There’s a lot of ways to frame a list like this. Some of these guys have cards in various releases, be it Elite Extra Edition, minor league releases, or base cards in Bowman. But all of these guys lack that One. Big. Card. The prospect card that is clearly above all - the Bowman autograph. It’s just as easy to call this a wish list for 2023 Bowman Chrome. That’s the subset of players we’re looking at here. Players who, for the hobby, are still prospects in 2023. It excludes 2023 draftees who will get their own release in the last month of the year. So yes, all the 2023 J15 signees are here.
This time I went team by team, picking at least one player, usually a few more, that have Hobby Potential (HP), and gave a 1-10 rating of each. Everyone likes a number – it’s just a general idea. And since I’m picking the top guys, no one’s a bad hobby prospect. Some teams may have a few more decent prospects (HP 5’s or so) that I didn’t include for the sake of brevity.
Sometimes I wonder how sane I am. Most of the players high on this list are very young, with limited experience. Analyzing such small samples is absolutely dangerous work - but I say bring it on. I’ve never cared about being wrong, and I think I write with enough skeptic ambiguity for everyone to understand that it’s all a massive crapshoot with these guys.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Jansel Luis - His DSL performance didn’t stand out to me, looking for Hobby names last year, considering his sub-.100 ISO. But this year his excellent bat-to-ball skills have scaled spectacularly with added power - enough to merit a promotion to Low-A after only 24 games in the Complex. He’s one of the biggest risers in the low minors for any system. HP: 8
Gian Zapata - There’s a lot of holes – he’s one of the freest swingers in the DSL - but being the DBacks top 2023 J15 and getting to as much game power as he’s getting to will always garner significant hobby interest. There's more than just being the ‘raw slugger’ archetype - there’s also a decent chance he retains enough athleticism to stick as a CF as he matures. HP: 6
Yu-Min Lin - He’s a small dude with just a low-90’s fastball, so it’s absolutely fair to doubt his projectability as a starter long-term. But he also has a plus change-up that he has mastery of using in conjunction with other pitches. If those ingredients fully pull together with consistency and he ends up with plus-command, he’s an excellent real-life prospect. Finesse arms don’t usually do well in the hobby, but if anyone can break that mold, I think it’s Lin. He’s one to keep an eye on as he recently was thrown into the fire at hitter-haven Amarillo. HP: 6
Cristopher Torin - Like Jansel Luis, Torin is an advanced hitter for his age and has reached Low-A at 18. The difference I see is that for now, though Torin’s hit might end up a little better than Luis, he’s showing no signs of significant power. Deyvison De Los Santos (after a nice rebound recently) , Demetrio Crisantes, and J.J D’Orazio also deserve mention and would be on this level for me. HP: 5
ATLANTA BRAVES
AJ Smith-Shawver – Not likely we see him in Bowman Chrome, but he’s still a prospect in hobby terms for 2023, so he belongs here. His breaking pitches are so advanced, especially for his age (20), that the Braves have given him sporadic shots to fill in their rotation. Of course command, especially of his fastball, is a work in progress, so he’s not a mainstay this year. The worst case scenario is that the Braves decide they need him this year, transition him to the bullpen, and he just sticks there. But he also has top-of-the-rotation upside in a very friendly hobby city, so that beats everything else for now. HP: 7
Luis Guanipa - As seven figure 2023 J15, Guanipa has pedigree. He also has 5-tool potential, buoyed by plus speed. Even better, he’s showing flashes of everything already in the DSL. Having experienced a 4-for-45 slump that stretched for 3 weeks on the calendar, it’s clear he’s not polished or consistent, but it’s quite clear that at his best the Braves have one of the best 2023 J15’s for the hobby here. HP: 7
Ethan Workinger - A prep UDFA signing from the 2020 draft class, Workinger remains a longshot to make a hobby impact. But improvements across the board offensively in 2023 make for an intriguing power profile with a hit tool that could develop just enough to make it to the majors as a corner OF. HP: 5
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Samuel Basallo - Back in 2021 Basallo was the Orioles top J15 signer for $1.5 MM, and he hasn’t slowed down since. The main question for the hobby is whether the Orioles keep him at catcher where he definitely has potential, or look to advance him more quickly for the sake of his bat. Because advancing quickly it is. He’s showing definite signs of the double-plus raw power he was supposed to have when he signed, and he’s also improved dramatically as a complete hitter. I’d put my money on him being a top 20 prospect for the Hobby this time next year. HP: 10
Aneudis Mordan - Another catcher, but this one is more likely to fully move off the position sometime soon. He’s also a complete flyer, as he repeated the DSL last year, then has made the most of his limited playing time this year at the Complex with an enormous power surge. He shouldn’t be on anyone’s radar yet, but for the hobby we have to dig a little deeper sometimes. HP: 5
BOSTON RED SOX
Yoelin Cespedes – The most important notes on Cespedes at this time is that he was the Red Sox top 2023 J15, and has played extremely well in the DSL. Those two things would make him a Top 10 2023 J15 if he’s in 2023 Bowman Chrome. The long term projection is closer to average-across the board, the most likely tool to jump being his hit. He’s already showing that may be the case with some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the league. HP: 7
