This off-season, I’ve taken a look back at past Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. This is the seventh in this series. I previously wrote about 2018 Bowman Draft, 2019 Bowman, 2019 Bowman Chrome, 2019 Bowman Draft, 2020 Bowman & BC, 2020 Bowman Draft, 2021 Bowman, and 2021 Bowman Chrome. This is my final retrospective for this off-season as we’re now into the MiLB season in earnest.
By far the best Bowman release of 2021, Draft offers the usual crop of recent draftees. With it being 2.5 years post-draft, it’s prime time for high-schoolers to be hitting an apex and college bats to be debuting from this class, and that’s very much the case. But is it that these guys are truly special, or is the release just especially deep? Let’s take a look.
Top of the Crop
Is there proximity fatigue setting in with Jordan Lawlar? He’s been a top prospect in the game since he was drafted in both the hobby and real life alike, and he’s been in the high minors since August of 2022. He’s performed well all along, unless you’re taking something from his 34 PA sample in the majors. I think the Diamondbacks have the luxury of giving him more extensive run in AAA with Geraldo Perdomo on the roster – Perdomo is league average or better everywhere but power, after all. Lawlar’s projection is the deluxe version of that – he’s a potential Gold Glove contender at SS, has better speed, and is likely to have 15-20 HR seasons. His hit tool is the biggest question but it’s likely to be at least average with a bit more maturity. He’s very clearly a future major league starter, and the Diamondbacks want him to be a franchise cornerstone. There’s just a little more work to do for him to get there. Now out for a while due to a thumb injury and headed to AAA afterwards, if it lasts too far into the season, I’d be looking for a buying opportunity.
I probably wouldn’t have Jackson Jobe up here immediately after the 2023 season, but what he showed in Spring Training was really impressive – it’s not just me that’s buying it as more than hype. Jobe, to me, is the #1 pitching prospect in the game not named Paul Skenes. Armed with four pitches that have plus potential including that triple-digit fastball, Jobe has very high-K upside and gets tons of swing-and-miss. Though his 2023 season began late due to a back injury, he made up for it by being dominant at each of the three levels he touched, then went to the AFL and pitched well there too. His control is excellent as well, though his command is the one thing that could use a little more refinement - his HR% was a touch high. If he performs well in Erie to begin 2024, it’ll be hard for the Tigers to hold him down for long. There’s very obvious ace potential with Jobe, and his prices have risen this spring to reflect that.
Carson Williams has 4 loud tools that are all showing already – he won a minor league gold glove in 2022, hit 20+ HR in High-A at age 20, and stole 20 bases in both of his minor league seasons. The biggest question, of course, is his hit tool – the one that most affects ascension to the majors. He ran a K% over 30% and a contact rate under 70% – it’s clear there are legitimate swing-and-miss issues. While he doesn’t wash away those concerns completely with his plate approach, that’s a positive aspect of his current game. And clearly when he makes contact it’s quality – it’s completely believable that his high BABIP and 46 XBH% should continue. He just needs to find a way to make a little more contact. Then he would be a future cornerstone player for the Rays and a potential hobby superstar. He’s already aggressively priced as such, but I personally think we’re looking at a multi-time All-Star here.
MLB
Colton Cowser is closer to the .308/.417/.520 he slashed in AAA than what he showed in his 77 PA sample in the MLB last year. There was also quite a bit of bad luck in that small sample too – it’s hard to hit .115 with a sub-30 K% and 25 LD%, but Cowser managed it! All the underlying things Cowser was good at in AAA carried over to the majors, he just didn’t see results. It’s what gave him the inside track to start 2024 in the majors (in a bench role for now), and his excellent Spring Training cemented it. Do I think he has 25-30 HR potential like Heston Kjerstad? No. But I think he’ll play a solid OF and show a solid plate approach with enough power and speed to say he’s a threat in all aspects. I don’t think he has the ceiling of a hobby star, but he's almost certain to be a big league regular, and there’s a comfort in that.
I’ve always loved Gavin Williams. I don’t love that he hurt his elbow in Spring Training and is behind to start the season, but I digress. Williams has at least a mid-rotation ceiling, and almost pitched to that effect in his rookie season. There was only one single outing where he was blown up, in 16 starts. He just needs to show enough command to consistently go deep into games. I think his stuff (three pitches that are at least above average) will eventually prove to be enough to put up a high K%, and that remains a bit untapped at the big league level. Buy now while he’s hurt. It might be your last chance before his cost to acquire spikes (again).
I’ve also loved Bryce Miller since release. He has a riding high-90’s fastball that he uses to set up a kitchen sink full of secondaries (slider, sinker, sweeper, changeup, and a new splitter). He’s a tinkerer, but command is important to him – he’s very cautious of how he uses certain pitches. Everything stems from that fastball though, and that’s what he uses as a putaway pitch most often. For now he’s mid-rotation, but I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Bryce Miller yet – once he settles into a mix that will work for him long-term, and with the groundwork of being a workhorse already laid, we might be calling him the #2 in the Seattle rotation. I’m bullish on his future, and the hobby values him in the same way at present.
Tanner Bibee had a better 2023 rookie year than anyone in this class, and there’s a solid foundation that indicates he should continue as a #2/3 SP for years to come. His fastball and change are truly just average, and his slider just above average, but exceptional control of everything makes it all add up to more than the sum of the parts. He attacks the zone with everything, and the dissimilarity between his pitches makes him truly tough to square up – the AL ROY runner-up surrendered only a .353 SLG. An auto-only subject in this release, Bibee is still quite affordable (Cleveland is a value-suppressive hobby market).
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has never failed anywhere he’s played. It’s just been success after success, which is only unexpected because he’s quite limited athletically. His debut last year saw him hitting 13 HR while hitting for a decent average – including AAA it was over 30 HR. He makes up for his very aggressive tendencies and swing-and-miss by hitting the ball with ideal launch angles that amplify his plus power. His quality of contact is generally excellent. He’s definitely not a perfect player, but he’s an exciting one to watch at the plate. CES is a properly-valued hobby asset with a little more room to grow in the event that he ratchets up that power another notch.
