For those who don’t know me well, I maintain a spreadsheet of prospects who don’t yet have a Chrome autograph in Bowman products. It uses largely the same formula as Hobby+, and it’s updated regularly throughout the season. (The difference is that I liberally adjust players manually). Early in the season – especially after May’s Bowman release and a lot of players have been culled from the list – there’s not a lot to take away from it. It just sort of keeps tabs on who’s doing well, who’s doing poorly, and how pop-up prospects are rising in what I perceive to be the Hobby landscape.
Well, we’re now getting to the point where there’s some very interesting names starting to pop-up, and I’d like to delay my Hobby+ update – as most Complex players are still under my AB threshold – to take a look at them!
Because this is fun, I’ll add the odds that each of the prospects I mention are in 2025 Bowman Chrome.
Obvious Prospects
Rainiel Rodriguez, C STL (Single-A)
Let’s start at the top – it’s worth mentioning Rainiel Rodriguez. Sure, Alex Jensen had him as his top DSL performer last year. Sure, he was also very high on my list before this year began. But with his performance in the Complex, and subsequent promotion to Low-A, he’s put miles between him and the next-most-desired name for the hobby (pre-MLB Draft) – even as a catcher. As he was a $300k signee and has been a loud performer for the entirety of his pro career, he’s definitely on Topps’ radar and will be sure to headline whenever they include him. For that reason I’m not positive he’s in Bowman Chrome, but it’s a strong possibility. Odds: 80%
Tommy White, 3B SAC (High-A)
Tommy White has gotten off to a fantastic start at High-A, though not exactly how the Tommy Tanks moniker would dictate he perform. Instead, he’s posting a K% that’s hovering around just 10% – something he never achieved in college or projected to do after the A’s took him in the 2nd Round last year. There’s good batted ball results to go with it, and the power is starting to come around as expected as well. It’s a very limited defensive profile, but with this performance he’s already showing very little chance of going the way of Aaron Sabato. White has signed for every manufacturer except Topps – there’s no fear of exclusivity. So I’ll speculate that his lack of cards is more likely due to “Thomas White” being in 2025 Bowman, and being held out as a low-hanging fruit name after such a loud collegiate career. Odds: 90%
Andrew Salas, OF MIA (Single-A)
Andrew Salas has played all year at Low-A at age 17. The ceiling of his glove has flashed as expected, but it’s really hard for a prospect so young to impact the ball at this level – and he’s not. But the fact that he can still hit so far above his weight (and with a good OBP) is impressive nonetheless. Salas will almost surely be a headliner for Bowman Chrome as 2025’s 3rd-highest International Free Agent bonus signer. For their inclusion of IFA’s, Topps really does paint by numbers with the bonuses, and peppers in a few surprises and exclusions. But there’s nothing to indicate he’ll be an exclusion. This is the only J15 I’ll include here, because, well, all the others just started their seasons 2 weeks ago. Odds: 95%
Luke Dickerson, SS WSN (Single-A)
It’s not at all surprising that Luke Dickerson is showing himself to be worthy of being a 2nd Round pick – he was a late riser that pretty much everyone had some faith in having success in pro ball. But he’s now proving it – for an 18 year old to post a 40 XBH% with a high OBP is exceptional. With his well built body, it’s very easy to believe he’ll get to more over-the-fence power with maturity. He will absolutely not be cheap around release if he’s in BC. Just have some caution that his hit tool could easily slip to a more fringy projection, and he’s going to have to work hard to stick at SS. Odds: 80%
Wyatt Sanford, 2B/SS PIT (Single-A)
