Hey everyone, we’re excited to kick off Complex ball along with the Dominican Summer League. The three leagues are full of players with a ton of promise. In an exclusive Patreon post, Jake Kerns and Matt Thompson went team by team and dropped a massive 8,800-word preview of the players that you need to know about and have on your radar.
Here is a teaser of what you can expect inside:
Arizona Complex League
Mariners
The Mariners are poised to have one of the better rosters in either complex league, and it could be further bolstered if Felnin Celesten draws an assignment there. The recent international signing was our second ranked prospect in this past class, and he’s already drawing Top 100 consideration despite never taking an official at-bat. He’s impressive on both sides of the ball, and the pure upside puts him up there with Ethan Salas and Sebastian Walcott. His power and overall maturity is what will give him the opportunity to carry over his performance from the Arizona backfields to the ACL, assuming he gets the call. If he doesn’t, he should be a standout in the DSL.
Lazaro Montes was the team’s top international signing in 2022, and got into a lot of power in the Dominican Summer League. That’s the kind of long-term value that the 18-year-old offers. It looks like a traditional right field thumper profile, with potentially plus game power and above-average arm strength. We like him as a breakout pick if he is able to avoid strikeouts and get the ball in play. It’s no guarantee given what he showed last year, and the approach and bat-to-ball skills will definitely need improvement if he is to reach his lofty ceiling. Michael Arroyo was a standout in the DSL thanks to his average tools across the board. He lacks the same kind of offensive upside as Montes, but he nonetheless feels relatively safer. It seems likely that he’s a long-term second baseman, but the tools are there to grow into a low-end starter. We listed Arroyo as the better prospect based on the floor, but there’s a pretty distinct chance that these two flip spots this summer.
The Mariners also have talent on the mound, with Walter Ford leading the way. He’ll play the entire season as an 18-year-old after being young for his draft class, and the stuff is already pretty big. He has already touched 97 MPH and has a projectable frame, so there’s probably more velocity coming. His slider projects as an above-average pitch, and the arsenal as a whole gives him a mid-rotation ceiling. The Mariners have done well to develop arms over the last several years, and Ford could be next in line despite his youth. Ashton Izzi is similarly armed with projectability and present stuff. He works more in the low-90s, but there should be more coming in the not-so-distant future. He also possesses a mid-rotation ceiling, and these two arms have the chance to truly cap off a special draft.
Juan Pinto signed with the Mariners way back in 2021, and he’s poised to come stateside after a solid professional debut. He has already done wonders in transforming his body, and there remains projectability. The 19-year-old just squeezed onto the Top 30 in the offseason, and it’s the deep repertoire and predictability that standout. He’ll need to throw more strikes to remain in the rotation long-term, and there’s also no guarantee his stuff takes that leap that we’re projecting. Jean Munoz was named the organization’s pitching sleeper in the Scouting Handbook, and that was tied to an athletic frame and a fastball that already approaches the mid-90s. He repeated the Dominican Summer League last year and should be poised to come stateside.
Others of note: Carlos Jimenez, Jeter Martinez, Martin Gonzalez, Starlin Aguilar
Florida Complex League
Marlins
The Marlins figure to have one of the more talented rosters in the Florida Complex League. The team has four Top 30 prospects primed to report there, and all four of them could be considered to be the top guy on the roster. Our favorite is Jose Gerardo because of his significant tools on both sides of the ball. Jake covered him in his Six Pack back on March 25th. The profile screams future corner slugger, and he has the double-plus arm strength to profile there. The biggest question is the hit tool, which in turn will depend on him cutting down an aggressive approach and improving his bat-to-ball skills. Those are big asks, but he’s going to play the full season as an 18-year-old (he turns on June 12th) and has time. Antony Peguero ranked a spot behind Gerardo in our first annual Scouting Handbook, and the tools are comparable. He perhaps lacks the same kind of power ceiling, but we probably have more faith in his hit tool long-term. He likewise projects as a corner outfielder with plenty of arm strength to fit in right field.
We were aggressive with Marco Vargas due to his lack of pedigree. He has the best hit tool out of the prospects set to report to the organization’s FCL team. It’s unsurprisingly a contact-oriented approach, but he also has some speed and enough defensive ability to play the keystone. His upside probably isn’t as high as the two names mentioned before him, but there’s a higher floor. Teenage catchers are a notoriously risky profile, but Ronald Hernandez has a chance to be a solid one. His defense is ahead of his offense at this point in his development, but he’s a switch-hitter who has taken steps necessary to improve his offense. The complex league will be his first opportunity to demonstrate those changes in an official capacity.
The team’s top signing this year was Janero Miller, who projects as a potential two-way player. There’s some natural pessimism associated with expecting a player to be able to do that professionally, but the early results are positive. He has a fastball that touches the low-to-mid-90s and a couple offspeed pitches that project as average or better. We definitely like his future on the mound, but he’s athletic and showed enough hitting ability to suggest he can also play on offense. He’ll begin the year in the DSL.
Others of note: Kendry Feliz, Jose Monserrate, Julio Henriquez, Yoffry Solano, Deivis Mosquera, Andres Valor