An uptick in command did wonders for Andrew Abbott’s certainty in being a high-K mid-rotation arm. The undersized southpaw uses a low-90’s fastball to set up his secondaries – he used his change as out pitch last year against righties (39% whiff), and was generally really tough against same-handed hitters. He does give up a lot of fly balls in a home ballpark not conducive to it, but the K% should more than make up for it. It’s completely fine as long as you only have mid-rotation expectations, and he showed he has the ability to be a workhorse after totaling over 150 innings last year. There’s a lot of interest in Abbott’s high-end cards, but for how well he’s done the more common stuff is cheap.
The results in his 235 PA rookie year weren’t great, but Henry Davis was dealing with a hand injury from early August forward, and hadn’t hit his stride prior. The former #1 overall pick earned his way to the majors by showing glimpses of his double plus raw power while performing well at every stop. Deployed in the OF because he’s athletic enough to do so last year, in 2024 Davis will mostly move back behind the dish. Will that affect his already marginal MLB production? We’ll see, but long-term I’m a believer that Davis will be an above average big-leaguer. On the negative side, being such a high draft pick made his prices start really high, and being a catcher makes it tough for him to hit high offensive benchmarks. So I’m not overly interested in him hobby-wise, but only because he’s so darn expensive.
I think all Brewers fans like Sal Frelick for what he is – a contact maven who’s great at getting on base and plays solid defense. He added an ability to play 3B in the offseason, and it’ll be interesting to see how he integrates into what I assume will be a super-util role once the Brewers’ roster gets healthy. Without much power or significant speed on the bases there’s a limit to how high he can go in the hobby, but indications so far are that he’ll get near the ceiling of expectations.
Hunter Goodman, destroyer of baseballs. Well at least that’s what he was in the minors last year before his 77 PA debut (close enough for me to put him here for this release). Adjusting to the majors is hard, even in Coors, so I look to the minors instead where he smashed 34 HR across AA/AAA. There’s a lot of contact and approach issues within that, even while experiencing success. For a brief snapshot of this, look at 15-game stint in AAA – .371/.418/.903, but with a 25 K% and 66% contact rate. Plenty of concern to be had, and it just came to fruition in the majors. Unfortunately with Kris Bryant and Charlie Blackmon at his potential positions, he’ll head back to AAA to begin the season where we won’t get to see if he can exorcise that Quad-A dog in him. Goodman remains a high-risk player for the hobby despite his experience in the majors, but one with definite boom potential.
Mason Miller has fantastic stuff, but a long injury history leaves him as a relief option in a terrible collector’s market. He will definitely be in the mix to close games with the A’s this year, but he hasn’t seized that role. As long as he’s active he will dazzle, as his high-90’s fastball is generally well located and gets lots of weak contact, and his plus slider gets tons of whiff. Contrary to many relief arms Miller has average command, but he gets into big trouble when he’s not on. For what his future holds Miller is a hair overvalued – but I’m assuming he’ll be in the bullpen long-term. If you think that’s wrong and he can somehow build up a starter’s workload, by all means, the price is right at the moment.
The first top-10 pick from the draft to the majors, Sam Bachman spent the majority of the season with the big club. Of course, much of it was on the IL, and he was deployed as a reliever when healthy. He also begins this season on the IL after offseason surgery, as rest did not cure the shoulder issue that landed him there in July. Although he did have that vaunted draft status, Bachman has never had a high ceiling – the thought was that he was just a near-finished product and close to the majors. Getting drafted by the Angels made that projection an assurance, even though he’s never performed particularly well as a pro. Where he goes from here as he ramps up to health this summer is a complete mystery, and I don’t trust the Angels’ development – so I’m very much out on his potential to make it to any hobby relevance.
Proximity Prospects
I’m redefining this section just a hair. These guys may or may not be relevant for the hobby, but they all figure to be less than a year from the majors.
I’m going to frame Jackson Merrill as he relates to this product, not where he’d be if everything was how we like it. Merrill’s cards in this product feature a photo of a HS showcase circuit teammate – it’s very obvious that it’s not Merrill, as the batter shown is a righty, with Merrill being a lefty. He also does not have autographs in the set. But this is still our first “Jackson Merrill” card, and he’s a Top 25 prospect in the game who won a job with the Padres to start the 2024 season. It’s a great story that he earned it by learning to play outfield on the fly too. Merrill doesn’t figure to have huge power, especially this year at age 20, but he’s such a strong hitter that there was nothing left to prove in the minors. He’s a 5-tool player, with that hit tool potentially being a double-plus asset with a bit more maturity. He has all the makings of an excellent player for the hobby, but in this product, there’s a lot of caveats to his content within.
Ricky Tiedemann’s stuff is better than any lefty in the minors, but below-average command and injury concerns leave him with considerable relief risk. He only made it through 44 innings last year (including rehab) due to a biceps strain, and was already dinged up early this spring. There’s no obstacles to the Blue Jays calling him up, but he’s definitely not ready for a starter’s workload in the majors this year. I do like him to see time in Toronto out of the bullpen come summer, and in putting him there there’s risk he just stays there. It’s very, very clear he’s at least a high leverage bullpen option, but with multiple plus pitches in his bag and a 40 K% at AA, the Jays want him to be a starter long-term. He could flash out of that bullpen this year, and the hobby wouldn’t blink in understanding that it’s just a stepping stone to his ace potential. There’s a long way to go with his command to get there though. Always a hobby favorite, Tiedemann is properly valued.
