We made it! The first product of 2024, Topps Series 1 is out. As usual, I dive into every player with a base rookie card in the product and give you my thoughts as well as Hobby Tier rankings plus their potential Ceiling possibility. From the high flying, hyped beyond belief prospects like Elly De La Cruz and Jasson Dominguez to the new kid on the Hobby block, Evan Carter, this release has a lot going for it. Let’s rip some packs and jump into the rookies from 2024 Topps Series 1.
We classify rookies in two ways - a Tier ranking and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Ceiling Grade
Ceiling has been assigned to each player to provide a quick glimpse into their hobby impact.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
***Note - I won’t be writing up rookies that don’t have a base rookie card in the product, although there will be rookies with inserts and/or autos in the product. Almost assuredly these players will have base rookie cards in the next Flagship product I will be writing up, Topps Series 2. The highlights of this list are Junior Caminero (Tier 1), Jordan Lawlar (Tier 1/2), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Tier 2), Kyle Harrison (Tier 1 in my heart, probably Tier 2 in reality) with some more team collector focused interest with Masyn Winn and Austin Wells
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Justin Martinez, P, 22
Martinez has filthy stuff and regularly pumps triple digit heaters from the mound. In his debut game, he reportedly threw the five fastest pitches in the history of the Diamondbacks. The problem for Martinez has been his lack of command, and coupled with quite a bit of injury history, has him locked into a bullpen role. If he ever finds semi-consistent command, that plus fastball and plus splitter combo (along with an above average slider) will end up regularly being used to close out games for Arizona. There is Tier 3 upside with his lights out closer potential, but that lack of command leads me to drop him into Tier None with a higher than normal Ceiling in this Tier. (Ceiling 4)
Atlanta Braves
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
AJ Smith-Shawver, P, 21
The 7th round pick of the Braves in 2021 out of the Texas prep ranks rode a rocket ship from High-A all the way to the big league club in 2023. Smith-Shawver features a mid-90’s four seam fastball that he throws over half the time, followed by an above average mid-80’s slider that gets thrown about a quarter of the time. Completing the arsenal are a change-up and a curveball, something that looks to be relatively new to his arsenal (and wasn’t good). There are command concerns, his fastball was very hittable at the MLB level and even at the AAA level didn’t generate many whiffs, and overall needs to get strikeouts to be successful, which he wasn’t doing. On the other hand, the Braves showed a ton of confidence in him, and almost always these teams know a lot better than we do the true talent of these players.
Debuting at 20 years old is really impressive, and it truly gave me a bit of pause in considering what Tier I would rank Smith-Shawver in. Ultimately I am going with my gut - I like his stuff, but I don’t love the data or the results. It’s a volatile profile that could easily end up as an SP2 just as much as an SP4 with reliever risk. With that uncertainty I am splitting the difference and putting him in Tier 3 with a high Ceiling. (Ceiling 7)
Tier None
None
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Colton Cowser, OF, 23
The fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft, Cowser’s calling card has been his hit tool from day one. What was a bit surprising is that he started to show average to above average power in the last two years. That power output pushed him up lists and got a lot of folks excited about his 2023 debut. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much with the 26 games and 77 plate appearances he was given. With the Orioles being competitive, they couldn’t afford to wait for Cowser to figure it out, and he got sent back down in mid-August after an early July debut. On a non-contender, I wouldn’t have been surprised if they let Cowser stay up and try to work out the debut kinks. Most of that seemed like a VERY passive approach, not swinging at much of anything with a 40% swing rate, and making in zone contact at a less than 20% rate.
Cowser is a super high OBP, patient hitter with 20 home run pop and 10 stolen bases. The hype he had prior to his debut was definitely real and fantasy baseball driven, which bled over to the hobby for a minute. That hype has died down, but even so, his offensive skill set is strong enough to get into my Tier 2. At the very least, he’s a really good every day player for the next 5 to 7 years in a young and exciting lineup. But he likely never outshines Adley, Gunnar, and the next big name to come up in Jackson Holliday, so Tier 2 is likely the cap on his Ceiling. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B, 24
A quintessential glue guy that does everything well enough to fill multiple roles, but doesn’t have a true carrying tool. Probably the weakest tool for Westburg is his arm and range, which limits him to second base as his primary position. However, he can handle third base in emergency roles, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get some big league reps in left field at some point in his career (he’s had a small amount in the minors). The plate approach is solid as he regularly displays a patient approach while making above average hard contact. He’s not barreling the ball as much as you’d want and his zone contact and outside the zone swing rates are typically average. As I said off the top, just an all around good player, but likely never a great player. He’s got a utility player floor with an every day, complimentary type player upside, which straddles that Tier None and Tier 3 line. A former first round pick and with a name that isn’t unknown, he gets the benefit of the doubt up into Tier 3. (Ceiling 5)
Tier None
None
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
David Hamilton, 2B/SS, 26
Originally drafted by the Brewers, Hamilton was acquired in exchange for Hunter Renfroe along with Alex Binelas and Jackie Bradley Jr. prior to the 2022 season. At that time, Binelas seemed like the better prospect in the deal, but it now seems like Hamilton has surged ahead in that discussion. Binelas’ poor performance has something to do with that as well though.
Hamilton is a speed merchant that has somewhat surprising double digit pop in the minors the past two seasons given that he’s a bit on the shorter side at 5’10”. Some of that can be attributed to newly introduced weighted bat training brought to the Red Sox org with Jason Ochart (formerly of the Phillies and Driveline). He’s always had above average to plus walk rates while keeping his strikeout rates reasonable. On the defensive side, he’s more of a second baseman than a shortstop with his average arm, and he probably should get more time in centerfield than he has previously. His season was cut short due to a thumb issue which resulted in surgery in late September, but he is expected back in time for the start of the season.
Hamilton has turned himself into a major league contributor at this point and at worst should provide value off the bench or as a starter that hits at the bottom third of the order. His double-plus speed gets him into Tier 3, but that’s likely his ceiling. (Ceiling 6)
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/SS/2B, 23
Rafaela was a Tier 3 in my 2022 Bowman write ups even though he had a ton of hype back then. Spoiler alert - I will still have him there by the end of this write-up. His Bowman prices were pretty outlandish for a moment in time back then with base 1st Bowman autos in raw form going for between $100 - $150 - they currently go for about $40.
As I said back in 2022, the speed and defense are not in question for Rafaela. He can make highlight reel plays in centerfield as well as be a competent middle infielder. The hit tool has a fair amount of work to get it to where the results we saw in the minors. He got away with being a free swinger in the minors, but it’s going to be an issue at the majors. In a small sample, his K rate jumped from 22% at Triple-A to 32% in the MLB in 2023. From a power perspective the data all looks average at the Triple-A level and again below average at the Triple-A level. With that said, he’s been able to put up more than 20 home runs in back to back pro seasons, so his game power does play.
So can Rafaela get that prospect hype back? It’s unlikely, but there’s a chance at peak he’s a Tier 2 player in the Randy Arozarena vein that can deliver a .280 batting average with 20 home runs and anywhere from 20 to 40 stolen bases with gold glove defense on a highly collectable team. Or is he more like former Red Sox Jackie Bradley Jr. where he just never puts every piece of the puzzle together at the same time and becomes known as a glove first guy. It’s likely somewhere in the middle of those two. I’m going to take the under on the average and home runs, which push him just down into that Tier 3 area with a higher Ceiling than normal. (Ceiling 7)
Tier None
Chris Murphy, P, 25
The Red Sox 6th round pick in 2019 is a lefty swingman that likely plies his trade in the bullpen long term. While he’s mostly been a starter in the minors, he was used purely out of the bullpen during his 2023 MLB debut outings. He features a low to mid 90’s four seamer with the average to above average secondaries. The change-up is the best of those with the slider and the curveball bringing up the rear. Strangely he’s favoring the slider as his main secondary while the change-up is almost an afterthought once he got to the MLB level. At Triple-A the breakdown was much more evenly spread between all three secondaries which he should at least try and get back to. There’s definitely a world where Murphy can succeed as a limit-the-damage backend starter, especially on a second division team. With him being a lefty lacking strikeout stuff, the more likely scenario is what we saw at the MLB level in 2023 - a low leverage reliever getting more opportunities than he should because he fires it from the left side. (Ceiling 3)
Joe Jacques, P, 28
Taken in the first round of the Minor League Rule 5 draft prior to the 2023 season from the Pirates system, Jacques is a through and through lefty bullpen arm. Throwing from a sidearm slot, he’s an uncomfortable at bat for any left hander. He is mostly using a two pitch arsenal with a low 90’s sinker and mid-70’s slider. He’s pitching to weak, ground ball contact with the sinker while the slider gets quite a lot of called strikes. In the minors, his slider also generated a lot of whiffs, close to 50% of the time, which is unreal. However, in the majors, big league hitters were able to lay off it a lot more.
Jacques is unlikely to ever get a ton of high leverage opportunities, but he may get a few against lefty heavy lineups. However, the likelihood he ever ends up with a full time closer role is almost non-existent. From a Hobby perspective, there is simply nothing to get excited about. (Ceiling 1)
Brandon Walter, P, 27
Did Topps have a quota that they had to meet for lefty bullpen arms in the Red Sox system, because this is the third one. And boy do we love that for the Hobby! Walter has been a starter almost exclusively during his minor league tenure, but in his small sample of nine games in Boston he was solely pitching out of the pen. That’s not to say there isn’t still some pitch to soft contact back-end starter potential. I just don’t see a ton of impetus for the Red Sox to go down that path when he wasn’t able to have a lot of success doing that in Triple-A in 2023.
