Because the Philthy Projections are trying to boost hitters that hit the ball hard, hit a high percentage of line drives, and hit a lot of barrels, there are some interesting names outside of the typical draft pool that might help your team this season. These are usually guys who have good skills, but are waiting on playing time opportunity. With the 2020 season being an unpredictable mess, these are players that might just be waiting on a teammate’s positive COVID-19 test or opt-out decision for a chance at fantasy relevance.
These are players that should be available in the late rounds of snake drafts and/or for $1 in your auctions. In leagues with 15 teams or less, these are players that are possibly available out there on the waiver wire. I’ll include some tidbits on each guy and then hit you with the full table.
The NFBC ADP comes from all publicly available ADP from drafts in July of 2020.
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo - 3B/OF - Rays
The Rays lineup is tough to project because they have a roster full of guys that could contribute value. The result is likely to be timeshares at various positions. This seems especially true at the corners, where the team has Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, Jose Martinez, Nate Lowe, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo as possible options.
Here’s why you should look at Tsutsugo. He’s was an extremely talented hitter, and the Philthy Projections think he will hold a lot of that talent coming over to MLB (.365 OBP, .488 SLG). He’s a left-handed bat, so even if he gets platooned, it should be the strong side of a timeshare. He’s also capable of playing multiple positions in the field, and might wind up with 1B/3B/OF eligibility in your fantasy league this season. Finally, the Rays are considering using him as a leadoff man, which will boost his value by locking in extra plate appearances.
Jesse Winker - OF - Reds
It feels like Winker is a breakout candidate every season, but we’ve yet to see him stake his claim in a full time role for the Reds. As a left-handed batter, he’s frequently the strong side of a platoon who should see about 2/3 of the action as Cincinnati’s left fielder this year.
He hits a ton of line drives (24.0% LD-rate in 2018, 26.4% in 2019) which helps to give him a higher BABIP floor (.315 projected BABIP for 2020). This means he’s a nice piece in a batting average league (.279 career Statcast xBA). He’s been good thus far in his career at hunting fastballs (.411 wOBA against fastballs in 2018, .397 in 2019). So, predictably, he saw less of them last year (drop in fastballs seen from 60.6% to 57.6%). The book is out on how to attack him, so Winker will need to adapt to breaking stuff to take that next step forward.
Eric Thames - 1B - Nationals
It feels like I wind up owning Thames for $1 every year. He’s a left-handed bat that usually gets platooned because he hits about 200 points of OPS lower against same handed pitching. But when he’s teeing off against right handed pitchers, he’s a super productive hitter. And with Ryan Zimmerman retiring, there’s really no one else on the Nationals roster that will push Thames and his right-handed parter, Howie Kendrick, off from playing time at first base.
Thames is a confirmed large human. Consequently, he hits the ball hard, posting average exit velocities in excess of 90 mph each of the last two seasons. He could be a late source of double digit home runs for your squad this year.
Robinson Canó - 2B - Mets
It’s nearing the end of the line for this future Hall of Famer, but the dude still boasts a career batting average over .300 at the ripe old age of 37. Cano has posted an average exit velocity of over 90 mph in each of the last five seasons. He also still makes a ton of contact and uses his excellent barrel control to pepper a lot of line drives without hitting many pop-ups.
Philthy is predicting a bounceback season in the batting average/BABIP department for Canó this year. If he hits over .280 as a regular player batting in the top half of the Mets lineup, you’ll regret not grabbing him at the end of your draft.
Kevin Cron - 1B/DH - Diamondbacks
Cron is an example of the Philthy Projections believing in a player’s minor league statistical track record. “But wait!” you say, “Cron was an older guy who hit in a hitter friendly park in the crazy run scoring environment of the PCL last year!” While this is true, even when those external factors are accounted for and discounted, Kevin Cron is still a really productive hitter.
Cron showed a knack for the barrel in his brief time in the MLB last season (22.7% barrel rate in a small 78 PA sample). His competitors for playing time this year are Christian Walker and Jake Lamb. Walker swung between very hot and very cold during his 2019 breakout. The Philty Projections don’t like Lamb, only seeing a .702 OPS for him in 2020. Cron will get his reps, and if he’s hot during those reps, he can easily work his way into regular playing time.