Johanfran Garcia – Garcia seems likely to stick at catcher, so look elsewhere if you avoid collecting the position. He’s shown solid plate skills in both years as a pro but has really broken through with additional power this year, landing among the league leaders in several categories. If that continues, he could pass Brannon as a more complete prospect fairly easily. I’ve already moved him ahead by a nose. HP: 6
Brooks Brannon – Brannon was a 9th-Round prep last year signed for 3rd-Round money, with the promise of defense, arm, and power. They’re all coming through so far, in limited playing time. His hit tool is the biggest question mark, and it’s fair to wonder whether it will develop enough – but who knows, he’s less than 200 AB’s into his career! For now, Brannon is at Low-A because his receiving game is a little more advanced than Johanfran Garcia, but that development could flip. It’s silly to say this about players that are so far aways, but in hobby terms Brannon is the ceiling play, Garcia is the floor play. HP: 6
Johnfrank Salazar - Having just turned 20, in the hobby’s eyes Salazar is getting a little old for not having proven himself in full-season ball yet. But his bat-to-ball skill has always been there. It could definitely be that he simply mastered the Complex this year, but there was some significant emergent power before his promotion to Low-A as well. You could do worse as a flyer. HP: 5
CHICAGO CUBS
Angel Cepeda - A plus athlete who’s really still working on translating everything he has to the diamond, the Cubs’ $1 MM 2023 J15 has been net-neutral in the DSL. But the seven-figure pedigree means he gets a mention here. HP: 5
Yonathan Perlaza - I could mention Michael Arias or Daniel Palencia here too, but I’ll give the nod to the close-to-the-majors hitter over the pitchers. And that’s the only reason. Lack of any above-average tools means it’s likely that Perlaza is just a 4th OF-type. But his increased production (backed by a massive increase in LD%) at AAA this year gives hope that he could sneak into being a second division regular as a ceiling. HP: 4
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Abraham Nunez - The White Sox spread their money around in the 2023 J15 period but Nunez was one of their leading signers at 700k. Nunez ticks two boxes the hobby likes. He has a massive (6’4”) athletic frame that portends power in the coming years, and he’s the son of a major leaguer (of the same name). Add in that his feel to hit has been fantastic in the DSL, and there’s explosive potential here, especially in the hobby landscape. HP: 7
Ryan Burrowes - He’s very raw, there’s a lot of miss, but when he connects he hits the ball hard consistently. He’s a good defender and has an athletic build that should retain speed as he grows into it, so if he figures out how to make more contact, will ascend quickly. HP: 6
Cristian Mena - It’s been a rough, inconsistent year for Mena where he’s been both hit hard and struggled with command. But through it all there’s definite positives: he’s only 20, has held his own the entire year at AA, taken on a larger workload than ever before, maintained his high K%, and shown flashes of having two plus pitches. So through the hobby lens, there’s still a lot of upside and potential to reach it at a young age in the majors. HP: 5
CINCINNATI REDS
Edwin Arroyo - Sure, he has cards in 2021 Bowman Draft – but he has no autos, and this is a player we really want autos of. Arroyo hasn’t been as productive as we’d like this year, but he’s been playing SS at A+ as a teenager all year, something no one else can claim. He’s done a great job of playing within himself and to his strengths - he absolutely looks like he belongs. There’s definitely still 5-tool potential, which the hobby loves. HP: 8
Alfredo Duno - Signed for $3 MM in January, the Reds inked a player who (without Ethan Salas) would be the the best J15 complete-catching-prospect in last five years. He’s already shown great power potential in the DSL without the expense of being able to hit - in more simple terms he’s a top 3 offensive performer in his J15 class. He’s only DHing for now, so it remains to be seen if his bat suffers under the rigors of catching. HP: 8
Alfredo Alcantara - DSL production has been kind to the Reds 2023 J15’s this year, and Yeycol Soriano belongs in that too. But let’s talk about Alcantara. On the negative side he’s small in stature, raw on the defensive side, and doesn’t have much speed. But he’s shown a patient approach and an ability to find the barrel with regularity to show off his pull-side power. It’s too early to project anything really, but it’s so far so good with the fallback of the club having invested $640k in him. HP: 5
Blake Dunn - As a fellow Western Michigan University grad, I’m ashamed to say I hadn’t heard of Dunn before researching this piece. As a 2021 15th-Round senior sign, he hasn’t been moved up levels quickly, but his blend of speed, power, and hit with increased levels of productivity as he’s moved up should be eye-catching. The caveat is that he’s nearing 25, so everything he does from now through Spring Training next year is important - he can’t stumble, or he’ll lose any hobby steam he may have. HP: 4
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Welbyn Francisca - The Guardians top 2023 J15 signer, Francisca is already showing the supposed ‘hit/speed’ archetype that got him that bonus. Francisca doesn’t have a smooth swing but does generate great bat speed and is geared for contact – adding excellent foot speed to that has led to a lot of pull-side line drives that have turned into extra bases. With a feel for the barrel like this it’s only a matter of time before he learns to use the whole field, which could lead to better game power. So, I’m dreaming a lot here, but it’s the dream of a dynamic player that won’t & shouldn’t be ignored by the hobby. HP: 9