Walter has a four pitch arsenal with two fastball varieties - a cutter around 87 and a sinker around 91. A big horizontal moving slider/sweeper and change-up with some nice drop on it round out the arsenal. There just isn’t much strikeout stuff coming from this arsenal now that he’s facing advanced hitters which is why he’s most likely a swing-man bullpen type in the long term. (Ceiling 3)
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Daniel Palencia, P, 24
Palencia is a fireballing two pitch bullpen arm acquired from the A’s along with Greg Diechmann back in 2021 for Andrew Chafin. The four seamer regularly touches triple digits and he’s throwing it in the neighborhood of two out of every three pitches. He throws a slider that gets its effectiveness from simply not being the fastball. Hitters are regularly loaded up for the heat and then get something coming ten miles per hour slower with some movement, even if it’s not much in Palencia’s case. When hitters aren’t being fooled, they punish the slider. And in Palencia’s case, the command is not good, so oftentimes hitters are just sitting back until they are forced to swing. This leads to high walk rates and keeps Palencia, at least in the short term, from consideration in high leverage situations. If he ever does find the command, there is future high leverage work to be had, but that’s a big if. Until then, he falls into the Tier None reliever bucket. (Ceiling 3)
Chicago White Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
José Rodríguez, SS/2B, 22
A surprise call-up from Double-A in mid-June, Rodríguez got into one game as a pinch runner and stayed in to play defense but never got an at-bat. He was sent back down to Double-A a week later before being called back up again at the end of August for a couple of days of an insurance policy riding the pine stint. This time, he was optioned to Triple-A, where he finished out the year. That one inning of MLB action was enough for Topps to give Rodríguez a rookie card for 2024.
There’s not a lot to hang your hat on with Rodríguez. The main above average tool is the speed where he likely steals 20+ bases with a full time job. Everything else hovers around average, and his defense is more second base than shortstop due to the average arm. I’m saying average a lot here, and that’s because there isn’t anything to get excited about. He fills in as a nice utility piece or starter on a second division team, which is where the White Sox are trending at the moment. With no standout tool, he’s in Tier None with Tier 3 upside if he can successfully balance his previously seen contact-first approach and his newer power-first approach we saw in 2023. At just 22 years old, it’s within the cards that he does find that balance with hitting for average and sneaking in a few 20/20 seasons. (Ceiling 5)
Zach Remillard, UTIL, 29
Not sure why but I always think of a fancy cheese, wine, or sauce when I hear Zach’s last name. I always pair my Zinfandel with a nice, sharp Remillard cheese. Or perhaps at the fancy French restaurant, I’ll order the Coq Au Vin with a Remillard Demi-Glace. Fun fact - I watch way too much Top Chef.
Zach Remillard finally got the call after grinding out the White Sox minor leagues since 2016. He’s long since fallen off of prospect radars. He just doesn’t do anything of note outside being able to play every position on the field with the exception of catcher. He’s a bag of 40’s at best, and that may be a bit generous outside of his speed and versatility. A nice org depth utility player, but one that is going to be a fringe guy for the remainder of his pro career. To that point, he was DFA’d by the White Sox in early January, went unclaimed, and is now ticketed for their Triple-A roster to start the season. (Ceiling 2)
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B, 22
As I’ve been ramping up for fantasy baseball the past month or so, Elly has to be the player I’ve heard the most polarizing and differing opinions on. The opinions that are lower than the market are mainly driven by the almost 34% strikeout rate in his 98 MLB games with a sprinkling of concern around the Reds lineup depth. At the beginning of the off-season, the Reds President of Baseball Operations, Nick Krall, wouldn’t rule out any of their young hitters that debuted in 2023 from starting the year in the minors. Then the Jeimer Candelario signing further added fuel to the naysayers' fire of Elly possibly not making the MLB roster out of Spring Training.
The supporters of Elly see the five-tool potential. An elite arm (98th percentile per statcast) and elite speed (100th percentile per statcast) are the highlights. He’s got plus power, and it’s easy power. There’s highlights where Elly looks to be fooled on a pitch and throws an excuse-me swing out there and the ball clears the fence. Defensively he’s got no problem playing shortstop or third base, and could move to the outfield if it made sense from a team perspective. So it all really boils down to the hit tool if Elly will reach the heights of one of the best players in the game. From all reports, he’s a hard worker, and he spent this off-season working out with Juan Soto, for whatever that’s worth.
There’s a world where Elly just runs high strikeout rates while still excelling at hitting the ball out of the park and stealing a ton of bases along the lines of an exaggerated, souped-up version of what Luis Robert did in 2023. That’s still a Tier 2 player. On the other hand, Elly figures out the hit tool and cuts the strikeout rate down to a more manageable area along the lines of 27%. That would be confirming a Tier 1 profile and solidifying the five tool potential that oozes from Elly. At just 22 years old, I’m betting that Elly can figure it out and will be considered a top 10 hitter in baseball within the next few years. (Ceiling 10)
Tier 2
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B/DH, 24
A 2021 Bowman Draft prospect that I was on the Tier 2/Tier 3 fence with due to hit tool and defensive concerns (I played it safe and put him in Tier 3), Encarnacion-Strand has done nothing but produce at every stop since getting into the professional ranks.
There is no question about Encarnacion-Strand’s power. He hit 32 home runs in his first full season in the minors in 2022 and followed that up with 33 home runs split between Triple-A and the majors in 2023. Add in that his home games are in Cincinnati and the power plays up even more. The hit tool and the defense are still question marks. At the MLB level in 2023, he had a 29% K rate and a 6% walk rate. That’s roughly what we should expect moving forward, although the K rate could regress positively towards a 25% - 26% rate with more experience about what to do against his two worst whiff pitches, sliders and change-ups.
With the Reds current roster construction, CES doesn’t have an everyday role given his defensive question marks. Without the Jeimer Candelario signing, CES has a regular 1B/DH role, but that does block him until an injury opens up playing time. The hit tool concerns and the lack of a locked-in role may keep Encarnacion-Strand’s prices artificially capped in season. However, given his proven 30+ home run power and home park context, he’s pretty easily a Tier 2 power bat. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
Andrew Abbott, P, 24
Coming out of the 2021 MLB draft as a second rounder for the Reds, I wrote up Abbott in my 2021 Bowman Draft preview and pushed him into Tier None as a high floor, low ceiling back-end starter type. The low-90’s fastball velocity kept me from getting him higher amongst other concerns.
Fast forward to 2023 and everything came together for Abbott, starting with the Southern League tacky ball leading to absolute domination and a 20% K rate. A weak Reds rotation eventually led to a call-up at the beginning of June and put together 9 out of 10 good to great starts to kick-off his MLB career. The remainder of the year was a bit less dominant, and he settled into more of what you would expect out of an SP3 type. When he’s on, the fastball is setting up his plus sweeper while keeping hitter’s honest with the change-up and curveball. When he’s off, his low ground ball rates and lack of fastball velocity come back to bite him as he has to live on the edges of the zone for everything but the sweeper. There’s Tier 2 upside when Abbott is on and facing swing happy teams, but his home ballpark does him no favors. What was once a borderline Tier 3/Tier None profile has easily jumped into Tier 3 with a Tier 2 Ceiling. (Ceiling 7)
Tier None
None
Cleveland Guardians
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Gavin Williams, P, 24
A big, prototypical power pitcher taken in the 1st round of the 2021 MLB Draft by the Guardians. Williams had a strong debut in 2023 and should be a part of the Cleveland starting rotation for the foreseeable future (until he gets close to his free agent years, and then Cleveland will trade him away because that’s what they do).
It all starts with his plus four seam fastball that sits in the 95 - 98 mph range. His primary secondaries are a hard, tight slider and a north south curve-ball. He has a change-up that he rarely throws as it doesn’t get much success. The slider is especially effective, generating a 34% CSW with a .152 batting average against at the MLB level in 2023. The biggest concern with Williams is command and the walk rates that come with that. He was at 12% in Triple-A and 11% at the MLB level in 2023, which is relatively concerning.
There is potential SP2 type stuff here with some elite characteristics (99th percentile in extension) even with the command issues and high walk rates. Given Cleveland’s notoriety for pitching development, it’s easy to believe those concerns will get ironed out and he will reach that SP2 ceiling. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Coco Montes, 2B/SS, 26
A 15th round pick in 2018, Montes repeated Triple-A in 2023 and put up some gaudy numbers fueled by the hitter friendly PCL. Don’t be fooled by Montes hitting over 20 home runs in back to back years and putting up a .317 batting average. He’s never been on prospect radars, and most of his Triple-A metrics float in the below average to above average band. That’s not great for hitters aided by PCL environs. Montes was DFA’d in September while in Triple-A to get him off the 40-man roster and went unclaimed, which is always a good barometer of what the other 29 teams think of him. He’s nothing more than org depth or a utility player on a second division team at this point. A great name, which might generate a small bit of quirky hobby interest, but that’s about it. (Ceiling 3)
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Reese Olson, P, 24
Olson has a starter’s arsenal and jumped onto prospect radars in 2022 after a really strong season in Double-A. That arsenal starts with a plus slider that has plus horizontal movement and generates a ton of whiffs and called strikes. He throws that pitch as much or even more than his mid-90’s four-seamer. Batters don’t have a ton of success against the fastball, hitting just .179 against it at the MLB level in 2023. The issue is that Olson struggles to throw strikes with the fastball and is one of the main reasons there are relief fears for Olson. Olson has ditched his curve-ball and added a sinker that has some much needed arm-side fade to it in the same velocity band as the four-seamer. His final pitch is a change-up that has been at times his best pitch in the minors. Like the sinker, it has arm side fade and gets a fair bit of swing and miss.