Wyatt Sanford, taken three picks after Dickerson, is sort of the opposite side of the same coin. He’s a very high ceiling defender, if not at SS then 2B. His speed is also a few notches better than Dickerson’s. Although he is running a sub-20 K% with a high OBP, it's a bit of a mirage. He’s no contact savant, and he’s been prone to chase in his small sample. It’s a very similar story to Dickerson with his hit tool. With Sanford it’s going to be about staying strong and making sure his contact is meaningful. I would expect him to be 20% cheaper than Dickerson at this juncture – if that number is off, I’d be interested in the cheaper option. Odds: 80%
Gage Jump, LHP SAC (Double-A)
Gage Jump has always been a well-known name, but he was coming back from TJ last year at LSU. While his performance was good, command inconsistencies had him allowing a few too many hard hit balls, but it was still enough to get him taken in the 2nd Round last year. Those inconsistencies look like a distant memory now. Since his mediocre first two starts, Jump has allowed 2 runs just once, spun a 0.91 ERA, struck out 33.4% of batters, walked just 4.6%, and averaged over 6 IP per start. In short, he looks like a steal in the second round, and is taking steps to realize what’s always been front-line SP potential. Jump hasn’t signed since 2020 – I’m not sure the reasoning, but that knocks down the odds that he signs for Bowman Chrome. Odds: 50%
Deeper Names
Owen Carey, OF ATL (Single-A)
When I saw a player at Low-A named Owen Carey smacking a bunch of doubles with a low K% and saw he was drafted in the 15th Round last year, I assumed he was a collegiate bat who was just performing well against younger competition. Of course, such is not the case – Carey is 18 years old, and his complete lack of pedigree is tied to the simple fact that he played his HS ball in New Hampshire. He has slowed down lately, but he’s certainly put more eyes on him now. He’s likely a corner OF in the future with his fringy speed, but there’s room for that aspect of his game to tick up. Being such a late pick and signing for just $150k, I have little confidence Topps includes him. Odds: 30%
Victor Figueroa, 1B SD (Single-A)
With as often as we've mentioned him at Prospects Live in the last few months, I simply can't eschew Victor Figueroa. He deserves all the caveats in the world, being an 18th Round, 21-year old positionally limited JuCo draftee who's best performance came at the Complex. But it's a very loud performance, and it's largely continued at Low-A (which he's still a bit old for). I'm just putting a pin in him – I would not chase him in BC for the price he'll surely demand. Same late-round caveat as Carey apply to his odds. Odds: 30%
Ching-Hsien Ko, OF LAD (Complex)
I hate that the Dodgers have Ching-Hsien Ko. It’s another high-ceiling bat added to their deep system last June for just $700k. The Taiwanese outfielder has a fantastic frame for power, and he’s currently tearing up Complex ball, having hit a whopping 15 XBH in 30 games, and a solid plate approach to boot. He has all the marks of a player who could be a fantastic hobby name, and since he’s with the Dodgers, I will have zero pieces since he’ll be so expensive. Odds: 65%
Jose Anderson, OF MIL (Single-A)
Let’s skip through a few Brewers. Jose Anderson is an 18 YO power bat who plays some CF now, but he’s really not a great athlete. After following up a great DSL season, he tore up the Complex with a .750 SLG for 10 games, prompting him to join his DSL-teammates Jesus Made and Luis Pena in Carolina. But compared to those two, it’s been a different story since he got there – nothing to affect his projections yet, but I would say his has always been a riskier profile. Odds: 55%
Marco Dinges, C MIL (Single-A)
Hobby-wise, Marco Dinges gets the full catcher tax. The Brewers are deploying him as a developmental project at the position after being taken in the 4th Round from Florida State last year. The results have been promising enough that there’s no reason he’ll be moving off of the position anytime soon. The “problem” is that his bat has looked fantastic thus far. And it’s not just for the power potential he showed at FSU either. That’s there in some capacity, but through both Low-A where he started and now High-A he’s hitting well over .300 with a K% under 20%. The contact rate isn’t exceptional though, and we’re talking about a player who already had success against top collegiate talent – this is great to see, but it shouldn’t be taken at full freight…yet. Odds: 70%
