Welcome to the annual Bowman preview where we (Max and Joe) evaluate from a Hobby perspective every prospect with a 1st Bowman card in 2024 Bowman. A big time hitter who’s been on our radar for 5+ years (Dylan Crews), a prep outfielder who’s blown away all reasonable expectations (Walker Jenkins), and a prep shortstop who’s importance to the game potentially outweighs his high-end talent (Arjun Nimmala), this year’s Bowman release again delivers from top to bottom.
We classify each prospect in three ways - a Tier ranking, a Risk grade, and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Risk and Ceiling Grades
We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player.
Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, the reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
*Note - Players that are getting their first Bowman Flagship autographed card but should not have the 1st Bowman Logo as they had their 1st Bowman base cards in a previous year Bowman Flagship product have been included. They are marked with an asterisk and their original Bowman write-up is included here.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Gino Groover, 22, 3B
The Diamondbacks took Groover in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft and paid full slot money, showing Arizona’s belief in him and his plus hit tool. Sadly, in the ninth game of the 2024 minor league season at High-A, Groover, playing first base, broke his wrist on a bang bang play in a collision with the runner and likely will miss three to four months following surgery.
Groover is a corner bat that is more hit than power, although there is power potential in the bat. His hit tool is easily plus, showing patience while putting the bat to the ball on a regular basis with impact. He will spray the ball to all fields and looks natural in the box with a simple, smooth swing. He won’t run much, and better third base defenders will likely force him to first base and perhaps left field, but he’s adequate at third.
If Groover was healthy, he would be one of the guys I would love to get a piece of in this product. I get prime Justin Turner vibes here - just a guy you hate to see walking into the box against your team as he will be a very tough out. With the length of downtime, it’s going to be a slow burn on his card values, but that also may present a buying opportunity this summer, one I wouldn’t hesitate to take advantage of. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Atlanta Braves
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Isaiah Drake, 18, OF
Taken by his hometown Braves, there was some instant helium for the hobby with Drake. Throw in that he tripled and stole a base in a Spring Breakout game at age 18, and the hype got a little out of hand for a few weeks. Though it died down a little because of his struggles out of the gate, keep in mind this is a 2023 prep 5th Round pick, so starting at Single-A was aggressive to begin with! That’s a lot of ebb and flows already for someone drafted less than a year ago, so let’s get down to brass tacks. Drake has excellent speed and excellent raw power, but whether he will ever hit is very much a question. The Braves took that leap of faith to start him in Single-A, so there’s some expectation that he has enough polish to handle the level – he just hasn’t shown it yet. He started the year by striking out in over half his plate appearances (in his first 11 games) with no extra base hits and then got hurt. If you’re looking to buy into Drake at release he’s absolutely a name to consider, just expect him to take his lumps then ride the little good times – that’s likely how it’s going to go until he matures as a hitter. He already has the built in (small) floor being a hometown kid, and he certainly has a high ceiling. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Diego Benitez, 19, SS
Signed for a sizable $2.5 MM in January 2022, the Venezuelan was touted for his raw hit/power potential at a premium position. It hasn’t turned out well so far, though it hasn’t been all struggle either. He just hasn’t shown any of that power, and there’s some real question about his ability to stick at SS. That latter point is not important for some prospects, but for Benitez it is, since he’s not showing any tools that project as above average at present – if he moves to 2B or 3B, there’s just no path to the majors. The normal teenage swing-and miss caveats apply, but the biggest problem at present isn’t making contact or having little impact, it’s that he hits too many balls on the ground, and doesn’t have the speed for that profile. His .336 BABIP last year really speaks to how well struck those low launch angle balls are. It’s a positive sign, but one that dictates a swing change will be needed to access that raw power he was touted for. What will that look like should he access it? We don’t know, so it’s tough to project him to have that power. But it’s there. If he has success at Single-A perhaps he makes an attempt at that change, but it makes sense to continue to prioritize making contact and maturing as a hitter for now. Because he has a fairly narrow path visible to the majors at present, I can see just moderate hobby interest in Benitez – but Atlanta’s market is ravenous for young talent. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5
Douglas Glod, 19, OF
Like Benitez, Glod signed for seven figures out of Venezuela in 2022. At 5’9” and posting a solid .174 ISO in 2023, it’s fair to call him a mighty might. At least, that’s the goal. He’s already fairly mature physically, though there’s a little room for growth in his upper half. The XBH numbers are nice, but the contact numbers are not. It’s not hyper aggression – he makes good decisions and just misses a lot. He did post a very nice .386 OBP in the Complex last year. That on-base ability is something he can eventually use to ameliorate contact issues, but that issue simply needs to improve in a general sense first. The Braves see that too, as he appears poised to repeat the Complex to start 2024. As I mentioned, Glod’s short, stocky frame is filling out already and limiting both his speed and defense, so those do not figure to be contributing assets to his ascension. I think there will definitely be interest in Glod because he has that power and a strong card market, but there’s a ton of risk. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
*Max Wagner, 22, 3B
2023 Bowman writeup:
Taken with the 66th overall pick in the 2022 Draft, Wagner was an emergent talent at Clemson, hitting 27 HR, good for third in all of NCAA D1. Anyone with a rising profile like this is certainly going to catch the eye of the hobby, but let me try to give a reality check. Power is certainly part of his game, but his body is fully developed and it’s not likely to increase to be more than the above average tool that it is now. He’s also not dynamic with his power - it’s mostly to his pull side, but that’s OK because he’s a fairly complete hitter. He’s patient, gets on base, and quality of contact is not an issue. It’s really just a small qualm that he’s rough around the edges on breaking pitches, as that’s a skill that can be gleaned from experience, and he totaled less than 300 collegiate ABs. He’s just an average defender at 3B, but his arm is a plus asset that should keep him there. He’s essentially in the same mold as many of the other Orioles infield prospects, and they all have been fairly good for the hobby. Expect the same from Wagner. Tier: 2 Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
2024 Bowman update:
Looking back on his first full professional season, Wagner’s underlying power data looked promising and justified the above average tool evaluation. The hit tool was a bit more questionable - he had a fantastic 15% walk rate and an acceptable 25% strikeout rate in 80 games at High-A before getting a late season call-up to Double-A, where the numbers were a bit less palatable. The main concern for me was the below-average contact data, both in the zone and outside of the zone. In High-A, the zone contact rate was 75% and the outside zone contact rate was 58%, leading to a .234 average. Wagner did steal 26 bags in High-A, so overall there is still a power speed ceiling to dream on, but it may come at the expense of a sub-.240 batting average. At this point, the optimistic Tier 2 ranking we had with 2023 Bowman should be knocked down to a Tier 3 ranking. Final note - Wagner hasn’t played any 2024 games with no reason given. He had off-season surgery to remove a broken hamate bone, so the Orioles may be delaying his start as he works his way back from that.
Tier None
Aneudis Mordán, 19, C/1B
After struggling in his first pro season in the DSL in 2021, Mordán repeated the DSL in 2022 with an even worse performance. He was completely off of prospect radars entering 2023, but put up an interesting run of games at the Complex that raised some eyebrows. He returned to the plus walk rate we saw in 2021 and was able to significantly cut the strikeout rate down to 21% while hitting 7 home runs in 38 games. Mordán started 2024 at Single-A (he had 3 games to finish out the year there in 2023) and in a small sample as of writing, the walk rates are approaching an impressively unsustainable 20%. However, the strikeout rate is also back, closing in on 30%.
Mordán’s swing is an uppercut looking to put the ball in the air and when he connects to the pull side, it looks great. There is plus raw power and he makes enough zone contact that it should translate relatively well into games. At this point, it really is the strikeout rate - he tends to get deep into counts as he fouls off a lot of pitches as he’s looking to pull most everything, and then one swing and miss gets him sent back to the bench.
Mordán is a classic, thicker catcher build that won’t produce many, if any, stolen bases. He’s gotten a token few every season but it’s not part of his game. Behind the plate he’s a work in progress. Framing looks good, but he’s got some inconsistency with his blocking and arm skills. The ability is there for him to stick behind the plate and that’s the ticket to becoming a major leaguer. He plays first base a fair amount but that’s more because the O’s are stacked at the catcher position at every level. Long term the bat probably isn’t good enough to clear the offensive bar of a non-catcher primary position. Still young, Mordán is firmly a watch list guy that is on the borderline of Tier 3 and Tier None. Because of the catcher tag and the lack of prospect pedigree, he gets pushed down into Tier None for now. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
Tavian Josenberger, 22, OF
The Orioles 3rd Round pick from Arkansas, Josenberger offers plus raw speed that plays up further on the base-paths and in the field because he’s so quick. He’s already stolen 18 bases through 34 games as a pro, including 11 through 12 games this year at High-A. He’s a patient hitter who’s excellent at both taking his walks and putting bat-to-ball, but needs to add more strength – it’s too often for a low quality of contact. If that happens there is a projection for a little power, but it’d just be a 10-12 HR ceiling. His defensive home is a bit up in the air, but that’s a positive in his case – he can play at all three OF positions as well as 2B – he may be a future util. I think there should only be a little bit of interest here because he does need to mature physically to show us hobby relevance and he’s already 22, but there’s some apparent carrying tools already present, which is nice. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Rolphy Cruz, 21, 2B
I don’t know about Topps’ inclusion of this one. He’s one of the few guys on this checklist I see that doesn’t have a single tool that projects as fringe-average. So – cheap Orioles fans get their guy, at least. After a few years of pretty rough performance in the DSL and Complex, Cruz did show that he had mastered the Complex last year, smacking 8 XBH in 8 games. But then he went to Single-A and put up a wRC+ of 18 (not a typo) in 23 games. That’s bad. With a smaller frame and without significant speed, I think his ability to develop an approach is the most important thing. But at 21, having this much history of struggle, and still straddling the line between Single-A and Complex, time is very much against him. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Kyle Teel, 22, C
The best college catcher in the 2023 MLB Draft was taken by the Red Sox at 14th overall after starting from Day 1 of his Freshman year at the University of Virginia through the end of his Junior season leading into the draft. The Red Sox pushed him through three levels after the draft, starting at the Complex, skipping Single-A altogether, and ending at Double-A, where he started out in 2024.
Teel isn’t your typical looking catcher - he’s lithe and athletic and looks like he could play anywhere up the middle. That athleticism does allow him to excel behind the dish with his pop times and the arm follows suit, regularly keeping the running game in check. On the offensive side, Teel’s primary asset is the hit tool. It has the potential to be a plus bat with his knowledge of the zone and ability to put the ball in play with high regularity. At present, it’s above average, but playing future home games in Fenway should allow that to play up, and give his average power a nice boost, putting 20 home runs in reach. Even with his athleticism, Teel rarely is running on the base-paths, and as a catcher, it’s probably just not worth the added injury risk exposure by doing so.