Jose Pirela - No, not the Jose Pirela who last played in the majors in 2019. This one is a low-six-figure 2023 J15 who’s used the levers in his large frame to great success so far this year. Even so, his batted ball profile has a lot of room for optimization. This is a the type of under-the-radar, high power ceiling youngster I personally love taking shots on for the hobby. HP: 6
Esteban Gonzalez - He’s repeating the Complex but it’s impossible to ignore the massive gains he’s shown in both power and quality of contact. He has some speed as well, and though short of stature his upper body still has room to fill out. Tread lightly with the 20 YO in Complex ball here, but there’s some ingredients to get excited about. HP: 5
COLORADO ROCKIES
Robert Calaz - Five-tool potential with power being the top among them. Interested? You should be. The Rockies top 2023 J15 has shown very well in the DSL as well, so the biggest question now is, will the Rockies develop him properly? HP: 8
Derek Bernard - I have no idea why Bernard is repeating the DSL. The results were strong last year, so of course they’re better this year. He’s shown speed and a good feel to hit with some pop throughout his pro career. Defense is an issue but that can be addressed at a stop where he’s also challenged offensively - this is just Exhibit A in the tick for the ‘avoid Rockies prospects’ box, but it’s not fair to blame the player. HP: 5
Franklin Lopez - For Exhibit B of the ‘avoid Rockies prospects’ section, I present Mr. Lopez. Sure, he’s a catcher and that has the longest development time of any position. But as his OBP was over .400 last year, the expectation was that he’d be at the Complex. But no. He’s playing the DSL again this year. Let me rephrase. He’s destroying the DSL this year. It doesn’t mean a lot in reality. But we’re left to ponder whether that over-.700 SLG in the DSL could be an over-.550 SLG in the Complex. That would still be a worthwhile prospect for the hobby. As it is, we have to also consider the flipside – that he’ll just be the same as Bryant Betancourt. HP: 5
DETROIT TIGERS
Josue Briceno - He plays C/1B, but let’s ignore that for now - it’s really more accurate to just call him a hitter. He’s done it for two years now at the lowest levels, with increased power and discipline at the Complex this year. With a chiseled 6’4” frame (there’s no video, I’m going from 2022 signing day photos on that) it’s easy to dream of plus power in his future. Speed isn’t in his game, and figuring out a defensive home will eventually become important. But for now it’s fair for the hobby to act on what he’s done offensively. HP: 6
Reese Olson - Having been a pro since 2018, you’d think Topps could have snuck him into a product or six by now as he’s ascended both the minors and prospect rankings. With excellent secondary pitches in tow, harnessing command will be key to Olson’s success in the majors. He’s been prone to making mistake pitches repeatedly even as the surface BB% has dropped in his time in the majors. Still, it’s easy to see mid-rotation upside with his stuff. HP: 6
Justyn-Henry Malloy - After being traded to the Tigers before the season, Malloy was featured with base cards in 2023 Bowman as a Brave. Will Topps make the update if he has autos in this fall’s release? We’ll see. On the field, it’s hard to know what the Tigers are thinking in not giving Malloy a shot in the majors. He’s a not a positive on the defensive side but he does play LF & 3B - and the offensive offset is greater than what the Tigers are running out there. He’s been good all year but since mid-June he’s shown another level of being ready, posting a .330/.430/.550. He doesn’t have big power but his above-average hit tool is strong enough to let him get to some – second-division regular is an easy low-end projection. Coupled with proximity, Malloy will draw some solid hobby interest. HP: 6
HOUSTON ASTROS
Luis Baez - If there’s a book to be written on how to make a stateside debut, Baez makes for a good prototype. After hitting 7 HR in his first 17 games in the Complex he was promoted to Low-A where he hit 6 2B in his first 4 games there. There’s more to fall back on than just the hot start though. He exhibited excellent game power in the DSL last year and he’s stepped up his growth as a complete hitter considerably this year. His swing is a thing of beauty. He has enough arm to stick in RF. There’s just every ingredient we care about (except speed), and it all has above average potential or better. HP: 10
Waner Luciano - Showing big HR power at a young age in both the DSL and Complex, Luciano shouldn’t be ignored despite underwhelming results in total. His quality of contact isn’t yet consistent but his swing-and-miss isn’t really concerning for his age either. Come for the power, stay for the future growth as a complete hitter. HP: 7
Zach Dezenzo - A 12th-Round senior sign from last year’s draft who showed emergent power in his final year at Ohio State, but that hasn’t continued thus far a pro. Instead, Dezenzo annihilated High-A for 31 games with a .407 average - it was just an extreme level of quality contact, but only 4 HR. Since his promotion to AA he’s just been OK and dealt with an injury, but there’s still a lot of quality contact between it all. What’s most intriguing to me is that he still has that raw power to tap into. But at 23, his margin to actually do it is slim in the hobby’s eyes. Should he be in the Bowman Chrome product, I’d be in on him if he’s cheap enough. HP: 5
Joey Loperfido - Another senior sign, Loperfido was taken in the 7th Round in 2021 and signed to an underslot deal. He’s massively outproduced it. Just this year since his AA promotion, he’s flirting with a .300/.400/.500 slash, and showing solid speed and ability to handle multiple positions. It’s what you want to see from a player of this ilk if he’s going to make it to the majors and be productive. The one issue for the hobby? He’s already 24 and not knocking at the door yet. We don’t need to see much more growth for him to be significant for the hobby, we just need opportunity and continued performance. I picked Loperfido & Dezenzo here, but Kenedy Corona and Jacob Melton also don’t have autos yet and fit into this same range. HP: 5
