From prep shortstops to polished college arms, this draft class is loaded with intrigue. The first 43 picks promise drama, surprises, and a few bold swings.
The day has finally arrived. The MLB Draft kicks off tonight with the first 43 picks, and the anticipation has never been higher.
As fans, scouts, and front offices gear up for one of the most pivotal nights in amateur baseball, I’m excited to return from an extended bereavement leave with my final mock draft. It’s been a challenging few weeks personally, but I’m grateful to be back doing what I love—breaking down names, trends, and potential chaos atop the board.
Before diving into the picks, a quick personal update: after this draft, I’ll be stepping away from my role leading the Prospects Live draft team. That said, I fully intend to stay involved, with a continued emphasis on the prep circuit and rankings side of our coverage.
When evaluating this year’s draft class (especially during Night One), it becomes clear that prep shortstops and college arms headline the talent pool. There’s real depth at both positions, and you can expect to hear many of those names early. On the flip side, the college hitting crop is lighter than usual, and those bats will likely start coming off the board in the teens and beyond.
In my view, Seth Hernandez and Eli Willits stand out as the two players with the highest ceilings in the class. Both possess the kind of tools and projection that could make them true difference-makers at the next level. That said, there’s a strong group of high-floor talents who could move quickly through pro ball and make meaningful contributions in the near future—Kade Anderson, Jamie Arnold, Devin Taylor, Liam Doyle, and Marek Houston all fit that mold.
As always, money plays a critical role in how teams navigate the MLB Draft. With the bonus pool system in place, organizations often approach the top of the draft with a strategy that balances talent acquisition and financial flexibility. That can mean cutting an under-slot deal early (particularly in the top 10 picks), to save money for aggressive swings later on, often targeting high-upside prep talent or players with strong college commitments.
On the flip side, some clubs choose to go full slot or over-slot for elite, hard-to-sign players they view as cornerstone pieces. Expect to see a mix of both approaches throughout the first night, especially from teams with multiple early picks or larger pools to manipulate. So do not be surprised if a dude that was a top performer or had early chatter slides some as it really depends on org fit and money demands. The draft may be about talent first, but make no mistake, dollars and leverage shape the board as much as tools and track records.
However, as I bid this introduction adieu, below is my final mock draft of the 2025 season. I encourage all readers to get in on the action with the Mock Draft Simulator below and to follow along the Prospects Live Draft Stream during the first and second day of the draft Sunday and Monday.
Blurb: If you had asked me a week ago, I would've confidently said Mike Rizzo and company were locked in on Holliday with this pick. But the landscape has shifted dramatically.
With Rizzo reportedly on his way out after two decades leading the Nationals and manager Dave Martinez also shown the door, the message from ownership is clear: the rebuild needs to wrap up—fast. That sense of urgency leads me to believe they're pivoting to Kade Anderson. He profiles as a fast-moving arm who, if all goes well health-wise, could debut by summer 2027 and quickly become a durable fixture in their rotation.
Alternates to Consider: 3B Ethan Holliday, LHP Jamie Arnold, SS Eli Willits.
2. Los Angeles Angels: LHP Jamie Arnold
Photo via FSU Baseball
School: Florida State University
Pick Value: $10,252,700
B/T: L-L
Height: 6-1
Weight: 192
Draft Age: 21.3
Hometown: Tampa, Florida
Blurb: Same story as back in April—at this spot, I continue to expect the Angels to follow their usual blueprint and target a college player with fast track projectability.
With the Nationals opting for Kade Anderson, this feels like a "sprint to the podium" scenario for the Angels to land the polished lefty out of Florida State. Arnold offers the kind of pitchability and composure that could allow him to move quickly through a system, and there’s a real chance he could be the first player from this class to reach the majors, possibly by 2026.
That said, names like Liam Doyle, Kyson Witherspoon, and a few of the top college bats will still be in play, as the Angels weigh their best pool-value path at this pick.
Alternates to Consider: LHP Kade Anderson (If Available), LHP Liam Doyle, SS Aiva Arquette, RHP Kyson Witherspoon, C/OF Ike Irish, and RHP Seth Hernandez
3. Seattle Mariners: RHPSeth Hernandez
Photo via @seth_hernandez_22 on IG
School: Corona HS
Pick Value: $9,504,400
B/T: R-R
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200
Draft Age: 19.00
Hometown: Chino, California
Commitment: Vanderbilt
Blurb: Pick No. 3 is where things could really start to get interesting. The Mariners hold the largest bonus pool in the draft, giving them the flexibility to pursue just about anyone they want and get creative with their approach. They've done extensive homework across nearly every demographic, with a particular focus on college arms and prep middle infielders.
That said, I believe they’ll wait to target prep bats at picks 35, 57, or 91. How Seattle allocates its pool money will be one of the draft’s biggest storylines, especially within the top 10.
Same as back in April, one scenario I can envision involves leveraging that financial advantage to pull Jamie Arnold down the board, viewing him as a fast-moving rotation piece, particularly relevant given the trade speculation surrounding Luis Castillo and potential long-term extensions for Logan Gilbert and George Kirby (all hypothetical, of course).