Olson’s MLB debut wasn’t terrible, but it also wasn’t anything to write home about. He needs to find that fastball command to reach his mid-rotation upside and put to bed the concerns around his bullpen risk. There’s a Tier 2-type Ceiling, but Olson will be in Tier 3 until we see that command in game action. (Ceiling 7)
Tier None
Brendan White, P, 25
Another bullpen arm on the “Who are these guys?” list (I didn’t watch many Tigers games in 2023), White is a solid fastball/slider middle reliever with some future high leverage potential. There is a bit of variation on how his slider is being classified by statcast, with a sweeper being in there with a bit more spin and a little less velocity. It wasn’t in his reports, but I did catch a few that look like sweepers. The sweeper data doesn’t look great, so not sure if that is something he sticks with or not. The slider data, if you remove the sweepers, looks great. It’s more of a tight breaker that tunnels well off of the fastball. The fastball sits around 94 mph with plus VAA, allowing that slider to play up. White got a bit unlucky, and when hitters were sitting on his slider, it was an issue. As usual, White comes with typical spotty reliever command and that is the final strike against him having any short term relevancy. I liked the raw components, but until it comes together in a complete package, he’s not going to have any hobby relevancy. (Ceiling 3)
Houston Astros
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Grae Kessinger, UTIL, 26
I have a hard enough time deciding which spelling of grey or gray to use when writing the color and Kessinger’s parents throw this curve ball at me. Grae is a classic utility infielder, bench bat type of profile. Average tools across the board with the exception of power, which is more below average. Defensively he’s not going to blow you away at any position and he’s best at second base, but he can handle the left-side of the infield when called upon. Kessinger shows good plate discipline and regularly posts double digit walk rates. After showing some decent stolen base numbers, he didn’t run at all in 2023, stealing two bases out of four attempts spread across Double-A, Triple-A, and the MLB levels. There’s really not anything to hang your hat on with Kessinger from a hobby perspective currently or in the future and that tickets him for Tier None. (Ceiling 3)
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Alec Marsh, P, 25
Marsh was somewhat lost in the shuffle of the Royals big potential, 2018 draft picks that have had mixed results at best with Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch IV, and Kris Bubic. Now their best young pitcher may potentially be a trade acquisition with Cole Ragans, at least for the moment. Marsh, a 2019 MLB Comp Round B draft pick, has a chance to be part of that starting mix moving forward.
Marsh got called up at the end of June and started or pitched in a follower role for the remainder of the season. While the overall numbers look pretty bad, there were glimmers of hope with two nine strikeout games and one 11 strikeout game. The main issue is his fastball consistency. When it’s on, it’s getting whiffs in the upper half of the zone. When it’s off, it’s being left middle-middle and getting smashed, and that happened all too frequently in 2023. Beyond the fastball, Marsh has a full starter’s complement of pitches with a slider, curve ball, change-up, and a sinker. That slider can sometimes show sweeper action, and for each of these secondaries, when Marsh keeps them low, he’s successful.
Marsh has a long way to go, but there is an SP3 ceiling here. At the moment, because of the influx of free agent veteran arms, Marsh is currently ticketed for Triple-A. That’s probably a blessing in disguise so that Marsh can hopefully address the weaknesses exposed at the MLB level. While the ceiling is an SP3, the floor is pretty low as an org depth, swing-man type of pitcher. (Ceiling 5)
Tier None
Samad Taylor, 2B/OF, 25
Prep hitter taken by Cleveland in 2016, Taylor finally debuted eight years laters in Kansas City after being traded for the second time in his career, at that time for Whit Merrifield. This off-season Taylor was traded to the Mariners for a player to be named later or cash as part of a 40-man squeeze as the Royals have decided to sign various lower-level veteran free agents to kinda sorta pretend like they are going to compete in 2024.
Taylor is sort of what he’s always been - a speed merchant that doesn’t provide much else of value. He can put the ball over the fence, but it’s not his forte. He does take a lot of walks so the speed can be put to use. There’s been too high of a strikeout rate at times that detract from that high walk rate. If Taylor can keep the K rate under 20% with double digit walk rates, there’s a second-division every day center-fielder or second baseman for a few years. Imagine something like a .240 hitter with 5 to 10 home runs and 30 - 40 stolen bases that probably gets 120 - 140 games. If he returns to that close to 30% K rate we saw in his early minor league days and in his small MLB sample, he probably bounces around as a bench option with his floor ending up as a Terrance Gore type of role. (Ceiling 4)
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Nolan Schanuel, 1B, 22
The first player from the 2023 MLB draft to make the major leagues because they were somewhat in desperation mode trying to compete with their last gasp of the Ohtani Angels era. Schanuel does have an MLB ready hit tool, so it wasn’t a total shock even if it was a bit surprising.
The hit tool is definitely plus with an advanced approach at the plate and the ability to put the bat on the ball. I watched plenty of late-season Angels games where Schanuel would take pitches on the outer half of the plate and regularly deposit them over the shortstop’s head and in front of the left-fielder. If you take a look at his spray chart, he’s focusing on putting the ball up the middle and to the opposite field (left-field) rather than pulling the ball. He’s also putting up a ground ball rate around 50%. The issue with that approach is that he isn’t going to hit for power and did not get a single round tripper in his small 29 game MLB sample so far. If he’s a sub-20 home run hitter at first base, that’s just never going to be enough to be a Tier 1 bat and it will be a challenge to maintain Tier 2 relevancy. He’s going to have to regularly hit over .300 for that Tier 2 ranking, which is definitely in the cards. He’s not going to steal a ton of bases, but he runs well enough to potentially get to 10 or so on occasion. He’s a good defender, so he’s not going to get pushed into the DH role like some first base only types are at risk of.
Schanuel has the draft pedigree (11th overall pick in 2023), notoriety (first 2023 Draft player to debut and spending almost no time in the minors), prospect list status (anywhere from 1 to 3 on Angels pre-season lists more than likely), and a plus hit tool. I get some John Olerud vibes with a touch less in game power. Not a real hobby darling, but Olerud also was part of the Junk Wax Era so there is some mitigating context. For now, Schanuel is a Tier 2 player given the context above, although I will need to see some pull-side power growth for me to be comfortable investing in the long term. (Ceiling 7)
Tier 3
Trey Cabbage, OF/1B/DH, 26
A slugger with strikeout issues that profiles best as a DH, Cabbage was designated for assignment after the Angels signed free agent pitcher Matt Moore. The Astros swooped in with a lottery ticket arm in Carlos Espinosa in exchange for Cabbage.
Cabbage hit 30 home runs at Triple-A in 2023 and struck out 30% of the time. Not exactly the traditional 30/30. Along with some above average speed, Cabbage has taken advantage of the new rules to go from a single digit stolen base profile to easily double digits, stealing 32 bags at Triple-A in 2023. So he’s actually a 30/30/30 player! He’s usually good for average to above average walk rates, and the BABIP gods are typically in his favor as well leading to decent batting average and OBP. His 22 game MLB sample in 2023 was not good as he was approaching a strikeout in 50% of his at bats.
The floor for Cabbage is the all too familiar archetype of the Quad-A slugger that provides some org depth, maybe a few hot weeks or months, but is unable to make it work for a full season. The ceiling is something like a Brett Rooker with speed as an everyday DH on a second division team. It’s a borderline Tier 3/Tier None profile. It’s possible that Houston is able to turn him into that Tier 3 everyday player given their analytics driven development, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. However, I wouldn’t be looking to invest my Hobby dollars here. (Ceiling 6)
Tier None
José Soriano, P, 25
A 2016 International Free Agent signing of the Angels for the small sum of $70K, Soriano has endured two Tommy John surgeries almost back to back in 2020 and 2022 before finally debuting in 2023. Add in a Rule 5 stop with the Pirates in 2021 and an eventual return back to the Angels just prior to the second surgery and it’s been anything but a smooth ride for Soriano. To make it to the big leagues while missing all of that time is impressive in and of itself, but it also means that Soriano has completely shifted to a full-time bullpen role
Soriano is primarily a two pitch guy with a fastball and curveball. He’ll throw two variations of the fastball - a four seamer that approaches triple digits and a sinker around 97 mph. The curveball is a near elite pitch - one of the best you will see out of the pen with a 43% CSW. He ditched the change-up he used to throw, but he did sneak in a 90 mph slider a few times in 2023 that also looked really good. The issue, like with the majority of relievers with ridiculously good stuff, is the command. It’s bad at this point as evidenced by his 12.4% walk rate and 1.33 WHIP in 2023. If he can wrangle the command, he’s got high leverage stuff all day. Until then, he’s a Tier None reliever, but he’s one to keep an eye on. (Ceiling 4)
Victor Mederos, P, 22
Stop me if you’ve heard this before - a very recent draft pick skips minor league level(s) and gets pushed to the big leagues by the Angels. OK, I guess you have heard this before. Mederos was a 6th round pick of the Angels in the 2022 MLB Draft and spent the remainder of 2022 at High-A. In 2023, Mederos started at the next level, Double-A, and got two small stints during the summer at the MLB level, resulting in three appearances in relief.
Mederos has spent all of his minor league time as a starter, but since draft day there’s been questions if he can make it as a rotation piece given his command concerns. Those command issues have persisted in the minors with double digit walk rates and sky-high WHIP’s. His slider is his best pitch, and his whiff pitch. As a reliever, he’s probably a sinker/slider type with a curveball with horizontal movement as a change of pace pitch. As a starter, he’s got a change-up to add in there as needed, but didn’t throw it once in his three MLB appearances in 2023.
Mederos as a starter could find his way to a back-end rotation role. As a reliever, he’s potentially a high leverage option, but he’s probably pretty far down the pecking order in a large group of young Angels relief arms that have big time stuff and lack command. It’s going to take quite a bit for the Hobby to get interested here. (Ceiling 3)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Emmet Sheehan, P, 24
Sheehan was not a name that many, if any, were mentioning as a potential 2023 Dodgers starter leading into the season. From the Dodgers’ prospect ranks, that was primarily Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and Ryan Pepiot. Injuries and underperformance led the Dodgers to call up Sheehan and he showed some impressive promise.