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Roni Cabrera - Recent acquisition that wouldn’t be a Royal if he’s in Bowman Chrome. He’s repeating the DSL, but he’s young for it and performing very well at the plate. The Royals top 2023 J15 was Tony Ruiz, who probably belongs in this same range with his plus power potential, but he’s shown himself to be quite raw. HP: 5
Milo Rushford - His career is very young but keep an eye on Rushford, who’s showing a solid blend of hit, speed, and power so far at the Complex. Saying more than that is more than I’m willing to project. HP: 5
Javier Vaz - The Royals don’t have many players in the way of having hobby juice – they have no one that would have more than middling hobby interest. Vaz falls into this category - though he was just a 2022 15th-Rounder, he’s shown himself to be legit prospect as far as reaching the majors, but his hobby ceiling is low as a punchless speed/hit dual threat. HP: 4
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Luis Torres - It’s bare bones for the Angels, so I’ll go with Torres as their top potential name. The 1B-only prospect has big power that showed in the DSL last year & briefly at the Complex this year, but he’s really struggled since his promotion to Low-A. For someone who’s starting as a deeper name, there’s not a lot to glom onto with him right now. HP: 4
Felix Morrobel - In the interest of depth I’ll add Morrobel. He was the top 2023 J15 for the Angels, but it wasn’t a seven-figure bonus. He has shown some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the DSL, but it’s a hyper-aggressive approach with little pop at present. He will be a different player as he progresses than he looks like now, and it seems like a fairly low ceiling for the hobby. HP: 4
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Joendry Vargas - After Salas and Walcott, Vargas has clearly asserted himself with performance as the #3 2023 J15 for the hobby. With the pedigree of a $2 MM bonus, he’s has been one of the most complete, mature hitters in the DSL. He’s flashing 5 tools for now but as he grows into his athletic 6’4” frame it’s fair to question if he will retain his speed (and ability to stay at SS). It won’t matter all that much when we don’t have to squint too hard to see above average power/hit/arm at 3B. He has the makings of another Dodgers hobby super-prospect. HP: 10
Eduardo Quintero - It’s not fair that the Dodgers keep doing this. Quintero was a minor 2023 J15, so there’s not high expectations, right? Well, in most ways he’s outproducing Joendry Vargas offensively, and has played exclusively CF defensively. He’s the biggest breakout in the DSL - the speed is real, the hit is real, the power could be mostly real. He’s not on Vargas’ level – even crazy hobbyists know better than to immediately buy-in on this – but I would personally expect his quick ascent to continue. HP: 9
Emmet Sheehan - Another player who isn’t likely to see any Bowman prospect cards, but he needs to be discussed. The beginning of his career in the majors hasn’t gone perfectly, but he’s hit the high highs we like to see. He definitely didn’t have much to prove in the minors, where his two plus pitches (fastball & change) outmatched everyone. He’s also being trusted in the rotation on a contenting team with a ton of eyes on him. With a few little improvements to his command and breaking pitches, Sheehan will be at least a mid-rotation arm for years to come. He’s arrived, but he hasn’t ARRIVED yet - I think it’s coming though. HP: 7
Thayron Liranzo - We have reasons to fear with Liranzo - he’s a catcher (for now) and he strikes out a lot. But the HR power he’s shown for his age at Low-A is special, and he does get on base enough to offset the high K%. Since returning from injury there’s even some quality of contact improvements. I’m not a buy on him personally, but with improvements there’s a lot of potential offensive hobby helium. HP: 6
Jonny DeLuca - We also shoudn’t expect DeLuca in Bowman Chrome and he’s faded as his role with the big club did not afford regular AB’s and he’s now hurt, but when he gets run as a regular there’s legit hobby helium to be had. He’s a do-everything player that could pop in any of the three offensive tools. HP: 6
Elias Medina - Yeah, a 3rd Dodgers DSL player here. They just crushed it in the international signing period this year. Another minor signing, Medina is more raw than Quintero and Vargas but his performance has been more dynamic than either – he was the first player in the 2023 J15 class to 7 HR/10 SB. He’s also splitting time with Vargas at SS for now. HP: 6
Chris Newell - Inconsistent as a prep and inconsistent at Virginia, but in possession of great raw power and speed tools, Newell really showed out against younger competition in Low-A early this year. Showing that he’s able to do that - have 14 HR and a .662 SLG in a 41 game span – is why he’s here. When he was promoted to High-A the quality of contact dropped, which made his high K% untenable. But the tools are clearly there, and if he’s able to hone his skills as a complete hitter, there’s a good chance he makes it to the majors in a few years as “the Dodgers’ latest late bloomin’ power speed guy”. HP: 6
Oswaldo Osorio, Austin Gauthier, Yunior Garcia, Payton Martin - The Dodgers have depth for days. All of these players above would get written up in this piece on many other teams, and they all have solid potential. HP: 5
MIAMI MARLINS
Eury Perez - We can dream, right? It’s unlikely we ever see Perez draped in the 1st Bowman branding, but if we do, he’s the hobby-pitching unicorn we haven’t had at a product’s release since Casey Mize (granted, we’ll have it again this year with Paul Skenes in Draft.) Youth, production, & ace potential – and showing it at the majors, obviously. He would be a Top 5 chase in Bowman Chrome, full stop. HP: 10