There was simply no way of knowing former 5th-round pick Christian Scott was going to do what he did in 2023. Heading into the year he hadn’t seen the upper minors at all heading into his age-24 year, and though in 2022 he was good at power suppression and got plenty of swing and miss, his command was iffy and he was at a level not befitting his age for the entire year. His most recent season was a different story. Though he started late, he quickly pushed up to AA and took the positives from his 2022 season and added command to it. Paring down to just his 2023 Double-A sample, it was one of the most dominant lines at the level, period – 32.8 K%, 3.8 BB%, and a 0.84 WHIP. As I’ve described, the fact that this was just something that clicked and didn’t come out of nowhere is something to take note of. He has two legitimate plus offerings in his fastball and slider, and clear command of both. It’s not a matter of if, but when he makes an impact in Queens this year. His cost to acquire is considerable now, but so is his ceiling.
Tyler Black is an on-base machine that showed a surprising acumen for stealing bases, but lacks a true defensive home. I don’t think the defense is truly holding him back should he continue to tear up AAA, but it limits when Black will be called up – he’s not likely to be just called up as an injury replacement this year. There will be a measured approach and when the Brewers see his bat as ready, he’ll get an everyday shot with the Crew. Assuming moderate power gains, I think Black’s ceiling is something like Justin Turner with speed – pretty nice for the hobby.
Traded to the Guardians last year, Kyle Manzardo figures to be an important piece of that lineup in Cleveland by the summer. He’s ready now with over 400 PA’s in AAA and a very nice Spring Training, but roster machinations justifiably push him out. If his power was a louder tool that may have not been the case, as he would be a ROY contender, but I see Manzardo’s ceiling as only 20-25 HR at first base. What makes him such a great prospect is his hit tool – it’s a potential double-plus grade. At peak I’d expect an OBP near .400 with a sub-20 K%, with nearly as many BB as K. That’d make him a near All Star at least. You’ll notice I didn’t reference any of his 2023 stats – Manzardo had an emergent personal issue at the beginning of the year that he continues to deal with, in addition to the changing to a new organization. I think those had some impact on his performance, and I absolutely expect him to rebound in 2024, not that he really needs it to make it to Cleveland by June.
I’m picking up what Denzel Clarke has been laying down for the last year. There’s still a ways to go for the nearly 24-YO, but his maturation has been impressive. He comes with everything you expect from a 6’5” frame — big raw power and big swing-and-miss. But he toned it down considerably in 2023 as he moved to AA for the first time – his K% dropped 6.5%, his SwStr% dropped 4%, and his approach maintained, leading to a .381 OBP for the year. Unfortunately it was all cut short by a shoulder strain in July. He’s a good enough athlete to stick at either corner and steal 10-15 bases at maturity as well. I think with the rosiest of glasses the A’s have a power-centric future star on their hands. With that poor Oakland market and base-only status suppressing his prices a bit in this release, it’s an easy buy for me.
Connor Norby is such a limited defensive piece that he’s been bandied about as trade bait for over a year now as he just keeps performing in the high minors. Norby has hit over .290 since getting to AA and amassed 103 XBH in just under 1000 PA’s in the two upper levels – knocking balls hard into gaps is his forte. It feels like everything he does is just a showcase for whoever trades for him. With not-so-great range and speed, he’s very clearly just a 2B, but his bat will play just fine there, or even if he has to split to 2B/DH hybrid. His opportunity will just not be with the Orioles – they have too many players who can do those same things with more versatility. It’d take more than one injury for Norby to see significant playing time, and without a 40-man spot, it’s not a lock at all. I like Norby for the hobby but he doesn’t have a superstar ceiling and isn’t yet in the organization where he’ll spend his formative MLB years.
Command, command, command. Assuming he makes strides with that one weakness, I don’t know that Dominic Hamel sees less than 12 starts in Queens this year. Christian Scott should get first crack when the Mets decide to dip into the ranks of their prospects, but Hamel isn’t far behind and is the likeliest of their high-minors prospects (other than Scott) to remain a starter. It’s still only a 75% chance. The road to hoe yet with his command is of the start-to-start variety – but when he’s on he’s on, and he was on more than not last year, compiling a nice 31.7 CSW% at AA. All of his pitches figure to be average or better offerings – it just comes down to that command. He does have a mid-rotation ceiling, but is understandably priced with a little trepidation (he is 25 after all). If you’re not afraid, there’s still a lot of affordability.
Chayce McDermott’s stuff is louder than Hamel’s, but he has less control. It might not matter. There’s so much swing-and-miss (33%) that it tips the scale from the high BB%. It’s become more of a feature than a bug, but the Orioles surely wouldn’t mind him toning down the walks if he’s to be thought of as a starter. At 25 and with 50 innings of experience at AAA and in an organization in need of an impact depth arm, I think McDermott should debut this summer, perhaps out of the bullpen to start. A base-only subject, McDermott's parallels are surprisingly expensive – I suppose he does have that high-K ceiling.
Robert Gasser continues to bide his time in the high minors, waiting for his chance to debut with the Brewers. He’s really been good enough to merit a call for a year now – he’s never had a mis-step in development since coming over in the Josh Hader trade. The lefty built up 135 innings in AAA last year. The Brewers have been slow on him because while he gets more than his fair share of K, it’s not based on swing-and-miss stuff. While his slider and cutter are excellent, his fastball is below average, and savvy hitters will sit and wait for him to miss a location with it. I’m just saying this to temper expectations when he does get the call – he’s closer to a back-end guy than mid-rotation. With his being 25 in late May and a bone spur in his elbow that will delay his start, I – and as a Brewers fan it hurts me to say – am out on him for the hobby.
Though he came up short of winning a rotation spot out of spring training, Mason Black is nearly ready for the back of the Giants’ rotation. His iffy command, lack of a plus pitch, and shallow repertoire limit his ceiling, but he’s a solid workhorse-type that tends to avoid hard contact. Black has a high floor, but it’s hard to justify his modest cost to acquire being higher than it is now.
After a brief stint in the Pirates organization, Jackson Wolf is back with the Padres where he made a brief debut last year. The lefty is still a starter for now, but he’s truly a bag of 50’s that gets by on deception. I think he’s a nice back-end piece to a MLB roster that can put together some quality innings, but he’s not a high-K asset and is more swingman than #5 SP.
