Howdy, folks!

We're getting to a part of the season where we still have a long way to go, but I also feel a lot safer on the stability of my analysis.

What do I mean?

Well, we are past the "Kyren Paris is the next fantasy superstar" phase, and Tyler Soderstrom doesn't seem as much of a lock for 50+ HR now that his last bomb was mashed on April 17th.

Those were fun days, but also made hot takes a little tricky based on limited data and games to watch. We are now entering a world where we can start entertaining Maikel Garcia as a legitimate budding star, we can start questioning who Adley Rutschman really is...and we just might be able to see Ryan Weathers pitch in a MLB game again.

Maikel Garcia - Superstar Upside?

Maikel Garcia, 2B/3B (+OF in some formats), KC

I keep hearing about how Maikel Garcia "did this to us last year" as if he's some 31 year old on his last shot in the bigs, and there's just no way he could develop or improve at this point.

Let's get some facts straight.

For a start, the kid is still a kid - he just turned 25 years old. Secondly, it seems like the doubters are all having collective amnesia on what really happened in 2024.

You see, he actually had a cruddy April to the tune of a .280 OBP. What people are remembering is the opening week (yes, one week) where he crushed 3 home runs and it seems like he may have fixed his poor launch angle.

The reason people have such strong memories about that week is because Maikel Garcia absolutely hammers the ball (consistently averaging 90+ EVs) despite low home run totals to this point in his career.

GMs thought they had a fantasy superstar in the making, so it makes sense they are a little wary after being so severely disappointed.

If our expectations were kept in check, it actually wasn't a terrible year, especially if you played in Batting Average formats. He nearly grabbed 40 stolen bases, and showed an elite ability to not chase or whiff at pitches - his xBA was 30 points higher than his actual batting average!

In other words, it was a rotten-luck season for a 24 year old, and he still provided fantasy utility.

We're also forgetting that he showed a solid floor in his rookie season back in 2023, dropping a sturdy .272 BA along with a .323 OBP. Not flashy, but completely respectable from a 23 year old rookie.

But in 2025, it sure looks like the kid is putting it all together. Let's throw some stats your way courtesy of TJ Stats:

Maikel has always excelled at being a great bat-to-ball pure hitter, but his profile was limited by essentially refusing to take a walk. It's the plight of a talented young hitter who makes hard contact: it can feel like a loss to be patient and take your base.

However, Mr. Garcia appears to have taken that critical step forward so far in 2025. His walk rate is way up, he's still barely ever striking out, and this increased selectivity has allowed him to wait on better pitches to mash!

The result is an absurd .316/.386/.493 slash line, which is actually backed up by a .316 expected BA (as well as the stats in the graphic).

I still don't know if it's in Maikel Garcia's game to ever be a big-time home run bat, but I don't know if it really matters.

What he's doing right now is establishing a floor as an elite hitter who will steal 30+ bases every year. If he keeps hitting baseballs as often as he is, with the power that he has you’ve gotta think more are gonna find themselves in the stands.

If Maikel Garcia ever decides optimize his swing for power, it would be the key that unlocks the door to superstardom.

Oh, and in case you've missed me posting about it on X: Garcia comes from a rich baseball bloodline, featuring:

  • Ronald Acuna Jr.
  • Luisangel Acuna
  • Alcides Escobar
  • Kelvim Escobar (throwback!)

All in all, crazier things have happened than seeing Maikel mash 25 HR one day.