Marco Vargas - Yes, he’s now a Met but he’s confirmed for Bowman Chrome as a Marlin so we’ll talk about him here. We’re still in the early stages and a lot can still happen, but Vargas might be an Adael Amador-type. As evidenced by a 2:1 BB:K ratio and single digit SWStr%, his hit tool looks special. There have been incremental improvements this year to other aspects of his game as well. He’s certainly continued to exceed the nonexistent expectations he had going into the DSL last year. HP: 7
Fabian Lopez - Janero Miller was the Marlins’ top 2023 J15, but he’s a super-raw 2-way player who hasn’t done much yet, so we’ll go with the next highest six-figure bonus, Lopez. Fabian ticks the boxes we all love in the hobby - projectable, five tool potential at a premium position, with a little bit of performance. There’s more contact and approach issues than some of his peers, but he’s only 17 so there’s plenty of time. I’m intentionally taking Lopez over last year’s DSL power bat, Jose Gerardo, here. Gerardo’s contact issues at the Complex, for now, look unassailable. HP: 5
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Luke Adams - Drafted as an overslot 12th Round prep in last year’s draft, Adams has blown away expectations. His best tool is power, with projection for more - he has a big 6’4” frame with an easy stroke. Overall his hit is not great, but he’s shown a great approach all year – so it’s a tool that’s trending up toward being fringe-average overall. He’s also stolen 20+ bases somehow? Seems like a mirage but he’s clearly showing himself to be more athletic than anticipated, which gives hope that he may stick at 3B. For the hobby, he ticks many boxes collectors like, and his risk isn’t as extreme as many in this piece. HP: 8
Yophery Rodriguez - Rodriguez ticks all the boxes of a DSL darling for the hobby - pedigree, performance, and projectability are all on his side. His 5 tool potential is quite apparent, and had a July where he hitting 11 XBH in 20 games with an OPS over .900 and more BB than K. The $1.5 MM 2023 J15 signer might be slightly undervalued too if he’s in Bowman Chrome, as his surface hitting numbers are dragged down by some bad BABIP luck. If there’s any dip whatsoever, I’m a buyer. HP: 8
Juan Baez - After a solid but unspectacular DSL season where she showed an advanced knack for putting bat-to-ball, Baez is leading the Complex in hits by a wide margin. So, fair to say the contact skills have persisted (sub-15 K%), but he’s also hitting the ball hard with consistency and is among the teenage leaders in XBH. Add in his above average speed, and he’s quite the package for the hobby. The downside is that, while we don’t care yet with the results he’s had, he has a hyper aggressive approach – we’ll have to see how that plays as he faces more advanced pitching. He likely won’t be much of a HR threat, but there’s so much elsewhere that we just don’t care that much. HP: 7
Luis Lara - See Juan Baez as far as player type, but we have more information with his having played at Low-A most of the year. With Lara we’re more certain of his hit tool being excellent, more sure of his speed being able to play well on the basepaths and in CF, and more sure that he doesn’t have much power. That last part is why he’s just a hair under Baez for the hobby. Still an excellent prospect and slightly safer than both Baez and Adams. I have him written out here because he had no autos in May’s release. HP: 7
MINNESOTA TWINS
Hendry Chivili - As I’m writing this Chivili has under 60 AB’s in the DSL - it’s too limited of a sample for me to draw any reasonable conclusions. When he gets back to health Chivili will look to prove himself to have the 5 tool potential that earned him $2.1 MM in the 2023 J15 period. HP: 8
Andrew Cossetti - There’s a little something to believe in with Cossetti, who was a senior sign from last year’s draft. Sure he’s 23 and hasn’t seen AA pitching yet, but his plate skills look like they’ll scale. His OBP has been over .400 at both stops this year and he smacked 30 XBH in his first 250 PA’s. Sticking at catcher, at least in some manner, is important for him because he probably doesn’t have enough power to be an everyday 1B. With a little more development there’s a chance for a second-division regular here, but it’s weighted heavily on his offense, which we like for the hobby. HP: 5
Jose Rodriguez - The player who hit 13 HR, leading all 17 YO’s, in the DSL last year deserves mention. This year’s performance hasn’t been as remarkable by any means, but with a player as raw as he, already having shown what he has, holding your own has value. And he’s done that so far. He doesn’t have speed or defensive value, so he’ll have to produce again eventually, but for now this is fine. Buy the dip if there is one. HP: 5
Ariel Castro - It’s always worth noting a team’s top player from the current J15 class ($2.4 MM) if it’s offensive projection that got him there, but Castro seems very, very raw at present which will limit his initial status in the hobby. HP: 5
NEW YORK METS
Jacob Reimer - An overslot 4th-round prep last year, Reimer showed an advanced enough feel-to-hit that he was recently promoted to High-A at 19. It's that hit tool that’s clearly the most advanced for now, but his swing is geared for power where has above average potential. It's a traditional 3B build though defense is currently a challenge, and speed is not a part of his game. For the hobby, as he’s on nearly the same development track, I’ll be treating him like a light version of Ryan Clifford / Roman Anthony for now. HP: 6