However, if the Angels truly covet Arnold, that plan may never materialize. In the same boat, they could also underslot college arms like Witherspoon or Brenmer at this selection, too. Just like in April, I stick to my guns have the Mariners pivoting to the top prep arm in the class: Seth Hernandez. The upside is enormous, and Seattle could view him as a future ace to anchor their rotation down the road.
Alternates to Consider: LHP Kade Anderson (If Available), LHP Jamie Arnold (If Available), SS Aiva Arquette, RHP Kyson Witherspoon, LHP Liam Doyle, RHP Tyler Bremner.
4. Colorado Rockies:3B Ethan Holliday
Photo via @ethanhollidayy on IG
School: Stillwater HS
Pick Value: $8,770,900
B/T: L-R
Height: 6-4
Weight: 210
Draft Age: 18.04
Hometown: Stillwater, Oklahoma
Commitment: Oklahoma State University (OSU)
Blurb: The biggest speculation in this draft centers on one pivotal scenario: if Ethan Holliday falls to No. 4, the Rockies won’t blink. If he's available, it’s about as close to a lock as you'll find—he’s heading to Colorado. Right now, it feels like his destination comes down to either the Nationals or Rockies, unless Seattle is secretly lurking with interest.
Holliday offers the highest offensive upside in this class. At 6’4” and 210 pounds, the power is real and should translate seamlessly to pro ball. Pair that with a silky-smooth left-handed swing, advanced feel for the game, and a spring stat line that bordered on absurdity; batting over .600 with 16 home runs and a jaw-dropping 37-to-0 BB/K ratio, looking at one of the best high school bats we’ve seen since his brother, Jackson, not long ago.
Further, I’ll even double down here: no matter where Holliday lands (Washington, Colorado, or a wildcard team with deep pockets), he’ll land the largest bonus in the draft (which is par for the course when Scott Boras is involved). However, If the Rockies miss out on Holliday, expect them to pivot to a college player, with Aiva Arquette and Liam Doyle both firmly in play at this spot.
Alternates to Consider: SS Aiva Arquette, LHP Liam Doyle, LHP Jamie Arnold (If Available), RHP Seth Hernandez.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: SS Eli Willits
Photo via @eliwillits2 on IG
School: Fort Cobb-Broxton HS
Pick Value: $8,134,800
B/T: S-R
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175
Draft Age: 17.07
Hometown: Fort Cobb, Oklahoma
Commitment: Oklahoma
Blurb: The Cardinals at No. 5 remain one of the biggest wild cards in the top 10, thanks to the unpredictable trajectory of their 2025 season. Entering the year, most around the industry expected St. Louis to begin a soft rebuild, with Chaim Bloom, currently positioned as the "heir apparent" to succeed John Mozeliak—poised to take over as President of Baseball Operations in 2026 and begin shaping the club's long-term blueprint this winter. But a strong first half has flipped the narrative. With the Cardinals firmly in the playoff race, the rebuild may be on hold, and the short-term goal has shifted back to winning.
Bloom’s track record in Boston showed a strong preference for prep talent (particularly up-the-middle athletes), and it's fair to assume that philosophy could carry into his tenure in St. Louis. That said, the organization is already seeing its future arrive: JJ Wetherholt has been promoted to Triple-A, Mason Winn is in the big leagues, and players like Thomas Saggese, Nolan Gorman, and Jordan Walker are making their presence even though they have bounced back and forth from Memphis to St. Louis.
This in mind, it might push the front office to target a college bat or a fast-moving arm like Liam Doyle to keep the momentum going at the major league level.
However, I see this selection coming down to Aiva Arquette, Billy Carlson, or Eli Willits, all of whom rank as the best players available at this spot. If the Cardinals opt for Arquette, it would signal their intent to compete now, projecting a future infield core of Wetherholt, Winn, and Arquette on the left and middle of the dirt, with a window to contend through the remainder of the 2020s.
If not Arquette, Bloom could get his say and dip back into his usual bag of tricks, targeting upside and taking the prep shortstop in Willits or Carlson.
In this mock, I have them taking the long-term upside in Eli Willits with him still on the board. He offers a steady, up-the-middle profile with elite bat-to-ball skills, an increasingly valuable commodity in a class full of riskier bats (however, like mentioned prior wouldn't be surprised if they prefer Carlson and his athleticism instead).
Last to Note: I also wouldn’t discount the college arms at this pick, and this should be the floor for Jamie Arnold. If they target an arm like Bremner, Witherspoon, Doyle, or Wood with this selection; it's the regime going with an underslot strategy with preps in the next few rounds that they are really high on.
Alternates to Consider: SS Avia Arquette, RHP Tyler Bremner, LHP Liam Doyle (If Available), LHP Jamie Arnold (If Available), SS Billy Carlson.
Director of Dynasty Content - Canadian born and raised, moved to Arkansas with my wife and two sons Ezra and Ari. Followed and played baseball my whole life; played dynasty for 25+ years.
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