Teel has a lot of hype. A highly collectable team. A first round draft choice. Moving through the minors quickly. An organizational depth chart full of second catchers or worse (don’t @ me Connor Wong truthers, dude is simply riding a hot streak). A hit tool that will play at any level, especially from the catcher position. An almost no doubt starting catcher on a first division team. It’s a lot of context to provide Teel’s cards a very strong tailwind as I use that to push him into Tier 2. But for me, this is also a buyer beware situation. There isn’t enough power with his contact-first approach and the catcher penalty is hard to ignore. I’d be selling into that hype at every opportunity, even if I really like Teel from a real baseball perspective. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 7
Yoeilin Cespedes, 18, SS
There’s been nothing but positive reviews on Cespedes across the board since signing for $1.5 MM in January of 2023. Take DSL numbers with a grain of salt but when they show a sub-12 K% with 25 XBH in 46 games, it’s still notable. He was a Top 10 performer in all the DSL, period. He also showed that while he may lack a plus arm and speed, he’s an extremely reliable defender. There will certainly be more development at SS for now, but those offensive skills, from what he was touted for to what he showed, will play anywhere. I’d love to throw a little cold water on the generation of hype here, but unless you want definite 25 HR power, I can’t help you. Cespedes appears to have the goods, and more of a floor than almost any other DSL player. Anything more concrete than saying that is a bit much, but that’s never been an issue for the treatment of a player in the hobby. Especially in this Boston market, there’s not much ceiling to where he could end up in the realm of this product. It’s all projection-based because he’s not quite a Top 10 name in the product, but he may get there before the end of the season. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7-9
Tier 3
Allan Castro, 20, OF
Castro smacked 42 XBH last year across both A levels with equal success at both, and posted a sub 20 K%. He has a great feel for the barrel – he’s a line drive savant. There’s enough strength projection in his frame to have success with a little more loft that would definitely lead to more power, or he can keep his swing as is and probably still get to 15-20 HR at maturity. That game power isn’t there yet, so he’s a bit sneaky for this product. He ticks a lot of boxes collectors like – his hit tool projects as above average, at 20 in High-A he was young for the level, and he has a good body for impact. He’s likely a fit for the athletic-RF mold, but his speed isn’t a perfect translation to the bases. I want to see a little more success at higher levels before I say he definitely has projection as a big-league regular — not something I say lightly about prospects in High-A — but 2023 was a bit of a breakout and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do even more this year. I think Castro should be pretty affordable at release, but he definitely has at least a middling ceiling. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Johanfran Garcia, 19, C
Catcher tax be damned, hyper aggression be damned, I love what Garcia is doing. He understands that hitting the ball on the ground is his enemy and has shown some significant acumen in finding thump in his uppercut hacks. It’s not just to the pull side either – it’s a true all fields approach that’s really pretty unique. He’s shown himself to be a serviceable defensive catcher already too – since coming stateside the 19 YO has thrown out ~28% of runners. Of course, with any catcher, growth is expected to be slower than other positions. He’s also quite stocky in build, so there’s not really other defensive options. Speed, as I alluded to in saying ground balls are his enemy – is not a part of his game. His power ceiling is where he’ll glean hobby love and if everything clicks it’s 20-25 HR. He might just end up with a ceiling of something like a mini-Salvador Perez, which Red Sox fans would love. He’s a little too far away and a little too certain of a catcher right now to bump him to Tier 3, but I like him. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Antonio Anderson, 18, SS
A switch-hitting Georgia prep (HS teammate of fellow draftee and 2024 Bowman product-mate Isaiah Drake) taken in the third round in 2023 and signed for an overslot $1.5 MM, Anderson has a frame for a strong power projection. He’s not just power by any means – in fact right now his swing is geared for contact, and the power is just coming naturally. This isn’t a reflection on what he’s done in the minors thus far. What of the poor results in the small sample thus far? I’m not overly concerned. His swing looks fine, though there’s some moving parts that could definitely be simplified. Defensively he’s likely to move off of SS and has already seen some time at 3B, but we’re buying the bat with Anderson. He’s athletic, but his speed does not seem like it will remain a factor with maturity. The best case scenario is that Anderson develops into a 20+ HR-hitting 3B, and the sliding scale of how good that is for the hobby depends on how much contact he’s able to make. Right now the perception is a little bit of a down arrow, but he is just 18 with an aggressive placement at Single-A until June and playing in that strong Boston market. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Alfonsin Rosario, 19, OF
Though he’s built like a linebacker at a broad shouldered, physically mature 6`6”, and showing the power, speed, and arm you’d expect of a player of that ilk, his hit tool is a quite a bit behind. The 2023 6th Round pick is still intriguing for the hobby, and his speed and arm make him very much viable in CF. But that hit tool is such a laggard that it makes his power mostly just raw right now. Those broad shoulders bring a bit of stiffness to his swing and he tends to hit the ball more on the ground than you’d like for a player with his bat speed. There’s plenty of time to tweak those things though. Development is all in the skill side – the physical package is already there. I would think that even though he’ll start in the Complex, a move to Single-A should happen later in the year if he clears the benchmarks of making good quality of contact with a sub-30 K%. Being in the Cubs’ strong collectors’ market, there should be quite robust interest in Rosario. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Josh Rivera, 23, SS
After injuries and under performance sabotaged Rivera from his final year of prep baseball at IMG through his first three years of college ball at the University of Florida, he broke out in a big way in his last year on Campus. That put him firmly back on draft radars and hovering in that top 100 prospects pre-draft, ultimately being selected by the Cubs in round 3. Still, as a Senior sign, the Cubs were able to get a small discount with the selection.
Even with the 2023 college breakout, there isn’t a ton to get excited about when it comes to his big league prospects. He’s a bucket of average tools that probably provides the most value as an infield utility type. He has the defensive skills to stick at shortstop as well as push out to either second or third. The hit and power are both average with most of his impact coming from pulling pitches right down the line. That’s a fine line to tread, and often, outside of perhaps Isaac Paredes, one that doesn’t produce consistent success.
After a quick dip in the Complex, Rivera finished out the year in High-A. It wasn’t a particularly good or bad result - basically league average results. That led to a start in Double-A in 2024 and it has not gone well at all as of writing. It will likely even out, but I don’t see a reason to buy in anytime soon. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Chicago White Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
George Wolkow, 18, OF
Having just turned 18 in January, Wolkow was one of the youngest players in the 2023 Draft, where he was taken in the 7th Round and signed for a well overslot $1 MM. He stands in at 6’7”, so as you might imagine, his hit tool is quite rough around the edges. But the same could be said about any prep with significant physical projection remaining, so there’s room for that to develop into an average asset. The rest of his tools are more squarely average or better, and his power definitely has plus projection. Wolkow has an understanding of how to use his long levers with ease already – a great sign that he will get to game power sooner rather than later. His arm has projection to be at least above average, and likewise, his expected average speed at maturity will let him stay at a corner OF. I think considering his age and expected longer development path, the Complex is a good home for him in 2024. But if that power starts showing quickly and with a sub-30 K%, he could get a quick promotion to Single-A. There’s a lot to dream on with Wolkow and it’s weighted in power, so he’s certain to be highly desirable for the hobby. But they don’t come much riskier. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 8
Abraham Nunez, 18, OF
Man, I love what Nunez did in the DSL. Unlike some guys I say that about, Nunez has a big, projectable body to go with it. The exact numbers aren’t important but Nunez posted a low K% with a significantly higher BB%. He also put the ball in the air often with good quality – these two things combined portend a hit tool that’s likely to be at least above average with maturity. When his body becomes a bit more physical, there should be an average of better natural power as well. Continuing with the accolades, Nunez should retain his speed as he matures and be a positive force in CF, though I’m less sure about truly being a threat on the bases. This is my favorite DSL prospect in this set from a value perspective – as a 700k signer in 2023 he was significant, but I think he’s already shown projection that will make that number seem like a steal. It’s fair to not trust the White Sox to develop him properly, but I think he’s 100% worth the risk. Don’t get tripped up by his being a base-only subject in this release. He’s one to target. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9
Tier None
Jacob Burke, 23, OF
The definition of a 4th/5th outfielder type, Burke’s main value comes with outstanding center field defense. He makes highlight reel, diving catches in the gaps on a regular basis.
The hit tool is average with a swing more geared towards putting the ball in play rather than over the fence. He has some holes in his plate approach at the moment that will be taken advantage of as he moves up the levels. The in-game power, as implied above, is below average and probably won’t ever be more than average. While he can run, as proven by his play in center field, he hasn’t quite figured out how to steal bases at a reliable level.
Burke’s peak outcome is in the Kevin Pillar/Harrison Bader profile. The most likely outcome is that 4th/5th outfielder type, as mentioned above, and that’s Tier None until we see significant developments. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Ronny Hernandez, 19, C
Defense is an important part of being a catcher, so I begin by saying “yeesh, that defense is rough”. Moved to Single-A as a 19 year old to begin this year, in just his first nine games Hernandez has given up 29 SB and only caught two, which is a continuing trend (23% CS last year). At least he’s cut down on the passed ball numbers thus far? Anyhow, we’re most interested in his bat, which is pretty nice. He’s a patient hitter who’s looking to elevate the ball, an approach that worked to the tune of a .338/.430/.493 slash at the Complex last year. I think he has potential to grow into being a master of the strike zone – he’s tending quite positively with his hit tool at least. This approach should yield a decent amount of HR eventually, though if we’re talking about a future 1B it would more likely be his hit tool continuing to trend positively that carries him. Henandez’s offensive skills are advancing much quicker than he defense, but organizations aren’t quick to move players off of catcher either. It’s a catch-22 that might leave him dominating the low minors for a few years yet. That could be really a positive thing for the hobby because performance yields value, but the truth is he does not have a path to the majors with his current position/skill projection. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5
Ryan Burrowes, 19, SS
Though he was almost 18 when he signed for a meager 75k out of Panama in April 2022, Burrowes is being treated like a 2022 J15. He performed with maturity in the DSL that year as you might expect, but I think his true colors were revealed last year in the Complex. There’s a lot of swing-and-miss in Burrowes' game, though he does take healthy hacks that when he does connect, result in good quality of contact. He’s also very aggressive, and although some of that can just be chalked up to being as a hitter he needs to earn the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he’s doing up there. He does have very nice speed and the tools to remain at SS, so that’ll at least buy him some time to see if his bat can come around. To me the most important benchmark for Burrowes is developing a plate approach – it’ll help his speed play better, and it’ll probably help his swing-and-miss issues. He was delayed to start his 2024 due to a broken hand but should be on track at Single-A shortly. Burrowes has quite the projectable body – that shouldn't get lost in all this rawness. One can envision him growing into power once he settles into who he’s going to be as a hitter. It’s just a long way away and very far from a sure thing. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
Rikuu Nishida, 22, OF
Man, I with Nishida was more toolsy. He's a really fun personality to watch, but I don’t know if he’ll ever make it to the majors. Eventually landing at Oregon a few years after graduating High School in Japan, Nishida signed after being taken in the 11th Round. At 5’6”, 150 lbs he’s very small – lithe even – and has a very contact-oriented swing. He only struck out 26 times in 297 PA’s in his final collegiate year. This year in Single-A it hasn’t been quite as good so far, but he’s maintained a patient approach and small-ball ability that lets him use his other tool – speed. It’s not a plus asset but he is aggressive on the base-paths, letting him get the most out of what he’s got. Power is not a significant part of his game – even at Oregon he only ran a 28 XBH%. Nishida is also limited defensively to LF and 2B. I have to point out that he’ll already be 23 in late May as well. There’s not a lot of real-life tools to hang his hat on to force his way up the ladder, but if you can, get out to a game in Kannapolis to see if you like how he plays the game. He’s fun! Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Carlos Sanchez, 3B/SS, 19
Part of the Reds 2022 International Free Agent signing class, Sanchez put up some promising statlines in the DSL and at the Complex before getting a brief introduction to Single-A at the end of 2023. He started back at the same level to begin 2024 and so far has not made much of an impact with the small sample to end 2023 and to begin 2024.
Sanchez looks the part of a well put together athlete in the batter’s box, but I’ve yet to see a ton of impact at bats for the 19 year-old. He shows a fair bit of patience, leading to walks, but also putting him in bad counts more often than I liked to see. It led to a lot of ground ball contact, so while his contact rates look good, I don’t trust the quality of contact. At least not yet.