Sheehan’s main weapon is a mid-90’s fastball with a low release point that elevates as it gets to the plate. When he kept the fastball up, he was absolutely cruising through the opponent's lineups. If it was middle middle or middle down, it became a pitch MLB hitters could crush. His secondaries are a mid-80’s, tight slider and an arm-side fading change-up in the low 80’s. Every now and then he threw a sweeper as well, but it was so infrequent that it’s not really something to consider in his evaluation. Each of his pitches showed promise in different ways and at different times. He was inconsistent, and command had a lot to do with that. High walk rates and a high ERA were the main negative results of that inconsistency at the MLB level. High strikeout rates driving by plus swinging strike rates were the positive outcomes, with the slider producing plus ground ball rates.
Sheehan has SP2 upside with a ton of strikeouts if he can harness the command. The entire arsenal is full of potential, which we saw flashes of during his debut. The Dodgers context is good for the Hobby as a collectable team, but it also can be a negative as the Dodgers don’t hesitate to trade from the young assets (see Ryan Pepiot). In addition, the Dodgers don’t hesitate to manage their rotation, and Sheehan could be a victim of that in the short term. If Sheehan simply can’t consistently put the command together, then there is the easy out the Dodgers may take of pushing him into a high leverage relief role. They should give him every opportunity to start although we should also be aware that it just may not end up working out. Putting all that context aside, this is a high risk Tier 2 pitcher for me, one that I wouldn’t mind taking a few Hobby gambles on. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
Jonny DeLuca, OF, 25
A 25th rounder of the Dodgers in 2019, DeLuca’s strong 2022 had him on prospect watchlists, but a deep Dodgers system at that time kept him off of or far down 2023 pre-season lists. His 2023 performance proved that 2022 was not a fluke as he busted through Double-A and Triple-A with his customary sub-20% K rates while posting average to above average walk rates. He added in 17 home runs and 12 stolen bases in those 73 combined minor league games. The 24 MLB games were fine offensively at a high level, but outside of showcasing his plus outfield defense with his glove and speed, DeLuca didn’t force the Dodgers hand to keep him up.
While his rookie card will be with the Dodgers, DeLuca was traded to the Rays this off-season along with Ryan Pepiot as part of the Tyler Glasnow and Manny Margot deal. I expect we will get a 2024 Topps Update Series DeLuca card in his Rays gear (and obviously in other second-half of the year releases). The outfield defense is superb and at the very least he’s getting a short-side platoon job. A full-time role is something I could see on less analytically focused teams, but the Rays love themselves a platoon, so DeLuca is going to have to prove he can hit righties. While he did that quite well in the minors, it did not happen in the super small 24 game MLB sample. If he can hit righties enough to get that full-time role, he’s easily a Tier 3 player with potential to spike higher given the amount of defensive highlights we’ll see from him. He battles in the box which will lead to high OBP’s, has that 20/20 potential, and will be a standout on defense. I wouldn’t go out of my way for his cards, but I don’t mind a small piece in case he continues the upward momentum we’ve seen from him the past two years. (Ceiling 7)
Tier None
None
Miami Marlins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jacob Amaya, 2B/SS, 25
Traded by the Dodgers for the defense-first shortstop Miguel Rojas prior to the 2023 season, Amaya was somewhat considered a younger version of Rojas with a potentially better hit tool. However, trading with the Dodgers is often an exercise in futility (with a few notable exceptions like Yordan Alvarez and Oneil Cruz) and this may be another example of that.
Amaya’s plate approach is solid, regularly posting low twenties or high teen strikeout rates while regularly taking walks in the double digit percentiles. Above average power, above average zone contact rates, keeps the outside swing rates low, and good hard contact rates all portend an above average hitter. There are some ground ball concerns and his patience at the plate can become too passive as shown by low swing rates. The defense is not in question - he can easily stick at shortstop and should actually be starting there in 2024 for the Marlins over the uninspiring collection of players they currently have ahead of him on their roster.
There’s a solid major league infielder here that should put up high averages and OBP’s with double digit home runs. The Ceiling isn’t much higher than that though, which keeps Amaya in Tier 3 for me. (Ceiling 6)
Tier None
Dane Myers, OF, 27
Myers was a 6th round choice of the Tigers in 2017 but didn’t really put a full season of games together until 2022. It was a pretty strong season at Double-A that year with a wRC+ of 120 with 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Detroit didn’t add him to their 40-man roster and Miami then scooped up Myers in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2023 season. Myers made his debut on the Fourth of July and he went 2 for 3 with an RBI with both hits being singles - not exactly fireworks, but I’m sure it felt like it for Myers.
Myers is the prototypical bench outfielder. He can play center-field, he can run, he can hit for average power, and he started to show a viable MLB plate approach in the minors in 2023 with a double digit walk rate and a sub-20% strikeout rate. This is new for 2023, so it’s hard to know if this sticks, but it’s promising. The majority of the data looks to be floating around the average range - exit velocities, contact rates, swing rates, etc. It’s all just above average, average, or just below average. The ground ball rate is above average to poor, but he’s got enough speed where it’s not the end of the world.
He’s on the short side of the platoon, and he’s starting to get close to aging out of long-term production as he gets close to 28 years old. A nice find from a real baseball perspective, but I’m skeptical there’s everyday reps for Myers outside of a random year or two with a bottom of the barrel team. (Ceiling 4)
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier None
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Sal Frelick, OF, 23
Injury delayed Frelick’s MLB debut and he didn’t set the world on fire when he did debut. I had him as a Tier 2 prospect in our 2021 Bowman Draft Product Preview because of the plus hit and speed tools and just enough pop to move the needle. I still believe that to be the case, but I also acknowledged that Tier 2 is the top end of his outcomes.
In his 57 game debut, we saw the advanced plate approach with a 13% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate. The speed is there with an 82nd percentile in Sprint Speed, even with just 7 stolen bases in those 57 MLB games. The power output was just three home runs, which is the lower end of the projection I envisioned spread out over a full season. I was projecting in that 10 - 15 range back in 2021, and still think that is in the cards. However, given the initial power data indicators (exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate, etc.) looking even poorer than I was expecting, I don’t hold out hope for Frelick reaching the 20 home run mark any time soon. Especially with the ground ball-heavy approach we saw from him in 2023.
At the moment, Frelick’s not delivered on my initial Tier 2 slotting and slides into Tier 3 because we are fickle hobby creatures. However, I will still put a higher, Tier 2 type of Ceiling on Frelick as there is still a .300 hitter with 30 stolen bases and 15 home runs type of potential. (Ceiling 7)
Tier None
Abner Uribe, P, 22
One of the most electric young relief arms in baseball, the 22 year old averages 99 mph with his sinker. He pairs that with a high-80’s slider with a tight horizontal break. Both pitches generate a ton of strikes and are difficult to square up. The main issue is the command - he gives up way too many walks and regularly is missing his spots outside of the zone. The slider is a particularly bad offender in this regard as he regularly misses to the glove side with it. If you take a look at the pitch plot for the slider, there are two sliders in the arm-side third of the plate and about 10 that have missed on the plate on the arm side. The amount of sliders that missed the plate to the glove side by a large margin is astonishingly high.
There is an obvious Tier 3, high leverage arm lurking here with Uribe. However the fringe command is going to continue to lead to astronomical walk rates and suppress that Ceiling and usage. (Ceiling 4)
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Jordan Balazovic, P, 25
At one point a promising starting pitching prospect in Minnesota, Balazovic has faded quite a bit and is now a bullpen/swingman type. As recently as 2022 he was being ranked in the top 5 Twins prospects pretty much across the industry and now he’s lucky to end up on the back-end of Minnesota’s top 30. After a disastrous 2023, the Twins have moved Balazovic to the bullpen almost exclusively and that likely doesn’t change moving forward without some significant changes.
Balazovic has a four pitch arsenal featuring a mid-90’s riding fastball. His secondaries are a tight slider, a curveball, and seldom used change-up with arm-side fade. All four pitches have decent potential, but they end up living in the zone too much. For some pitchers, that’s actually good because they have swing and miss stuff. With Balazovic, that’s just not the case and the main way he’s going to succeed is by generating weak contact and ground balls. He’s getting the ground balls, but not the weak contact. And everything else isn’t working either, with a high walk rate and a low K rate not helping matters. Maybe there is some past prospect pedigree that gives people hope, but I don’t see it. Perhaps a change of scenery will help - until then, he’s a Tier None bullpen arm with a slightly higher ceiling due to the pedigree. (Ceiling 4)
New York Mets
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Ronny Mauricio, 2B/SS/3B, 22
Mauricio tore up his knee in the 2023 Dominican Winter League, which was a sad development as he was on track to potentially getting the first crack at the Mets starting 3B job in 2024. He’s been high on prospect radars since he signed as a top 5 International Free Agent in 2017. He’s been in or around a top 10 Mets prospect since he signed every year, and similarly has regularly hung around the back half of Top 100 lists off and on through the years.
The profile for Mauricio has always been a long-levered power over hit athlete with a strong aversion to free passes. Since 2018, Mauricio has never posted a walk rate of 7% or better. For the most part, he’s kept his strikeouts low and contact rates better than average. He regularly puts up strong hard contact and exit velocity numbers as well. His ground ball rate is a bit high, partially because he’s looking to swing more than he’s looking to take the walk. A bit surprisingly Mauricio took advantage of the new minor league rules around stealing bases and put up back to back 20+ steal seasons. Given the rules are now at the MLB level as well, I wouldn’t bet against that happening, at least for the first few years of his MLB career.
