2023 Topps Series 2 is here and with it comes an impressive group of desirable Flagship rookie cards, headlined by Jordan Walker, Corbin Carroll, and Anthony Volpe.
Carrying over the 2023 changes to the product previews started with 2023 Bowman, this article will be organized into teams and then broken down by Tier. Ceiling will still be incorporated, but Risk will not as these players have all had their MLB debuts.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Ceiling Grade
Ceiling has been assigned to each player to provide a quick glimpse into their hobby impact.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
Corbin Carroll, OF, 22
The superlatives are endless with Carroll. After a tantalizing late-season debut in 2022, Carroll has stepped up his game while helping lead the Dbacks to a potential playoff-contending team after two months of the season.
A former first rounder (2019) that did nothing but continuously climb team and overall prospect lists until he graduated from prospect status earlier this year, the pedigree is there. The tools are there with no real weaknesses. His speed is elite, no-one-even-close speed. He plays a plus centerfield with a good enough arm. The hit tool is plus and shows improvement with plus walk (11%) and strikeout rates (20%). The power continues to exceed expectations given his skinnier frame, putting up 9 home runs through the first two months of the season, putting him on pace for 25+. In his first full season, Carroll could put up a line with a .280+ average, 50 steals, and 25 home runs. That’s easily All-Star caliber and potentially a top 10 player in real baseball, fantasy baseball, and creeping into that territory for the Hobby as well.
The obvious negative is team context - Arizona is not a strongly collected team and in the short term, if they fall out of contention (outside of Zac Gallen, that starting staff is not playoff caliber), Carroll’s achievements and skills may not be regularly in the sight of the public at large. To be fair, these negatives are so minor as to not even be considered, but it is a context worth knowing. Ceiling: 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Ryne Nelson, P, 25
The lanky Nelson had a brief but exciting debut for the Diamondbacks in September, leading us to see the SP3 ceiling in his outcome of possibilities. He then went and won the final rotation spot for Arizona out of Spring Training. And that was basically the pinnacle of the short Ryne Nelson experience.
He has been inconsistent with the scales tipping towards more bad than good in 2023. The strength of his repertoire, a plus mid-90s fastball that he throws over half the time, has not been getting the swing and miss that he needs to be successful. His secondaries, outside of a cutter, have all been equally bad. I would not be surprised if we see Nelson either moved to the bullpen like Jameson has been off and on this season or sent down at some point. That would require Arizona to have better options, which at the moment really don’t exist on the roster. I’m not out on Nelson, but he’s pitching like a back-end rotation guy with significant bullpen risk.
The stuff is there, and it may take a while to get there, but from a hobby perspective, there’s not a lot to hang your hat on in the short term. Ceiling: 6
Drey Jameson, P, 25
Similar to Nelson, Jameson got a late season call up in 2022 and absolutely crushed it in four starts. Come 2023, Jameson was in the running to take that final rotation spot in Spring Training but ultimately lost out to Nelson. Rather than ending up back in Triple-A, Arizona somewhat surprisingly put Jameson in the bullpen. He’s bounced between the rotation, the bullpen, and Triple-A in just two months so far. Dude must be getting whiplash.
He’s currently featuring a relatively even three-pitch mix of a high-90s four-seamer, mid-90s sinker, and a mid-80s slider. He also has a changeup and a curveball, but rarely uses them. Outside of a one-inning, three run semi-blowup towards the end of April that ended that particular stint at the MLB level, he’s pitched relatively well in his hybrid role. The raw stuff is there to one day be a mid-rotation starter, similar to Nelson. However, the bullpen risk is much more real as he’s already been working in that role. I’m still going to keep him in Tier 3 because of the potential, but his ceiling gets dinged a bit more than Nelson because of the reality of a reliever present and future. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Tommy Henry - P - Back-end starter/long reliever profile. Left handed so it will likely help Henry have a career in baseball for a while, filling various roles on a pitching staff for a second division team. The fastball sits low 90s and isn’t terribly effective, while his two main secondaries - a changeup and a curveball, do most of the work. Doesn’t get much swing-and-miss and is mostly looking to suppress hard contact. He’s actually pitched a bit above his head this year, but I’m not buying it. He does have two first names though, so at least he’s got that going for him. Ceiling: 2
Baltimore Orioles
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
DL Hall, P, 24
DL’s stuff is straight nasty - unfortunately, that comes with significant command concerns that have plenty of people speculating that his long term role is in the bullpen. Don’t get me wrong - Hall could be an absolute stud in the back-end of the bullpen with a nasty mid to upper-90s four seam fastball, high-80s slider, changeup, and curveball. None of his pitches have a CSW under 26%, which is basically MLB league average or better. His changeup has a 44% whiff rate as so many hitters are geared up for that high-octane fastball. He’s also a top 10 pitcher in our 2023 PLIVE- rankings.
Unfortunately, as I said off the top, it comes with command issues and a high walk rate, currently around 12% (MLB SP league average is around 8%). The SP ceiling here is easily an SP2 and the floor is a nasty high leverage reliever that will get the occasional blow up. It’s a Tier 3 ranking, but that is very temporary - in a few years we’ll look back and, with the advantage of hindsight, be able to say he should have been a Tier None reliever or a Tier 2 SP. I would be surprised if he was a Tier 3 middle to back end SP3/4 type like others in this product. A real boom or bust type of pitcher. Ceiling: 8
Tier None
Terrin Vavra, UTIL, 26
A valuable player to have at the end of your real life baseball roster, Vavra doesn’t provide much value for the hobby.
He’s defensively versatile, able to play anywhere but shortstop or catcher (and perhaps center) with his best fit essentially as a second base/left field type. He’ll put the ball in play, take some walks, not strike out too much and generally have solid at bats. There won’t be a ton of pop, stolen bases, or hard contact which ultimately limits his ceiling and ranks him down in Tier None. Ceiling: 3
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Masataka Yoshida, OF, 29
One of the three rookie NPB imports, Yoshida has more than held his own against MLB competition in 2023. It was quite an interesting topic prior to the season with Yoshida on whether he would be able to do that or if he was going to be more of league average player (which would still be a starter in Boston given the state of their roster) or if he would be able to essentially maintain his high-end NPB stat-lines.
After two months, he’s shown he’s the real deal, hitting over .300 with 7 home runs and a 145 wRC+ (as of writing). He regularly produced similar .300+ averages and 20 - 30 home runs in Japan prior to joining the MLB, so it seems like the questions many had, including myself, have been answered. Lacking any other context, this would be in consideration for a Tier 1 ranking.
Adding in the context - on the positive side, there is international appeal and he’s on a collectible team. On the negative side, Boston is in the most competitive division in baseball and while they are playing roughly .500 ball, that won’t be enough to get into the playoffs any time soon. In addition, Yoshida is already 29 years old. While he’s looking to be more of a plus hit and above average power bat with just average speed, a profile that tends to age well, he’s already lost a significant chunk of MLB career stat accumulation. We are also probably seeing the back end of his peak as well.
Short term, Yoshida’s cards probably have a decent ceiling and I wouldn’t argue if you had him as a Tier 1 player given how good he’s been. Long term, it’s a much more risky proposition. And that will keep me from pushing him into Tier 1 with a high-end Ceiling. Ceiling: 9
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Hayden Wesneski, P, 25
Acquired from the Yankees at the deadline in 2022 for reliever Scott Effross, at the moment it appears the Cubs have gotten the better end of the deal.
