We’re approaching the end of the regular season and playoff baseball is on the horizon. If you are good enough, but more likely lucky enough, to identify World Series heroes, then you can make some good profits on buying those cards now and selling into those hype trains. For the rest of us, we are going to be bargain shopping as the market starts to enter into the off-season. The majority of cards will be going down in price, so the sell side becomes much more difficult to achieve the price points you want. Still, there are a few sales I’ll be making, and a few buys that I am finally committing to for prospects I’ve had on my watch lists for a while now.
Market
The market is up over the last three months, which I was a bit surprised to see. Some of that is easily explainable because of Ohtani. There are a few other modern cards that are providing some upward momentum at the moment, especially Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge. In addition, there's a contextual line to draw that I touched on during my appearance on the Prospects Live Dynasty podcast last week - Football and Basketball are showing momentum, especially with recent Topps releases in those sports. A rising tide floats all boats, as they say, and I think that’s the other main driver beyond those high performing baseball players I mentioned above. Also, I’m purposely focusing on the 3 month trend as opposed to the 12 month trend because we are still negative year over year, but let’s just focus on positive thoughts! I think we should enjoy it while we can, because the off-season downturn is sure to be coming in the next month or two.
3M
12M
Buys
My buys are shifting more to List season and prospects that I expect to make noise in Spring Training, especially around debuting with the MLB team to start the 2025 season. But that’s also not stopping me from picking up some super cheap bargains as well. I will caution that while I am adding all these cards now for the purposes of the Hobby Portfolio, I would mostly recommend waiting until the November-December time frame to see if you can buy even lower than I am here. I won’t be writing this article during the off-season as there’s really not enough catalysts that happen to change card prices, so a lot of these buys are just to put these guys on your radar more than me buying at the lowest point possible.
Matt Shaw 2023 Bowman Draft Base Auto (raw)
I’ve been eyeing this card for months now, and I’ve basically missed out on buying at the lowest point. I’ve gone back and forth on whether to include him in the Hobby Portfolio at this point, because I think his cards have the potential to drift over the off-season back downwards depending on how the Cubs approach trades and free agency. There’s a logjam with the Cubs infield at the moment as a combination of Nico Hoerner, Isaac Paredes, and Dansby Swanson all block Shaw from playing either second base or third base for Chicago to kick off 2025. Putting that to the side, I think we can easily say Shaw has moved into the Cubs top prospect spot heading into the off-season as Cade Horton has been hurt most of the year and PCA has graduated. There are others that arguments can be made for (Rojas, Alcantara, Ballesteros, and Caissie) but given Shaw’s floor and proximity, I think the consensus will be that Shaw is the Cubs top guy and an overall top 50 prospect. That alone should be enough to keep Shaw’s cards from bottoming out too hard during the off-season doldrums. I’m not going to dig too deep into the data or the stats here since I’m already going long, but over his first full season they’re somewhere between good and great depending on what numbers you’re looking at and how you slice and dice it.
At this point, if you can pick up Shaw 2023 Bowman Draft Base Autos for $50 and under, I would dip my toes in those waters as I am going to do here. With a strong Spring Training or an imminent call-up early in the season, I think these have a shot to get up to $100. This same approach is what I took with Jacob Wilson a few months ago, and is a similar profile. Not one I would want to hold post-debut as the power at the MLB level is probably in the neighborhood of 20 home runs with a .280-ish batting average. I’ll grab one of the most recent sales at a tick over $46 for the Hobby Portfolio.
Ryan Clifford 2023 Bowman Baseball Base Auto (Raw)
As alluded to above, Clifford has long been on my watch list and a player I mentioned last month as someone I was watching but not yet buying. At this point, at around $10 for base 1st Bowman auto, it’s too tempting to ignore. Does Clifford have hit tool concerns? Yes. Does Clifford have massive power? Yes. At $10 for a base auto, should we bet on the power even if the hit tool isn’t ideal? Yes. Am I a yes man? Yes. There’s always a chance that Clifford doesn’t figure out the hit tool enough and he falls into the Quad-A bucket along the lines of Chris Shaw. On the other hand, Clifford can easily turn into a Mets version of Brett Rooker, and if he does, buying his base 1st Bowman auto for $10 is a steal.