Brendan Rodgers - 2B/SS - Rockies
Here’s the first ‘prospect fatigue’ candidate on the list. Don’t buy into the perception of Rodgers as not living up to expectations. He’s a skilled hitter that’s still just 23 years old. He can hit, and I think he will break out if the Rockies give him anything close to resembling regular playing time. However, this is the Rockies, so you can’t count on it. He’s more of a ‘must monitor’ than ‘must draft’ player until the organization proves that they are going to utilize him moving forward.
Rowdy Tellez - 1B - Blue Jays
“Rowdy” Rowdy Tellez was a barrel machine last year. He hit 34 barrels in 409 plate appearances in 2019, good for a 91st percentile outcome in the MLB last season. Barrel rate tells you an awful lot about what you need to know about a hitter. When he makes contact, does he do damage? Pencil a barrel in for a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. Barrels are included in the Philthy Projection soup. It’s why the projections believe Tellez can post an average .301 BABIP despite being a big, slow player with 16th percentile sprint speed.
Nate Lowe - 1B/DH - Rays
Remember the discussion around the Rays being jammed at the corners? Well here’s another potential stud waiting to be picked up in the event that the playing time breakdown works in his favor this season. Nathaniel “Nate” Lowe posted a 45.2% Hard Hit rate in limited MLB time in 2019. His propensity for hitting the ball hard seems to have carried over into both Spring Training and Summer Camp this season. The team has gotten him defensive reps at third base as well, hopefully in an effort to squeeze his bat into the lineup. If he gets regular playing time, he’s another guy that could pop off double digit home runs in 2020.
Matt Carpenter - 1B/3B/DH - Cardinals
The addition of the DH slot to the National League for 2020 (and beyond?) is a perfect development for Matt Carpenter at this stage in his career. There’s no issue with getting his bat into the lineup now, and Carpenter has shown the ability to be a very productive bat in the past. 2019 was a rough one all-around, but don’t forget that Carpenter posted elite xwOBA numbers in each of the four seasons prior to 2019. Just remember to discount him appropriately in batting average leagues, where he needs a batting average buddy to rosterable. In OBP and OPS leagues, his value takes a jump.
Asdrubal Cabrera - 2B/SS - Nationals
This guy feels like he’s had about five different MLB careers. At 34, he’s firmly into the ‘journeyman utility man’ stage of his career. But it is a role that the Nationals will probably need him to fill this year, especially if Trea Turner gets hurt again or Starlin Castro or Carter Kieboom flounder in regular roles for the team. The Philthy’s see him as a well rounded bat that makes a good amount of contact and will help you in every category but stolen bases. He can be a glue guy, bench piece for your fantasy team this season.
Chris Taylor - 2B/SS/OF - Dodgers
Good luck trying to figure out the Dodgers playing time situation. They’ve got a number of players projected to play multiple positions and split up the playing time. However, I think this short sprint season is a situation where veteran players might be a little more trusted by their managers. There simply isn’t the time to let a rookie get accustomed to big league pitching for a couple of weeks.
The projections are fond of Taylor because he’s a great line drive hitter, even though he doesn’t always hit the ball real hard. His LD% in the Statcast era is 30.9%, well above the MLB average of 25.5% during that timeframe. He’s also a great athlete, posting a 89th percentile sprint speed. The result is that he should be able to carry a high BABIP, which helps mask his troubles making contact. He’s also the first guy on this list that can help you with stolen bases.
Chance sisco - c - orioles
Rostering Sisco as a second catcher comes with a big caveat - don’t do it in batting average leagues! His swing and miss issues will offset any potential gains in the counting categories. That being said, he’s fine in OBP, OPS, and points leagues. The Philthys project a 10.0% BB-rate for 2020 for Sisco. He also flashed a double-digit barrel rate and his average exit velocity ticked up a little bit in 2019. He pulls the ball a lot as well. The final step for him to post a surprise double-digit home run campaign would be to start lifting those pull-side shots and turning them into fly balls. He probably won’t hit double digit home runs this year, but I’m saying there’s a chance.
Tyler o’neill - of - cardinals
Tyler O’Neill began his coronavirus lockdown with ‘borrowing’ a weight set from the team facility in Florida. He’s now looking like the club’s starting leftfielder. To me, an analysis of O’Neill begins with the fact that he has a skillset which should support a high BABIP. He hits the ball hard, hits a good amount of line drives, and he’s one of the fastest players in Major League Baseball (99th percentile sprint speed in 2019). This means that he can succeed at the plate even with a strikeout rate above 30%. And if his contact improves a bit, and he gets some good BABIP luck in a small sample, he could be one of the most valuable fantasy players in 2020.
evan white - 1b - mariners
He’s my dark horse candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. When you look at White’s Philthy Projections, one feature is that his 2017 NCAA stats are included in the projection. I think this is something you won’t find anywhere else.