Wesneski has already shown that he can be an effective back-end starter. There isn’t likely a ton of upside to get him past the SP4 Ceiling, but the floor shouldn’t be that far away from that either. Given his diverse arsenal and above average command and control, Wesneski doesn’t carry much bullpen risk. His arsenal is led by a plus slider and an above average, mid-90s four seamer that each gets thrown about a third of the time. From there he’ll mix in a cutter, sinker, and changeup, all roughly average pitches. The path towards success is limiting hard contact and walks. There isn’t a bunch of strikeout upside, which contributes to the above comment on his ceiling and caps his ranking in Tier 3. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Miles Mastrobuoni, UTIL, 27
Acquired from the Rays in the off-season as Tampa had a 40-man/Rule 5 draft roster crunch, Mastrobuoni had an 8-game debut for the Rays last season and has been providing bench depth for the Cubs off and on this season.
He’s the epitome of providing a utility floor with average tools across the board. He can play all over the infield and both outfield corners, hit for average, take a walk, steal a base, and hit the ball over the wall occasionally. There’s no standout or even above average tools, which caps his Ceiling and keeps him in the Tier None ranks. Ceiling: 3
Javier Assad, P, 25
Not on my radar until this off-season’s World Baseball Classic, Assad pitched well for Team Mexico in the tournament. He was one of the Cubs “Just Missed” players in our 2023 Prospects Live Handbook and not much has changed from that evaluation.
Assad’s got a kitchen sink of pitches with a cutter, sinker, slider, and four-seamer being the main pitches he relies on with the hard stuff living in the low-90’s. Not much of a strikeout pitcher, he is mainly looking to live on the edges of the zone and force ground balls. Essentially a bulk-inning reliever that can provide spot starts that may get a back-end rotation job on a second division team as a ceiling in the future, which is not at all interesting from a hobby perspective. Ceiling: 2
Chicago White Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Oscar Colás, OF, 24
Hanging around the bottom of Tier 2 for me in both Bowman releases in 2022 (Bowman Baseball for his 1st Bowman base and Bowman Chrome for his 1st Bowman auto), I am going to keep him there for his rookie card as not much has changed even with a rough debut to start the season.
He’s still a plus power hitter with some potential for an above average hit tool over time. He struggled with pretty much everything in his MLB debut highlighted by a really high ground ball rate, which traditionally has not been a problem for Colás. He’s returned back to form, at least in this regard, with his demotion back to Triple-A. I’d like to see the power pick back up for him as he only had one home run in his April stint with the big league club and only one so far with the Triple-A squad.
His 2023 performance is trending towards more of a Tier 3 ranking, but prospect pedigree plus the all-important big power potential gives him a high enough Ceiling for me to keep him at the bottom end of my Tier 2. Definitely a buyer beware situation as I don’t think that in the short term there will be a ton of potential for selling. Long term I do see this as a buy-low opportunity if you want to take on the risk that he either does or doesn’t end up figuring out MLB pitching. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Carlos Pérez, C, 26
A backup catcher that is more impactful as a hitter than a receiver, Pérez knows how to put the bat to the ball and is very good at limiting the strikeouts even if he doesn’t take many walks. Last year he had an unexpected power surge with 21 home runs in Triple-A, and is doing the same again, showing it was no fluke, with 9 home runs through 40 Triple-A games (as of writing). He can handle the position, but his arm is an obvious deficiency, essentially eliminating any full-time job for him behind the plate in the future.
Pérez had a cup of coffee last year and this year as well, but the defensive liability plus the catcher penalty limits his Ceiling significantly. He is an interesting player because of the bat, but not enough to overcome the negatives and get him out of Tier None. Ceiling: 4
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Spencer Steer, 1B/3B, 25
The offensive profile is what carries Steer to being an MLB level player, but the defense isn’t good enough to ensure he will have a full time role. Don’t get me wrong - he’s good enough to play in the dirt, but there isn’t enough to keep him at any position on the diamond over a more competent defender. On a Reds team with a ton of young infield talent on the horizon if not already there, it puts even more pressure on Steer to have a full time role in Cincinnati in the short term.
Steer does everything well and is currently producing above average results in the first two months of the season with roughly a 125 wRC+. He has a strong plate approach with good bat to ball skills leading to plus strikeout rates, average walk rates, and a high batting average. There’s above average power as well, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting in one of the best places to hit home runs in the MLB. If he played all his games at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, his home run total would be cut in half.
There’s a strong floor of an offense-first utility player, and a good ceiling in a hitter friendly stadium that could see him approach Tier 2 territory. That ranking was definitely something I considered given the results of the first two months of the season, but I want to see it done for a full season or two before I think he can jump into that territory for me. I wouldn’t fault anyone for thinking that Steer deserves a Tier 2 ranking at this point. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Will Benson, OF, 24
Acquired from the Guardians for Justin Boyd, Steven Hajjar and cash in this past off-season. I’m not sure why anyone trades with Cleveland, unless you're the Rays and you can steal Junior Caminero right out from under them.
Back to Benson - he’s a big, athletic dude who looks like he would have no problem competing on the gridiron and has the raw power you would expect in a dude his size. He’s got easy power and enough speed to get double-digit steals with a full-time job. The problem is that he won't hit enough and has significant strikeout issues that will limit his ability to get a full-time job.
The most likely outcome is a strong side platoon corner outfielder with the worst case being the dreaded Quad-A slugger. The ceiling is relatively high for a Tier None player due to the power, but the likelihood of reaching that ceiling is pretty low. Ceiling: 5
Michael Siani - OF - Siani possesses a strong floor due to his speed and defense, but there isn’t much ceiling as he won’t hit for a high average or more than 10-15 home runs. Being in Cincinnati, I should probably hedge that number, but his swing is set up to put the ball in play more than hit it over the fence. There is real baseball relevance and potential some fantasy baseball relevance if he finds a starting role given his speed. Hobby relevance, on the other hand, is pretty much none for what looks to be a fourth outfielder type. Ceiling: 2
Cleveland Guardians
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Bo Naylor, C, 23
The young catcher of the future in Cleveland got a brief 5 game debut in 2022 and has just had 1 game with the big league squad in 2023.
He will play behind the plate, but his skill set isn’t anything to keep a stranglehold on the position. He’s never going to hit for average given his swing path, but he’ll give you the OBP with his patient approach and penchant for high walk rates. What he will provide is power, popping 21 homers last year and 9 so far in two months of 2023.
With that above average power, good plate approach, and draft and family pedigree, Naylor could be in consideration for Tier 2. The catcher penalty really is the easy cop out to push Naylor down into Tier 3 and cap his ceiling. Given how he’s not getting the playing time for a surprisingly not good Cleveland team, I’ll use that cop out and keep him in Tier 3. Ceiling: 7
Will Brennan, OF, 25
2022 continued the upward trend of success for Brennan which culminated in his end-of-season debut. That success is built on a strong bat-to-ball, contact-oriented approach which leads to a typically high batting average in the .280 - .300 range and a sub-20% strikeout rate. In fact, it’s never been over 17% in his career, even this year which has not been that great so far.