On the defensive side, the arm was good enough to make the throws from the left side of the diamond. However, he more than likely works outfield into his future to increase his likelihood of making an MLB roster as a utility player that can steal some bases, put the ball in play, and take some walks. If he can unlock some power that his physical presence suggests, then he quickly graduates to a potential everyday role and more of a Tier 3 player. Until we see a power surge, there is very little to get excited about with no standout tools in his profile. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Robert Calaz, 18, OF
You couldn’t ask for more from your top IFA signing. The 2023 signee dominated the DSL, slashing .325/.423/.561 with 21 XBH in 43 games. Grain of salt, DSL, yadda yadda. But Calaz’s power is very, very real. He has a double plus projection, which places him at the very top in the 2023 J15’s. His speed is also a potential plus asset, but applying it in-games as a baseball skill is a work in progress. Or, his body could develop in an adverse fashion to his speed and affect his dimensionality as a ballplayer. It really does impact the height of his ceiling, but that’s something to put a bit in for a few years down the road. As he moves to the Complex this year I would expect a higher K% than the 23 he put up in the DSL, but if he’s consistently impacting the ball nobody’s going to care. Sub-30% and we’re fine for 2024. He’s so physically advanced that I expect him to have success in the low minors for the next few years, but how his body matures will settle the longer term. Calaz won’t be a quick riser but as long as things are generally positive, I think he’ll be worth the wait. Colorado isn’t a strong collectors’ market, but as his perceived HR ceiling is amplified by it (kinda silly for a guy who’s at least 4 years away) we’re still looking at a Top 10-ish name in this product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8-10
Tier 3
Kelvin Hidalgo, 19, 3B
You’re going to read a negative outlook on fellow DSL-repeater Erick Bautista below, but Hidalgo is not that. In fact, I don’t really know why the Rockies had him repeating – as a 500k signer in the 2022 J15 period and posting a positive wRC+ that year in the DSL, I would've thought him a lock to get stateside to get more coaches’ eyes on him at least. But no, he was in the DSL again and it was as one would hope – across-the-board improvement including an impressive 12 HR, though he still has his warts. He’s struggled defensively at SS, so he’s being tentatively moved to 3B where he’s been quite rough as well – I think we can excuse that as he learns the position for now though. The good thing with Hidalgo is that he has a big enough toolbox that for the hobby, we can ignore those defensive concerns. He’s a very good runner and should retain enough speed as he matures to remain a threat on the bases. He showed good zone awareness in both seasons, and in his second season really transformed that into positive statistical results. He obviously has power too, and projects to have more with maturity. He’s a great name to dream on for the hobby, but it’s fair to pump the breaks a hair as he looks to move up a level for the first time in his career this year. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9
Tier None
Erick Bautista, 19, OF
Ignore the nice power numbers for a second. When I see a player repeating the DSL for an understandable reason as Bautista did, I want to see a tangible improvement in said area. That did not happen with him. In fact, his seasons were nearly identical, showing massive swing-and-miss issues between finding the barrel for a combined 18 HR in his two seasons. He will surely be moved to the Complex this year, where we’ll get to see if his physicality will continue to let him provide a positive offensive value, or if all catches up to him and he goes into adjustment mode in earnest. Bautista has been moved mostly to the OF corners, and speed is not a forte of his already. There’s a ton of pressure on Bautista’s bat, and it’s currently very raw. There’s an outside shot he makes it as a significant power threat, but trending neutral from a DSL repeat is a definite negative unto itself, and that’s the latest taste in our mouth. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Carson Rucker, 19, 3B/SS
Taken in the fourth round of the 2023 MLB Draft out of the Tennessee prep ranks, Carson is the younger brother of Jake Rucker, who was selected by the Twins in the 7th round of the 2021 MLB Draft.
Rucker got a small 9 game taste at the Florida Complex level post draft, so there wasn’t a ton of data or video to sink our teeth into. He did show patience at the plate in the game I watched and had a 15% walk rate, but there wasn’t a ton of positive contact. Despite the numbers showing either pull side or opposite side with very little being hit back up the middle, the one fly ball he hit deep (but not out) was into the left-center gap. If he pulled that rather than gapped it, it would have gone out. Reports tab his power more towards the right-center gap, and I don’t doubt it given his swing at the moment.
Rucker played most of his games at shortstop, but the future home is almost assuredly third base, which is where I saw him, and he looked fine there. His tools are all pretty much in that average to above average area, with the power potential being what could lead to an MLB future. The hit tool needs to develop enough that he can get to his future plus raw power, otherwise there isn’t enough value to get him to the bigs. He’s on that Tier 3 and Tier None borderline - a prep bat that was selected in the first five rounds of the draft that was ticketed for a big SEC program with a potential above average to plus power tool is enough for the hobby to have at least some level of excitement for. I want to see a lot more tape and data before I jump on board, but there’s enough here to push him into Tier 3 and see what develops. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Enrique Jimenez, 18, C
A seven figure signing of the Tigers in the 2023 International Free Agent class, Jimenez looks like yet another potential future MLB catcher coming out of Venezuela. Do they have catcher trees out there, because they sure seem to be growing them.
Jimenez is a shorter stature player that has the defensive chops to stick behind the plate and a hit-first approach at the plate. He spent all of 2023 in the DSL and exhibited that strong hit tool and plate approach with a double digit walk rate and a sub-20% strikeout rate. He only hit one home run, going to show that the reported average power is the reality. At just 5’9”, it likely stays that way.
As a DSL prospect with a large signing bonus, Jimenez deserves to be in Tier 3. As a catcher that won’t produce much power, I’d treat him more like a Tier None player from a hobby perspective. But we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Tier None
None
Houston Astros
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Luis Baez, 20, OF
Physical imposition. That’s the first thing that comes to mind when one looks at Baez, who stands in at a broad shouldered 6`1”. He toyed with Complex League pitchers last year, hitting 7 HR in 17 games with a 172 wRC+ before his promotion to Single-A. There he showed that his pitch recognition skills were still a bit raw and his K% ballooned to 27, but he still managed 18 XBH in 41 games there without showing hyper-aggression. Now 20 and placed at High-A, he’s begun the year by continuing to show excellent impact – with these early returns it’s now even safer to say his power truly will be a plus asset sooner rather than later. His hit, as well, has maintained so far at High-A and could end up average or better. He has a simple swing that generates ideal launch angle, and it fits who he is offensively perfectly. He just needs organic growth to make it – it’s easy to see projection as an everyday regular. As he’s already close to maxed out physically and has lost speed with that maturity, Baez is a strictly a strong-armed corner OF, but if he slows down too much 1B is also an option. That won’t matter for the hobby. We see the power, we love the power, the power is really all we care about. If he continues at his current pace Baez could be an annual 30 HR terror in the majors. What goes with that is in question, but he’s a Top 10 name in this product by all measures. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8
Brice Matthews, 22, SS
The Astros took the athletic power/speed threat at the end of the 1st round in the 2023 MLB Draft, one of the better landing spots for Matthews. The main concern with Matthews is the in-zone swing and miss and his inconsistent throwing arm from shortstop. A former big time prep QB out of Texas, he may just never have that natural instinct for throwing the round ball instead of the oblong one.
The EV data is really impressive with the 90th percentile measurement in the range of some of the best MLB power hitters. It’s easy to see it when he gets a hold of one - they’re almost always no-doubters, especially on the inner half of the plate when he can pull it over the left field fence. I’ve also seen him take it the other way to the right-center gap, putting it over the fence with impressive ease. On the base-paths he’s also got the wheels - in just 33 Single-A games last year, he stole 16 bases in 19 attempts. As said above, it all comes down to the hit tool. Matthews has great pitch recognition as well as a strong understanding of the zone. He’s had high teen walk rates at each of his minor league stops so far. However, there is a bit of passivity that comes with that approach, and coupling that with some in-zone swing and miss, you get high-20% K rates. That also leads to scenarios where he’s swinging at pitcher’s pitches rather than hitter’s pitches generating less than ideal hard contact, ground balls, and low batting averages. While he has all the athletic tools to succeed at shortstop, the likelihood that he gets pushed off of it to either second base or center-field where the lack of an accurate arm is less of an issue, is very high. This does ding his real-baseball value somewhat, and that can trickle down to Hobby value.
The Astros, as an analytically driven org and one I trust to help hitters shore up their weaknesses, give me hope that Matthews does take the next step. With his 1st Round pedigree and the 20/20+ profile, it gives me enough confidence to slide Matthews into the bottom of my Tier 2. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Esmil Valencia, 18, OF
Valencia received 900k in January 2023, third-most among Astros international signers for the period. He then went out and out-performed the top two in the DSL. While he’s not the biggest prospect in stature, he does have a frame that could have some power with maturity, which is a nice secondary tool. His primary tool is his hit. That’s the one that will carry him as far as he’ll go, and it’s so far so good. His batted ball results were far from perfect but he did have a sub-15 K% and a nice batted ball profile with some solid quality of contact. A 31 XBH% is a nice number to build on for a player who’s not near physical maturity. He did play CF in the DSL and he could stay there for a bit, but he’s not a burner and is more likely to end up in a corner. I think Valencia is definitely deserving of keeping an eye on – if his hit tool stays on its current pace we could see his power numbers tick up naturally as a result, which would make him very much worthwhile for the hobby. He’s in the Complex this year where we should look to see a little more maturity, but not necessarily that power yet. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7
Anthony Huezo, 18, OF
A 2023 California prep signed away from UC-Irvine for a 12th Round 397k bonus, Huezo wasn’t highly regarded as a Draft prospect, but he did play the showcase circuit. The Astros saw the projectable 6’2” frame and took a shot on his hit-centric profile. The best part of Huezo is his raw ability to find the barrel – it’s not a testament of how skilled he is at it in-game at this time, but in terms of knowing how to do it, it’s quite nice. His swing is mechanically sound and right now generates a lot of low-launch angle, but it seems like more loft will come with strength. That physical maturation should help us figure out who Huezo will be – I think he’ll end up being a good commander of the zone, but how much power comes with that? He’s a great development project for a team who’s really good at it. His speed is at least above average with more likely coming with maturity, and his OF defense is a work in progress and also dependent on that maturity. Of several post-8th Rounders in this set I like Huezo the best. But he’s a long way off, and fair to just sit & wait to see how he does in the next few years before making a full hobby evaluation. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
German Ramirez, 17, SS
Ramirez signed for $1.2 MM in the January 2023 signing period, second most for the Astros behind Camilo Diaz. It’s interesting that they play the same position and will compete for time at the Complex this year. Ramirez is less of a natural SS, so I assume he slides over to primarily 3B. Still, Ramirez is a good athlete so at this juncture we’re not concerned about exactly where he plays. He has good bat speed and performed decently in the DSL and posted a sub-20 K%. For now it doesn’t matter that there’s a lot of moving parts in his swing right now – everything will change as his body matures. The exact science of where his speed ends up also depends on that, but he did not show a proclivity to run last year. In short Ramirez is still a mystery box whose tools are not particularly loud, but hasn’t experienced any struggle yet either. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4-6
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Ramon Ramirez, 18, C
Even though Ramirez was signed out of the Dominican Republic, he is Venezuelan born and I’ve heard they grow catchers on trees there. Ramirez was signed to the bargain basement price of $57K to little fanfare. Yes, you read that right. Just five figures for a catcher that may end up being the long term primary backstop in Kansas City with potential for plus hit, plus power and a plus arm behind the dish.
Prospects Live may have been the first site to push Ramirez into the Royals top overall prospect slot, but others have definitely followed suit leading to a bit of under the radar buzz. In his 2023 DSL sample of 41 games, he hit .344 with 8 home runs, a 14% walk rate, and an outstanding 12% K rate. Data backs up the power as well with triple digit 90th percentile exit velocity numbers. The little video out there shows his ability to adjust, pulling the ball for power as well as shooting it out to the opposite field on balls in the outer half of the zone. Sadly DSL video streams can skip at the worst time, as he smashed a no-doubter and it skipped literally mid-swing.
The main concern for the Hobby is that Ramirez is a catcher. If not for that, I would imagine that he would be in the conversation for a top 15 ranking in this product. Even so, his offensive profile pushes him up to the bottom of my Tier 2 rankings as I expect the buzz to get louder and louder with Ramirez. The risk, as with all DSL players, is extremely high, and even more with catchers, but depending on the price point, this is a risk I would consider taking. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9
Tier 3
Tony Ruiz, 18, OF
A top 30 International Free Agent that was originally linked to the Red Sox, Ruiz ended up signing with the Royals as their biggest ticket item for roughly $1.2M in the 2023 signing period. Ruiz is a long, lanky outfielder with a very projectable, athletic frame and potential for plus power. The minimal video out there is impressive when he does get a hold of one. The fly in the ointment is the hit tool. His first season in the DSL in 2023 resulted in a 36% strikeout rate. That likely gets even worse when he makes his stateside debut. He only stole one base in 38 DSL games and the reports have him tabbed for just average speed. Even with a middling amount of International prospect pedigree, Ruiz didn't appear on any Royals Top 30 lists. And that’s not a surprise given the unsightly strikeout numbers. This is a power-hitting lottery ticket that has extremely long odds of hitting and one I would avoid for the Hobby until we see a larger sample with hopefully a sub-30% strikeout rate. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
Tier None
Erick Torres, 19, OF
Signed by the Royals for $500K during the 2022 International Free Agency period, Torres is a hit+speed outfielder. A bit on the smaller side at 5'10”, Torres is a gap hitter who doesn’t project to add much if any future pop. With his speed, there shouldn’t be any issue with Torres being able to stick in center field, giving him a better path to a future MLB role. That role is likely a second division regular or backup outfielder. If the hit tool continues to hold as he moves up the levels with double digit walk rates and sub-20% K rates, then there is definitely a chance at a table-setter type of hitter. He regularly puts the bat to the ball with natural contact ability, so I wouldn’t bet against the hit tool holding strong against advanced pitching. I just don’t know if there will be a ton of impact, which is likely why he’s completely off of prospect lists outside of perhaps data driven ones that favor hit tools heavily.
