Games Logged Dates: 4/26/19, 7/7/19, 9/6/19
Teams: vs. Kane County (Class A MWL), MLB Futures Game, vs. Biloxi (Class AA Southern League Playoffs)
Minnesota Twins 5th Round Pick, 2016 Draft
Name: Jordan Balazovic, Mississauga, ON, Canada, 6-foot-5, 215 lbs, DOB: 9/17/1998
Game Notes: I checked in on three starts for Jordan Balazovic spread out over the course of his breakout 2019 season. Balazovic started his professional career off slowly, repeating the Gulf Coast League for both the 2016 and 2017 seasons.
Balazovic landed on my radar because he posted a 1.42 Strong Start Ratio over the course of the 2019 season, making him the best performing starting pitcher by that metric out of all pitchers in the minor leagues with 15 or more starts in 2019.
Since being drafted as a young Canadian prep right-hander, Balazovic has physically matured and filled out his frame. Reports are that he’s grown 1-2 inches and added around 40 solid pounds. He looks like someone that can rack up the innings at the big league level.
Pitch Mix: Fastball, Slider, Changeup
Pitch One: Fastball
Velo: 92-94, T96
Movement: Balazovic primarily throws a four-seam baseball with some good juice on it. In shorter stints he could sustain velocity around 95 mph. But at present he’s living between 92-94 once the adrenaline cools off and he’s settled into the game.
I was surprised to see that Fangraphs listed his fastball RPM at 2150. From my looks, it seemed to spin average or above based on usage and movement of the fastball. He primarily works with it up in the strike zone, daring hitters to catch up to it. It generated plenty of whiffs when used upstairs, and made several hitters look overmatched. Batters consistently swung under the ball against it.
When the fastball is at it’s best, the movement profile features carry and some armside run. It tends to run up and away from lefties and up and in on righties. There were times when he struggled to control the fastball however, sailing well above the zone and his intended target.
His fastball also has times when it looks too true, either from failing to generate enough spin or movement on the ball. The result is a flat fastball waist high or above. These fastballs tend to get turned around on pretty easily by more advanced hitters, and can be damaging shots.
In the MLB Futures Game he was confident in his fastball usage, and it showed. He mixed speed and location and kept some top level hitters off balance with it, generating weak contact from some top prospects.
There also may be room to add more velo as he matures, which is a scary thought as he touched at least 95 in each outing that I watched.
Pitch Grade: 55/60
Pitch Two: Slider
Velo: 83-85 mph
Movement: I would call this a hard curveball, but the broadcasts tended to describe it as a slider so that’s what I’m going with. Movement pattern on his slider was generally vertical, with some two-plane movement when Balazovic was feeling the pitch and spinning it well. In the early season start that I caught, his feel for the slider was very inconsistent. He hung a couple cookies, and one got driven hard but knocked down by a strong wind blowing in from left field, preventing a grand slam.
By the time of his stint in the Double-A playoffs in September, his slider appeared to be spinning tighter and Balazovic seemed to have better feel for the pitch. When he was able to generate swinging strikes on the slider, it appeared to be more from his deceptive angle and tunneling the breaker off his fastball than from generating plus movement on the pitch. It’s at its best when he starts it out lower in the zone and spikes it off the table, generating uncomfortable swings from a hitter looking for his fastball.
The slider just never looked like a true out pitch for him in these games.
Pitch Grade: 45/50
Pitch Three: Changeup
Velo: 87-89 mph
Movement: It’s a throw-in offering for him based on watching starts across 2019. He didn’t throw any changeups in his one-inning Futures Game stint. The changeup he throws is presently too firm to be effective, and you can tell he lacks confidence in the pitch as he rarely throws it. He was very effective against left-handed batters without it, mainly from his ability to generate swings and misses with his four-seam fastball up in the zone and his willingness to work the slider inside against lefties. He may not be able to get by without the changeup at higher levels though.
Pitch Grade: 40/45
Mechanics: Balazovic’s delivery starts tall, slow, and quiet. Following a deliberate break from his set, his arm quickly flashes whippy speed through his delivery. It’s a methodical delivery that he keeps very consistent in both the windup and the stretch.
I was surprised to see a disparity in his runners on/off splits from 2019 given the consistency of his mechanics (.690 OPS against with runners on, .463 with bases empty). It must be something other than his mechanics in the stretch driving the disparity.
From some side views during warm-ups, Balazovic has consistent footwork, regularly landing his lead foot in the same spot of his stride regardless of pitch. Core stays stable through his delivery, front leg blocks off well. Seems to engage glutes and lower body in delivery, but the Minnesota Twins pitching development focuses on driving through the heel to activate the glutes. As he reaches the upper levels and the development team gets more time with him, he might be able to add a tick or two to an already impressive fastball with extra focus on driving through the heel.
He works off the third base side of the rubber. Combined with his height, it makes for a tough angle for batters on both sides of the plate to pick up. He actually featured a reverse split last season, as LHB struggled a little more than RHB against him (.501 OPS vs .589 OPS).
Overview: The consistent, quiet delivery and frame lead me to believe he’s a dude that can string together some innings in a major league rotation in the future. This is confirmed by his top Strong Start Ratio performance across all minors in 2019. He was consistently the best starting pitcher you could find in the minors last year.
Right now Balazovic features a fastball dominant two-pitch mix. He will throw the slider in fastball counts or to start an at-bat. And he’s able to land the slider for strikes when his feel for the pitch is on. But it’s not an effective enough out-pitch to allow him to thrive as a two-pitch pitcher at the highest level. Something will have to click with the slider, or his changeup will need to come along, or possibly he will need to get into the lab and develop another offering. He did fool around with a slower looping curveball in the early season start. Without development of the pitch mix, there’s a chance he lands in the bullpen despite his starter’s frame.
Overall: 45/55
Future Role: #5 Starter on a contender/Above average setup man