Julio Zayas - Every time I read this name I think back to the Planet of the Apes, The Musical episode of The Simpsons and I have an earworm for hours. Anyhow, Zayas was a minor 2023 J15 signing who’s a catcher for now but has also spent time at other positions. But what we’re most interested in is his bat, which has him among his class’s leaders in most offensive categories. He’s wide shouldered but shorter in stature with a contact oriented swing, so his power ceiling doesn’t seem to be fantastic. But so far so good. HP: 6
Wilfredo Lara - Getting to double-digit HR at 19 with the plus speed he has, in full season ball, should always get the attention of the hobby. He’s shown improvements with his hit tool every year as well, and to me it’s a fringe-average projection now. So there’s a lot of ingredients we like for the hobby with Lara, and a nice ceiling to dream on. HP: 6
Blade Tidwell - Seems like he should be in the Bowman Chrome set, right? Big name draftee from a power conference school with nice SP projection? There’s no way Topps didn’t do this on purpose, right? His performance has matched his pedigree so far too, making it to AA after flashing his potential plus fastball/slider combo to the tune 12.3 K/9 in High-A. There are significant command issues though, so that leaves him with bullpen risk. HP: 5
NEW YORK YANKEES
Keiner Delgado - The biggest knocks on Delgado are that he’s undersized and he signed a year late, so he’ll already be 20 in January. But if you treat him like a 2022 prep draftee like his age would dictate, we’d be clamoring for a promotion to Low-A. He’s quite the polished hitter and has continued to make hard contact with regularity in the Complex. It’s fair to think he’ll never truly have great power though. Speed is his best asset, and he’s been one of the very best at his level at stealing bases. I’m taking him over Tejada for the hobby right now. HP: 8
Enmanuel Tejada - There’s a minor down arrow with Tejada that the hobby won’t and probably shouldn’t care about. He’s still a very young, very solid prospect with enough speed and hit still showing to give him a (small) floor to stand on. But there’s not nearly as much power this year as he’s moved to the Complex – his ISO has dropped significantly. He’s also not playing SS anymore, ceding all that playing time to Roderick Arias. Could he still rebound across the board? Absolutely. But I wouldn’t buy it if there's fully inflated hobby helium in Bowman Chrome. HP: 8
Brando Mayea - He’s on the same level for the hobby as Delgado and Tejada after signing for a massive $4.3 MM bonus in January, but I have him listed 3rd here because he’s been…just OK in the DSL. He’s very projectable and built to be a hobby star with all 5 Tools, but the power isn’t really showing up quite yet. He’s already confirmed to be in Bowman Chrome (as Brandon Mayea), where he’ll be one of the top chases. HP: 8
Chase Hampton - Though AA has been a bit more of a challenge, there’s no debate that the 6th Rounder from Texas Tech is the hidden gem of the 2022 draft thus far. Sporting a pair of above-average fastballs and breaking pitches that play well off them, Hampton has the makings of at least a mid-rotation starter. He’s only 21 so being young for the level is also in his favor. Being in this system with this amount of helium might lead to some crazy prices for a pitcher - maybe the highest of any not named Eury. HP: 7
Agustin Ramirez, Hans Montero, Jared Serna, John Cruz, Gabriel Lara, Gabriel Terrero - Agustin has been so hot lately that he really deserves to be broken out, but I’ll treat it just like a big hot streak for now. All of these guys are solid-very solid hobby prospects. We’ll revisit them if they’re in Bowman Chrome. HP: 6
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Zack Gelof - Can’t blame you for not paying attention to what he’s been doing in the majors, but it’s pretty much exactly the same as what he’s done in the minors. That’s a net-positive, power-over-hit bat that should play in the hobby, especially as a middle infielder. Of course, the team context is terrible and he had Bowman cards but no autos in 2023 Bowman, so there’s a lot of disjointedness with his collectability. He has confirmed autos for the 2023 Bowman Chrome product. HP: 6
Lawrence Butler – We’re gonna throw it all the way back to 2018 Bowman Draft where he had cards but no autos, and hasn’t been seen since in any Bowman products. Over the years Butler has steadily grown as a prospect, and now will definitely be a major leaguer. What’s more, there’s still quite a bit of untapped power in what’s now his mature 23 YO frame. Low-risk, medium reward buy for the hobby. HP: 6
Brennan Milone - He’s been inconsistent dating back to his days as a prep, but at his best he’s above average in hit and power - what we care most about for the hobby. He proved that in the lowest level of full-season ball, but at 22 it really was just proof of concept. There is no floor. He’s a positionless infielder with little speed, and since his promotion to High-A there has been lack of quality contact and a ballooned K%. HP: 5
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Eduardo Tait - One of the youngest J15 signers in the class, the Panamanian Tait doesn’t even turn 17 until the end of the month. Any lack of physicality in his already 6-ft frame doesn’t show in his DSL performance, stroking 15 XBH in his first 30 games. It’s a smooth, powerful stroke built for line drives. He’s a catcher for now, and nabbing over 40% of baserunners seems to be an indication he’ll have an opportunity to stick there. Performance aside, there’s still a lot of raw tendencies - I wouldn’t predict him to be some sort of wunderkind that gets to advanced levels as a teenager. HP: 6
Starlyn Caba - Also known as Jesus Caba (for now), he was the Phillies’ big $3 MM bonus signing from this year’s J15 period. We can already say at 17 that he projects as a better real-life prospect than a hobby one. Power will likely never be a part of his game. While he does have potential above average speed and hit, it’s his defense and arm strength that earned him that bonus and figure to be his bread and butter. HP: 4