Lacking much prospect pedigree and future power growth will cap Torres’ Hobby Ceiling. The hit and speed skills provide a bit of a floor that he does find his way to an MLB role, slightly lessening his Hobby Risk. I’m not really interested from a Hobby perspective until he can show some impact with the bat - the Hobby punishes guys who hit .280 - .300 and steal 20 - 30 bases but don’t hit more than a handful of home runs, and that’s likely what Torres’ peak outcome would end up as. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Jared Dickey, 22, OF
On the fringes of the top 100 players heading into the 2023 MLB Draft, Dickey slipped all the way to the 11th round for Kansas City. However, he did end up getting top 5 round type of money, so there is some small pedigree boost above a what you would expect from the former University of Tennessee Volunteer.
Dickey’s got an above average hit tool with a couple different timing triggers in his mechanics. It’s less pronounced than it was in college, but it does give me some slight concern that his pre-swing approach will be a work in progress. The approach and contact are working at the moment, so I’ll give him credit for that. There’s good raw power in the bat, but it’s not something that shows up in game often. He’s not a threat on the base paths although he’ll chip in a few from time to time. He spent time behind the dish in college but was primarily an outfielder. He didn’t look like the most fluid fielder out there in the games I watched.
There’s not enough prospect pedigree and not enough power for me to be comfortable treating Dickey like a Tier 3 hitter at the moment. He’s more a strong side platoon/org depth left-fielder for now. If he starts tapping into his pull-side juice on a regular basis, then he’s going to go from the fringes of the Royals Top 30 to potentially in Top 10 consideration in a system lacking a lot of impact bats. Until then, I’m not interested from a Hobby perspective. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Anthony Scull, 20, OF
Hey look, an Angels prospect that’s definitely interesting for the hobby! A 235k signer in January 2021, Scull is the son of a Cuban baseball three-time Olympic Gold medalist – so the bloodlines are strong. He only put together 76 AB’s in his first two years due to injury, but he made up for that in what he did at the Complex in 2023. His approach is very aggressive, but with a K% near 20 there was no need to tone it down with as much success as he was having, slashing .300/.377/.453. This year at Single-A he’s done almost exactly the same thing in the early going – so it’s possible that a rude awakening where he needs to make significant adjustments to his approach just isn’t coming. There is some nice loft in Scull’s swing and average power lets it play well. His above average speed also plays well in all facets. The track record is short but the returns are pretty darn positive. To me, at present his lack of a good-enough hit tool probably leaves him short of a being MLB regular, but at age 20 there’s a lot of time to turn that around, and the tools are otherwise very strong. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Jorge Marcheco, 21, P
Topps has done a much better job of getting us pitchers when we’ll actually care about them lately, and Marcheco is no exception. He built up to 119 innings in 2023 across both A levels, and the underlying numbers say there’s a nice foundation to being a back-end starter that could rise quickly. In a bubble none of his pitches are average options, but they play up for two reasons – considerable deception in his delivery and impeccable command. He probably needs to add a fourth pitch to his repertoire to continue to keep hitters honest as he moves up levels, but that’s my only real question. He just needs to continue on as he has been to get to Anaheim by 2026. Hobby-wise, he’s squarely in Tier None because there’s no mid-rotation upside and he just doesn’t have that high-K ceiling we like. If you like pitchers with some sort of floor though, Marcheco is your guy. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 3
Barrett Kent, 19, P
Just as I commend Topps for choosing the right under-the-radar pitchers at times when we actually care about them for the hobby, I now have to take that away with Kent’s inclusion. Drafted in the 8th Round and signed for an overslot 997k, the Texas prep should carry that 4th round pedigree the bonus dictates. So why did he fall? Well, it’s a combination of inconsistent performance in high school and a strong commitment to Arkansas. None of that matters now, but looking forward, his organization does. The Angels have drafted and signed 39 pitchers since the 2021 Draft, and even though some were very mature and have reached the majors, only Caden Dana and Chase Silseth (generously) have been value-positive to date. The Angels simply promote, promote, promote with their pitchers, with what seems to be little thought to actually having a development program. I bring this up with Kent because he needs development – his was a fading name around draft time because he was less effective than he was previously. But his raw skills are, in fact, there. He’s a big projectable righty with a four pitch mix, buoyed by a mid-90’s fastball with good shape. Like many preps his command has no polish at all, and at present he loses velocity in his starts quickly. With proper strength and development gains there’s a definite possibility he gets to a mid-rotation ceiling, but that’s years away in the best case. I think it’s more probable he just gets swallowed by the Angels janky development machine and emerges as a relief arm. In this system Kent was already promoted to Single-A, where he’s off to a (you guessed it) wildly inconsistent start. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5
John Wimmer, 19, SS
Wimmer was not a highly regarded prospect in the 2023 Draft, and was taken in the 13th Round and signed away from a commitment to The Citadel for 397k. The Angels saw something they liked in the SS. I don’t know if that means a lot for an organization that, as I mentioned above, hasn’t had much development success recently. Based on video I see a fairly projectable player with a simple line drive approach, with speed also being a positive part of his profile. There’s a long, long way to go for Wimmer, but he seems like he’s some nice clay for the Angels to mold if you’re a believer in the system. But let’s put it this way – if he truly had loud tools he would have had a better college commitment, and better Draft stock. I don’t think there will or should be much interest in Wimmer right now. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Felix Morrobel, 18, SS
A 2023 900k J15 signer from the Dominican Republic, Morrobel showed that he has potential to develop a plus hit tool. He struck out just 13 times in 171 plate appearances in the DSL, and selling out for contact like this makes sense with his above-average speed. I don’t know it’ll be a full translation to the complex this year, but with what looks like a carrying tool in place there’s a nice handle for the hobby to grab onto. Already mostly mature physically, he should easily be able to stay at SS at least at this stage in his development. On the flip side, with limited physical projection remaining, he only had 6 XBH last year. I don’t care how much contact you make – unless you have elite speed, a punch & judy type will not play at all in the hobby at any point in development. There simply must be some impact for us to care – I’d take a tick in XBH% up to 25, just as a measure of improvement. Then sure, I’d take him as a cheap flier. But right now, I’m not interested. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4
Capri Ortiz, 19, SS
A low six figure signee in January 2021, Ortiz is a top-of-the-scale speed guy who’s still working on everything else, including base running efficiency. There’s enough intrigue in his glove paired with that speed that he’s being given a full chance to stick at SS in Single-A this year. He has a lanky build and probably will stay wiry with maturity - while that bodes well for his speed building into an elite asset, but the opposite holds true for his power. He has almost none right now, and his swing is geared for a low launch angle, which makes sense. The maturation of his hit tool is the key to his development. Like many teens, he has an aggressive approach with quite a bit of swing-and miss – but there is a semblance of discipline already. He just needs to capitalize more in his good counts. It’s too soon to say he has a projection to the majors because being completely vacant of power, he needs to be average in field and hit tools to go with that speed. He’s not a strong name in this product. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jaron Elkins, 19, OF
Elkins was an off-the-radar prep bat coming into the 2023 MLB Draft that the Dodgers took in the 8th round for roughly 4th/5th round money. Elkins was high school teammates with fellow 2024 Bowman prospect and 4th round selection Carson Rucker. It’s safe to assume that scouts that came to see Rucker took some extra notes on Elkins.
Elkins is a bit of a mystery from a baseball perspective as he only had one official game at the Complex level after being drafted. Elkins has a very athletic foundation as he was a successful running back, outfielder, and pitcher in high school. Able to touch mid-90’s on the mound, Elkins should have no problem playing any position in the outfield including right field with that arm strength. The high school tape and numbers show average to above average power and a swing that likely provides enough of a base to get to that power. Watching his running back tape (he has more football tape than baseball tape out there LOL), he’s got the speed to outrun defenders, so I assume he should have at least some hope for stealing bases.
Elkins was almost an unknown coming into the draft, and is still a big unknown almost ten months later. If he was taken by a much lesser proven org (Colorado, Oakland/Sacramento/Vegas, etc.), I would be much more concerned that the path forward for Elkins would be full of obstacles. The Dodgers just know what they are doing when it comes to developing prospects, on top of being a highly collectable team. Similar to a lot of the DSL prospects, we just have very little to go on with Elkins. The athletic profile and the Dodger context buy enough leeway to slot Elkins in Tier 3, but with a huge Risk grade and a dart throw at his Ceiling. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
Tier None
None
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier 1
Brock Wilken, 21, 3B
A big-time power threat for three years at Wake Forest, Wilken’s game went to the next level last year where he slugged 31 HR, tops among draft-eligible college bats. He also showed a much improved approach, which was the key to vaulting his draft stock well inside the first round. Taken 18th overall, Wilken quickly proved that his physically mature 6’4” frame was no match for the low minors and reached AA in his pro debut. His hit tool is likely just average (at best) altogether, but it’s already showing as such and the only challenges are level-to-level adjustments. Once those adjustments are made, get ready to watch that (potentially double-plus) power fly. I think there’s a very real chance that he’s a 40 HR bat in future. There is a history of swing-and-miss, and I’d expect his K% to be well into the 20’s annually. He’s also not a great defender at the keystone, but he’ll be given every chance to develop there before being moved across the diamond. It won’t matter for the hobby, as the bat plays anywhere. Currently injured with a broken face, Wilken should be back later in the summer, where I’d expect him to get to double digit HR in AA in limited time pretty easily, followed by an AFL showcase. How he performs altogether in those places will determine just when the Brewers give him a shot – but it already looks like sometime in 2025. Being what I perceive to be a quick rising super-high ceiling power bat pushes him to the fringe of a Top 5 name in this product. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 8
Cooper Pratt, 19, SS
I don’t think many will be fooled by his being drafted in the 6th Round of the 2023 Draft at this point – this was a 2nd Round talent at the time, he was paid as such, and he’s performed as such thus far. Possessing a large and very projectable frame, the Mississippi prep has long performed well against the very best of his peers. His hit tool is extremely advanced for his age by all metrics, which is a fantastic sign for a player of his size. Considering his size, that makes it so with maturity, it’s really easy to see Pratt growing into plus power – the bat speed is already there and showing in the results as XBH’s. Already assigned to Single-A this year, he was doing well there before he went down to a broken pinkie. There is above average speed for now, but as he matures it’s likely to tick down, with a probably correlating move to 3B. He does have the innate skills to be a positive defender there though. I’m trying to not let my Brewers’ bias speak too much but if everything breaks it’s easy to see Pratt as a future All-Star, and it might not be as far away as being 19 normally would dictate. He’s in my personal Top 5 for this product, but he should be in everyone’s Top 10. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Luke Adams, 20, 3B
In 2023, only 6 teenagers playing full season ball had a .400 OBP / .400 SLG. Five are Top 100 prospects. The 6th is Adams. Sure, it’s mostly because he’s a very patient hitter to the fault of passivity, but there’s a give to all that taking down the line. Adams posted an above average contact rate through it all, and when he invariably ramps up his aggression a bit the .292 BABIP he ran should adjust closer to average, and his results should improve in kind. Not that they were poor – 11 HR as a 19 YO in full-season ball is notable by itself. Adams does not have good speed, but showed surprising athleticism and stole 30 bases last year. He’s not a great defender at 3B, but there’s enough ceiling with his bat to play at 1B if it’s ultimately necessary. It all comes down to the development of that hit tool, which is just foundational. I don’t think it’ll ever be an average asset, but there’s a very high ceiling in its development as means to getting to power – this could be a 30 HR bat. Now in High-A for his age-20 season, we get to see if he can take the next step without giving up too much of that excellent OBP ability. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Filippo Di Turi, 18, SS
One of the Brewers three seven figure signers in the 2023 J15 period, like many international prospects Di Turi is a bit of a project. But it’s not what you think in his case. There’s a strong foundation to his hit tool (he walked more than he struck out in the DSL) and he’s long been touted for his smooth defensive chops. Rather, with Di Turi it all comes down to developing physicality. His speed has played OK thus far but there’s more coming that could leave it as a plus tool. Added lower body strength could also help his fringy range as a fielder as well to cement him as a true SS prospect. He’s shown very little power so far as well, and while whatever he does get to will be determined by that physical development – it’s not likely to be an average asset. We should trust the Brewers here – they pegged Di Turi as a big get and they’ve done great with their International prospects of late — and what Di Turi has shown thus far is definitely positive. But don’t expect him to be a quick riser or have a high hobby ceiling. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7
*Jadher Areinamo, 20, 2B/3B
2023 Bowman Chrome write-up:
Milwaukee could build a hut with small-statured contact-hitters (not a house, because it’s small, get it?), and Areinamo has declared himself to be one of significance this year. He does lack the speed that Dylan O’Rae and Luis Lara have, so he’s well below them as a prospect, but it’s a nice utility profile. Areinamo is hyper aggressive at the plate but he has such a flat swing plane and feel for the barrel that he could continue to get away with it all the way to the majors. He’s smacked over 30 XBH and is hitting over .300 this year - some nice results to be sure. I personally want to see how he fares at higher levels before I project him as a MLB bench utility bat - something like that is his ceiling. Tier: None Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
2024 Bowman update:
Little has changed as we haven’t seen a ton more from Areinamo since the original write-up. He’s still a contact-first bat who hasn’t seen a pitch that he thinks he can’t hit. Starting this season in High-A, that approach has led to an increase from a low teens to a low twenties strikeout rate, but it’s a small sample of less than 20 games. I expect that to tick back down under 20% once he adjusts to the level. He’s still trending as a Tier None utility bat that will have high batting averages and can steal bases but won’t likely ever eclipse double digit home runs.