This is less a bet on list season or making the Mets MLB roster out of Spring Training and more just making sure I lock in a low price point on what could be a player that absolutely should make noise in the first few months of the minor league season. In a very home run unfriendly Double-A home park in 2024, where Clifford has spent the majority of the season, he still hit 18 home runs. Triple-A Syracuse is much friendlier, and hopefully that leads to a barrage of home runs for Clifford in 2025.
One thing I should mention is that Clifford’s 1st Bowman cards are of him in an Astros uniform as Houston drafted him in 2022 and then traded him to the Mets for Justin Verlander. That puts a slight bit of cap on his 1st Bowman cards, especially once he starts getting rookie cards. Regardless, at $10 for 1st Bowman autos, which is roughly the price I’ll grab for the Portfolio in a recent sale ($10.50), it’s hard to get too hung up on that. Anything $20 and under is worth the gamble in my opinion. While I’ll be tempted to take profit when it shows up, I’d like to think we can see a $50 price point before mid-summer and cash in at that point.
Gino Groover 2024 Bowman Baseball Auto (Raw)
Just as I was writing up Groover for 2024 Bowman Baseball, he broke his forearm in a play at first base where the runner and his arm tried to be in the same space at the same time. Usually that works out poorly for the fielder, and it did in this case for Groover. I was still confident enough in his profile that I kept him as a Tier 2 bat because I see a plus hit tool in the future. The power may only end up being above average, but because of his feel for the zone and ability to put the bat on the ball, he should find 20 or more home runs as more of a regular scenario rather than the exception. In just over 60 games of minor league play this year, he’s already put it over the fence ten times, so he’s got the pop to go with that hit tool.
As I said in the 2024 Bowman Preview, I got big Justin Turner vibes as I was watching that minor league video back in April/May. No one wants Justin Turner cards, right? Well, yes, for the most part, that’s correct. On the other hand, Groover’s 1st Bowman autos are currently in the $5 - $15 range. If you can buy his 1st Bowman autos for under $10, I don’t care if he ends up churning out a Justin Turner-esque career (which would be a major win baseball-wise), there’s still plenty of upside to take advantage of at that price. In addition, Groover did not have base 1st Bowman cards. Not sure why Topps does that, because it’s dumb, but it’s something that we can take advantage of as supply is limited. At some point, demand could easily outstrip that supply. I’ll add the most recent sale at $8.50 to the Hobby Portfolio. With Groover expected to head to the Arizona Fall League because of how much time he missed with his broken arm, there’s also a shot that we see some short term upside to take advantage of. If he gets into the $20-$30 range because he balls out at the AFL, then I’ll gladly take some profit. If not, I expect him, like Clifford, to put up strong numbers to start the 2025 minor league season and target some profit at that point.
Sells
Jackson Jobe 2021 Bowman Draft Auto (raw)
As I said back in July when I added this card to the Hobby Portfolio, I would be looking to sell when this card got into the $100+ range. The most recent auction sale got us right there, and it’s time to take the over 70% profit of $42 above what we paid. While Jobe didn’t get the hoped-for 2024 debut, he looks to be heading into the off-season as the top pitching prospect in most people’s eyes, and one publication recently pushed him up their second overall prospect in all of baseball. That hype alone has fueled his cards and is a prime example of the List Season effect. He’s only had two games in Triple-A since being called up a few weeks back, and neither have been that impressive. There is definitely more upside here with Jobe’s cards - the List Season effect could continue to keep his cards in this range through the off-season doldrums, and the Spring Training hype could also drive more price increases as well. Pairing Jobe with Skubal for a young Tigers team which has suddenly become competitive going into the 2025 season will be a huge boost for Jobe’s cards until actual baseballs are thrown with intent in April. So why am I selling? Because his cards have hit my selling price target, and as I mentioned on the Prospects Live Dynasty Podcast last week when asked how do you know when to sell, it’s whenever I can take a profit. Especially in a market going into the off-season doldrums. Just like I sold Bryce Eldridge back in July - I saw more money in his cards, but I also want to lock in profits rather than be left holding the bag, especially when it comes to prospects. One night, they’re stars. The next morning, they’ve been gambling until 8 AM and get demoted. The most recent sale of this card pennies short of $100 is what I’ll claim for the Hobby Portfolio.
