Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
Hello and welcome to the Dynasty Baseball Pickups written series! Taylor and I are celebrating our 100th podcast episode this weekend, and I can’t tell you how excited and humbled we are to have reached this milestone. When we started, we had no affiliation with any site or platform; we were just a couple of guys who enjoyed discussing prospects and wanted to share our thoughts. Fast forward 100 episodes, and we’ve had the privilege to work with some of the brightest minds in the business at Prospects Live. We can’t thank them enough for believing in what we were doing and giving us an opportunity. I also want to thank Taylor for inviting me to join him two years ago and, of course, all of you, the readers and the listeners, because without you, we wouldn’t be here 100 episodes later. We certainly wouldn’t have as much fun or desire to continue digging through the mud to find prospects worth adding every week. We hope to continue bringing you a high-quality product every time we put figurative pen to paper and every time we put our voices out there on the airwaves, and that continues right now with another week of recommendations. This week, I’ve got a high-contact hitter knocking on the door to the bigs, an arm going under the radar after signing late in the 2024 IFA period, another arm whose career trajectory might have been completely changed by an offseason eye appointment, a catcher who deserves far more attention than he gets, and a bat who’s been raising his stock ever since being taken in last years draft. Now, let’s get into the names you need to know this week.
*Note: all stats current through Friday, June 27/25 and all minor league Statcast figures are sourced from TJ Stats unless otherwise stated.
After getting off to a slow April this year, Carter Jensen has turned it on since the start of May. He slashed .324/.388/.473 from May 1st to June 22nd (.347/.405/.507 from June 1st to 22nd) while hitting four home runs, stealing seven bases, and striking out less than 20% of the time over that nearly two-month span to earn himself a promotion to Triple-A. When the Royals Top 20 Prospects article came out in January, Grant Carver noted that Jensen’s patience, sometimes bordering on a passive approach, helped balance out some of the swing and miss in his game. While the approach has remained largely the same this season, Jensen has been making more consistent contact, as his in-zone contact rate increased from 76.9% in Double-A last year to 81.1% at the same level this year. Additionally, his out-of-zone contact rate has jumped nearly 5% to 59.6% in 2025. Grant also noted that Jensen possesses above-average power that could even reach plus territory, and given what Chris Clegg had to say about it recently, it might just be plus right now as his 90th percentile EV in Double-A was reportedly around 105 mph with a max around 115 mph at the level this year. He’s not a burner on the bases but will probably chip in a handful of steals, too, a nice bonus from your fantasy catcher.
Why To Think Twice
Jensen’s strong EVs haven’t translated into game power this year quite like in past years, as his ISO in 68 Double-A games was down to just .128 this season after posting a .247 ISO in 41 games at the same level last year. The culprit is likely a combination of an increase in ground balls (up to 36.9% GB% in Double-A this year compared to 26.9% at the level last year) and a decrease in pulled balls (down to 36.1% from 46.8%). While the GB% this year aligns better with his career norms and isn’t a concerning number, the pull rate is a career low in any sample of at least 20 games.
Final Thoughts
It’s no secret that Salvador Perez is on the back 9 of his career. While Freddy Fermin and fellow Triple-A backstop Luca Tresh are both under team control for several more years, they both project better as backup catchers, leaving an opportunity in the coming years for Jensen to seize. However, if he doesn’t take the job and run with it, this is one position the Royals have done a good job collecting talent at, so he could have some stiff competition in the next few years. I love Jensen’s bat, especially with the improvements he’s made this year, and I like his defense enough to believe he will lock down the job. He’s gotten off to a slow start in his first week in Triple-A, but with just four games under his belt, he’s had hardly enough time to get his feet wet, not to mention his bad luck on batted balls as his BABIP currently sits at .000 despite a hard hit rate over 50%. We’re going to start seeing some more batted-ball data now, which could help his stock take off. While I would typically separate my recommendation for catchers into one and two-catcher leagues, Jensen is of a high enough profile and now close enough to the bigs that I feel comfortable calling him an add in any league with 100+ prospects rostered and, at this point, he is a top 10 prospect behind the dish for me. Since he is a catcher, he is more available than you might think. At least, he is in my leagues, so make sure to check your free agent pool.
Where to pick up: Leagues with 100+ prospects rostered
FAAB bid: Minimal (0-5%)
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Your one stop shop for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball, MLB Draft, Baseball Card & MiLB Baseball content. Blending Data & Scouting into our Player Evaluation
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
As Director of Pro Scouting, I lead a talented group of evaluators as we break down future stars. You can find me at random California League games throughout the season!
Dynasty player of 10+ years. Helping you find the building blocks of your championship rosters as a co-host on the Dynasty Baseball Pickups podcast since mid-season 2023, joined Prospects Live at the start of 2024.