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
Walker Jenkins, 19, OF
Coming into the 2023 MLB Draft, it was pretty much a consensus that there were five top tier talents at the top of the draft that could end up going in any order - Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins. Of those five, three to four of them have lived up to their billing (depending on your opinion of Crews thus far), while the jury is still loudly arguing about Max Clark. Jenkins has more than lived up to, and possibly exceeded, the expectations he had as part of that group.
Jenkins physically looks the part at 6’3” and 210 pounds with plenty of present strength and athleticism to play anywhere in the outfield. The hit and power tools are both plus with above average tools across the rest of the board. In his small Single-A sample size, the hit tool data was all very impressive - 90% zone contact, 18% whiff, and 9% swinging strike aren’t something you find everyday in a prep bat, especially one that has no-doubt power. Sadly there is almost no video of Jenkins outside of a random Complex game and the one at bat he got in his 2024 season before straining his hamstring. As of writing, he is still on the IL, although the Twins GM has said it’s a standard strain, so hopefully that means just another couple of weeks and we will get plenty of opportunities to watch one of the best prospects in the game.
Tremendous draft pedigree, potential to become the top prospect in the game, perhaps even by the end of the year depending on graduations and performances, and a tool set that is easy to drool over with an outstanding hit tool and big time power potential. Some might argue that Dylan Crews is the top player in this product, and I wouldn’t disagree if you were considering proximity. In the long run, I think it’s easily going to be Jenkins and would not hesitate to pay the price required to get some of his cards. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 10
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Byron Chourio, 18, OF
This fellow Venezuelan is not related to the other two Chourios, but his skills are somewhat similar to (pre-2024) Jaison. Signed by the Marlins in 2022 for low six figures and traded to the Twins in the Luis Arraez deal, he’s made solid progress as a pro. I’m not overly concerned that he only had 3 XBH in his 106 PA last year - he’s long enough that his body projects for at least some power, and he’s already eclipsed that XBH mark this year in Single-A. He controls the zone very well, especially for a player of his age – he walked more than he struck out last year. Depending on where you look his hit projects as high as plus, but I’m personally going to peg that projection as above average until he shows a little more impact. Defense and speed are fine, but not currently carrying tools. There’s a long way to go for Chourio – his body isn’t mature and in full season ball I expect the stat lines to suffer on the surface level until that changes. There’s some strong underlying tools and projection here, but I don’t see him being a star. If you think his hit tool ends up as a plus asset that lets him get to double digit HR though, he’d be a Tier 2 name. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Jose Rodriguez, 18, OF
After signing for a very modest bonus in January 2022, Rodriguez went out and turned heads by hitting 13 HR in the DSL that year. He maintained a semblance of that performance in the Complex, putting him more squarely on the map as an under-the-radar prospect to watch. There’s a long way to go though – don’t expect great things at Single-A this year. He is essentially a power-only bat, but for his age and especially for his lower pedigree, he’s not a completely wild swinger either. To me that bodes well that with time there’s a fair chance he can develop enough of a hit tool to earn promotions and show off that easy pop. There is just a lot of pressure on his bat. He’s not a good runner, and saying he’ll stick as a corner OF is a bit of a stretch. Rodriguez carries a lot of risk – to me it’d take getting close to his ceiling to be a MLB regular, but I’d be willing to take a shot on him because that power is so dreamy. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Carlos Silva, 18, C
Man, sharing a name with a 9-year MLB vet who is also from Venezuela and also played for the Twins sure does make research interesting. This one is a catcher, who signed for $1.1 MM in January of 2023. He has a traditional stocky catcher build and should be able to be at least an average receiver with maturity, but he wasn’t exceptional in that regard in the DSL last year. He was also underwhelming offensively, struggling to hit with contact consistent enough to have positive results. Still, he wasn’t overwhelmed, and reports of his good bat speed are part of what earned him that seven-figure bonus. It’s very clear that Silva, like most international and prep catchers, is in for a long development process. There’s not a well-defined projection on any of his tools at this time. He’s probably for team collectors only at release. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3-5
New York Mets
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Boston Baro, 19, SS
Baro is a long, lean 6’2” that’s mostly projection at this point, but his excellent plate approach and ability to make contact had him signed to an overslot $700k in the 8th round of the 2023 Draft. He’s also an excellent fielder for his age and all signs point to him remaining at SS. Right now his speed is middling and his power is well below average, but Baro is not in his final form. Both of those tools should tick up as his body nears maturity, but how far is the big, intriguing question. For the reason of being so lithe at present, it makes complete sense that Baro will start at the Complex in 2024. In fact, I’d be delighted if all Baro did this year was put up good contact numbers and played solid defense. Put a pin in Baro for a 2026 breakout. I think if everything breaks right, that’s when it’ll come. Players like this who are 70% dream are something collectors love, and Mets fans won’t miss. Just be patient witht he development. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Stanley Consuegra, 23, OF
Consuegra is power-hunting corner OF who had some success last year, but he was older than we’d like for the level and there’s a long track record of swing-and-miss / low contact quality. Now 23 and back for his third year at High-A, Consuegra needs to tone down his swing aggression and take a more mature approach – he’s still very pull heavy. The statline of 23 HR is nice but that success absolutely will not continue in the upper minors when he’s running a low BABIP with a K% near 30. His strong arm is a fit for RF and there’s enough speed to play CF in a pinch, but he’s not a threat on the bases. He does have a nice 6`3” frame, but it’s his mentality that needs to change at this point, and that’s a tough point to get around. In short there’s a lot of pressure on his bat and he’s not showing much improvement in that area. There is a good ceiling for the hobby, but especially for his age, he carries a ton of risk. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Jeffry Rosa, 19, OF
One way of looking at Rosa is that he’ll be 20 in September and hasn’t yet played stateside. The other way is that even though he was repeating the league, he launched a DSL-leading 15 HR last year. Rosa is already physically mature and thick in his lower half – it’s easy to see how he got to that power. I think that’s his carrying tool, but don’t expect anything close to a repeat in the Complex. He was quite aggressive with a lot of swing-and-miss – I would expect a high K% and be delighted if it’s sub 30%. From what I see he needs to progress with that hit tool quite a bit before he’s ready for full season ball. Though his body has largely been filled out for a few years now, he’s maintained it well and should retain enough speed to stick in RF, but isn’t a factor on the base-paths. It was a positive season last year and centered around power output. We’ll see if he can build on it this year. If he quickly shows some positive returns he’s worth taking a look at, but do not go crazy based on those DSL HR totals. There’s a narrow path to success, and he’ll likely be old for his levels throughout his progressions. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
Anthony Baptist, ??, OF
There is a massive overriding factor with Baptist, if that’s his real name – he’s currently suspended for lying about his age and identity. We don’t know for how long (typically a significant duration), if he’s criminally culpable in the fraud, or how old he actually is at this juncture. Prospect and hobby-wise the last point is the most important. We can surmise that he’s older than 17 YO he was assumed to be when he was playing in the DSL last year. To me, exactly how much older isn’t critical. Because of the general differences in physical maturation, I flag most anyone that’s playing in that league and is over 18. Baptist very likely was. To overcome having that flag, a prospect needs to show real maturity and performance in tandem. Baptist didn’t have that – while his performance was fairly good, he was quite raw, and after coming back from an injury only DH’d, which seems to have affected his performance. Baptist still has one well-defined tool that when he returns he can hang his hat on – speed. This was a $1.1 MM signee back in 2023, after all. Everything else should be dismissed for now until we know where he truly should be as a prospect in relation to his age. Like many DSL players there’s simply no floor at all with Baptist, but unlike others his non-existent floor has two bottoms. Not likely, but it’s in the realm of possibility that he never plays another game in professional baseball due to legal issues. There’s the stronger possibility that when he resumes he will have a new organization and/or no longer be known as Anthony Baptist – that bit is more relevant and actionable for the hobby. His situation is a complete mess, and with as far away as he definitely still is, an easy avoid in this product. He’s earned this unique risk assessment. Risk: 11 Ceiling: 4-6
New York Yankees
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
George Lombard Jr., 18, SS
The rumors and mocks leading into the 2023 MLB Draft were all pointing towards the Yankees drafting Sammy Stafura, a prep shortstop from New York. However, when it came time for the Bronx Bombers to draft at pick 26 in Round 1, with Stafura still on the board, they chose another prep shortstop, in this case out of Florida, in George Lombard Jr.
Lombard is the son of a former major leaguer and reportedly has the positive baseball IQ and makeup that often comes along with that. He has a good zone recognition and plate approach, leading to high walk rates. On the other hand, there is some swing and miss in his game, currently with just a 66% zone contact rate as of writing. He’s also continuing to show the poor ground ball rates we saw in a small taste of Single-A last year carry over into this year at 58%. At present, his power is mostly to the gaps and has yet to hit one in a game that counts. The one he did hit in Spring Training this March went to the opposite field gap, which does portend future above average to plus power potential. Lombard was billed as an above average runner coming into the draft, but his results have been much more impressive as he’s stolen 13 of 16 bases in just 29 professional games. That’s in part likely due to his natural instinct for baseball given being around the game all of his life and something that should stick. Defensively he probably moves over to third base or second base as he’s not fluid enough to push better defensive players off of shortstop. This puts a bit more pressure on his bat which is something to be cognizant of.