Mauricio has the prospect pedigree, the collectable team, 25+ home run pop, and a rocket arm that will play anywhere on the diamond. He’s easily a Tier 2 player, and if the plate approach improves, there’s a potential top 50 player in the cards. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Grant Hartwig, P, 26
One of the many bullpen names I was unfamiliar with coming into this product preview, Hartwig has been a reliever his entire time in pro ball. He slings the ball almost side-arm from the right side in a somewhat deceptive motion. He is mostly a two pitch guy with a mid-90’s sinker and a low-80’s slider. He’s looking to get ground balls and weak contact with that approach and as he’s faced more advanced hitters in Triple-A and the MLB level, that’s not been easy. It’s unlikely he ever gets into a high leverage role, capping his Ceiling. A nice story as an undrafted free agent making it to the big leagues, but beyond that, there isn’t anything to drive Hobby interest. (Ceiling 1)
New York Yankees
Tier 1
Jasson Domínguez, OF, 21
Jasson has been one of the biggest and most hyped prospect names in baseball since he signed with the Yankees as part of the 2019 International Free Agent class. And not only from a real baseball perspective, but also a Hobby perspective. His 2020 Bowman Baseball 1st Bowman was the flag bearer for the pandemic-fueled run-up in the baseball card world. While the market isn’t what it was back then, I expect Jasson’s first rookie card found here to have at least some of that hype.
Jasson is not an easy evaluation - at times he looks like a world beater, and other times he looks like his hit tool is average, can’t lay off pitches that he can’t impact, and is a strangely awkward runner. Rumors of a poor attitude don’t help matters either. The power is not really in question - it’s easily plus. At times he’s struggled getting to that power while he gets used to the pitching, especially in his first go around at a level. But, that’s not always true, as he got an eight game debut at the MLB level and popped four home runs before blowing out his UCL and having to get Tommy John surgery. I’m not great at math, but that would put him on an 81 home run pace in a full season - clearly he’s going to break the home run record. From a defensive perspective, he can hold down center-field, but he’s not going to prevent a better defender from pushing him over to a corner. His arm was good enough for right field prior to the TJ surgery and we will just have to wait and see if that all comes back or not.
While Domínguez was famously compared to Mike Trout at one point, I don’t think he will ever reach that elite tier, top 10 hitter that was once envisioned. From a pure skills perspective, the most likely scenario is that he’s a very good top of Tier 2 hitter. Along the lines of a .260 - .280 average with high OBP’s due to strong walk rates, 25 - 35 home runs, and 20 - 30 stolen bases. The Yankees boost, the prospect pedigree, and the raw talent to be honest, get him into Tier 1. I’m just not sure if he can put everything together in the New York pressure cooker on a regular basis and would be looking to sell his cards any time the hype train is in full effect. (Ceiling 9)
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Oakland Athletics
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Zack Gelof, 2B, 24
I wrote up Gelof in our 2023 Bowman preview when he had his 1st Bowman base cards, and then again in our 2023 Bowman Chrome preview when he had his 1st Bowman auto cards. I was initially a bit skeptical given the inflated PCL stats as well as the team context and gave him a Tier 3 ranking, but it was a borderline Tier 2/Tier 3 rank. He did not disappoint when he debuted and I bumped him into Tier 2 for the Bowman Chrome review.
There weren't a ton of extra games played after that write-up, so nothing really changes here with his rookie card write-up. He’s easily a 20-20 bat with a .240 - .260 average that should accumulate a ton of stats on a bad A’s team. I have concerns with the strikeout rate and the flat swing not being able to handle being attacked at the bottom of the zone. From a defensive perspective, he’s good at second base and perhaps he can play left field as needed, but there isn’t likely a home for him elsewhere.
From a Hobby perspective, Gelof still straddles that Tier 2/Tier 3 line for me. I don’t think he will hit for enough average to be in that Tier 2 conversation long term. The 20-20 potential counterbalances that somewhat. He’s also a trendy name in fantasy circles, which does have some bleed over into the trading card space. The mess that is the Oakland franchise does also put some downward pressure on his cards as well. I will still slide him into Tier 2 given the debut performance and buzz, but I’d not want to go that deep here. (Ceiling 7)
Tyler Soderstrom, C/1B/DH, 22
If Gelof was the poster child for a strong debut in 2023, Soderstrom was the exact opposite. It was a completely uninspiring 41 games of a 35 wRC+ with a .160 average, 3 home runs, and a whopping 31% strikeout rate.
Soderstrom is a future middle of the order power bat with strong exit velocities, hard hit, and barrel rates. However, the hit tool has lagged behind, and that has a lot to do with swinging outside the zone and lacking patience at the plate. He falls roughly in that average to below average area with his walk rates and his strikeout rates probably will fall into the 25% - 30% range in his career. Defensively it’s been a question of if he can stick at catcher or not. So far, it’s not been terrible which should mean he can play a multi-purpose role as a backup to Shea Langeliers and fight for playing time at first base and designated hitter.
Soderstrom was at one point in the early days approaching that Tier 1 territory in the Hobby given his first round draft pedigree and power tool. At the moment, he’s on that Tier 2/Tier 3 borderline. If he had a debut like Gelof, he’s no doubt about it Tier 2 rookie. With that poor debut, I expect his Hobby interest will be mixed. That 30+ home run power tool and draft pedigree still have me pushing him into Tier 2. But all of the other context keeps me from being overly exuberant with that ranking. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Philadelphia Phillies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Johan Rojas, OF, 23
Rojas is a plus speed and plus defense player that has the potential for an above average, contact-driven hit tool. Rojas made the jump straight from Double-A in the summer as the Phillies were desperate for a strong outfield defender after Cristian Pache went on the IL. He was so good in center field that the Phillies didn’t look back and Rojas got the full-time role through the remainder of the regular season as well as the post-season.
In the 59 MLB game MLB debut, Rojas stole 14 bases in 15 attempts after already accumulating 30 at Double-A to start 2023. This is, beyond the defense, the calling card for Rojas. His Statcast sprint speed was in the 96th percentile. While many years ago I thought Rojas could grow into double digit power, he’s remained more on the lean, athletic side. In hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, Rojas should still be able to get to low double digit home runs, but it won’t be enough to move the needle. That leaves the hit tool, and it really is the biggest question mark that tips the scales from a low-end Tier 2 hitter to a Tier 3 hitter with Tier None downside. The top line results were in fact positive in Rojas’ MLB sample with a .302 average driven by an above average 86% zone contact rate and an unsustainable .410 BABIP. Rojas has never taken a lot of walks and that was accentuated at the MLB level with just a 3% walk rate. His strikeout rate had never been above 20% until his MLB time, when he got it all the way up to 26%. I am going to assume that it will regress positively back towards the 20% mark. This will be something to watch closely to see if it was a case of facing MLB pitching for the first time or his free swinging approach that was successful in the minors won’t work in the bigs.There are various other positive and negative data points to explore, but let's just say it’s a mixed bag of numbers that we will need to keep our eyes on.
Rojas is on the borderline of Tier 2 and Tier 3. Lacking the power and a hit tool that looks somewhat shaky makes it really hard for me to slide him up into Tier 2 even though I want to. For now, I’ll play it safe and stick him in Tier 3. However, if he again hits over .300 at the MLB level, those concerns mostly go away and he deserves a Tier 2 ranking. (Ceiling 7)
Tier None
None
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Henry Davis, OF/C, 24
The first overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Davis hasn’t exactly had a smooth ride since being drafted by the Pirates. Injuries and a position change have led to a bumpy ride as Davis made his debut in the summer after just 10 games at Triple-A.
The overall MLB stats from the debut did not look great as Davis struggled to stay above the Mendoza Line, finishing with a .213 batting average in 62 games. He did pop 7 home runs in that time, and he was also learning a new position in the outfield while playing twice the amount of games he’s ever played in his pro career. Fast forward to 2024 and, especially with Endy going under the knife, Davis is now going to be relied upon in some portion of his playing time to get back behind the dish where he still has a lot of improvements to make.
Davis is a power first bat that has shown some signs in small samples that the hit tool is still above average or better. That will allow Davis to get to that power in-game. Across three levels in 2023, he hit 19 home runs while maintaining above average walk rates and not striking out too much, even if he was at 27% at the MLB level.
Davis is on that Tier 2/Tier 3 borderline. There is a potential for a catcher penalty - in this case it wouldn’t be losing reps as his off days would be spent in the outfield or at DH, but it would put him in harm’s way more. He hasn’t lit the prospect world on fire at any of his stops. However, the power potential and prospect pedigree of a former first overall pick outweigh those concerns enough at the moment for me to squeak him into Tier 2. Even with that ranking, I would avoid paying for his cards as I think we’ve still got some more bumps in the road. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
Endy Rodríguez, C, 23
Endy was acquired from the Mets as part of the three team trade that ended with Joe Musgrove heading to the Padres and Joey Lucchesi heading to the Mets (LOL). One of the more unknown prospects when that trade happened, Endy has blossomed into one of the best young catching prospects and rocketed his way to a 2023 debut. Sadly, similar to fellow Series 1 rookie Ronny Mauricio, Endy had a major injury playing in the Dominican Winter League during this off-season. In Endy’s case, he ended up injuring his arm on a swing of the bat leading to Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery for his throwing arm.