There’s a nice floor of a fourth outfielder with an everyday hit-first outfielder, but he doesn’t have enough power or speed to give him that hobby juice needed to get into Tier 2. Ceiling: 6
Tyler Freeman, 2B, 24
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there’s a young Cleveland hitter that plays good defense and has a potential plus hit tool. There is a lack of power holding back his ability to solidify a future full time starting role, and he regularly runs ground ball rates in the mid-40%’s to low-50%’s, indicative of that hit-over-power swing path. There are some chip-in steals, but nothing to get excited about. Best suited for second base given his offensive profile, Freeman will also contribute at this base and shortstop as well.
A nice player from a real baseball perspective that should regularly flirt with a .300 batting average, it gets him into Tier 3. To get him beyond that would require a lot more pop, and it doesn’t seem like that’s coming anytime soon. Ceiling: 6
Cody Morris, P, 26
With the flood of Guardians pitchers getting their debuts this year, Morris has become somewhat of the forgotten man. That’s a far cry from 2022 when he was a trendy preseason sleeper in fantasy baseball that ended up having a delayed debut in September due to injury. An injury again delayed his 2023 start with Morris now just getting into Minor League rehab starts. Given Cleveland’s current depth with Battenfield, Bibee, and Logan Allen all debuting and Civale and Sitcks McKenzie returning from injury, Morris may end up not coming back up this year or potentially end up in the bullpen. All that is to say that his hobby interest could easily be depressed in the short term due to that context.
Morris features a four-pitch mix of a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s, cutter, curveball, and changeup. All of his pitches have shown to be big swing and miss offerings. The main challenge has been the command, which is below average. Given the lack of health and innings along with command concerns, Morris lands in Tier 3. However, the strikeout upside and Cleveland pitching dev give him a higher ceiling than normal for a pitcher down in Tier 3. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Xzavion Curry, P, 24
On a second division team in need of pitching help, Curry would likely be given every opportunity to be a starter. For at least the short term in Cleveland, Curry likely is a bullpen piece with a random emergency start here or there. As of writing, all 13 of his appearances so far in 2023 have been in relief.
He features a low-90’s fastball that plays up due to spin and release point with a curveball being his second best pitch. He also has a slider and a changeup and he’s actually throwing his slider almost one third of the time this year as it’s proving to get better results than the curveball. The curveball still looks pretty, but MLB hitters are teeing off on it, to a .462 batting average.
At best, Curry ends up as a backend starter, but he likely continues down the path of a reliable but unspectacular bullpen arm. Ceiling: 2
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, 21
Way back in my 2021 Bowman Chrome Product Preview, I had Tovar as a Tier 3 player. I was also looking to get the Rockies (and the Twins for Emmanuel Rodriguez) in breaks as much as I could afford, but never ended up with a Tovar auto (them’s the breaks). All that is to say I saw the potential for Tovar’s Hobby interest. The reasoning hasn’t changed since 2021, and neither has the ranking although the Ceiling is higher than most Tier 3 players.
Tovar is a plus defender at shortstop that we have rated with a 70 Field and a 60 Arm, and I’ve seen nothing this year to disagree with that. Given the strength of his defense, he was brought up before his bat was ready and it showed at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. He’s an aggressive hitter which leads to low walk rates, and when your hitting against age-appropriate competition, you can make an impact with raw talent. Against MLB talent, it gets you eaten up and you don’t have the on base approach to provide the floor when over-matched. There have been some signs of life lately but I expect it will take a full season or two until we see whether Tovar’s offensive output can approach his defensive value.
At the low end, Tovar ends up along the lines of Andrelton Simmons, and at the highest end of outcomes, he ends up like Francisco Lindor. The likeliest outcome is probably somewhere in the middle, with Coors providing a bit of a false sense of offensive production. Ceiling: 8
Michael Toglia, 1B/OF, 24
I’ve felt this way for a while and have a buddy that regularly asks if my opinion has changed on Toglia, but the Rockies slugger is more of a Quad-A guy than an everyday regular.
There’s always been hope that his ability to smash baseballs in combination with a home field of Coors would overcome that concern, but Toglia just strikes out way too much for him to have that hoped for impact. If you’re dreaming, you can envision a 30+ home run bat in Colorado but you also have to dream that Toglia will drop his strikeout rate into the sub 30% range for that to happen. Fortunately Toglia plays a strong defensive first base, even if that’s not valued by most teams. That will give him an opportunity to be more than the Quad-A slugger.
Given he has the all-important-to-the-hobby power tool with a home field in Colorado, there’s a possibility of an outlier power season which gets him into Tier 3 (for now). Ceiling: 6
Tier None
None
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Ryan Kreidler, INF, 25
The quintessential utility infielder that can play anywhere on the infield but doesn’t possess any of the offensive tools to cement an everyday role. The defense plays, and that’s what will give Kreidler a spot on a major league roster. The hit, power, and speed all play about average. Strikeout rates trend towards the high twenties to low thirties percentage-wise, and if you're not hitting 20+ home runs, that’s pretty much a non-starter. Kriedler did hit 22 home runs in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, but has yet to repeat that, in part due to injury. Still, I don’t expect to see that repeated as a major leaguer, relegating him to a defense-first infield bench bat. Ceiling: 4
Kerry Carpenter, OF/DH, 25
Strong side platoon outfielder who was mostly off the radar prior to the pandemic. In 2021, he started turning his raw power into game power, and in 2022 took it to the next level, hitting 36 home runs between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors. That power comes at the price of a high strikeout rate, and often a low walk rate.
On a second-division team like the Tigers, Carpenter will get plenty of opportunities to show if he can figure it out and become an everyday regular. That could lead to some short term bumps when he does string together home run streaks, but ultimately the hit tool and lack of defense and speed limit him to a single tool player. Ceiling: 4
Donny Sands, C/DH, 27
You’re out of your element, Donny! (sorry, can’t help myself going to the Big Lebowksi callback whenever I see the name Donny). Backup catcher that got three late-game defensive replacement opportunities with the Phillies in September. He was then traded in the off-season along with Matt Vierling and Nick Maton to Detroit for Gregory Soto (and Kody Clemens). If you had asked me who the Phillies traded, I would have probably been able to remember Vierling and Maton, but there would have been no chance that I could have recalled Sands was in the deal.
Sands has built himself into a viable catcher option for a second division team. He’s not flashy, but he’s not going to hurt you either. There is a decent hit tool as he typically limits the strike outs, doesn’t chase much, and hits for a palatable average in the .250’s and up. Unfortunately, his patience plays more like extreme passivity than waiting for his pitch. There is a little bit of pop to the pull side - I’d like to see more, to be honest, given the frame. Until he does, there’s very little interest here for the hobby. Ceiling: 2
Brendon Davis, 3B/OF, 25
There was a brief moment prior to the 2022 season where Brendon Davis had some fantasy buzz in deeper leagues, and I will admit I was one of those who bought in. Fortunately, the price was minimal, so no real harm came of it.
The reason for that buzz was a jump in power output with 30 home runs across three levels for the Angels minor league system which shot him up Angels prospect lists. Since that 2021 explosion, things have come back to earth for Davis. The power-geared fly ball swing has been taken advantage of by opposing pitchers at both the Triple-A level as well as for the three games he had at the MLB level in 2022 for what it’s worth. Without a significant change, this looks like org depth or a bench bat on a second division team. Ceiling: 3
Houston Astros
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Yainer Diaz, C/DH, 24
Prior to reaching the end of 2022, Korey Lee was often seen as the catcher of the future in Houston. And from the perspective of the player who gets the most reps behind the dish, that may still be the case. But from an offensive outlook, Diaz leaped Lee and then some.