First round draft pedigree, Yankees team context, baseball bloodlines, and a potential for above average or better tools across the board all push Lombard Jr. into Tier 2. The lack of home runs and some of the contact negatives, at least in the short term, may cap his ceiling, but all of the other context gives him a strong short term Hobby floor. It may be a bumpy ride as he’s just 18 years old, so I would probably target the dips, but I also wouldn’t argue against just continuing to sell until the contact rates are consistently better. The talent is there, the make-up is there, and now we just need to see the results trend positively. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
John Cruz, 18, OF
Traded to the Marlins this March in the Jon Berti deal, Cruz is a Yankee in this product. It’s a major bummer to move to such a negative team in terms of both player development and hobby market, because he’s got quite the high hobby ceiling. Signed for a meager 75k in January 2022, it wasn’t until last year in the Complex that Cruz broke through as a prospect to watch. He led the Florida Complex League with 10 HR (among age-appropriate players), converting some of the passivity from his 2022 season to performance. He has a frame and swing that should lend itself to true all-fields power in the future, and his upper half has a lot of room for development. It’s too early to say exactly how high that power ceiling is, but it figures to be his carrying tool. He does have an approach as a hitter and isn’t a wild swinger, which for a player who’s so young, is an excellent sign that the hit tool can develop well enough to at least let his power play in-game. How much speed he loses as he grows into his body remains to be seen, but he’s already shown enough rawness up the middle that he’s moved to the OF corners. I don’t expect a repeat of the Complex this year in Single-A as an 18 YO, but if he hits double digit HR with a sub-30% in the FSL, it’ll definitely be a positive season. He’s a great name for this product, though with this new organization he will surely slide into sleeper territory. The changing-of-team context is what’s pushing him to the top of Tier 3 for me. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8
Agustin Ramirez, 22, C
Ramirez is Exhibit A on development not being linear, especially for catchers. Heading into 2023 Ramirez was a 21-YO who hadn’t yet sniffed full season ball, though he was coming off a breakthrough season at the Complex. The 2023 season proved that breakthrough to be, surprisingly, not a fluke. In Single-A, where he was most of the year, Ramirez didn’t have stellar results but proved his plate approach was solid. Then he went completely bananas when he was promoted to HIgh-A Hudson Valley in late June – a ridiculous .384/.430/.714 that had him promoted again to AA after a month. That proved a bit much, but now in 2024 he’s again shown he can get hot with the best of ‘em, swatting 7 HR in his first 10 games. There’s a lot to be questioned about consistency, but two things are certain – Ramirez can get on base, and he has above average game power. His defense is not a forte, and if his offensive profile continues trending up a move to 1B is viable, although his reps there have been sparse thus far. There’s a definite path to the majors even with his current tools. He just has to prove it for a little longer, perform better than Jesus Rodriguez, and the Yankees have to have a need. I think the likelihood is that he’s ultimately a 300 AB bench bat or 2nd-division regular, but with decent power and OBP. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Jared Serna, 21, 2B
Serna doesn’t play like he’s 5’7” by any means. He has some real pull-side juice, but he doesn’t hunt for that power. He looks to slash liners wherever he can, and was quite adept at it last year, at least in Single-A where he smacked 41 XBH (19 HR) in 95 games. Even after promotion, there were positive signs that he was going to be able to adapt, though the power numbers were lesser. Throughout it all his K% was well under 20% – though the strong contact rate doesn’t tell the full story that when he lifts the ball, it tends to be weak contact. That’s OK though – he has plus speed so hitting liners and grounders makes complete sense. He’s also such a strong defender at 2B that he’s being given some run at SS – there’s an outside shot he retains that versatility. Serna is, if you squint the right way, a 5-tool talent. The only negatives I really see is that he’s a hair old for the level now entering his age 22 season at High-A. Still, his speed and defense give him a floor, and his power and hit have at least a middling ceiling. He’s a nice name for the product as long as we’re just treating him as an under-the-radar type who has a shot to stick as a well-balanced 2B or super-Util. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
Jesus Rodriguez, 22, C/1B/3B
The catcher trees in Venezuela were in full bloom for 2024 Bowman - to be fair, Rodriguez is defensively capable at a variety of positions beyond catcher. He’s turned himself into the jack of all trades utility player with the added benefit of being a competent catcher.
The hit tool is potentially plus with average or better walk rates and plus strikeout rates, never having struck out at a rate of higher than 17%. The power is below average, never getting to double digits in any minor league season. He could probably get to a bit more in game if he sold out for it, but I doubt it would be worth it. Speed on the base-paths isn’t really part of his game. Rodriguez’s profile is really all about the plus hit tool and the defensive versatility.
I’m not really sure why Rodriguez has fallen off of prospect radars besides the fact that the Yankees system continuously is in the upper half of the org rankings and it’s usually got a fair amount of catchers ahead of him on the depth chart. It may just be a tough list to crack. There is an idea that he doesn’t have a defensive home and that’s a negative, rather than the idea that he’s simply versatile. If he’s not a catcher, he’s going to have to continue to hit at the upper levels to the tune of .280 or better while maintaining the plate discipline that includes a sub-20% strikeout rate. A hit only guy doesn’t exactly move the needle at offensive-premium positions like third base, first base, or corner outfield. So in that sense, I can somewhat understand the lack of fanfare with Rodriguez. For the Hobby, the Yankees bump will help a bit. Outside of that, the catcher tag, even if it’s only a part of his profile, keeps interest suppressed. Furthermore, the lack of the power and the speed really caps the Ceiling. This is a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None profile, but I really like the hit tool and the Yankees context, at least in the short term, and that pushes him into Tier 3 for me. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
Enmanuel Tejeda, 19, 3B
Whoo, the Yankees really hammer Tier 3. Now in his age-19 season in Single-A, Tejada's hitting ability is mature beyond his years. He controls the zone very well and makes good swing decisions, resulting in a very high quality of contact. He ran a .390 BABIP last year. Not that he’s perfect — there is still work to do in going to the opposite field with authority. Tejada is not projectable – at 5’9” and mostly mature physically, all the power he gets to will come from improvements in his skill as a hitter. It should still be double digit HR’s at maturity, which is OK if he’s throwing up a high-.300 OBP as he should for the next while in the minors. His speed is a positive part of his profile, and he’s hyper-aggressive on the base-paths. He’s already stolen 32 bases in 70 stateside games. He’s also off to a strong start in full season ball as I thought he might. Is his hit tool so strong that he reaches High-A as a teenager? Perhaps. On the defensive side he’s likely to end up as a 2B, perhaps fill a Utility role. Tejada is an intriguing prospect who will go as far as his hit tool takes him. I don’t think his hobby ceiling is super-high, but there should be global interest. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Tier None
None
Oakland Athletics
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
*Daniel Susac, 22, C
2023 Bowman write-up:
Being an early round (especially college) college catcher hasn’t been a hobby-friendly position to be in the last few years. Some have panned out, but only Adley Rutschman’s hobby stock has really taken off. The 2022 Draft could be the one to buck the trend with the likes of Susac, Kevin Parada, and Dalton Rushing.
Taken 19th overall, the Arizona product is a very large presence behind the plate at 6’4” – perhaps too large. If he has to move off the position because of a decrease in agility, he might work at 3B because of his plus arm. But we care the most about his bat for the hobby, and that’s what had him taken in the first round. He has more raw power than he’s shown in-game, and there’s a chance that it only stays as mostly gap-to-gap power. The hope is that’s not the case because his hit tool is squarely average. He was just OK at making contact in college due to a propensity for chasing outside the zone, and he didn’t get on base enough to make up for it. For him to hit his ceiling as a .250 BA / 25 HR backstop, there’s simply a lot of development remaining. He’ll be 22 in May and was assigned to High-A to start the year - hopefully it’s a quick development so he can contribute to the bucking of this hobby catcher trend. Tier: 2 Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
2024 Bowman Update:
Not much has changed with Susac, which is not what we wanted to see. The hit tool has been a bit better than expected as he’s kept the strikeouts in a manageable range in the 20% range with an average walk rate. Contact rates are all in that average to above average area as well. The main thing was the power, and how we wanted to see it in-game. And like we worried about, it hasn’t happened. Across two levels in 2023 Susac had just 8 home runs. There is still a lot of development remaining, but the clock is ticking faster and the A’s haven’t exactly been turning raw hitter clay into works of art. At this point, he’s trended towards more of a Tier 3 player than the Tier 2 we had him in originally.
Myles Naylor, 19, SS
The Cleveland Guardians passed on Naylor, and one would think that they must have had the inside info on Myles with his two older brothers currently on their MLB roster. That left him for the A's to draft him at the 39th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Cleveland’s a smart organization and the A’s, well the A’s are sadly the farthest thing from that.
Despite Cleveland passing on the youngest Naylor, he’s not a bad player - he’s just not the middle infield hit-tool only guy that the Guardians love to target. Naylor’s got good raw power and while he likely ages out of it, enough speed to chip in steals early in his career. The hit tool, however, is still a major question mark. In his post-draft 2023 sample, Naylor struggled to recognize and hit spin. He’s shown some improvement with that in the early going here in 2024, but he is still striking out almost 30% of the time as of writing. Currently playing shortstop almost exclusively, Naylor’s long term home is somewhere on a corner. I’ve seen some bad throws for Naylor and physically he will grow out of the position. He has enough arm to stick at third base, which should keep the pressure off of his bat that a move to first would force.
The name value alone, as we’ve seen time after time in the Hobby, will push Naylor above where he should be price-wise in my opinion. More than likely Naylor ends up as a low batting average, low steals, above average power bat with a recognizable name, and that’s not something that justifies what I imagine his prices out of the gate will be. He’s a Tier 3 player that may be priced like a Tier 2 player, and if that is the case, I’d be selling into that hype all day long. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
Ryan Lasko, 21, OF
Taken just two picks after fellow 2024 Bowman A’s prospect Myles Naylor at 41st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lasko has similar hit tool issues with spin. His swing needs work, and his pre-swing feet movement timing mechanism looks a bit awkward. Naylor’s power profile is potentially better as Lasko has just average in-game juice even if there is a physical presence that suggests much more raw power. Lasko excels in the outfield and has the ability to play all three positions on the grass with a plus arm, above average speed, good routes, and a willingness to toss his body around to make the catch.
In the very small sample of pro games, Lasko has yet to hit almost anything nor put a ball over the fence as of writing. It’s a bit worrisome from a college bat that is playing at the lowest levels of the minors, even if the sample is minuscule. Reports that he’s a gamer and has a great mentality are always good to see, and hopefully that translates to him finding his footing sooner rather than later.
Given his defensive tools, there's a decently high floor of a 4th/5th outfielder type. If the hit tool develops so that he can turn his raw power into game power, suddenly he’s a potential everyday starter and worthy of fringe Tier 2 consideration. Possessing only average tools for the two the Hobby values most (hit and power), even as a second round pick, knocks him down into Tier None until we see him hit his stride in the Minors. Before diving in, I was anticipating in my head that I would have Lasko in Tier 3 given what I knew of him from his college efforts. However, the lack of results so far and one of the absolute worst landing spots from player development, organization stability, and team collectability are the final nail that pushed his cards over the edge into Tier None for me. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Ramon Landaeta, 17, C
Stop me if you’ve heard this before - a prospect catcher from Venezuela. The trees, there full of them, I tell ya. The A’s signed Landaeta as part of their 2023 International Free Agent class, giving him their second highest reported bonus payout at $750K and he spent all of 2023 in the DSL.
At 6’2”, Landaeta is a bit taller than most catchers, and he definitely looks like a larger dude behind the dish. That length is complimented by the typical stockier build you see with catchers, so physically it’s probably an obvious fit for him. He’s not a fast runner, and in the little video out there, it looks below average. I even saw a potential TOOTBLAN that he was lucky to get away with. At the plate, he showed a fair amount of patience with a 13% walk rate and was able to fight off spin, but I didn’t see much impactful contact. There was too much on the ground, resulting in a 50% ground ball rate for the season. The strikeout rate was over 30%, which isn’t great, even if I didn’t catch any of those on tape. Behind the dish, I was underwhelmed with the little I saw of his arm, but otherwise he seemed to handle the wildness that is DSL pitching.