Cade Povich has a starter’s repertoire, but has shown an inability to wield it effectively in the high minors. Still, he has so much experience that there’s almost a certainty he sees time in Baltimore this year. None of his pitches are plus but at his best he mixes them really well and puts up solid K numbers. Hopefully he channels the best of himself, because if not he will get hit real hard. That’s a back-end SP profile, and he’s priced as such for the hobby.
He doesn’t get much swing-and-miss at all and gives up a lot of hits because of it, but Michael McGreevy has plus command and does a good job with damage control. He’s also been a workhorse in the upper minors for two consecutive years now. It’s only a matter of time before he gets his shot in the back of the Cardinals’ rotation, but I don’t think he has much of a ceiling hobby-wise.
It’s really tough to recommend Rockies pitchers, but I don’t have to since Joe Rock was traded to the Rays this spring. He’s a great fit for the org. Rock posted a nice 30.5% whiff in AA last year, and as a 6`6” low arm-slot lefty with a nice slider, it’s something that should continue. He’s not the most consistent performer and likely won’t be, but with the way Rays use their multi-inning pitchers that’s less important. He definitely has a floor, and will definitely see time in the majors this year. There’s a chance he’s a rotation mainstay by next year, but it’s more likely he’s just a 5-and-dive or swingman, like many other Rays arms.
Drafted as a bat-first catcher, Adrian Del Castillo has made some pretty massive strides on the defensive side – he threw out a solid 27% of would-be base-stealers in AA & AAA last year and had generally improved blocking. His bat, well…it’s good enough to be a backup catcher. He has some pop in there, and there’s a solid approach as well. I think coming up to the majors with an injury to Moreno or Tucker Barnhart is certainly possible for 2024. There shouldn’t be much hobby interest here though.
Ryan Cusick is hanging around in the A’s high minors, and as a significant piece of the Matt Olson trade and a former first round pick, I think he likely gets a shot later this year. He doesn’t truly deserve it, but you’d be hard pressed to find pitchers that do in the A’s high minors. Cusick has a limited repertoire and poor control of it, but when he’s on his slider can be a plus offering. If he can limit hard contact just a little more there’s potential he’s a long-term #5/swingman for the A’s. Not really a name to consider for the hobby.
Chad Patrick, the Brewers return in that blockbuster Abraham Toro trade, is a candidate to fill a bullpen role at some time in 2024. At least that's how I see his future playing out. Patrick has clear swing-and-miss stuff but no control. Now 25, the Brewers pitching lab gets their hands on him where a streamlining of the repertoire may do wonders for his performance. Rose-colored glasses, right?
Tyler McDonough has milquetoasted his way to the highest level of the minors, where he’ll look to continue to show an above-average base stealing acumen and earn a bench role in Boston, perhaps later this year. He’s fringe-average or worse everywhere else. McDonough could have a 5-7 year career in the majors, but I don’t think he’ll ever see much playing time.
Prospects of Significance
At some point you just have to believe in the production, and I’m personally almost there with Brady House. He has a highly aggressive approach with a lot of swing and miss – he ran a combined K% over 25 with a sub 70% contact rate in High-A/AA last year to go with a sub-5 BB%. But it’s impossible to ignore the results, which were a .320/.364/.498 slash at those levels. I don’t think running the .442 BABIP he ran at AA is sustainable, but everything we’ve always heard about his power says this is a quality of contact we should expect. House hasn’t even gotten to a ton of HR power yet, but it’s very apparent it’s coming. Fully converted to 3B where he should be average or better, the Nationals are looking at a future cornerstone, as long as he trends positively with his contact rate and approach.
Where to start with Andrew Painter. Let’s start with with his content within this product. He has base cards, insert autos, and extremely rare Chrome autos – it was so interesting that I wrote about it as he was ramping up last year, potentially to break camp with the Phillies. Of course, that didn’t happen. His elbow started hurting and he opted to rest it. It wasn’t until late July that the ultimate decision to undergo Tommy John surgery was made. That puts his timetable back two full years from expectation – but everyone is still really high on him, and for good reason. In 2022 he blasted through the minors and was equally impressive at every stop. He showed excellent command of three pitches that grade as plus or better, and that’s if you consider his two different fastballs one pitch. He’s a player with clear ace upside, but we now have to wait to see if there’s a full recovery until 2025. He’s a fantastic hobby name and everyone knows it.
If there was no Andrew Painter-level of rarity, there would be major complaints about how scarce Anthony Solometo is in this product. He has no base cards – just an insert auto, a dual card with Henry Davis, and his Chrome autographs that are super tough to find, and expensive. It matters for the hobby because the player is really good. Solometo has always been well-liked by the hobby, as a highly projectable 6’5” lefty. But he turned that projection to performance in his age-20 season last year, reaching AA and putting up a really nice 111 inning workload. He gets it done on the mound with a deceptive low arm slot and excellent command. His fastball is generally only in the low-90’s but his slider and improving change-up pair very well off of it. Solometo may not have super high-K upside, but his future in the middle of a rotation is more of a certainty than most 21-year olds.
Fellow 2021 prep Chase Petty is the opposite of Solometo. He has a double-plus slider, and an emergent fastball that was into the high-90’s this spring training. Petty’s command hasn’t always been great but after a late start due to an elbow issue last year, he posted an excellent 5.5 BB% across two levels with a sub-2.00 ERA. If those Spring 2024 gains in velo mesh with the 2023 command gains, watch out – he could be a name the Reds consider calling up by midseason. There’s an immense hobby ceiling here, but it’s a bit novel and the hobby has definitely not caught up yet. He’s an easy buy – just caution that he carries quite a bit of risk due to injury, ballpark, track record, etc.
It’s a shame that Edwin Arroyo will miss the season. It’s a shoulder labrum injury so I don’t want to write it off entirely, but with a full recovery Arroyo will still just be 21 and be headed to AA. The injury just erases all the good vibes he gained from reaching that level as a teenager, but he’ll still be young for the level in a year. Arroyo is somewhat similar to Carson Williams in that he regularly hits the ball with significant impact, but his raw power is a hair less. He makes up for that with his hit tool being overall a hair batter, and having better speed. With this shoulder injury and as a player who may have ended up a 2B anyway, I think it’s just more of a certainty now. But we have a year to wait now. Wait for the dip later in the season – Arroyo is likely to be worth it in the long run.