Diaz posted strong hit tool skills with double plus 90th percentile exit velocities in 2022. As with most natural bat to ball talents, while the strikeout rate is typically low, Yainer often will chase a bit too much and won’t walk at average or better rates. With having made the opening day roster, he’s playing about half the games and splitting that time behind the plate and at DH. He may also get some run at first base, but for now, Jose Abreu has that spot locked up simply given his vet presence and defense.
The data behind the top line stats for Diaz is pretty strong even if the results haven’t been. I’m still intrigued by his bat and giving him the benefit of the doubt that he plays that hybrid catcher/first base/designated hitter role in the future that should get him enough reps to accumulate stats to justify a Tier 3 ranking. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
David Hensley, INF. 27
During the pre-season, after Jose Altuve went down with his WBC injury, Hensley was the trendy pick to get the full time second base reps. Instead, Mauricio Dubón snatched the role and did not relinquish it. It didn’t help that Hensley didn’t have a multi-hit game after Opening Day, and he was eventually sent down when Altuve rejoined the active roster.
Hensley has some intriguing skills, but ultimately the hit tool and approach aren’t strong enough to get him a future everyday role. The power is there along with the exit velocity, but he’s passive at the plate and struggles against high heat. At 6’6” tall, there’s long levers and it’s hard to see him covering up the holes already present in his swing.
An older player (27 years old) that will provide a good utility role with defensive versatility, some stolen base ability, and raw power. The ceiling is interesting, however the ranking is still a Tier None player until further positive results. Ceiling: 5
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Drew Waters, OF, 24
Years ago I was on the Drew Waters bandwagon as a potential every day power/speed outfielder. The power never really showed up, and he has yet to get his propensity for striking out under control.
There is still the potential to be an everyday outfielder with speed being the main factor of interest. The raw power could translate to game power and he could get to that 15 - 20 home run range. He could actually find some consistency in his approach and results, which we haven’t seen the past few years, probably in part due to injuries, changing organizations, and bouncing between Triple-A and the majors.
A bunch of “ifs”, but given his 2nd round draft pedigree and still being just shy of 25 years old, there could/should be some future growth. That is why I’ll have him in Tier 3. However, he has been trending towards a platoon or fourth outfielder the past few years and if that continues, he’s headed to Tier None fast. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Nate Eaton, 3B/OF, 26
Eaton is, at his best, a league average player that doesn’t hurt you in the speed or hit departments but won’t provide much power. He is defensively versatile with an elite arm, and that will continue to give him the opportunity to have a bench role at the MLB level. In his 44-game debut in 2022, he provided exactly that with a wRC+ of 101. However, 2023 didn’t go so well for Eaton at the MLB level with a -62 wRC+ (woof) and he’s been bounced back and forth to Triple-A, where he is currently plying his trade. Don’t see anything here worthy of Hobby interest. Ceiling: 2
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
None
TIer 2
Logan O’Hoppe, C, 23
It took me a while to buy in on O’Hoppe, but at this point I can no longer deny how strong of a future he has. I will be the first to admit that I did not understand the Angels giving up Brandon Marsh for O’Hoppe, but given the Angels’ theoretical depth at the outfield position and lack of catching depth in their upper minors, it seems to be a lot more of an even deal in hindsight.
O’Hoppe handles his duties behind the plate well even if he doesn’t have a standout, eye-popping tool back there. He’s a solid hitter who can hit some big flies to his pull side and has a really strong foundation regularly registering sub 20% strikeout rates and double-digit walk rates. There is the rare hit plus power catcher potential here.
It really is a shame that he went down with a shoulder injury that will keep him out a majority of the year. Not currently being talked about because of the IL-stint that will likely impact his hobby value in the short term, I have come around to O’Hoppe being regularly considered a top 10 catcher in the game in the future. That’s enough for me to bump him up to Tier 2 as a long-term ranking. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Liván Soto, SS, 22
A defense-first shortstop that will throw in low double digits steals, Soto is missing the main tools of Hobby interest. There is single-digit power and the hit tool has been subpar outside of a 2022 Double-A run where he put it all together with a .281 batting average. Soto, like most shortstops, won’t have a problem sliding over to second or third base should the need arise, but that puts even more pressure on his hit tool. Given his smaller frame, I don’t see a power burst in his future, which likely limits him to a light hitting regular or a bench-style utility player. Ceiling: 2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
James Outman, OF, 26
Must…resist…cliche jokes…Another player I was slow to come around on. However, sometimes profile concerns can co-exist with positive statistical results.
The profile is a lefty power/speed outfielder with a ton of strikeouts due to some passivity as well as trying to pull everything in sight. Just like his 2022 debut, Outman started off hotter than the sun, but has really struggled since the calendar ticked over to May. The league has adjusted, and it remains to be seen if he can adjust back. Running a 35% strikeout rate isn’t a recipe for long term playing time on a competitive Dodgers roster, so he’ll need to figure it out sooner rather than later. One might say he’s been regularly getting out, man (I could only resist for so long and Ihave to assume this joke is NOT original).
Outman can be a 25-25 guy for a highly collectible team in the spotlight, but I still fear his strikeout propensity. A high-risk and potentially high-reward Tier 2 ranking. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Yusniel Diaz, OF, 26
At the time, Diaz was the headliner in the trade for Manny Machado in 2018. The Dodgers' major off-season signing in 2015, Diaz signed for $15.5M as a highly sought International Prospect. After getting a single-game debut for the Orioles in 2022, he was out-righted off the roster and signed to a minor league deal by the Dodgers, coming back full circle.
There was a hit and speed centerfielder vision for Diaz, but injuries have severely limited his development and potentially impacted his swing path. Approaching 27 years old, Diaz is back down in Double-A and playing relatively well there against kids much younger than him. The main hope is the Dodgers can work their development magic and turn Diaz back into a hit-tool everyday outfielder, but at this point that appears to be a low-percentage outcome. More than likely he’s a fourth or fifth outfielder, whether that’s the Dodgers, or more likely, on a second division team. Ceiling: 3
Miami Marlins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Max Meyer, P, 24
One of the top prospect pitchers in 2022, Meyer got his debut in July. Unfortunately in his second start, after two-thirds of an inning, he came out with an arm issue which led to Tommy John surgery.
If the injury didn’t happen, there was a chance that he would have been in the conversation as a top 40 pitcher given how devastating his slider is. It was potentially the best slider in the minors last year, and he pairs it with an above-average mid-90s four-seam fastball. His third pitch is a good-but-not-yet-great changeup. There has always been a discussion that Meyer has more than your average bullpen risk given his smaller stature and being more of a two-pitch pitcher. However, relief pitchers are a dime a dozen while SP1/SP2’s don’t grow on trees. As such, Meyer should get every opportunity to reach that potential, which isn’t that far out of the realm of possibility.