Carlos De La Cruz - I’m not a fan of De La Cruz at all but I can’t ignore top-of-the-scale raw power in a 6’8” frame sitting at AA. He’s had a decent enough year this year, and if he’s somehow able to keep his K% in check to this extent, there’s a MLB DH-type in his future. HP: 4
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Tsung-Che Cheng - It’s a blessing and a curse to be writing this 120 PA’s into his AA experience, and not while he was still at High-A. It’s made me not overhype Cheng, and it’s made me take a look at what a struggling player of this ilk looks like. It’s not pretty. Of course, Cheng has rebounded and made adjustments to AA (with a 15-game hit streak!), so we do have a less volatile picture on his future. He’s got a little bit of pop, what’s likely to be above average hit and speed tools, and the ability to play all over the infield. It makes for a player that’s more valuable in real life than in the hobby, but when he does well for an extended period he could undoubtedly get some helium. HP: 6
Esmerlyn Valdez – Repeating the Complex at 19, but he’s having the offensive breakout we want to see in doing so, especially as a player who’s only impact will be with the bat. It’s not a mirage that he’s among the leaders in the Complex in both AVG & SLG – there’s some legitimate changes that led to improvement in quality of contact, but temper expectations as he moves to full season ball next year. There’s some really raw plate tendencies still present, underpinned by a higher K% than you’d expect from someone seeing so much success. HP: 5
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Ethan Salas - There’s not a lot that hasn’t been said about Salas. You hear the term ‘generational talent’ thrown at a lot of different prospects, but he’s looked the part. He already looks like he has 4 tools that project as above average, and who knows which of those will flash to plus. It’s not even fair to nitpick what he’s doing performance-wise - there’s no recent parallel for a player of his age (having just turned 17 in June) to do what he’s done at Low-A (and he’s now in High-A!), and at catcher no less. He’s very likely to be in Bowman Chrome, where simply put, he’s the #1 name in the product by a large margin. HP: 10
Graham Pauley - A 13th Rounder in last year’s draft, the Duke product has massively outperformed his station. You can ignore what he did against the less-developed pitching in Low-A earlier this year. Since promotion to High-A he’s slugged over .600, highlighted by 11 HR in his first 30 games. He also makes excellent swing decisions - that’s really a better indicator than the power surge that he’ll have continued success moving forward. I’m willing to take the gamble on Pauley should he be in Bowman Chrome, but since he’s almost 23, I’d feel better if he got a few AB’s at AA before the end of the season. HP: 6
Albert Fabian - The positives are that he’s still just 21, there are slight improvements to his offensive performance, and he mostly retained it with promotion to High-A (unlike last year). The bad news is that he started 2023 back at Low-A and spent 62 games there before the Padres gave him that second crack at High-A. He’s moderately intriguing because there is power, and if he can improve quality of contact there’s an average hit tool there too. It does all come down to the bat though, as he’s corner OF-only. HP: 5
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Rayner Arias - The flame of Arias’ 2023 season may have been extinguished quickly, but man did it ever burn hot and bright. It’s video game numbers. Nobody in the DSL with 70 PA’s, regardless of age, matches his 1.333 OPS. No 17 YO comes within .050 of the .379 ISO he put up. We could go on but really it’s just disappointing that we now need to wait until next year to see how he develops further. The clearly apparent 5-Tool potential and $2.7 MM bonus and he signed cements his status as what would be one of the top chases in Bowman Chrome. HP: 10
Carson Whisenhunt - I hate that he’s hurt, and I hate that it’s his elbow. There were enough gains in the effectiveness of his fastball that, pairing it with a double-plus change and good command, I think he would have just waltzed into the middle of the Giants rotation by May of next year, with high-K upside. But now with things being as uncertain as they are, it’s fair to push Birdsong above him in the pecking order. HP: 6
Hayden Birdsong, Wade Meckler, Onil Perez, Victor Bericoto, Angel Guzman – As I indicated above Birdsong is the tops among these, and I’m largely a believer in what Meckler is doing (all the way up at AAA now) as well. But these guys are all in the same range for the hobby to me. HP: 5
SEATTLE MARINERS
Felnin Celesten - Before Ethan Salas emerged, Celesten was talked about for years as the top name of his international class. His ceiling is sky-high in all elements of his game and he would be one of the top chases in the Bowman Chrome product. We just don’t have any performance to speak of yet, as he’s been recovering from a hamstring strain and has not made his pro debut. HP: 10
Luis Suisbel - It really wasn’t looking good at all for Suisbel headed into this year – after 2 years in the DSL his career batting average stood at a paltry .202 with a .159 ISO. But it’s been different this year. After a mediocre start in the Complex he really turned it on in July, mashing 6 HR with a .488 OBP, earning a recent promotion to Low-A. With the uppercut swing he has, there’s a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but he’s patient enough to hunt for his pitch to maximize damage. I won’t be in on him if he’s in Bowman Chrome because the track record is so very short, but if this is the real Luis Suisbel, watch out. HP: 4
ST. lOUIS cARDINALS