Handelfry Encarnacion, OF MIL (Complex)
One reason the Brewers had no issue moving up Jose Anderson is because they had an emergent Handelfry Encarnacion ready to take more playing time in CF at the Complex. He's really improved a lot in his batted ball results from last year in the DSL, while maintaining a low K%. He has a whopping 11 XBH through his first 20 games. Encarnacion was a $400k signer last year, and while we still don't have the Brewers' top 2024 IFA (Jorge Quintana) in Bowman, it's easy to say I'd rather see Handelfry. Odds: Encarnacion 55%, Quintana 65%
Bo Davidson, OF SF (High-A)
MLB put out an article this spring about Bo Davidson – I’m not sure how much of a sleeper he really still is. But he continues to perform very well, as he has at every stop after being signed as a UDFA in 2023. He’s been a bit old for every level but he’s starting to catch up. Seeing High-A for the first time this year as a prospect who turns 23 in July, thus far he’s slashed .308/.413/.515 with an above average contact rate. Though his above-average speed doesn’t lend itself to stealing bases, he’s a great fit as a leadoff CF-type. Projection-wise, he seems more like a 4th OF to me, but never count out the underdog to beat that. Odds: 45%
Dauri Fernandez, 2B/SS CLE (Complex)
Juneiker Caceres, OF CLE (Complex)
Dauri Fernandez and Juneiker Caceres are a pair of Guardians prospects at the Complex who have, thus far, spring-boarded from their solid DSL seasons to being even better this year. Both are sporting a .300/.400/.500 with a K% under 15%. Now they are both also undersized – Fernandez as a 5’9” infielder, and Caceres as a 5’10” RF-type. They’re not the most projectable for true over-the-fence power. But with a feel for the barrel as they have, and as young as they are, they will definitely be worth a shot if they’re in BC. Both of these guys were low six-figure signers last year. Odds: 55% (both)
Carlos Lagrange, RHP NYY (Double-A)
David Davalillo, RHP TEX (Double-A)
Carlos Lagrange anyone? He’s probably the biggest pitching riser out there for this subset, after showing some massive command improvements. His BB% had always been well into double digits. There was no reason to think he wasn’t some fringy 6’7” future reliever with a sick fastball / slider combo. But he’s ticked into single digits with his BB%, and with that his K% spiked to the high-30’s. He has scuffled in his two AA starts, but give it time – he could be a breakout. Since Lagrange isn’t very likely to be in BC, I’ll also give you David Davalillo. He’s performed well for longer, and his stuff and command – everything really – is congealing very nicely to a point where his K% is higher than ever and he’s leading High-A in BAA. Odds: Lagrange 20%, Davalillo 40%
Dylan Jasso, 1B/3B NYY (Double-A)
Lastly, let’s include a high-minors position player who’s really stepped up this year – Dylan Jasso. A native of Mexico, Jasso was signed as a UDFA in 2023 after attending a JuCo. Still just 22 and in AA for the first time now, he’s found a way to play to his strengths to find better batted ball results. See, despite looking like a decent athlete, Jasso is quite slow, and locked into 3B/1B defensively. Hitting the ball on the ground is not his friend. This year, he’s just gotten stronger and more aggressive with a swing that’s always yielded a low ground ball rate. The BB% now dances with a rate I don’t like much, but it’s hard to argue with a .277/.384/.441 with an improved HR rate. Odds: 45%
Conclusion
There's lots of new players on the radar worthy of discussion. That includes 2024 prep draftee standouts like Devin Fitz-Gerald, collegiate draftees like Payton Green and Joseph Sullivan, and players emerging from the Complex to full season ball like Maxton Martin, John Gil, and Enddy Azocar. This is just a taste! We'll be sure to have comprehensive breakdowns for all of them that are included in Bowman Chrome in our preview in August/September.
Check out some of our latest Hobby releases:
Joe Lowry
Max Arterburn
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