There is significant risk with the injury and bullpen concerns, but the potential is too good to not have Meyer at least in the Tier 2 realm. Ceiling: 9
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Jordan Groshans, 3B, 23
There is plenty of prospect fatigue with Groshans, and rightly so. All of the hopes for power development with Groshans have not come to fruition. Given the lack of speed and just average defensive skills pushing him off of shortstop, the former highly thought of prospect has trended towards a one-note player that no longer looks like an everyday player. So far in 2023 he has a 67 wRC+ - not great, and there aren’t many positives right now. In an org that has issues developing hitters, there isn’t much hope for righting the ship even if he’s only 23 years-old. Ceiling: 4
Charles Leblanc, UTIL, 27
An org depth type of player that was acquired via the minor league Rule 5 draft back in 2021, Leblanc debuted in 2022.
While he put up just over league average results, he did that with a 31% strikeout rate. There’s a bit of hit, steal, and power in the profile, but all are average at best. He’s versatile enough defensively to fill in at second, third, first, and left field.
He was passed through waivers in the off-season for the Jean Segura signing and outrighted to Triple-A after going unclaimed. That tells you what the league currently thinks of the 27-year-old utility man. That same lack of interest should follow through to the Hobby as well. Ceiling: 2
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Garrett Mitchell, OF, 24
2020 1st round pick that always tantalizes but has yet to reach some of his supporters pretty lofty expectations. Opinions are highly varied from a future five tool stud to a platoon outfielder. Unfortunately, after a couple of highlight home runs to begin the season with the big league squad, Mitchell injured his shoulder and went under the knife, ending his season.
I don’t think there is any doubt that Mitchell has the defensive chops and the speed to cover three of the five tools of the trade. Questions center around his ability to turn his hard contact into home runs rather than worm burners and if he can tame the swing and miss. In his small sample of MLB at bats in 2022 and 2023, the ground ball rate got a lot better, but the strikeouts went up astronomically. It was a small sample, so it’s hard to put much weight in either change.
Mitchell has the prospect pedigree as a former first round pick and a strong floor. I considered putting him into Tier 3 because I am on the side that questions if he will get the ball in the air enough to get to a Tier 2 level of power, but he’s still young and he really looked like he was starting to figure out at least that part of his approach. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Brice Turang, 2B, 23
With Luis Urias getting injured in the World Baseball Classic in the lead up to the season, an opportunity opened up for a full time role for Turang with the big league squad.
The 2018 first round pick of the Brewers, Turang is a glove first player that is smart on the base paths and in theory has above average contact skills. The challenge so far for Turang has been the quality of contact - exit velocity and hard contact rates have not been good. While typically running sub 20% strikeout rates in the minors, he’s up over 26% in 2023 at the majors. There’s not been a whole lot to hang your hat on for Turang’s first major taste of MLB action outside of the stolen bases and the glove-work.
I still believe he will get back to that low strikeout rate and high walk rate while spraying the ball all over the field, basically an above-average offensive player with plus defense. Along with his draft and prospect pedigree, that is why I will keep him in Tier 3 as I do think he is a future everyday player with some level of impact. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
None
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Louie Varland, P, 25
With a bevy of rotation injuries, the Twins have been more than happy to get quite positive results from Varland in a starting role this year. There’s a bit of playing over his head type situation, but for now his results are as a mid-rotation starter, justifying a Tier 3 ranking. The main issues are the hard contact and ugly home run to fly ball rate. Some of the advanced pitching metrics look like Varland is getting a bit lucky, so it’s something worth monitoring.
He throws a four seamer, cutter, slider, and changeup. Everything but the slider rank highly in CSW metrics which helps explain a lot of the success. Add in that he has been really good limiting walks due to his above average command and the bullpen risk that has been there in the past now seems like a thing of the past. He may end up being more of an SP5 if the home run rate doesn’t normalize, but if it does, he’ll cement that role as an SP3 and easily worthy of this ranking. Ceiling: 6
Matt Wallner, OF, 25
A power-mashing corner outfielder, Wallner has that three true outcomes look and feel. It could lead to a Quad-A slugger scenario, but there are enough opportunities out there, even if it’s not on the Twins, for him to get a starting job for a second division team. It feels eerily reminiscent of his former teammate and now Oakland Athletic Brent Rooker.
Wallner is a bigger dude at 6’5” which drives a lot of his contact issues given the long levers. It also drives a lot of the juice in his bat. He could easily be the guy hitting .220 with 30+ home runs with a full time job. That power and OBP potential is what keeps him in Tier 3, unlike others with a possible Quad-A tag, but there is a ton of risk here. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Simeon Woods Richardson, P, 22
Now on his third team since being drafted out of the Texas prep ranks, there are growing questions about whether Woods Richardson is a long-term starter.
Possessing the size and arsenal that would lead you to believe he should end up in a big league rotation, the velocity and command haven’t taken the expected steps forward to reinforce that belief. His fastball sits in the low 90’s with an above average changeup. He’ll throw a curveball and slider for his other secondaries, both of which flash as effective but lack consistency. His 2023 minor league season so far has been one to forget as he’s started nine games, has an 0-5 record, less than eight strikeouts per nine, and a 7.38 ERA.
The trend towards more of a swingman role at the MLB level continues, relegating him to Tier None until further notice. Ceiling: 4
Ronny Henriquez, P, 22
Part of the Twins return for Mitch Garver, Henriquez had bullpen concerns given his size and repertoire. The Twins bounced him back and forth between the bullpen and starting in 2022, but eventually the Twins transitioned him to the bullpen full time as of this year. The slider is the out pitch, and the fastball doesn’t have enough movement to work as a starter. As a reliever, he can use it as a setup pitch. There is a chance for a high leverage role at some point if the fastball can become more effective. Until then, he’s just a middle reliever with no Hobby interest. Ceiling: 3
New York Mets
Tier 1
Francisco Álvarez, C, 21
Regularly found in the top 20 if not the top 10 of prospect lists heading into the season, Álvarez is a power hitting catcher playing for one of the most collectable teams in baseball. Questions about his defense behind the plate have proven to be unfounded so far in the 2023 season as the Mets went so far as to DFA their defense-first backstop Tomas Nido with Omar Narvaez recently returning from injury.
The pull-side plus power for Álvarez is the headlining tool, and in the Hobby, that’s what matters most. He’s not getting cheated on any swings and has 8 home runs in less than 40 games so far. He’s definitely not going to steal many, if any bases, but that’s more the rule than the exception for the catcher position. The hit tool is where the biggest concern still lies. Álvarez typically runs 24% - 26% strikeout rates, which aren’t great, but are acceptable for power hitters, and he’s currently at 24%. He regularly posts plus walk rates, at a minimum of 12% if not plenty better. However, in his roughly 40 games this year, that number has been cut in half at 6%. The biggest negative are the contact rates - hard contact, overall contact, outside the zone contact, zone contact, swing rates, etc. are all in the bottom third of the league or worse so far in 2023.
Álvarez may take a while to get his batting average to better than league average, but his 30 home run power should more than make up for it. The prospect pedigree and team context are the final pieces of the puzzle to push him over the line into Tier 1 for me. Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
Kodai Senga, P, 30
There were some questions after signing about whether Senga was going to be able to start or would he actually end up in the bullpen. Those questions look to have been answered as Senga is providing SP3-level results.
Senga’s arsenal starts with a four seam fastball in the mid-90’s, but it is really highlighted by his ghost forkball (classified as a splitter by Statcast). The ghost fork gets a 25% swinging strike rate and looks near impossible to hit. He’ll also throw a cutter and a slider, with the cutter being particularly effective at getting called strikes. Senga has one of the best strikeout rates in the MLB at 29% while having one of the worst walk rates at 14%.