Endy’s profile is led by his plus hit tool and is helped from a real baseball perspective in that he plays a competent backstop. In addition he’s athletic enough to move onto the diamond during his off-days including handling second base along the lines of Austin Barnes. The hit tool is highlighted by an advanced approach at the plate with consistent double digit walk rates and 20% or less strikeout rates through his entire minor league career. The power is more average to above average as Endy is taking a more contact approach. He doesn’t look to pull everything and regularly takes balls on the outer half of the plate to the opposite field. He did hit 25 home runs across three levels in 2022, but only 9 combined between Triple-A and the majors in 2023. So the power is there if he ever decides to flip that switch. He’s got some speed even if he rarely looks to steal bases. It’s something to keep an eye on as it would help take him to the next level.
This is a borderline Tier 2/Tier 3 profile at the moment. If Endy was healthy, I likely would take the optimistic path and push him into Tier 2. There was a ton of buzz around his name in 2023 and he was going to have the starting job in Pittsburgh in 2024 prior to the injury. With that injury, he’s going to quickly fade from the mind of the Hobby. Add in the catcher penalty and that seals the Tier 3 ranking in the short term. Tier 2 type of interest could easily return with health and finding that power output from 2022. (Ceiling 7)
Nick Gonzales, 2B, 24
The Pirates 1st round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft at 7th overall, the opinions on Gonzales were all over the map during the lead up to the draft. At this point, it looks like the naysayers were on the correct side of those opinions as Gonzales looks like at best an average major-leaguer.
Gonzales has the power potential, but the swing and the contact skills have thus far prevented that from becoming a reality in game against advanced pitching. He swings outside the zone too much and all of his contact rates are below average. The contact issues lead to just average power data and stat lines. There’s not much stolen bases in the profile either to provide a high floor. Defensively he’s okay at second base, but there isn’t enough in the glove or the arm to overcome any offensive deficiencies.
As a bat first player, Gonzales had decent stats at Triple-A in 2023. His MLB debut stats, on the other hand, were simply bad. There has to be some changes to his approach and swing to be effective against MLB pitching. I’m not really sure I see that happening. He does have the draft pedigree and name value from being regularly in the Pirates top 10 prospects. That is the only reason I am giving him one last chance as a Tier 3 player. But I would not spend a dime of my own money here as I think he eventually drifts into Tier None territory and struggles to find a starting job in Pittsburgh. (Ceiling 5)
Jared Triolo, 3B/2B, 26
I play in some deep dynasty and fantasy leagues, and when I saw Triolo come up to make his debut, I wasn’t interested. Turns out my impression of Triolo as a high end defensive third baseman without an impactful offensive profile. Well, I was wrong, at least in the short term as Triolo hit .298 with a .388 OBP with three home runs and six stolen bases in 54 games.
The hit tool is solid, with double digit walk rates at all stops the last two years. The speed is there - he had 77th percentile sprint speed per Statcast at the MLB level. The power is average and should be in that 10-15 range with an outside shot at 20 if he gets a full-time role.
Given Triolo’s plus defensive chops, he’s got the floor of a utility player role at pretty much anywhere on the diamond outside of catcher. The average to above average offensive tools keep him mildly Hobby relevant, but I wouldn’t go overboard here. Of course, I could always be wrong again on Triolo and he could turn into a no-doubt everyday player. (Ceiling 5)
Tier None
Carmen Mlodzinski, P, 24
Health issues, inconsistency, and a constant tinkering of his pitch arsenal has eventually led to a full-time bullpen role for what was once considered a mid to back-end rotation starter. The Pirates moved Mlodzinski into the bullpen in 2023 and he had a strong MLB debut, at least from a top line perspective. A 2.25 ERA with a 3-3 record and one save was basically Mlodzinski dancing through raindrops in a hurricane without getting wet. His xERA was almost two runs higher at 3.98 with the FIP and xFIP numbers even higher. A 77% left on base rate, partially driven by a 12% walk rate, is simply not sustainable.
Mlodzinski still has the leftovers of a starter's arsenal with a four-seam fastball, sweeper, change-up, and cutter. Each pitch had varying degrees of effectiveness with the cutter probably being the one that he should ditch as he tightens up that arsenal in a relief role. The inconsistent fastball velocity that plagued him as a starter is now less of a problem as a reliever.
Now that Mlodzinski is pitching out of the pen, any potential Hobby interest has walked out the door. It’s a success for the Pirates from a real baseball perspective, especially if he can continue to defy the underlying metrics. However, that’s a really hard thing to do and he most likely comes back to earth, settling in as a low leverage, Tier None relief arm. (Ceiling 3)
Quinn Priester, P, 23
Priester was a prep-righty that the Pirates drafted in the first round of the 2019 MLB draft. He’s been on prospect radars and essentially a top 10 Pirates prospect since then.
Priester has a full starting pitcher arsenal with two fastball variations - a sinker and a four-seamer that both come in around 93 mph. His three secondaries are a change-up, curve-ball, and slider. The curve-ball has been the most promising pitch throughout his development, but none of the secondaries really showed up during his debut.
Priester started eight games and followed in two more, regularly getting hit hard, never going more than six innings, and gave up 12 home runs in those 10 games. His ERA was unsurprisingly a rough 7.74. He pitched much better in Triple-A in 2023, but he still hasn’t shown the ability to drive a lot of strikeouts. He’s relying heavily on ground ball rates and soft contact through primary usage of his sinker.
Priester should have every opportunity to seize a rotation spot in a lackluster Pittsburgh rotation in 2024, either on Opening Day or at some point early in the season. His profile has trended towards a back-end rotation option and without the strikeout potential, the Hobby interest will also trend down into Tier None territory. I was interested early on in Priester as a dynasty fantasy asset and thus his Hobby potential as well, but those days are long gone. (Ceiling 4)
Alika Williams, SS, 24
The Rays comp round A pick (37th overall) in the 2020 MLB Draft, Williams has always been what we’ve known him to be. That’s a slick defender that can pick it at shortstop that provides very little offensive value. The Rays were able to flip Williams to the Pirates in June for reliever Robert Stephenson who the Rays optimized and turned into an integral part of their bullpen down the stretch and into the playoffs.
There’s really not much more that needs to be said - slick defenders with little offensive impact rarely have full-time roles for lengthy periods of time. Williams will be a defensive replacement or injury fill-in for the foreseeable future. That type of profile doesn’t have any Hobby interest and I would spend my money elsewhere. (Ceiling 2)
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Matt Waldron, P, 27
Another player who gave me that Chris Farley No Idea dot gif reaction when I read his name, Waldron was an 18th round pick of Cleveland back in 2019 as a senior that took just $5K to sign. The Padres acquired Waldron as the PTBNL in the Mike Clevinger deal and there really wasn’t much in the profile to get excited about at the time. However, after joining the Padres, Waldron began throwing a knuckleball and suddenly he became an MLB caliber pitcher.
Besides the knuckleball, Waldron throws three varieties of his fastball - a sinker, a four-seamer, and a cutter. He’ll also mix in a slider with a big horizontal break in the sweeper mold that is a nice change of pace, catch a hitter off-guard type of pitch. The sinker is probably the most effective non-knuckleball pitch, but none of them are better than average. The knuckleball, because so few hitters see it, is the calling card. It’s rarely if ever seen from other pitchers, so hitters really aren’t sure how to handle it, and it gives Waldron a swing-man, long-relief viability.
Normally a pitcher in that type of role holds zero Hobby interest. The quirkiness of the knuckleball does bump that zero interest to mild interest, but it’s still a Tier None profile. (Ceiling 3)
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Marco Luciano, SS, 22
I’ve long been a Marco Luciano truther, but it’s been tough out in the prospect streets. Luciano simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy enough to put together a regular string of games over a season to let us know if the Ceiling we’ve all dreamed on is still in the cards.
Luciano’s has plus power driven by natural strength and big time bat speed. The hit tool should be above average, but the lack of reps has put him behind in being able develop an approach that will let him optimize his in game power. He’s often too aggressive leading to bad counts and swing and miss. His contact and ground ball rates were downright bad in the very small MLB sample showing that he was not ready to face that level of pitching.
While Luciano is a shortstop and supposedly will have a chance to win that job in Spring Training, his eventual home is probably third base. He has the arm for third, and he doesn’t really have the fluidity or natural instincts to play shortstop at the MLB level. With only 18 games at Triple-A and 14 games at the MLB level, the best thing for Luciano is likely spending a big chunk of time at Triple-A in 2024 to work on the hit tool. If he is off the MLB roster, he will need to tear up Triple-A to counteract the downward pricing pressure that will put on his cards. I am slotting him into Tier 2 because of the prospect pedigree (once considered as a Top 10 overall prospect) and power potential of 30+ home runs. The risk is very high, and putting your money into his cards is not for the faint of heart. (Ceiling 9)
Tier 3
Luis Matos, OF, 22
When I first started watching Matos in the minors a few years ago, I was struck by the bat speed and how much intent there was in his swings. His approach and swing have all been under constant tweaking and development so that it would play against advanced pitching. While that has maintained the potential for a plus hit tool with a more balanced setup, it has kept his power tool from finding much traction. Given his bat speed, I was convinced that he would eventually find plus in-game power, but I think that assumption was probably a mistake.
At this point Matos looks more like a 20/10 player with a .280 average and high OBP’s at his peak. He’s a very capable defender with good routes and a good glove in center field, but is now in theory blocked by the Giants International signing of the 2022 KBO MVP Jung Hoo Lee. I think that means we see Matos start the year in Triple-A so that he can continue to get regular at bats. That will continue to tamp down whatever is left of the Hobby hype that we saw a few years ago. There is still Tier 2 potential with Matos given his talents, but I’m pretty much resigned to him ending up as more of a solid, above average player rather than a potential All-Star. (Ceiling 6)
Tier None
Keaton Winn, P, 25
After turning down the Giants as a 20th round pick in 2017, the Giants upped the ante and took Winn in the 5th round of the 2018 MLB Draft. At this point, shockingly, Winn may be the best pick the Giants made in that draft (RIP my Joey Bart collection).