Again I’ll say – I hate shoulder impingements. Marcelo Mayer dealt with that injury in his left shoulder for almost the entirety of his stint in AA in 2023 and was shut down early because of it, so I’m throwing those numbers away entirely. All the same, there haven’t been any massive leaps in Mayer’s status as a prospect since he was drafted 4th overall. He’s been a solid defender at SS (though there’s questions about his range), and he’s been consistent enough with his bat to say he’ll be at least average in both hit and power. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with thinking he’ll be an above-average MLB starter at peak. But I don’t think there’s a blow-the-doors-off type ceiling with Mayer, and his floor isn’t quite as established as I’d like to take a shot at him.
Know who in the hobby likes Harry Ford? Everybody. And why not – he’s a catching unicorn if he sticks there, and Mariners seem intent on doing so. His plus speed is the separator from other catchers, and would certainly translate to other positions if it comes to it. His hit has also been exceptional. It’s more of an excellent approach than contact skills that led to an OBP over .400 each of the last two years, though there was an improvement in contact rate as he advanced to High-A for 2023 – a great sign. His power isn’t exceptional, but again those numbers improved at a higher level in 2023. But it’s that slow-marinating defense that’s held him back to a single level each of the last two years. That should continue this year. There’s been nothing but a gradual, steady increase in hobby interest for Ford, and that should continue.
Bubba Chandler is a still bit raw after just becoming a full-time pitcher in 2022, but there’s a lot to like. Armed with three potential plus pitches, he hit a full workload of over 100 innings in 2023. He showed massive improvement as the year wore on – from July 1 forward he allowed a just .190 batting average and most impressively he dropped his walk rate to 7%, from the 12.5% it was in the first half. He did it by actually pitching and not trying to just strike everybody out, though he still had over a K per inning in the second half. Chandler has a very big up arrow at present – his realistic ceiling is still being established, but it’s high. His cards are priced as such and might even be a touch high, considering there’s quite a bit of development remaining.
With so much pitching depth in the Tigers’ system I’m not sure he debuts this year, but Ty Madden emerged from mediocrity in 2023. In AA, after July 1 he allowed just a .199 batting average and struck out an outstanding 32.5% of batters in 62 innings, cementing himself as a surefire future starter in Detroit. His command could use a hair of improvement and he doesn’t have any plus pitches, but he may very well have 5 pitches that grade as average or better. He’s shown enough to say that it’s not just mid-rotation upside – that’s the expectation. A base-only subject in this release, his parallels are priced appropriately, but if you believe his ceiling is that of a high-K asset, his refractors and base chrome cost almost nothing and are undervalued.
Other Prospects
Lonnie White Jr. definitely has the opportunity to jump up into the next tier this year. He’s one of the best athletes in the minors, period. Despite dealing with numerous injuries that have kept him off the field for extended periods (including in 2023), he’s shown loud tools. He’s very raw yet and swings and misses a ton, but oh boy is there ever impact when he makes contact. A whopping 47% of his hits in Low-A last year were of the extra base variety, and a 16 BB% ameliorated the swing-and-miss issues. He also has near-elite speed, which translates to both his defense in CF and on the basepaths (though he was conservative with the SB attempts). He doesn’t need to improve a ton to make it – maybe an increase in contact rate to the low 70’s? The rest of his toolset is just very strong, and it played successfully in Low-A – it was a 140 wRC+. He’s very much a worthwhile hobby name, and should escape sleeper status rather quickly granted health.
I’ve always loved Daylen Lile’s hit tool. I got in on him early only to see him have TJ before the 2022 season and miss it entirely. He had an excellent rebound in 2023, but much of it was at Low-A where he was quite unchallenged (.291/.381/.510). What I loved the most was that in his smaller High-A sample where he had struggles initially, there was a definite recovery. Over the last 5 weeks of the season he had a .275/.363/.413 mark – a good sign that he won’t be there long to start this year. Lile doesn’t have great power or base-stealing ability, but both should be double digits if he pans out. It’s only been one season, as compared to two for most of his peers, but I’m just as high on him now as I was at release. A base-only subject in this set, his parallels are an easy buy for me at present.
Carter Jensen was a 3rd round prep catcher who’s developed enough defensive chops to project as MLB quality at this point. He also has a significant amount of pop in his bat, as evidenced by his 42 XBH%. While he doesn’t swing and miss much at all, he is very passive at the plate which leads to a higher K% and lower quality of contact than you’d expect. Seeing what the flip of that passivity looks like makes Jensen intriguing to me for the hobby, though being a surefire catcher takes away a touch of it. His buy-in right now is more than nothing, so I am taking a risk in suggesting that he’s one who’s undervalued.
I think Brock Selvidge is trending upwards from a back-end SP projection, but he still has quite a way to go. The 6’3” lefty added a cutter that became his go-to putaway offering in 2023, and he was generally consistent with his command. The bigger issue is with his ceiling – his fastball is into the mid-90’s but doesn’t have great shape, and his slider needs more consistency. It’s possible when all is said and done he ends up with three above average pitches, but he’s still a year-plus from that being a truth. He’s a base-only subject in this release, which as a pitcher who’s not close to a finished product, is a tough nut to crack for consistent hobby interest.
Though he was a hair old for the level, Logan Henderson put himself on the prospect map with an impressive performance at Low-A, highlighted by a 35.2 K% and .183 BAA. Unfortunately the beginning of his 2024 season will be delayed due to an oblique injury, so he won’t be able force his way through High-A to significant innings at AA. Henderson has an outstanding change-up and a fastball with great shape that play off of each other very well. Whether a third pitch develops will determine whether he’s a reliever or starter, but for now it’s all up arrows. Just not much further for the first part of the season.