Senga looks like a really good signing by the Mets, especially given their rotation’s health concerns to start the season. Add in the international attraction and a highly collectible team and it gives Senga that extra boost into Tier 2. Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Mark Vientos, 3B, 23
Every time a trade rumor comes up with the Mets trading prospects for MLB talent, Mets fans are wish casting Mark Vientos as the player to be traded. He doesn’t really have an obvious spot on the roster moving forward with Brett Baty the future third baseman and Pete Alonso locked in at first base. There’s an argument to be made that Vientos is the third piece in a three-man rotation of first base/third base/designated hitter, and Vientos has shown enough growth to handle both of the fielding locations. However, the hit tool continues to be the main concern holding Vientos back from being an everyday starter. And the Mets fans know it. And so does the majority of the organizations in MLB. So unfortunately the days of trading away Jarred Kelenic and Pete Crow-Armstrong type talents to get MLB talent aren’t going away.
Vientos has 25+ home run power, so there is a tantalizing Hobby skill set foundation. Part of the problem is his contact and ground ball rates. Typically living in the 45% - 50% ground ball rate is not what you want to see from a power hitter. Strikeout rates have also generally been below average, usually hovering in that 30% range. Vientos is still just 23 years old and has decent prospect pedigree as a former 2nd round draft pick. Add that to the power hitting and collectable team context and it gets him into Tier 3 with a fair amount of risk as well as ceiling. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
José Butto, P, 25
Not a ton has changed since I last dove into Butto for 2021 Bowman Chrome and had him pegged as a Tier None ranking.
His fastball is still a low to mid-90’s offering which he fills up the zone with and pairs it with a plus changeup (40% whiff rate) generate swing and miss. The curveball and slider are just average at best and limit his upside to just a back-end starter/bulk inning reliever. The curveball data actually looks good, but it’s more because he throws it so infrequently that it fools most hitters when it does come at them. When they do see it they hit it really hard, to the tune of an Average EV of 96.5 mph.
This year the results have not been there so far, further capping any short term Hobby interest in Butto. Ceiling: 2
New York Yankees
Tier 1
Anthony Volpe, SS, 22
If you haven’t heard the Jeter comparisons, have you been living in a box? It’s not fair to Volpe, but I can see why they are being made as Volpe is a highly touted prospect at Jeter’s former position with an engaging personality to match. Along with Jordan Walker, and perhaps even more surprisingly, Volpe made the Yankees opening day roster as their starting shortstop.
Volpe does everything well. He can hit, he’ll put a decent amount of balls over the fence, and he steals bases on the regular. While not the strongest arm, he is a competent shortstop and has natural baseball instincts at the position (remind you of anyone that formerly played this position for the Yankees?). So far this year it’s been a mixed bag. He’s stolen 13 bases and hit 9 home runs in just over two months of his debut season at the young age of 22. He’s walking at a decent clip, but he’s striking out over 30% of the time. His quality of contact is also lagging, typically average to below average depending on the various metrics you look at.
Like Walker, Volpe was a Top 10 prospect coming into the season and he is on THE most collectable team in baseball, if not perhaps trading cards in general. There’s enough positives that you hope the Yankees let him continue to develop and grow against MLB-caliber pitching. As far as the Hobby goes, Carroll might be the strongest performing rookie in the product at the moment, but Anthony Volpe is likely to be the most in demand rookie in the product. Ceiling: 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Oswaldo Cabrera, OF, 24
My opinion really hasn’t changed much on Cabrera since my 2022 Bowman write up on him. He had the Yankees bump and was a hot seller on release, so you have to be aware of that again with his base rookie card coming out in this release.
I saw Cabrera as a bench bat, fourth outfielder type and still think that’s ultimately his career path. There’s some power and some speed, but the hit tool isn’t good enough and there isn’t enough power and speed to counterbalance that. Back in 2022 Bowman I was thinking of Cabrera being closer to Tier 2 than Tier None. With how he’s performed since debuting, he’s slid down that Tier 3 scale - he hasn’t played well enough to not end up in a platoon with Jake Bauers for goodness sake. Cabrera is just 24 years old, so he’s not close to Tier None territory yet. Part of that is the Yankees bump, and part of that is the original evaluation that he could turn into a power/speed threat. I just don’t see that happening in the short term as he continues to be mediocre with the bat in his hand. Ceiling: 6
Tier None
None
Oakland Athletics
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jordan Diaz, 2B, 22
One of a few players on the cusp of Tier 2 and Tier 3, there are a few reasons why I tipped the scales towards Tier 3.
First, he plays for the Anemic A’s (I assume this has been used before, but I couldn’t tell you where, so like any good content producer, I am going to take credit for coming up with it). Second, because he’s got a plus hit tool, the walk rate is miniscule, regularly in the 3% - 7% range. Third, he regularly posts above average to poor ground ball rates, impacting his ability to get to his above average power. Finally, he doesn’t really have a good defensive fit and has essentially been thrown to the wolves at second base. If he doesn’t make significant growth with the glove, he’s in line for a future DH role.
The argument for Diaz is that he is a data darling. He came in as the 22nd rated hitting in our 2022 Data Driven rankings for all of minor league baseball, highlighted by double plus 90th percentile exit velocities. The only rating below plus or better was the chase rate, which correlates strongly with his lack of walks. The hit/power combo is one of the better Hobby formulas and Diaz could deliver that - so far in a small sample at the MLB level, he has yet to do that. Ceiling: 7
Esteury Ruiz, OF, 24
To say Ruiz’s 2022 minor league season was bananas would be an understatement (is there a different fruit that’s even crazier than bananas, like pineapples or something?). A BABIP-fueled season with unexpected pop led to a .332/.447/.526 triple slash with 16 home runs and 85(!) stolen bases over 114 games minor league games in 2022.
Fast forward to 2023 and the reality of playing against MLB-level pitching as well as in the cavernous corpse of the Oakland Coliseum (I could care less what random company has the naming rights, it will always be the Coliseum to me) has returned Ruiz to essentially what we thought he was prior to the eye-popping breakout. That’s a low walk, low strikeout speedster with minimal pop limited to center field. The speed still plays as a near-elite tool and that gets him into Tier 3 since he likely has a full time job on a roster that is probably worse than some minor league rosters. He will easily get to 60 stolen bases if healthy, and if he gets close to 80, there will be some Hobby interest just because of that. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Shintaro Fujinami, P, 29
One of three Japanese-born imports in 2023, Fujinami was the least heralded and has had the least amount of success so far. Fujinami was a very successful NPB pitcher in his early years, but then inconsistency struck and he struggled throughout the last six or so years. Off the back of a good 2022 season, the A’s gave Fujinami a multi-year deal that was a bit surprising given the team’s recent approach to spending money on anything (players, staff, stadium, you name it).
It was not set in stone whether Fujinami would line up as a starter or bullpen arm. The A’s gave the starting role shot a thing, and after four games in April, basically said “Nevermind.” Fujinami has been pitching out of the bullpen ever since in various roles while again being wildly inconsistent. The results are not good, and there is very little to hang your Hobby hat on other than some mild international player type of interest. Ceiling: 3
Ken Waldichuk, P, 25
Part of the return for Frankie Montas at the trade deadline in 2022, Waldichuk was viewed as a potential mid-rotation starter and one of the better pieces in that package.
