diamondbacks to pull the trigger.
The Mets selected two of my FF pitchers. Coincidence?!?!? Ya, definitely. Paul Gervase and Dylan Tebrake fit in a similar bucket with Alex Hoppe, Brandon Johnson, and Trey Nordmann as older, righty relievers (Tebrake is starting but is likely a bullpen arm) with exceptional raw stuff and questionable control. Any one of these pitchers could figure things out and develop into a late-inning arm, but they could also fail to make it past A ball.
The hitters I picked are way more diverse than the pitchers. Some power goons, some speed demons, some flashy defenders. It's hard to make any determinations at this point because the sample of games is so small. Dylan Rock starting at AA is an interesting surprise, as is Dalton Shuffield getting a look at AAA (and performing; .855 OPS) last year.
We're probably looking at role players at best, but finding later-round role players still has value. Whatever happens with the OG group of fringe fivers, the search for a new batch of undiscovered draft prospects begins next week!