They were pretty good in their return from TJ, but there’s still a bit of a road ahead for Spencer Schwellenbach (24 in May) and Brendan Beck (already 25). The gloves should be mostly off after a successful return to High-A, and the stuff that made them 2nd Round picks is clearly still there. It’s a prove-it year – if they do, there’s a chance they’re rotation options entering next year. There’s still a somewhat strong market for Schwellenbach’s cards, which is appropriate. Beck is dirt cheap but a bit older, though he’s also in a strong market. If you believe in the rebound – he’s a solid buy.
Chad Dallas essentially has one pitch that’s better than average – his plus slider. He throws it often and at any count, and he mixes well to induce weak contact. He showed a nice uptick in command in 2023 and there’s enough in his repertoire erstwhile to have a back-end starter projection for now. But hobby-wise there’s not really high-K upside, so I’m out.
Though he’s a reliever (and probably will stay there), Tyler Mattison had an awfully impressive 2023. In High-A/AA he combined for a nasty 38 K%, and at the higher level he allowed just a .169 batting average. He comes with the control issues you expect in a reliever, but there’s little doubt his ceiling is that of a closer now. There’s a chance he’s gains some hobby following, should what he did continue.
Eric Cerantola has trended well since being drafted, but he’s still just a multi-inning reliever. He performed quite well last year and touched AA – his command ticked up enough to let his slider and fastball be effective to the tune of a .199 BAA. There’s still a lot of control issues that make him firmly a reliever though. He’s not a strong hobby name and probably won't debut this year to boot.
Cameron Cauley’s speed is game changing on both the offensive and defensive side of his game. He also showed improved accuracy and strength with his arm – there’s a real hope he could stick at SS now. He just needs to improve the offensive side of his game, but it wasn’t all struggle there either. He managed a .330-ish OBP and .165-ish ISO in both Low and High-A, something nice to build on. It came with just a 65% contact rate and a K% over 30. He hits the ball in the air an awful lot for a player with his speed – I wonder if changing his swing path a little would kill two birds with one stone. Anyhow, that’s not something for me to project, so for now I’ll put Cauley down as a toolsy young guy with some intrigue. He’s a cheap base-only flier for now, but I’m not super eager to jump in.
The latest two things that happened for Noah Miller were definite positives to add to an otherwise underwhelming hobby profile. He won the minor league Gold Glove at SS, and he was traded to a much better card market in the Dodgers. I don’t know that his glove is truly an elite asset, but it’ll certainly be the tool that carries him. Miller makes a good amount of contact at the plate and has a decent approach, but his impact is quite limited. He really needs to get stronger. If that happens, then we’re talking about a defense-first utility option at least. I’m not personally projecting that right now, but let’s see what he does in his first year with the Dodgers. A base-only subject, he’s an easy avoid to me.
I know, I know. When you think of Benny Montgomery all you think about is the disappointment based on what we saw in 2022. But it wasn’t all bad. He was in High-A all year at age 20, ran a sub 30 K%, and showed some maturation as a hitter. There was just a LOT less power – not everyone who’s 6’4” has great pop. In that aspect I think the mirage is in the 2022 numbers. As it was at draft time, it remains the case that while Benny has great speed, it doesn’t translate perfectly to the bases or in the field. He’ll have to work hard to remain a viable CF as he moves up the ladder, which I think he will do as he heads into 2024. I think all Montgomery needs to do to make it to Denver is continue to trend positively with his hit tool. If that happens there’s just enough game speed and just enough pop to make it as a regular there. There is still some residual pricing from 2022 and a lot of development left in a bad system for development, so I’m out on Montgomery personally.
There’s a lot of aggression and swing-and-miss in Ethan Wilson’s game, which is what’s holding him back from projection as a MLB regular. There’s a bit of pop (he hit 17 HR last year in AA), he’s a solid corner OF defender, and even has enough speed to steal 10-15 bases per year. But without any loud tools he needs to do better than a .307 OBP. It’s a major sticking point. There’s good odds he gets to the majors eventually, but he may never see more than 150 PA’s in a season if his trends continue.
All I wanted to see from Izaac Pacheco in 2023 was slow growth. He was always going to be a slow burn of a prospect. But we didn’t get it – he hit too many fly balls and generally had a lower quality of contact in first full year of High-A, not to mention the expected spike in K%. I think there’s a good chance he was pressing too much. He did improve a bit as the year went on, and did show glimpses of the power promise, but if I’m the Tigers I would send him back to High-A to start 2024. He’s not a faller, but I’m not buying either.
Mitch Bratt was 5th-round prep lefty dart throw, and was down with a lat strain for a chunk of the 2023 season, but he finished healthy and pitching in the AFL. He’s also still very young – he doesn’t turn 21 until July and was already at High-A. The organization still has a strong belief in him. Bratt doesn’t have elite stuff but has good movement on his 92-94 MPH fastball and a developing sweeper. He also has taken a nice step forward in command. His performance has been pretty good so far – I just want to see him take a bigger workload before I say he’s a potential MLB rotation arm. Hobby-wise he costs almost nothing, so he might be worth a shot.
Similarly, former 4th rounder Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz was always going to be a project, but one that’s gone well so far. A rail-thin 6`3”, working up to a significant amount of innings is now his biggest task, and he did add some muscle, and velocity to his fastball this offseason – he’s into the mid-90’s now. What he was really good at last year was limiting hard contact, and with this velo uptick, that could mean more swing-and-miss. Also only 20 for a significant portion of this season and also very affordable, (base-only, so his parallels are worth a shot).
Ben Kudrna is taking the slow boat to hobby relevance. The Royals have taken it very slow with him, starting with an innings buildup and being coached to pound the zone with his fastball to complement his potential plus change-up. An increase in strength and physicality, and learning to pitch with it in this way, should eventually lead to more effectiveness naturally. Why am I saying this with a little confidence despite his poor performance? Well, it’s because I know he throttled back his fastball when he came into the system – he can get to 96-97 with effort if he wants, but that’s not the plan until it comes more naturally. As fickle as the hobby is and as far as he has to go and adding the fact that he’s a base-only subject – it’s fair to be out on him in this product. But Kudrna is definitely still quite projectable.