Winn has a four pitch arsenal that starts with a plus high-80’s split finger. He throws two fastball variations - a four-seamer and a sinker, both in the 96 mph range. His final pitch is a seldom-used slider that has some tight horizontal movement. Winn’s approach with that arsenal is to drive ground ball contact and keep the ball in the zone to limit walks. It’s a classic back-end rotation arm that the Giants will mix and match in spot starts and follower roles. Or at least, that’s what they did under prior management - it’s yet to be known how Bob Melvin will run his staff.
An interesting pop-up arm that was essentially off my radar prior to 2023, Winn is more real baseball value than Hobby value at the end of the day. If the strikeout rates jump up and he has a guaranteed job, then it’s worth taking a look at again. (Ceiling 4)
Seattle Mariners
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Bryan Woo, P, 24
Insert the requisite Ric Flair gif (it’s not an original joke, but I can’t help myself). Woo and Bryce Miller will likely be compared and linked for as long as they both remain in the Mariners young rotation moving forward as both were young pitching arms that had somewhat unexpected call-ups for Seattle in the first half of 2023. And both stuck in the rotation with varying degrees of success.
Woo throws three different varieties of his fastball - a four-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter. Both the four-seamer and the sinker are plus or better pitches. His main secondaries are a slider in the low 80’s and a change-up around 89 mph. Neither pitch has had much success at the MLB level, especially against left handed batters (Woo is right handed). One, and ideally two of the cutter, slider, or change-up take the next step for Woo.
As it stands currently, Woo is in that SP3/SP4 range. Can he take the next step where he goes more than 6 innings (something he didn’t do once last year at the MLB level) and has an effective third pitch? He pitched almost 130 innings last year, a huge jump from the 57 innings in 2022, his first year back from the Tommy John surgery he had leading into the 2021 MLB Draft. Do the gloves come off, or is Woo again going to be heavily managed? It’s really tough to know unless you're inside the building. The Ceiling is an SP2 with two dominant fastball versions with a third pitch that is setup by those heaters, which would be a Tier 2 pitcher. For now I’ll go with the optimistic Tier 2 ranking and bet on Woo taking that next step. It does come with a heavy note of caution and I wouldn’t recommend going all in here until we see him have a full season under his belt and if his secondaries can step up. (Ceiling 8)
Tier 3
Emerson Hancock, P, 24
Hancock was a former 1st round pick of the Mariners that has been surpassed by other young arms in Seattle. Some of that has been injury related, and some of that has been performance-based. Unfortunately, the injury issues followed him to the MLB level where he was shut down after just 3 games with a shoulder strain.
Hancock has a four pitch arsenal with two variations of the fastball - a four-seamer and a sinker. Both sit around 91-94 mph. His two secondaries are a mid-80’s, hard slider and a mid-80’s change-up with good arm-side fade. With the lower end of the velocity range, Hancock succeeds by limiting hard contact and commanding his pitches around the edges of the zone. There had been some recent improvements in his strikeout rate, but it was still a sub-10 K/9 at his most successful stop in Double-A in 2023.
Hancock has draft pedigree which continues to give him some notoriety, but there have been so many success stories with young Mariners arms (Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, Woo) that he’s really gotten lost in the shuffle. The lack of strikeout stuff and the continued injury issues further push Hancock from having much Hobby relevancy. In the short term, he’s a Tier 3 arm because of that pedigree, but I would avoid investing any money in his cards until I saw significant changes in the profile. (Ceiling 6)
Cade Marlowe, OF, 26
You can almost take the below opinion on Canzone and copy paste it here for Marlowe, then tweak it for Marlowe (I was tempted!). Marlowe was someone that I was a bit more bullish on when I did my initial evaluation, this time for 2022 Bowman Chrome. At that time I had him as a Tier 3 player. And that doesn’t change much either.
While Marlowe may not have the 450 foot home run power of Canzone, he still has enough to get the ball over the fence in the double digit range. Unlike Canzone, Marlowe has a strong speed component to his profile and should regularly steal 20 - 30 bases. That speed also helps make him a much better defender than Canzone and can play all three outfield positions. Canzone doesn’t strike out nearly as much as Marlowe, and that really is the biggest obstacle for Marlowe to getting every day reps. And that may never happen, as he’s never had a strikeout rate under 25%. This pushes him from a top of the lineup option to more of a bottom of the lineup option, and puts downward pressure on his Hobby relevancy.
I am going to keep Marlowe in Tier 3 albeit with a lower Ceiling than I would have given him in the fall of 2022. His Ceiling is 20+ home runs with 30 to 40 steals and palatable batting average and OBP numbers. That is probably most ambitious with the home run totals, especially in pitcher-friendly Seattle, but that’s why we call it a Ceiling. (Ceiling 6)
Tier None
Prelander Berroa, P, 23
As a Giants fan, I am familiar with the Prelander. I am also familiar with the Highlander, but that’s because I watched plenty of movies and television back in the 80’s and 90’s. Prelander is now on his fourth team, which is typically a red flag, although it’s all been through trades, so there is some interest by teams acquiring him. The latest move was by the White Sox, acquiring Berroa along with Zach DeLoach and a draft pick for reliever Gregory Santos.
Prelander has big time stuff and very little command of it. It’s the classic future high leverage reliever profile. That arsenal has been slimmed down to a mid to high-90’s four-seam fastball and a hard, mid-80’s slider. If Berroa ever finds anything remotely close to average control, he’s a no doubt closer. He regularly walks the yard, and that’s just not going to make any manager comfortable handing him the ball in the highest leverage situations. He spent the majority of 2023 in Double-A where he had a 14% walk rate (yikes!).
The stuff is undeniable and it’s why Berroa has had some buzz if you play in dynasty fantasy baseball leagues. If you don’t, then you probably haven’t heard of Berroa, and there’s no reason for him to be on your radar for now. He’s like the other future potential closers in this product as a Tier None arm with an elevated Ceiling. (Ceiling 4)
Isaiah Campbell, P, 26
Campbell has followed the path of so many pitching prospects, starting as an interesting mid-rotation potential arm with a starter’s arsenal. Injuries and missed time pushed that projection to a back-end arm with bullpen risk and a thinning out of the arsenal. And by the time the MLB debut happens, Campbell has become a low leverage reliever and is down to two pitches. Traded to the Red Sox in the off-season for Luis Urias, Campbell is going to be fighting for a bullpen role in Boston and the odds aren’t in his favor other than he is already on the 40-man roster.
Campbell is currently splitting his pitches between a mid-90’s four seam fastball and a hard mid-80’s slider. Statcast did record some sweeper usage as well, but it was not a great pitch, so we’ll see if he keeps throwing it or if he was simply experimenting with it in 2023. The four-seamer was more effective when hitters didn’t make contact, putting up decent swinging strikes and called strike numbers. The slider was more effective at generating weak contact. It’s a decent combo and should work in middle relief, and perhaps in a high leverage role at some point. There are still some command concerns, as you find with most relievers, as evidenced by an 11% walk rate in his 28 innings in the MLB in his debut season. While Campbell may provide some real baseball value, there is unlikely to be any Hobby value here. (Ceiling 2)
Dominic Canzone, OF, 26
I evaluated Canzone for our 2023 Bowman Baseball Preview back in the spring of 2023 before his debut and I don’t think much has changed in my opinion since then. The main thing that has changed is that Canzone is now plying his trade in Seattle as opposed to Arizona as he was part of the package used to acquire Paul Sewald by the World Series runner-ups.
Canzone is a strong side platoon corner outfielder that has plus power and little else. He struggles against lefties, hitting just one home run out of 22 and hitting roughly 50 points less in batting average against same-handed pitching. In general, like most young hitters, he’s a fastball crusher, but struggles against everything else. Just an average defender, the bat really has to carry the profile, and that lack of an above average or better hit tool coupled with the obvious differences with his hitting splits leads me back to my original opinion. He’s a Tier None hitter with a shot at Tier 3 if he can get a lot more playing time so that he can drop 25 or more home runs at the MLB level. The hit tool issues and a crowded Seattle outfield, even with it just being J-Rod and everyone else, is going to likely keep him from getting to that Tier 3 Hobby relevance. (Ceiling 5)
St. Louis Cardinals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Luken Baker, 1B/DH, 26
Do you like massive human beings that can hit baseballs really far? Then have the Cardinals got a player for you! Seriously, is anyone interested? Because Baker is one of the many blocked prospects in St. Louis, and he has no obvious path to playing time.
Baker hit 33 home runs in Triple-A in 2023 and two at the MLB level in his 33 games for a total of 35 on the season. And that’s about the full extent of what Baker provides. Given his size, swing, and approach, he’s likely to never have an above average hit tool. The positives are the exit velocities, the hard hit rates, and the high walk rate potential. On the negative side, his strikeout rates typically being in the mid-20% range prior to crushing Triple-A in 2023, zone contact rates in Triple-A in 2023 just being average at 82%, and the struggles against MLB pitching in his small sample size debut, especially with whiffs and strikeouts. There’s no speed, as one would guess with a human being listed at 280 pounds, and defensively he can be used at first base, but really should be a full-time DH.
The floor is the familiar Quad-A slugger, with the ceiling being an Adam Dunn type of profile. Long term that Adam Dunn profile is just a Tier 3 player, even with that sexy Hobby power. It simply comes with nothing else. The only real way it gets to Tier 2 territory is either winning a home run title or two, breaking records, or being a major contributor to a Championship team, especially if it’s a collectable team like the Yankees (or even his current Cardinals team). Those outcomes are such long shots, it’s an easy pass because the Quad-A floor is much more of a reality. (Ceiling 6)
Tier None
José Fermín, 2B/3B, 24
Another player who was on my “Who?” list and he’s actually NOT a bullpen arm. That isn’t good, if you were keeping track. Fermín hasn’t been on prospect radars since he was an International Free Agent signing of Cleveland back in 2017 as a top 30 type in that class. It’s a very classic Cleveland profile, but the Cardinals picked him up for cash considerations after the 2022 season in what was likely a 40-man roster crunch.