White is a very athletic player who could probably cover center field for the Mariners in a pinch. The team signed him to a team-friendly long-term deal in the offseason, and the Mariners didn’t go out and sign an aging 1B/DH type to take plate appearances away. He’s the team’s starting 1B and should be able to hold onto that job all season. White is at his most valuable in batting average leagues, due to his ability to make frequent quality contact. Throw in some growing power and enough speed to steal a couple bases, and he’s a great flyer for your corner infield spot late in drafts.
Adam frazier - 2b - pirates
Adam Frazier’s profile is built on contact, making him a sneaky late choice to fill your second base slot in batting average leagues. Right now he’s penciled in batting third for the Pirates, giving him a good shot at racking up plate appearances this season. He doesn’t hit the ball very hard, but his pull rate and flyball rate both ticked up a bit over the last two seasons. Don’t be surprised if he runs into some pull-side home runs if 2019’s happy fun ball is in play for 2020.
Marwin Gonzalez - 1B/2B/3B/OF - Twins
Marwin Gonzalez’s positional versatility makes him a great bench piece for your fantasy team this season. For a minute, it looked like Gonazlez was going to be in a position for regular reps at first base with Miguel Sano out. However, Sano has cleared the COVD-19 protocol and is looking ready to start the season. Even without a regular job, Marwin is going to see the field plenty for the Twins. He shouldn’t hurt you in either AVG or OBP leagues, and he can drive the ball for extra bases and home runs (78th percentile average exit velocity, 79th percentile Statcast hard-hit rate in 2019). The final feather in his cap is that he’s a switch-hitter.
Cameron maybin - of - tigers
Cameron Maybin returns to the organization that drafted him 10th overall in 2005 after a journeyman professional career. I think he’s got a shot to develop into a steady veteran leader for this young Detroit club. In 2019 he experienced some kind of resurgence, with a number of his Statcast metrics (launch angle, hard hit percentage, barrel percentage, xSLG) taking a leap forward. He also whiffed a lot more and hit far more fly balls than he had at any other point in the last 5 seasons. It’s like he started worrying less about making contact and focused on making hard, flyball contact. He can still get out on the basepaths and swipe some bases too (87th percentile sprint speed). He’s a smart veteran hitter that you should think about adding to your club.
Jay bruce - of - phillies
A left-handed hitter who has always had prodigious power, Bruce is slated to bat cleanup for the Phillies to start the season. He’s going to hit home runs. He always does. Pitchers thought they could get after him by throwing him a ton of breaking stuff last year (he saw 29.9% breaking balls in 2019), and he responded by punishing all the mistakes (.467 xSLG against breaking balls). Just remember that if you plan on using him, you’ve got to tackle his brutal AVG and OBP in your roster construction.
franchy cordero - of - royals
Great news for Franchy owners this offseason, as he now has a shot at a full time gig after being traded to Kansas City. Franchy is a noted Statcast darling, but that strikeout rate might spike your blood pressure as well. Be careful rostering him in points or sim formats which penalize hitters for strikeouts. But in a standard roto scoring setup, he’s just so intriguing to plop on your bench. 90th percentile sprint speed and a 92.4 mph average exit velocity last season.
Nico hoerner - 2B/ss/of - cubs
Nico Hoerner got his cup of coffee in Chicago last season, where he saw time at shortstop, second base, and surprisingly in center field. New manager David Ross has said that Hoerner will be battling with veteran Jason Kipnis for playing time as the regular second baseman this season. I think Hoerner will win the job if he gets a shot at it. The Philthy Projections think he’s a far more skilled hitter than Kipnis at this stage in his career, with Hoerner logging a 60 points of OPS higher projection than Kipnis.
Scouts have projected that Hoerner has the ability to tap into more power potential as he develops. At least part of this notion is that Hoerner has displayed a different swing in his professional career than he did in college at Stanford. And in a 70 game stint in AA last season, he did manage to cut his ground ball rate down to 41.5%. So don’t be surprised if his .415 slugging projection for this year winds up being too light.