He’s got a four pitch mix of average to above average pitches. He has a low to mid-90’s four seam fastball that he throws half the time with a slider as his best secondary with big time giffable (is this a word? Can I get Pitching Ninja to weigh in here?) sweep. His changeup also flashes as effective and generates a fair amount of whiffs and strikes. The curveball is a distant, little-used fourth offering. The results so far for Waldichuk have been bad (welcome to Oakland!). So bad that the A’s have moved him to the bullpen in a middle reliever role. The main culprit has been the fastball, which was a promising pitch, but so far has gotten torched with batters hitting .345 against it.
The Hobby Ceiling is still there, but the results up to this point have pushed Waldichuk out of any possible short term Hobby relevancy. Ceiling: 5
Conner Capel, OF, 26
Back in 2017 as a 20 year-old for Cleveland’s Single-A affiliate, Capel hit 22 home runs, leading to some thoughts that he could be a future everyday corner outfielder. Since then, he hasn’t hit more than 14 home runs in a season and is now on his third organization.
Coming into 2023, I didn’t think much of him, but he got off to a hot start and I thought maybe there is a full-time everyday regular, even if that was on a second division team. Looking at it a bit more, it seems that may have been heavily BABIP driven as his strikeout rate was almost at 30%. Reality set in and just after the calendar page was turned over to May, Capel was sent down to Triple-A where he is currently at.
Capel is basically an average hitter with average to below average power, can get 10-15 steals, and play a competent corner outfield. Essentially a fourth/fifth outfielder type at peak and an up and down option for a bad team at his current stage of development. Ceiling: 2
Freddy Tarnok, P, 24
Part of the package the A’s received in the three-team deal that sent Sean Murphy to the Braves, Tarnok is an interesting pitcher for real and fantasy baseball back-end starter/middle inning reliever. If he can stick in a rotation, there is very nice strikeout upside which is what we look for in fantasy baseball.
A plus fastball is paired with above average changeup, slider, and curveball that all have whiff potential. The biggest challenge is below average command, hence the bullpen risk and Tier None ranking. Since he’s not pitched in 2023 due to unspecified injuries, it’s basically a TBD right now on how he is progressing. Ceiling: 5
Philadelphia Phillies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Bailey Falter, P, 26
I believe the only rookie in the product that debuted in 2021, Falter is the gif brought to life of “Bro, I’m straight up not having a good time” meme.
He’s pitched in eight games and has seven losses. Even in games where he has given up 2 or fewer earned runs (three times this year), he’s ended up with the loss or no decision. He was eventually sent down in mid-May as Ranger Suarez returned from an off-season injury to claim his spot in the rotation.
Falter has a high-80’s/low-90’s four seamer with a collection of below average secondaries with the curveball being the one he throws the most. None of his pitchers are getting much swing and miss at the MLB level. He is an SP 6/7 swingman org depth type pitcher that is probably too good for Triple-A but not good enough for a first division MLB team. Ceiling: 3
Dalton Guthrie, OF, 27
A bench outfielder on second division teams, Guthrie can put the bat on the ball and will limit strike outs, but doesn’t take many walks. A former middle infielder, he’s brought a lot of that defensive ability to the outfield, giving him an opportunity to get future opportunities at bench roles at the MLB level. Speed and power are generally below average despite an unexpected showing in 2022 in those regards. Nothing really here for the Hobby, especially as he’s already 27 years old. Ceiling: 3
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Ji Hwan Bae, 2B/OF, 23
Double plus speed gives Bae that loud carrying tool to boost him into a Tier 3 ranking. He can hit just enough to provide that opportunity to utilize that speed with a swing geared towards putting the ball on the ground at an almost 60% rate and scooting down the line. Given that approach, the power is below average and I doubt we regularly if ever see double digit home runs, putting a cap on his Hobby Ceiling. Defensively he’s got the glove but not the arm, so even if he feels like a defensively versatile utility type, it’s relatively restricted to second base, center, and left field. Ceiling: 5
Luis Ortiz, P, 24
The Pirates version of Luis Ortiz (fantasy owners have learned this the hard way, including myself, that there is an active Phillies version) is a high octane starting pitcher that can regularly get his fastball into the high-90’s with good arm-side tail. He mixes in a slider about a third of the time that he uses to attack the back foot of left-handed batters or get chases away from right handers. Not in his scouting report, but Statcast is tracking a sinker that is differentiated from the four seamer but lives in the same velocity band. He has a less effective changeup that he doesn’t throw more than 15% of the time, more of a change of pace than anything.
Ortiz has not performed well at the MLB level when looking into the data. Poor strikeout rates, walk rates, hard contact rates, etc. The only thing he’s been doing well is getting a high ground ball rate north of 50%. There’s a mid-rotation Tier 2 starter here if everything falls into place. At just 24 years old, it hasn’t yet, so coupling that with a less collectable team and some bullpen risk pushes him into Tier 3. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
None
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Eguy Rosario, INF, 23
Rosario has been on that borderline between Tier 3 and Tier None for me since I dove into his profile for 2021 Bowman Chrome.
On the one hand, he continues to produce results and show improvements every year. On the other hand, there are no standout tools and the most likely outcome is as a utility player. He’ll do a little bit of everything - decent average, pop, stolen bases, and defense.
Don’t be fooled by the 22 Triple-A home runs in 2022 as that came in the hitter-friendly PCL. In the scenario that Eguy gets a full time role and puts up a .280 batting average with 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases at the top of a competitive San Diego lineup, he is easily a Tier 3 player if not a bit more. I think that’s a low likelihood outcome, however, and it’s not happening this year due to a broken ankle in the off-season. Ceiling: 6
Luis Liberato, OF, 27
Originally a Mariners prospect that began his pro career all the way back in 2013, Liberato has essentially drifted into non-prospect territory since 2020 or so. He’s known for his defense and throwing arm while providing potential league average offensive tools. Like Eguy, don’t be fooled by the .261 average and 20 home runs he put up in Triple-A in 2022 for the El Paso Chihuahuas of the PCL. At this point the 27 year old is org depth more than anything else. Ceiling: 3
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Ford Proctor, 2B/C, 26
Acquired from the Rays at the trade deadline due to a 40-man roster crunch, the Giants picked up a Farhan Zaidi staple in a multi-eligible, fringe player. Even better, he can play some catcher, which seems to be a target of the Giants, who went back to that same well in the off-season Rule 5 draft with Blake Sabol (catcher/outfielder).
Beyond Proctor’s positional versatility (he’ll play second, third, catcher, and shortstop in a pinch), he is a patient hitter that grinds out at bats. He regularly run plus walk rates in the low to mid teens. That approach will put him behind in counts, especially against more advanced pitching. His strikeout rates jumped into the 26% - 30% range in Double-A and Triple-A. However, in the first two months of the Triple-A season, they have dropped back down to 18%, giving some hope of a viable hit tool that most thought was there prior to 2021. Not much speed and power will likely never get beyond 10 to 15 home runs. If the strikeout rate stays under 20% there is the possibility of an everyday role. He’ll still need to figure out how to get more lift as his ground ball rate has regularly not been good. Until all that is figured out, he’ll be more org depth than an MLB piece. Ceiling: 3
Bryce Johnson, OF, 27
A classic fourth/fifth outfielder type that has the defensive chops for center field and will steal plenty of bases while not being a negative in the batter’s box. Johnson knows how to take a walk, has acceptable strikeout rates, and can put the ball over the fence here or there. An average hit tool, fringe power, plus speed, and plus defense is a nice to have piece on the bench or ready to call up as needed. But there really isn’t much fantasy or Hobby value to find. Ceiling: 2
St. Louis Cardinals
Tier 1
Jordan Walker, OF/3B, 21
Dynamic future 40 home run bats don’t grow on trees. Walker was a consensus top 5 prospect coming into the year and occasionally a top overall prospect depending on where you looked and in what context. It was somewhat surprising that Jordan Walker made the team out of Spring Training, but if you had been listening to those in the know, including our own Matt Thompson, it became very apparent as Spring Training went on that Walker was headed back to St. Louis with the big league squad.