I’m not so high on Frank Mozzicato. He’s not as physically projectable as Kudrna, and doesn’t have a strong velocity with his fastball to begin with. Sure, his curve is a clear plus offering but that’s not a pitch that’s able to be thrown enough to command respect. None of his other pitches are really close to average. Most importantly, his command has been very bad. Getting a good amount of swing-and-miss doesn’t matter when nothing is near the strike zone. What Mozzicato has working for him is that he’s still just 20 until June – there’s plenty of time for him to prove this write-up wrong.
Prep pitchers are tough, and I’m glad to see Topps ratchet back on the inclusion of them recently. These guys, like Ben Kudrna, are taking a bit longer to develop…Maddux Bruns is a lefty flamethrower with two potential plus breakers, but he has a long way to go with pitchability. I can’t imagine the Dodgers are considering a move to the bullpen just yet, but he’d be a dangerous weapon there…Michael Morales is still developing his repertoire, but has an emergent slider and performed better in his return to Low-A last year…Peter Heubeck flashes easy plus stuff but has been inconsistent and got completely destroyed in his High-A stint...Similarly, Owen Kellington has significant swing-and-miss stuff led by a potential plus curve, but he also has shown little control from start to start…Eric Silva didn’t miss enough bats last year in High-A and doesn’t have great stuff. His command will need to ratchet up a few notches to make it.
At release I thought Ryan Spikes had some mighty mite dynamism to his game and had a chance to really hit with some significant impact to go with his clearly solid speed. While he has hit for some impact, the overriding factor for two years running now has been lack of contact. A player of his ilk needs to run at least a 70% contact rate, and he’s been well below that. Spikes went to Australia this winter where it was just more of the same – nice impact, high K%. Still there’s those underlying tools…maybe the Rays make him fail upwards in High-A this year? He has the defensive versatility to make it work, but where he plays won’t matter if he can’t make more consistent contact.
At release Jay Allen II was a really intriguing prep bat the Reds took 30th overall. Now, in 2024, he remains just that box of intrigue because he has missed so much time due to injury. He never really got on track at all in 2023, but the Reds did have him at High-A. We’ve never seen the best of Allen, but I think he’s something that approximates a 4-tool player, with hit lagging. I want to see a return to health this year before I consider getting back into him for the hobby.
Cooper Kinney’s position is “hitter”. With that as one limitation, he’s also a year behind because of a shoulder injury that cost him his 2022 season. Playing at Low-A for the entire year, he showed some of the promise that had him drafted 34th overall, but nothing he did was outstanding. I think he has enough hit and power to continue to have success at High-A this year, but he really needs to pop a carrying tool without any speed or defensive value. That’s also suppressing his promotions – I’d expect him to remain at High-A unless he really impresses in 2024.
Another Cooper with defensive limitations, Cooper Bowman got traded to the A’s and disappeared into the MiLB tableau. I like Bowman better overall – he has a good shot to be an average defender at 2B, and proved that he can handle AA. He also has plus speed and the ability to steal bases you’d expect. It’s the hit tool you need to buy into having continued success, and his mature approach leads me to believe it could play as an average asset. He does not have significant power. Could the A’s give him a shot this year? I’m not so sure as long as Zach Gelof is healthy – Bowman might end up just being a sometime-in-2025 bench option. Not a strong hobby name to consider for me.
Even going back to his days at UCLA JT Schwartz has been a power-vacant 1B. But his hit tool might be special, and it needs to be to make it as a MLB regular. He missed a good chunk of the 2023 season but he put up a near-elite 82% contact rate in AA with a mature approach that yielded a .383 OBP. Schwartz doesn’t have any wow factor in his game whatsoever, but don’t be surprised if he makes it as a second-division regular in a few years.
Cal Conley has some marks of a MLB utility bat. He can play up the middle, has enough speed to be a threat on the basepaths, and showed he can make enough contact in AA. Now, the contact needs to have improved quality to make it – he’s shown it in the past, but it was way down in AA last year. The Braves have other options up the middle so I don’t think Conley gets the 40-man spot this year with as much he has left to prove. But if he flashes pop quickly, there’s a chance. Even with those quality of contact improvements I don’t think Conley is an MLB regular, but could have a long career regardless.
I don’t know what to make of Aaron Zavala’s abysmal 2023 performance. He missed the first 1.5 months of the AA season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but that’s not typically an injury that affects hitters on the offensive side. Perhaps it was a conditioning issue? I don’t know how else to explain a K% that nearly doubled from his performance at the same level the previous year. I want to give him another chance this year, but I’ll be quick to get out if he looks bad again. That hit tool was supposed to be the one that carried him to the majors, and if this is what it truly looks like, it definitely won’t.
Jake Fox lacks significant power and doesn’t have a strong defensive home, but he does fill an archetype for me personally – overcoming passivity. Fox walked a ridiculous 15.7% of the time in 2022, so the question was “OK, what does he look like if he’s a little more aggressive?” Now we know in his case. Moving up a level to High-A and giving a cushion for developing his new approach, from July 1 on Fox slashed .288/.355/.443, good for a 125 wRC+. In truth it was just modest power gains and a maintaining of his contact rate, but it goes a long way towards saying he matured as a hitter. I think Fox now slots into (what seems like dozens of other) Guardians prospects who are like him. He separates himself on the positive side with his good speed, and on the negative side by poor defense. Certainly not a future star, and just an outside shot at being a regular. A fun case study, but I’m out on him for the hobby.
Joe Mack played catcher at High-A his entire age-20 season, and was tested often – there were 169 SB attempts on him, and he threw out a solid 26% of them! He’s a solid defender all-around and has above-average projection there, but there’s a bit of development left and his below-average bat should hold him at High-A again to begin 2024. Mack does have raw power but he’s pretty far from showing it in games. It’s fine for now – he’s not completely over-matched, but there will eventually need to be more impact. How much more he gets to will determine whether he ends up as a backup or potential starter by the end of 2026 – that is to say, he’s still quite a ways away.