There’s little fanfare, zero rankings on prospect lists, not much of a hit or power tool to speak of as yet, he’s a catcher, and he’s in the A’s organization. In general, that would merit a Tier None ranking. However, until we see these kids stateside, we like to give them the benefit of the doubt and at the very least rank them at the very bottom of Tier 3 which is where we will have Landaeta. For the Hobby, this is an easy one to stay away from in the short term. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3-5
Philadelphia Phillies
Tier 1
Aidan Miller, 19, 3B
The Phillies were delighted to have Miller fall to him at 27th overall in last year’s Draft. He was one of the top preps in the county, and it’s all based in that tool we like most for the hobby — power. Miller missed much of his senior year with a broken hamate bone, which caused that fall, but it didn’t slow him down in his debut where he reached Single-A. Now completely recovered from that injury that tends to sap power, he’s already showing a glimpse of that super high offensive ceiling. He’s physically mature and strong already with a solid approach, so the low minors shouldn’t be much of a challenge, and I daresay at those levels his hit tool will look stronger than it truly is. But I still think there’s potential for it to be an average asset. That won’t matter so much, as there isn’t really a ceiling to his power. It’s a double-plus raw grade, and he showed it off well in 2022 showcases. As I said his body is mature already, and he’s lost enough speed to push him to 3B with a possibility of 1B being his eventual home. I’ve got Miller pegged as a Top 5-ish name in this product even though he’ll probably be slightly more affordable than that. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Raylin Heredia, 20, OF
Even though his current youthfully aggressive approach will clearly not work at higher levels, there’s something to be said about the extremely high BABIPs Heredia ran for over 200 PA’s last year across the Complex and Single-A. Near the .430 mark, it’s very clear, and confirmed with the eye test, that when Heredia makes contact, the quality is excellent and his plus raw power is playing in game. It’s just not quite for HR’s yet. On the flip side, he swings and misses a ton. In Single-A (where the data is accurate) he ran just a 65% contact rate. Though he hasn’t run much to date, he does have good speed that plays well in the field. With a cannon for an arm, he fits the modern athletic-RF mold quite well. There’s an outside shot Heredia becomes a true 5-tool asset, though there’s so much rawness that I don’t think he’ll be treated as such at release. He’ll be a middling name for now, and one to watch develop over the next few years. If those K’s start trending down and you're not holding anything, you’re probably already too late. There’s easily enough ceiling to get him into Tier 3. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Tier None
None
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
*Tony Blanco Jr., 18, 1B
2023 Bowman write-up:
Son of the former 4-time NPB All-Star of the same name, Blanco was hurt for a month of the DSL season and only played 8 games. He was a very highly ranked prospect in his signing period due to his already enormous 6`5, 230 lbs frame that drips with massive power potential, and massive K risk. It’s really the same ceiling as his dad, who made a few BA Top 100 lists before heading to Japan and turning in a few 30+ HR seasons. Hanging so much purely on a bloodline is dangerous, and he hasn’t shown enough on the field yet. But the hobby won’t really care - we’ll see: son of a pro + big bonus + hasn’t proven to be bad = solid prospect. The reality is that we really have no idea. Tier: 3 Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
2024 Bowman update:
Blanco repeated the DSL in 2023 since he only had 8 games in 2022. Unfortunately that again means we don’t have much video nor in-depth data to explore. We did get a full DSL sample (40 games) of top-line data, which essentially proves out the reports we originally saw on Blanco. He’s a big kid with a ton of power and hit tool concerns. He popped 5 home runs, but that came with a very concerning 38% strikeout rate. As a larger man with some thickness to him, he’s not going to be running on base-paths, resulting in zero stolen bases so far in his pro career. The only other interesting note is that Blacno spent almost all of his games at either first base or designated hitter. If he can’t play the outfield, and judging by his physical frame, I wouldn’t be surprised that he’s not going to work out there, the pressure on his bat will be significant. As with all DSL prospects, at the very least they start at the bottom of Tier 3, which is where we had him one year ago. Given that 2023 was the first full DSL experience for Blanco, we’ll treat it the same and keep him in Tier 3, but the risk has not lessened at all, and in fact has heightened even if we were already at the top of the scale in that regard.
Tier None
Esmerlyn Valdez, 20, OF
Valdez is a large man who’s very likely to move to 1B full time within the next few years as his body continues to fill out more fully, but his progression in the Complex and now into Single-A has mostly made up for that. Having power potential was always there for Valdez, it was just a matter of pitch selection and finding quality contact. He flipped that switch in repeating the Complex last year, showing a massive BABIP & ISO improvement while maintaining a palatable K%. Thus far in Single-A he’s managed to keep a semblance of those those gains, but his K% has ballooned into the 30’s. It’s still a great sign that he’s shown a bit of maturation – that’ll need to continue because as I mentioned, that move to 1B is a-coming. He has the power projection for it, and if those gains with his hit tool continue to show as being real there’s a shot he ends up being a prospect of significance in a few years. For now though his gains are still short-term. There’s a lot to prove and it’s a narrow path. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Estuar Suero, 18, OF
Suero was flipped from the Padres as part of the Rich Hill (or is it Ji Man Choi) trade as a lottery ticket, which is a fair present-day evaluation. He was a 325k signee in January 2022. He stands in at a rail thin 6’6”, and at present his biggest issues are an inability to control the zone (common for one of his height) and lack of any impact at all anywhere but his pull side. His shoulders are fairly narrow-set, so while with maturity his levers should give him a bit more pop, I don’t think there’s a lot of true game power coming. To me, with enough strength it’s his tool that’s the one we can hope to tick up enough to be a viable carrying tool — not an easy ask for a man of his height. He does have enough speed to play CF and that will likely tick up with maturity, but it remains to be seen if he becomes a true threat on the base-paths. He’s definitely not ready for full-season ball at present, but we can hope to see an increase in contact rate as he repeats the Complex. It’s more important that he adds some good weight so we can get a better gauge on who he can be. Right now, it’s not a prospect of significance. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
J.D. Gonzalez, 18, C
As a surefire catcher and a 2023 prep, Gonzalez has a long development path ahead, but if it all breaks right he could be a plus defender in the majors. He already has the arm. The Padres’ 3rd Round pick, I’m not terribly surprised that he was held out of games after the draft and is slated for the Complex this year – catching is hard! On the offensive side, I don’t think he could be more raw. There’s not any consistency in his swing, and there are a lot of moving parts at present. It’ll take time, but hopefully his offense and defense come together to a nice confluence 4-5 years down the line. He’s so far away and the simple fact of being a prep catcher is a red flag for the hobby, so I can’t see a ton of hobby interest in him at present. Maybe take a look in a few years and re-evaluate – his cards should still be affordable then. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Carson Whisenhunt, P, 23
The second round draft pick of the Giants in the 2022 MLB Draft was considered a first round talent but fell to the second as he was suspended for failing a PED test leading into the 2022 college season. Even with that black mark (Whisenhunt attributed the failed test to an over the counter supplement), the Giants paid him well over slot.
We only got to see half a season of Whisenhunt in 2023 before he went on the IL in June with an elbow sprain. Fortunately, he was able to rehab without surgery and is back to pitching in 2024. Unfortunately, he gets to face the gauntlet of hitter friendly parks in the PCL to start the season and he’s already been touched up pretty hard in two of his three first starts as of writing.
Whisenhunt throws an above average 91 - 95 mph sinker, one of if not the best change-ups in minor league baseball, and a below average slider/curveball. As we’ve seen in recent years, a pitcher with a dominant change-up without any other plus pitch typically can carve up minor league baseball but not exactly turn that into MLB success. Whisenhunt’s change-up is a thing of beauty and regularly makes minor league hitters look foolish, but his focus in 2024 is if that fastball can take the next step. If it does, you’re potentially looking at a mid-rotation starter, and a future SP2 if the breaker isn’t an afterthought, in a very pitcher friendly park in San Francisco. If it doesn’t, the dreaded bullpen risk turns into much more of a reality. He’s a very high risk, very high reward pitcher for the Hobby, and one I regularly go back and forth on with being in on and out on. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8
Walker Martin, SS, 20
The Giants second round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of the Colorado prep ranks signed for almost double his slot value for $3M. Essentially the Giants built their draft around Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin and went mostly under slot for the rest of the draft.
Martin is a pure athlete that has all five tools potentially ending up at above average or better. A two sport star in high school, he hasn’t had any official pro-game experience since the draft as of writing. Martin will start his career at the Complex shortly before this product drops, so the only pro at bats we’ve seen from him are brief shots of him playing in minor league Spring Training games. Those videos showcase his ability to get the bat to the ball with natural ability and a smooth swing portending future power. All reports on his defensive tools indicate he should have no problem sticking at shortstop with soft hands and enough arm, but an elite defender may push him to third or second base.
The prospect pedigree (first round money & likely a top 5 prospect in the SF org), the lack of weaknesses with a potential plus power tool, and a premium position all lead to a ton of hobby potential for Martin. If I had enough pro looks to sink my teeth into, I wouldn’t be shocked to push Martin even higher than I have him in my overall ranks for this product. Without them, I am going to keep him in Tier 2, but I would not hesitate to pay the hobby money to get a piece of Martin’s cards. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 9
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Cesar Quintas, OF, 21
A 2019 International Free Agent signing of the Giants out of Venezuela in 2019 with little fanfare, Quintas, like all of those signings, had a delayed start to his pro career due to the Pandemic. You’d hope that having another year of physical growth under his belt would mean that Quintas would breeze through the lower levels, but a strong DSL debut (151 wRC+) was followed up by a disappointing stateside debut at the Complex in 2022 (52 wRC+). Repeating the Complex level in 2023 brought a return to strong results (159 wRC+) and Quintas got the call to Single-A to start the 2024 season.
At his best, Quintas provides a solid plate approach with double digit walk rates and low strikeout rates. There isn’t much speed or pop in the bat and it doesn’t look like he has a frame to grow into a bunch more in either area. The hit tool is going to have to be the calling card for Quintas, and it seems like there is some middling potential there given his plate approach. However, I’ve seen him struggle with breakers a fair bit as well as heat up in the zone so far in the 2024 season, so there is a long way to go yet.
Quintas hasn’t ever been on prospect radars and still has not cracked Top 30’s on what has become a middle of the road Giants farm system, even with a strong 2023 at the Complex. He’s going to have to repeat a better than .300 average in 2024 before there’s even some level of interest, but without the power or the speed or the prospect pedigree, there really isn’t much hobby love to be found. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Ryan Vanderhei, P, 22
Vanderhei was passed over in the 2022 MLB Draft and ended up being a cheap money saving Senior signing of the Giants in the 10th round of the 2023 MLB Draft.
He’s a tall, lanky righty who’s bounced between the bullpen and the rotation in college that is all about physical projection at the moment. He’s got a three pitch mix with a fastball typically in the low to mid-90’s, a swing and miss slider, and a show-me change-up. Command is an issue, especially with the heater. It regularly misses to the arm side, but strangely that helps his slider play up as that swing and miss pitch.
Vanderhei has yet to pitch in pro ball as of writing and is assigned to Complex ball to start the 2024 season. It’s worth keeping an eye out to see how the Giants deploy him, but if he isn’t starting and succeeding fast, he’s essentially a risky bullpen arm not worth the Hobby dollar. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2
Seattle Mariners
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Aidan Smith, 19, OF
The 2023 MLB Draft for the Mariners has a chance to be considered one of the best haul of prep bats in recent memory with Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Jonny Farmelo, and Aidan Smith. Smith was the final one of that group selected, taken in the 4th round but given over twice his slot value in the neighborhood of second round money.
It’s such a small sample, but Smith has absolutely crushed so far in 2024 at Single-A Modesto (that team is LOADED). As of writing, he’s hitting close to .300 with 3 home runs and 5 stolen bases in just 11 games (*editor’s note - Smith has cooled off a bit since writing). His contact and hard hit rates are also showing improvements over what he produced in small samples post-draft in 2023. Smith was considered a hit over power bat that shouldn’t have a problem playing any spot in the outfield. The raw power has been better than advertised and the hit tool still has a chance to be plus.
I really liked what I saw on the tape. Smith has a balanced approach with a quiet setup. The swing is just really smooth. There are some concerns around how he will handle spin as he moves up the ladder, and a 23% strikeout rate shows some minor evidence of that. I really only saw one bad swing though, so I think we are seeing what his potential could be right now. And that’s a .280-.300 hitter with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases playing solid outfield defense. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9
Tier 3
Ben Williamson, 23, 3B
Williamson is an advanced college bat that the Mariners took in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft for a significant discount ($600K) over his slot value ($1.44M). This helped Seattle spend big on four huge ceiling prep bats (Emerson, Farmelo, Peete, and Smith).
The hit tool is the only potential plus tool in the tool bag that we care about for the Hobby. He’s got good zone control, regularly spoils tough pitches, and makes a ton of contact. The power is really more gap power, and it likely doesn’t get to more than 10-15 home runs in a season as he isn’t selling out for the long ball. He’s a decent runner even if he hasn’t shown it yet in the minors. It’s not enough to make much of a difference Hobby-wise. Defensively he performs well at third base. He has the arm to make the throws across the diamond and the athleticism to charge the weak ground balls and make throws on the run.