Walker has always had power and he’s got the physical stature at 6’5” and 220 pounds to easily see why. When he was taken in the first round of the 2020 MLB draft, no one doubted his power - the concern was if the Cardinals could develop his hit tool (more on that later). Many believed those questions were answered as he crushed Single-A, High-A, and Double-A in 2021 and 2022. Walker was also stealing bases at a decent clip, but given his size, there’s an expectation that speed won’t be part of his game as he ages. On the defensive side, given the roadblocks for the infield power-hitting positions (first base and third base with Goldschmidt and Arenado), Walker was shifted to the outfield and is adequate out there for the moment. He should grow into the position and has the arm of a third baseman, so that is definitely a benefit to being able to play either corner outfield position.
Walker started off hot with 12 consecutive games with a hit to begin his MLB career, tying the major league record. Walker hits the ball hard (35% of the time), but he is often pounding the ball into the ground at an almost league-worst rate of 64%. The Cardinals obviously identified that and attempted to get Walker to work on getting the ball in the air more. Walker was eventually demoted to Triple-A to continue to re-work his approach and it wasn’t that successful. So Walker decided to get back to his old approach, which was to hit the ball hard and not worry about launch angle. Success started to follow and he got called back up to the bigs in the last week. Questions will still persist on this ground ball rate along with a few other concerns (his MLB walk rates have not been good even if his MiLB ones were), but ultimately talent rises to the top. And Jordan Walker is easily a top talent in the game and a future star. Ceiling: 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Alec Burleson, OF, 23
The Burly man was in consideration for Tier 2 on the strength of the hit tool alone, and with how strong his bat to ball contact skills are, he will get more than his fair share of home runs as well.
The main concern I have is that he will get used more as a strong side platoon bat given the Cardinals outfield depth and his lack of athleticism. He’s not a great defender, in part to not being a great runner. In the Cardinals organization, we’ve already seen that not doing the little things will get you in the dog house, and not playing high-end defense could qualify for the dog house in the crazy world of Oli Marmol. His physical composition is also concerning from an aging curve - his longevity, at least in the outfield, may not be the typical length, impacting his ability to accumulate stats.
The argument for Burleson is that he will hit .300 with 25+ home runs for a collectible team that should be competitive on a yearly basis, keeping him in some form of a spotlight. I will admit that this Tier ranking is on the lower end of Burleson’s outcomes and is influenced by his lack of results so far at the MLB level. The Hobby Ceiling ranking does compensate for that a bit because he could be that hit/power beast at some point in the future. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
None
Texas Rangers
Tier 1
Josh Jung, 3B, 25
I have a personal bias when it comes to Josh Jung as I’ve sent him his own baseball card in the past. So it’s worth noting my ranking and evaluation may have a tint of rose-colored glasses. One of the main challenges for Jung in the recent past has been staying healthy, but in 2023, knock on wood,
Jung has been able to play a full complement of games for one of the best offenses in baseball. The results have been fantastic and what you would hope for in a hit and power corner infielder. As of writing, he’s batting .294/.343/.518 with 12 home runs. Even if he slows down a bit, a .280 hitter with 25 home runs in his first full season at the age of 25 would be a big success. Not everything is positive as his strikeout rate is 28% and his walk rate is just 7% while he is sporting a pretty high BABIP. The majority of the data is positive despite those poor strikeout/walk rates - hard contact, exit velocity, and barrel rate are above average to plus. Same story with xStats generally being positive.
Regression could easily happen, but I’m enjoying the ride and sticking him in my Tier 1. Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Bubba Thompson, OF, 24
The speed demon debuted in 2022 to much fantasy fanfare as he was a source of late speed, which wasn’t the easiest thing to come by in previous seasons. In 2023, the landscape is different for stolen bases. With every other deficiency in Thompson’s game present, he has become an afterthought. Apparently, that was the case for the Rangers as well with a June demotion for Thompson.
Thompson doesn’t make enough contact, doesn’t walk enough, and strikes out way too much for someone that needs to get on base to utilize his most valuable tool. He essentially falls into that pinch runner and Triple-A outfield depth category as he’s hard to even consider having a regular MLB bench role. Ceiling: 4
Washington Nationals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Joey Meneses,1B/DH, 31
A 30 year old rookie doesn’t often get a ton of pub, but Meneses kind of came “out of nowhere” after stints in the NPB and plenty of innings logged in Mexican and Caribbean leagues.
Prior to his 2018 stint with the Phillies Triple-A Reading squad, Meneses was mainly a hit over power first base/corner outfielder. In 2018, he launched 23 home runs and the power has continued to be the primary weapon ever since. He’s actually been able to maintain pretty decent averages, but there's definite BABIP luck behind that for the most part. Meneses keeps his strikeouts low, but doesn’t balance it out with a high walk rate. He also has backed up a high ground ball rate in his 2022 debut (49%) with an even higher rate so far in 2023 (54%). Accordingly, his home run production has cratered to just two blasts so far. I would be remiss not to mention how he was a key cog for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, getting some good TV time and upping his profile.
A somewhat fraudulent high batting average for a power hitter on a bad team restricted to a 1B/DH role at 31 years old isn’t one that typically drives much Hobby interest. However, I have a feeling that Meneses will have a fair amount of collectors in the short term given his story, high batting average, and power potential, which is why I have him in Tier 3, at least in the short term. Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Stone Garrett, OF, 27
A 2014 draft pick, Garrett has fallen off of prospect radars since probably 2020-ish.
He’s a Quad-A slugger (25 home runs in 2021 and 32 home runs in 2022) that’s currently getting some part-time run on a second division team. A lot of that continued employment at the moment is heavily BABIP driven - .391 at the time of writing, which is way above expectation and unsustainable. Interestingly, he’s not pulling the ball at all, which is usually what power hitters need to do to rack up the home run totals to keep them relevant. And as you would expect, that lack of pull-side hits has limited Garrett to one home run so far this year. That’s not going to work, especially as the BABIP plummets. Couple that with a 32% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate, which are relatively standard for Garrett, and you can see all the hallmarks of a Quad-A slugger. Ceiling: 5
Israel Pineda, C, 23
Backup catcher that has more power over hit and is adequate but not great behind the plate. Has been injured the majority of 2023, first with a finger and now with an oblique, so we really haven’t seen him much outside of a couple of rehab starts.
He did show up pretty well in our 2022 Data Driven Rankings, so there is an outside chance his hit tool can continue to develop and he can find an every day role. Until then, Keibert Ruiz has the position in Washington locked down (even if he hasn’t been great this year) and Pineda will be relegated to a backup role and a Tier None Hobby ranking. Ceiling: 4