After accruing 700 PA’s at High-A and finally earning that AA bump in September, it was important for Mat Nelson to keep doing what got him there. And he did, slugging 3 HR in his 12 games. That will ameliorate the fact that he’s a bat-first catcher who’s very reliant on power and approach, because he will run a sub-70% contact rate. I think he has the ceiling of a backup catcher, but squarely not a hobby name to consider.
Alex Binelas is at a bit of a crossroads as a positionally limited, no speed bat. He’s shown an ability to get to above-average power in the high minors, but it comes with quite a high K%. He needs to improve that mark or improve his plate approach to make it to the majors. It feels like he’ll eventually get there, but not this year and it’s questionable if it will be in a significant role.
There’s a bit of swiss army knife potential in Max Ferguson, and some very nice speed, but he needs to hit a bit more. Now entering his age-24 season without much experience in the high minors, it’s fair to be completely off him for the hobby. But be on the lookout – if he increases his contact rate by ~5% in AA he’ll be on the radar as a MLB bench/util.
I know T.J. White and Jordan Viars were somewhat popular sleepers at release and are still only heading into their age-20 seasons, but 2023 was rough. Challenged with an assignment to High-A, it’s clear White was not up to the task. It’s not just the abysmal 56 wRC+. Every aspect of his game stepped backwards, including his defense. He looks like a below-average 1B now. Viars was only at Low-A all year and was also pretty bad – he showed very little quality of contact, and hasn’t run a positive wRC+ in either of his pro seasons. Hopefully they can rebound to show some of the power promise they had at draft time. We’re looking at an early bust if not.
I’m not sure what’s happened to Ky Bush. In 2022 he showed real promise of making it to the back end of Angels rotation by late 2023, but he took a major step back instead. His fastball has never been a great pitch (hence the back-end thing), but it was surprisingly his previously above-average command that backed way up to below average. That made it way easier to just hammer that fastball, regardless of what his above-average slider/curve combo were doing. In total he allowed a whopping .527 SLG in 2023. That’s something that’s hard to come back from, and now with the White Sox I would not make a bet that he does.
Relievers: Jaden Hill looked fantastic this spring working in a relief role with the Rockies, which seems to be a likely outcome considering his workload limitations, explosive stuff, and lack of command. He just doesn’t have experience in that role to date…6’7” lefty Russell Smith is really tricky to hit off of – he just needs to refine his command more to make it as a middle reliever…A 3rd Round senior sign, Kevin Kopps is already 27 and waiting in the wings for a chance to crack the Padres bullpen. He just needs to be better in AAA to prove it to them…Former Vandy closer Luke Murphy has been racking up K’s in AA for 2 years now but was more hittable in 2023 – not a great sign.
Injured Pitchers: Sean Burke was at AAA bust struggled there. He’s healthy entering 2024 and looks the part of a back-end SP… McCade Brown missed 2023 recovering from TJ surgery, and will enter the year as a 24 YO with no experience above Low-A…Will Bednar only saw a few innings (at the Complex) last year and continues to deal with back issues…Drew Gray was 3rd Round prep lefty who returned from TJ to pitch 34 innings, but is quite far away… Micah Ottenbreit, who was a prep righty, made a brief cameo in his TJ recovery at the Complex in 2023, but has very few innings under his belt as a pro.
Hitter quick hits: I’m not counting out Reed Trimble yet, but there’s no positive news with him from the past year – a combination of injury and performance…There’s nothing to get excited about in Cody Morissette’s profile defensively, and he hasn’t run a positive wRC+ in either of his seasons, though he was at AA…For a 24 YO at High-A, I expected a better contact rate in 2023 from Ruben Ibarra, though he did hit 18 HR’s…John Rhodes played at AA last year and has above average power, but no other average tools. Baltimore is a rough system to be in with that as your skill set...Jose Torres and Donta’ Williams were outmatched at their age-appropriate AA last year – a downward trend for fringy prospects…As an older prep who struggled in High-A in 2023, Wes Kath is a fading asset. I can’t find an alternative to that truth – the 43 K% is tough to come back from…Likewise for Jordan McCants, who looked like a speed-only 2B/3B in Low-A…Ian Moller is a defense first catcher who really struggled on the offensive side at Low-A, but he was only 20 in 2023… As a senior sign who only has 64 PA’s at AA, Tanner Allen has been fine but squarely off the hobby radar.
Pitcher quick hits: Gunnar Hoglund, in his first full year back from TJ, looked like a shadow of the player that had him drafted 19th overall, in every aspect…Though he’s still only 20 until July, Jacob Steinmetz did not miss enough bats and got hit hard in Low-A last year…Now 24, Ryan Webb hasn’t stayed healthy for long enough to be promoted to the high minors, but has been generally good against the younger competition…For a prep who was nearly 20 at Draft-time Shane Panzini has been very slow to develop, and his command is poor…Ben Casparius and Doug Nikhazy are high-K% arms that just don’t have the command to be starters but haven’t been moved to relief roles, yet…College draftees Steve Hajjar, Dustin Saenz, Tommy Mace, Zane Mills, and Matt Mikulski don’t have the excuse of significant injury to explain their underwhelming performance, and it’s fair to think they lack projection as starters…Landon Marceaux was in this boat before the Mets announced he was out for all of 2024.
Summary
This is a nice release with a lot of potential remaining, but it has it’s caveats. Nobody here is a surefire hobby superstar. Hell, nobody here is a surefire perennial All-Star. One also has to consider that over half of the Bowman 1st’s are also pitchers — a normal feature, not a bug, of Bowman Draft. 2021 as year on the whole was not a great one for Bowman as we look back on it, but it was better than 2020 and it got better in 2022. Topps continues to improve it’s subject choices.