The speed in theory is still there, but he’s just not running since he stole 28 bags at Single-A in 2019. He only had three total in his 51 combined games in 2023. The hit tool is driven by contact but there is very little impact. He had a very impressive 94% zone contact rate in his 20 Triple-A games and 91% in his 21 MLB games in 2023. His outside zone swing and contact rates are equally impressive. The lack of impact is evident when he’s never had double digit home runs in any professional season. Defensively, he’s best at second base due to poor arm strength, but he can still back up shortstop and third base in a pinch.
Fermín is a classic utility profile that will be on the fringes of 40 man rosters or starting in stints for second-division teams along the lines of Tony Kemp. That doesn’t drive any Hobby value. (Ceiling 2)
Tampa Bay Rays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Curtis Mead, 3B, 23
I can’t quit Mead, and I am going to say right off the top that this is a more biased write-up than usual. I loved what I saw from Mead when I did my 2022 Bowman Baseball Product Preview. Ever since, things have not exactly gone swimmingly for Mead, even though he has made it up to bigs. Injuries have been the main culprit as he got just 80 games in 2022 and 85 games in 2023.
Mead has a plus hit tool with above average power. The plate approach is advanced with double digit walk rates and never going above 23% with his K rate. I would regularly expect Mead to be under 20% once he gets a large MLB sample. His 2023 MLB sample was too small to read much into, but his Triple-A stint in 2023 has what we’d expect from an MLB-ready bat. He had a Zone Contact rate at 88%, a Hard Hit rate at 41%, and Average EV at 88.5 mph, and a Whiff rate at just 18%. Mead isn’t likely to be a masher - he has the juice to get the ball out, but he’s more focused on making solid contact to the gaps rather than doing the Isaac Paredes imitation of pulling everything down the line. Mead’s main negatives are a lack of speed and no real defensive home. He’s going to get a few chip-in steals, but he’s not got the speed for anything more than that. Defensively he has to be hidden due to his weaker arm. Typically that leads to teams putting this profile at second base, or even first base if the offense is good enough. The Rays strangely played him primarily at third base, but that was more of a decision based on need rather than talent. I still think Mead ends up at second base while backing up first base, third base, and getting the occasional designated hitter opportunities.
In 2022 I had Mead as a Tier 2 bat, and I will keep him there for his rookie cards. He sort of fell off the radar due to the injuries and lack of a splashy debut. I am still a believer in a .280 - .300 hitter with 20 home runs and just an overall really tough out at the plate. Tier 2 is the Ceiling, and I have a feeling he will be treated like a Tier 3 bat until we see a full time role and the production that should come with that. In Tampa, a full time role is probably going to be hard to come by. With that in mind, I wouldn’t spend heavily on Mead, although I would definitely consider bargain hunting. (Ceiling 7)
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Texas Rangers
Tier 1
Evan Carter, OF, 21
A little over a week into getting promoted to Triple-A for the first time at the tail end of August, Carter got his first MLB call-up when Adolis García went on the 10-day IL. It was a highly successful debut that led to a ton of hype as he put up a 180 wRC+ (eyes emoji) in a 23 game regular season stint. He also helped contribute to the Rangers playoff run to the World Series Championship, even if it didn’t come with as much loud noise as his regular season stats generated.
Carter does everything well with his plus hit tool carrying the profile. He’s a patient hitter who’s never posted less than double digit walk rates. Outside of the small MLB sample, he’s never had higher than a 22% strikeout rate. The swing can get a bit flat, and he can get a bit pull-happy at times, but those are really nit-picks more than anything. The power at the moment is just average. He’s a bit on the slighter side frame-wise and doesn’t produce the data numbers that make you think the power is coming soon. If he does start producing numbers, watch out, because the sky could be the limit. Carter is no slouch on the bases either as he has at least plus speed if not more. In the limited MLB sample, Statcast had him in the 96th percentile for 2023. Defensively he’s a really smooth outfielder although lacks enough of an arm to be a true right fielder. If Leody Tavares struggles at all, don’t be surprised if Carter takes over in center field.
I’ve been saying it for a while that Carter gives me a ton of Kyle Tucker vibes. It’s not an exact comp and it has a lot to do with them both being tall, skinny left handed batters with plus hit tools. It’s always been a conundrum as to why Tucker isn’t a Tier 1 player from a Hobby perspective as he quietly goes about hitting for a high average while approaching 30-30 type of outputs. I feel like Carter has the same type of risk - that he quietly goes about his business and just produces, but doesn’t have any eye popping elite seasons. That puts downward, Tier 2 pressure on his Hobby profile. In the short term, the prospect pedigree (he’s going to be the top Rangers prospect universally with 2024 team lists and probably a top 10 overall prospect) and end of 2023 hype train will get him treated like a Tier 1 player in the short term. I wouldn’t completely sell on that Tier 2 fear, but I also would not hesitate to take profits when the come your way. (Ceiling 9)
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Owen White, P, 24
Heading into 2023, Owen White was THE hottest arm in the Rangers’ system. Fast forward to 2024 and you have to start to wonder if White has a Ceiling higher than a back-end starter. White has always struggled with remaining healthy, and some nagging issues in 2023 are likely contributing factors to his stuff backing up. At some point, though, a player that can’t stay healthy is what he is and you have to evaluate them for what they are rather than what they could be if healthy.
The command and velocity really backed up with the four seam fastball averaging 93 mph and getting a paltry 6% swinging strike rate at Triple-A. The cutter and the slider were his two best pitches results-wise, while the curve ball wasn’t far behind. He also mixes in a sinker and a change-up for a five pitch starter’s type arsenal. In his small MLB sample, I regularly saw him missing the target, especially with his four-seamer and change-up.
There was legitimate mid-rotation upside with White coming into 2023 with that five pitch mix and plus command. If you believe what you saw throughout 2023, then he’s a back-end starter with swing-man bullpen risk. With the regular injury issues, it’s enough for me to completely back off of White and drop him into Tier None with a bit of a higher Ceiling than normally found here. (Ceiling 5)
Toronto Blue Jays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Spencer Horwitz, 1B, 26
A contact oriented 1B/DH type that can potentially also put in some corner outfield work, Horwitz is going to need an injury or a new team to make much of an impact in 2024 now that the Blue Jays have signed Justin Turner. Horwitz has never hit more than 12 home runs in any professional season since he was a late round pick of Toronto back in 2019. The approach is very patient, generating plus walk rates and strikeout rates. He looks to regularly pull the ball, but will take stuff on the outer half and dump it over the shortstop’s head in front of the left fielder. When watching his video, it’s almost always a ball being hit on the ground or on a line between the first and second baseman.
WIth his defensive homes, he’s going to have a tough time finding regular playing time on a first division roster. He’s kind of got that Nolan Schanuel-lite first base profile, but what he doesn’t have is a second division roster like the Angels. Similar to Schanuel, the floor is high while the ceiling is low. Unlike Schanuel, Horwitz doesn’t have much prospect or draft pedigree to artificially push him into Tier 2 territory. (Ceiling 6)
Davis Schneider, 2B, 25
Schneider came from relative obscurity as a late round pick, the 28th to be exact, in 2017 and off of Blue Jays’ prospect lists to crushing Triple-A and getting an MLB debut in 2023. He’s almost always shown plus or better walk rates, dropping below double digits only once, back in 2019 in rookie ball which he strangely played in three years straight after being drafted. That high walk rate has typically been balanced out by average or worse strikeout rates sitting in the mid to high twenty percent ranges. However, his Triple-A breakout not only included 21 home runs in 87 games, but it came with a sub-22% K rate. Neither that power nor that positive strikeout rate were something we had seen from Schneider before and that success was driven by all the elements coming together with strong hit data, good contact skills, pitch selectivity, and a flyball driven swing approach. In the small MLB sample, a lot of that reverted back to what we’d seen with Schneider prior to 2023, but he still maintained the ability to smack the ball out of the park with 8 home runs in just 35 games.
There are questions about where he can play on the field as defense isn’t his strong suit. He’s currently penciled in as the Blue Jays starting second baseman and that’s probably his best fit. He has played third base and left field as well, but he shouldn’t be an everyday player there. With a potential full time role to start the season at second base (unless we get someone like Addison Barger recapturing his 2023 Pre-Season hype or old-man Justin Turner recapturing his youthful second baseman days), does Schneider find his Triple-A results, or will he be just another guy? His ceiling outcome is probably in the neighborhood of Max Muncy (the Dodger, not the A’s prospect) which would be a fantastic outcome from a baseball perspective, but not really from a Hobby perspective. There could be some Tier 2 type of hype, but Muncy is essentially a Tier 3 player, and that’s where I will stick Schneider. The downside is a utility bench bat or Quad-A player that deserved to be in Tier None. (Ceiling 6)
Tier None
None
Washington Nationals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Jose Ferrer, P, 23
Not the famous actor and Oscar winner José Ferrer (who was also the uncle of George Clooney), this version is a lefty fastball/changeup middle innings reliever. He gets a ton of ground ball contact due to the sink on his heater and the changeup working well off of the sinker. Unfortunately that hasn’t translated into a ton of success and there really isn’t much to hang your hat on here. I guess the fact that he’s a lefty gives him an extended opportunity to be a reliever in the league, but there isn’t going to be any reason to know of Ferrer from a Hobby perspective. (Ceiling 1)