Travis Sykora 2024 Bowman Baseball Auto (raw)
Picked up just last month for $15, I’m already locking in profits as this card approaches the bottom end of my sell range ($30 - $50). The most recent sale at $27 is good enough for me to get out. In a real world scenario, I’d probably list it for $35 buy it now with offers on and take $30 for it. I’d also not mind holding through the off-season and into next year as well. I expect Sykora finds his way into the backend of Top 100 lists this off-season across the industry and that should be enough to keep his card prices in the healthy range. If he comes out and again starts dominating High-A like he did Single-A to start, these cards could easily get into that $50+ price range that I was expecting when picking up his cards. The Nationals High-A affiliate suppresses home runs as well, so there’s a strong case to be made for that early 2025 success for Sykora. However, as I said above, I’m all for locking in profits as we head to the off-season.
Hobby Portfolio
Some decent sales this month help drive the Hobby Portfolio profits back above 35% profit. Some pitcher injuries have hurt what I thought could be decent percentage winners by this time in the season (Horton and Hence), but surprisingly Basallo and Montes are probably the biggest dollar value drags at this point. Even if I exited all of my positions today, I’d still be on the positive side of the equation this year, in the neighborhood of 15% or so, which is definitely a win given I’m almost exclusively playing in the prospect space here. I mean, I’d have simply bought Ohtani cards until I’m blue in the face if it would provide fun, insightful content, but this isn’t the Ohtani Portfolio. For that, check out my twitter profile and scroll through the feed from the night he surpassed the 50/50 threshold to see a bunch of my favorite Ohtani cards that I currently own.
Final Thoughts
There were a lot of different prospect cards that I wanted to pull the trigger on one way or another, but I could easily find a reason not to. Some of that is simply seasonal, some of that is team and/or player context, some of that price point. For example, I love Josue De Paula’s hit and power combo, but his defense is so bad right now, he’s trending towards being a future designated hitter. That’s going to be a problem in L.A. because, well, you know, that position is going to be occupied for quite some time moving forward. I also would not be surprised if he’s used as trade bait this off-season for pitching, especially if Roki does not come over and join the Dodgers. On the other hand, with JDP’s base autos in the $50 range, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from taking some shots at that price point. He had a tough start to the season, but finished strong and has the big power potential we want in the hobby.
As I mentioned throughout, we are starting to approach the off-season dip for the majority of the baseball card market with few exceptions. If you’re still selling, and hopefully you're not banking on that, take whatever profits you can. If you’re buying, it’s best to hold off until November with December and January still providing decent possibilities of buying low. Last year, I continued the Portfolio into October, but I really didn’t find any compelling prospect cards to buy. There’s some argument around buying prospect hitters that could shine in the AFL, but that’s about it, and I pivoted towards picking up a couple of rookie cards in October last year - one a smart move (Casas) and one a poor move (Pasquantino). While that may have been an interesting scenario in my head, I don’t think it played out that well in reality. So I’ll wrap up the Portfolio here for 2024 and look ahead to 2025. The remaining cards in the Portfolio are now mostly focused on List Season and Spring Fever, but if anyone in the Portfolio is moved in off-season trades, it could be a big opportunity to sell and I’d be doing so. I’ll track all of that and I’ll see you in 2025.
Finally, I always sign off with the tagline below, and I think this month, more than any other time I’ve written it, you all probably understand and need no prompting as to why I say it. Always Buy Ohtani.
All index and card price data provided by https://cardladder.com/
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