Masyn Winn - The infamous Winn/Bowman conundrum. He was given cards to sign for 2020 Bowman Draft, and a few backdoor (fake auto) copies were publicized. While he was used again in the 2022 Bowman Draft set, we’re still waiting on an auto. We’re especially craving it now, as he’s been going nuts for the past month at AAA and St. Louis appears to have cleared the path for his arrival in the majors. I’ve said it before, but he has the hobby ‘it’ factor with the 80-grade arm at SS and pairs it with youth, plus speed, and enough hit and power to matter. But will he ever have a Bowman auto? HP: 10
Leonardo Bernal - I’m not nearly as high on him as I was at the beginning of the year, but such is the way of being a catcher. Being trusted to handle the lion’s share of catching duties at 19 from the beginning of the year in Low-A is no small feat, but he’s done well defensively all year. Though his May and June yielded poor offensive results, he’s shown an advanced feel to hit and posted an OBP over .350 in every month. Whether he ever gets to much power is the biggest question for the hobby - he has good enough body projection for it, but it’s not showing up right now. HP: 5
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Brailer Guerrero – He only played 7 games in the DSL before going down to injury, so all we have is what we know from scouts. Signed for a massive $3.7 MM bonus, Guerrero’s calling card figures to be his power, which one day could be a plus tool. We’ll see how advanced of a hitter he truly is next year, but for the hobby, knowing nothing about his reality, we’ll hang on to that bonus and his offensive skills being the reason behind it, so he’s significant. HP: 7
Mason Montgomery – There’s not really a strong second player we can hope for in this system, but Mongomery has been exactly as expected this year. At best he’s a mid rotation piece with a three pitch-mix that could all end up above average or better. But his command has not seen the leap forward it needs to get clsoe to that ceiling yet. He has been at AA all year though, so if the improvements happen he could be up with the big club soon. Honorable mention to Jose Monzon, who’s had a good year in DSL and fits in at this same level. HP: 4
TEXAS RANGERS
Sebatian Walcott - The only player not named Ethan Salas from this year’s J15 class playing stateside thus far, Walcott has been every bit of the explosive player the Rangers expected when they signed him for $3.2 MM this January. His hit tool (36 K% in the Complex) keeps me from saying he’s another 5 Tool potential guy, but 18 XBH in his first 35 pro games is just a dream in the hobby’s eyes. There’s no doubt that there’s years of refinement ahead, but there’s also no doubt of the sky-high ceiling. HP: 10
Abimelic Ortiz - I’m a believer. Since May 21 when he was promoted to High-A Hickory, he’s been over a .600 SLG while leading the SAL in HR. He won’t continue to hit near .330 as he advances levels, but to me he’s showing enough improvement to say that his hit tool should continue to be strong enough to let his power play. The 21 YO is destined to be 1B-only but the hobby won’t care - there’s too many positive ingredients here to temper the hype much. HP: 7
Brock Porter - He’s been babied all of this year with strict pitch counts, and his command has been iffy. But overall he’s been tremendous. There’s nothing to indicate he isn’t one of the top few prep arms from the 2022 Draft, as expected. HP: 7
Echedry Vargas - Vargas is a ‘my guy’. A minor signing in 2022, I watched Vargas all of last year into this year and he just keeps performing. He’s a sum-of-the-parts type with his infield defense being his strongest tool, but if it all continues to click players of this ilk like Hector Rodriguez & Thomas Saggese do juuust fine in the hobby. As far as making a bet to reach the majors, Vargas is as high of a risk as any, but as a dart throw you could do far, far worse. HP: 6
Jack Leiter - I’m not sure if this is too low. He’s never been good as a pro, but he still has great stuff, son of major leaguer, was a star at a major college program, and was a #2 overall pick. These things matter for the hobby no matter the performance woes. HP: 5
Aidan Curry, Alejandro Osuna, Yeremi Cabrera, Marcos Torres, Jose Corniell - The Rangers also stack the box with too many prospects to go into detail about. I love Curry more than the rest, but I have no reason to treat him as better than these other three. They’re all at different stages of development with some decent hobby potential. HP: 5
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Alan Roden - A 3rd Round pick out of Creighton last year, Roden’s hit tool looks just as advanced as advertised. He’s a fairly safe bet to make the majors sooner rather than later in fact, but here’s the problem for the hobby: no power or speed. He’s a corner OF-only bat who slashes enough line drives to register plenty of XBH, but it’s all doubles. To me, unless his hit tool ticks up to plus he’s destined to be a 4th OF, but there’s a very strong chance that he gets to that. HP: 4
Addison Barger - This would have been Dahian Santos but he’s been on the shelf for awhile. So, I’ll pivot to one of last year’s breakouts who’s just now getting back into rhythm from an injury - but Barger’s performance this year had not been a repeat of last even before injury. It would take a major leap of faith for the Jays to give him a shot in the majors at this point, which is what he would need to have hobby significance. HP: 4
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Jake Bennett - All the highly-regarded National prospects already have Bowman autos. So we’re left with Bennett (who has Bowman cards, but no autos). He’s been great at both A levels as a 22 year old this year but hasn’t pitched since June. Andy Acevedo & Edwin Solano were their top 2023 J15’s, but they’ve been, um, not good. Sorry folks, not much to go on with this system. HP: 4