Hit over power third baseman aren’t a profile the hobby is typically in love with. However, Williamson’s tool set is likely set up for an everyday starter role in Seattle or elsewhere. He’s had a really strong start to the 2024 minor league season, hitting over .300 and striking out less than 15% of the time as of writing. That context, along with the fact that he’s probably going to be ranked in the 10-20 range in a strong Mariners system for the foreseeable future is enough for me to squeak him into Tier 3. Lacking that power tool does put a cap on his Ceiling, and it keeps me from having much interest until I see him start putting the ball over the fence with regularity. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Tier None
None
Texas Rangers
Tier 1
*Sebastian Walcott, 18, SS
2023 Bowman Chrome write-up:
The only player that we have ranked in Tier 1 that does not have an autograph - that’s actually not a terrible percentage, but it still hurts to see. It especially hurts our Scouting Director Jake Kerns because he has been the conductor of the Walcott bandwagon from day one. Walcott was a consensus Top 10 prospect in the most recent International Free Agency class and was signed to the sixth highest bonus at $3.2M. He’s tall, lankier 6’4” and looks like he should be putting on solid muscle as he develops and already possesses plus power and plus speed. He’s also got a plus arm and should have no problem sticking on the left side of the infield or even bumping out to a corner outfield spot if needed.
While he started out in the DSL, he was moved to the Complex after only 9 games and spent the majority of his time there. He ended up getting promoted to High-A, because Single-A surely wouldn’t contain him. His stay was brief, as after just four games he was moved to the development list. I choose to believe it was Jake Kerns asking the Rangers for a favor so Walcott’s 1st Bowman prices wouldn’t be as outlandish as they could have gotten if he crushed High-A leading into the product release. I mean, sure, it could be the Rangers looking to use a controlled setting at improving his 30+ percent strikeout rates stateside, but since we don’t actually know, it’s funner to speculate wildly.
Focusing on his Complex efforts and considering that he struck out in almost one third of his at bats, he still managed to hit seven home runs, steal nine bases, and hit .273 in just 35 games. Comps are bad because we are so often wrong, but if you’re looking for an Elly De La Cruz starter kit, it’s right here. Tier: 1 Risk: 8 Ceiling: 10
2024 Bowman update:
Copy, Paste, Done. Literally nothing has changed other than the calendar has clicked over and Walcott started the season in High-A. The strikeout rate is still above 30% and he’s hit just one home run and hasn’t stolen a base in the 16 games he’s played so far as of writing. There isn’t anything different in the profile even with the paltry 2024 production. A massive power-speed Ceiling with strikeout concerns that is the quintessential Elly De La Cruz profile. I’d continue to treat Walcott as a Tier 1 player with a ton of inherent risk.
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Brock Porter, 20, P
Trust the process. Porter only threw 69 innings in 21 games in 2023, never going over 75 pitches in any outing – an intentional throttling to aid his development and “assure his health”. There appears to still be training wheels this year. That said, he is being challenged at levels – Single-A last year and High-A this year. Don’t be fooled by being taken in the 4th Round in 2022. Porter signed for a whopping $3.7 MM as a pay-down from Kumar Rocker savings – the big, projectable righty was a top 5 prep pitcher by all measures. He’s very much looked like it so far. His fastball and change both have plus projection, and his slider has great complimentary movement to both. He was virtually unhittable last year, allowing just a .160 BAA and 7 XBH. The biggest question, and it is a big one, is command. Porter had over 5 BB/9 – the fringiest reaches of being palatable as a starter. It made the Rangers' decision to put kid gloves on him look like a good one. I don’t think Porter is close to a finished product, and based on early returns this year that remains the case. There’s a lot of reliever risk, but he also has a sky-high ceiling – he could be an ace and already has some pro performance to back that up. It’s a rarity that Topps gives us a pitcher like this these days. It’ll be interesting to see how the hobby treats him. I’m putting him near the top of Tier 3 for now. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 9
Abimelec Ortiz, 22, 1B
A 2021 undrafted free agent was a major pop-up prospect in 2023. Getting his vision corrected was a major reason why that happened, and he suddenly went from a sub-.240 hitter to a .290+ hitter. All of that contact allowed him to turn his big time raw power into game power to the tune of 33 home runs across High-A and Double-A.
After 80 games at Double-A in 2023, it was mildly surprising that Ortiz started this year back in Double-A. However, even with the gaudy numbers Ortiz put up in 2023, there is still plenty to work on for Ortiz. Velocity, especially up in the zone, is a big problem for Ortiz. He also struggles more often than not against same side pitchers (lefties). While he can take a walk, he is probably going to live in the danger zone of a 30% K rate. Granted Ortiz started off 2024 on fire, which I think can partially be attributed to repeating the level. Once he got to Arkansas, the least hitter-friendly park in the Texas League, starting with his tenth game of this season, Ortiz recorded one hit in the next five games, so it’s not all been smooth sailing. Ortiz doesn’t look like he ever misses a meal, and at just 5’10”, I don’t see him ever being a threat on the base-paths or being able to play any position other than first base or designated hitter.
I’ve fallen way too many times for the first base power hitting prospect who struggles against top-end velocity. With the power hitting hobby hype that is likely to be brought into the discussion with Ortiz, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tier 2 prices for his cards. Personally I would be selling into any hype along those lines as I think his most likely outcome is more along the lines of a Tier 3 player. A defensively limited strong side platoon bat that is susceptible to swing and miss issues against high end velocity is typically a Tier None player. With the plus power, Ortiz gets the bump into Tier 3. I may be the low man on Ortiz, and I hope I’m wrong as I was excited to see him in the product. Now that I’ve dug in, I’m a lot less excited, even with a high Ceiling given his raw power. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8
Tier None
Chandler Pollard, 20, 2B/SS
The Rangers didn’t have very much money in 2022 after going way underslot on Kumar and then way overslot on Brock Porter with their first two picks. Taking Pollard as the next pick after those two (in round 5) at a slot value of just over $400K was seen by some as a bit of a sleeper pick given Pollard’s performance in his Senior year in the Georgia prep ranks.
At his best, Pollard provides plus or better speed on the base-paths and plus defense on the dirt or in center-field. At worst, he provides some late inning defensive replacement and pinch running value if the hit tool remains fringy like it is now. When I threw on his 2023 Complex tape, I saw a LOT of swing and miss, and a LOT of poor contact. A 36% strikeout rate in 51 games at the Complex in 2023 was fairly earned. If that hit tool doesn’t see marked improvement, he’s unlikely to get to any of his average-ish power.
The profile certainly looked like a CJ Abrams starter kit when he was drafted, but the performance has been nothing along those lines so far. The Ceiling is still basically there, but the Risk has not lessened at all since he was drafted and he’s fallen all the way down into my Tier None. Spending just a small amount of money here isn’t the worst bet, but I’m staying away until there is some sort of improvement in the hit tool to hang the proverbial hat on. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Toronto Blue Jays
Tier 1
Arjun Nimmala, 18, SS
There’s so many articles out there on Nimmala that tell the story better than I can, but it’s a great one. To bottom line it, there is no precedence to being an Indian-American draftee of significance in any North American sports, and he heads to a collectors’ market with the highest percentage of South Asians in North America. Talk about hype. But teams don’t draft a story – they draft talent, and Nimmala has it in droves. It’s mostly the double-plus power projection, but he also has a shot to remain at SS with an average hit tool. Now, that power is all raw at this juncture — don’t expect it to show much this year. The edges to his game, especially his hit tool, are a 20 grit sandpaper. He was placed at Single-A for the beginning of 2024 where it’s been rough, but be patient. He will take 3-5 years to reach the potential we want to see, but that payoff could be epic and have some true significance that could inspire an entire culture. You don’t get to say that about many prospects. Nimmala is a Top 3 name in the product and has no floor in terms of where he ends up, but what he’s already accomplished will be significant forever. He’s not just a good prospect, he’s important. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
David Guzman, 18, OF
I really want to like Guzman more, but I can’t get around that he was a physically mature 5’7” playing in the DSL. There’s a good chance the man-muscles just won out and some of the shine on what looked like an excellent hit tool wears off when he hits the Complex this year. Or, I’m wrong and he’s truly a bat-to-ball savant, which is what he looked like in posting a .403 OBP with more BB (11.7%) than K (10.8%). Based on limited video, he takes healthy cuts at the plate and he’s trying to do damage. How much damage it ultimately becomes will definitely be limited by his frame but with a solid foundation to his contact skills, it could grow to be double-digit HR pop. There are definitely worse players to take a flier on than this 650k-bonus 2023 J15 signee from Venezuela. I’m eager to see how he does in the complex – I’ve put a pin in him for personal interest. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
Sam Shaw, 19, 2B
As a 9th Round Canadian prep, there’s not a lot of polish expected at this point. But Sammy has such a compact frame with a swing designed for contact that he could be in full-season ball in short order, assuming he shows enough impact in the Complex. That’ll be the first hurdle for Shaw to clear as he begins his career, because there’s not much thump in his bat at all. I’ll be looking for some physical maturation and results — it’s as simple as that. I don’t expect much HR pop for now, and if it ever comes it’ll be a nice bonus. The Jays ran him out as a CF in his debut, so while it’s not a plus asset his speed plays well in baseball terms. Hobby-wise there should only be modest interest in Shaw, as even though his hit tool could end up exceptional, right now there are no loud tools. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
Washington NationalS
Tier 1
Dylan Crews, 22, OF
Crews has been the most famous name for the 2023 Draft from the second he withdrew from the 2020 Draft to fulfill his LSU commitment a week prior. Everyone knows the prolific power profile, and it showed in the highest amateur stage. His hit tool also trended so positively there in his Junior year that some had it pulling even to or better than his power grade. I don’t think that. I think he’s a power over hit bat – which is basically what he’s shown in his ~200 pro PA’s thus far. I’m picking nits here though. His hit tool is likely to show as average or better once he gets more acclimated to pro ball. That slower acclimation is also preventing him from getting to the height of his clearly plus power, but it’s coming. In the past I may have said he’s a surefire 35+ HR bat, and I’m only backing off that a little bit to 30+, with an added slight delay to his debut. He’s shown some uncharacteristic aggression — a BB% that maintained in the teens at LSU has dropped to ~6% — that has affected both his contact rate and quality. It seems like an easy fix, but nothing in baseball is easy. It just has been historically for Crews, and he’s seeing his first real down-trend in performance. There’s every reason to think he recovers from this to be the player that was drafted 2nd overall. Defensive and speed…well let’s be honest, nobody cares and it doesn’t matter with Crews. There’s so much pedigree, Crews is the Bowman cover athlete, and his power-centric profile makes him easily a Top 3 name in the product. But we already knew that. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 9
Tier 2
Yohandy Morales, 22, 3B
Long thought of as a top prospect for the 2023 Draft, Morales slipped to 40th overall due to swing decision concerns. Though it was a small sample size, when you look at the 2023 debut numbers that seems a little silly, as he was locked in, hitting his way all the way to AA with a sub-20 K%. The early 2024 numbers now tell the story of what happens when he’s not locked in – an ugly K% and some wild swing decisions – closer to the 2nd Round value we expected. That’s OK though, it’s because the most intriguing part of Morales is his power projection. Though he’s 22 years old and 6’3”, 225 already, there’s still quite a bit of physical strength that could be added. Not that he really needs it – he hit 20 HR at Miami last year and 18 the year previous. That power comes really easy for Morales, though there’s work to do on launch angle optimization. Morales is also a quality fielder at third with a great arm, though he may slow down so much that he ends up at 1B down the line. That’s fine for his offensive profile. His hit tool circling near-average is what’s most important, and if it does he’s easily an MLB regular with 30 HR potential. The Nationals haven’t had much luck organically developing talent lately, but along with Dylan Crews that trend may be coming to an end, and those hungry Nats collectors can finally eat. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Travis Sykora, 20, P
A roughly top 50 prospect headed into the 2023 MLB Draft, Washington drafted Sykora in the second round at 71st overall and paid him well over double his slot value ($1M) at $2.6M. Sykora is a tall, lanky prep arm out of Texas that has yet to throw a professional inning as of writing - he likely starts the year at the Complex level in early May.
Sykora features big time heat from the right side with the ability to touch triple digits, although he mostly lives in the mid to upper 90’s. He pairs that with a mid-80’s gyro slider and a similar velocity split-change, both with the potential to be plus pitches.
All of his video looks are from high school and the prep All-Star circuit, so it’s really difficult to have any sort of useful evaluation at this point. The stuff is filthy. However, the organization is one that I have a LOT of questions about in regard to developing pitchers. And with Sykora’s body type - 6’6” with a lot of length in his limbs, the mechanics of that body type are something that tend to need a lot of work as it goes from teenager to mid-20 something, fully formed human being. I am really hesitant to jump in with both feet here. I might dip a toe in if it’s cheap, but otherwise the Risk is sky high even if the Ceiling is as well. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
Tier None
None