For the first time since October 30th, we are about to watch MLB games that count. Which means fantasy players finally have something to do! Here are my 11 most exciting pitchers for 2020—not the best pitchers, but the ones on the verge of breaking out. If you’re participating in a last-minute draft, scoop these guys up, or if you have a chance to trade for them, make it happen.
(This article caps off an 11-day Twitter series—follow @TheReelJZ to see video and pitch overlays for each pitcher on the list.)
#1: Dustin May
As I explain in the Twitter thread below, the man they call “Gingergaard” is a dark horse candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. He tunnels his 96 mph sinker with a 91 mph cutter/slider to stymie hitters and mixes in sharp curveballs, tumbling changeups, and high 4-seamers up to 99. At 6’6”, he gets great extension with his fluid delivery. Dave Roberts will probably have May start some days and relieve others, but the righty should get 35-50 innings where a closer only goes 20-25 in this short season.
“If Things Go Well” 2020 Statline: 50 innings, 52 K, 3.10 ERA
#2: Brusdar Graterol
While Minnesota must not have believed in the 6’1”, 265-pound bull’s ability to start, Graterol makes throwing 101 mph sinkers look easy. The slider is vicious and the changeup is coming along, so he can be a good spot-starter this season with a chance to win a rotation spot. With 10 Ks to 2 BB in 9.2 MLB innings last year, this 21-year-old kid should give hitters fits, especially in one-inning stints where his velocity maxes out.
“If Things Go Well”: 35 innings, 40 K, 3.30 ERA
#3: Zack Wheeler
When it comes to pure stuff, you’d be hard-pressed to name 10 starters in MLB more electric than Wheeler. The results have been good since 2018—190 innings a year of a 3.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP—but if he ups his curveball usage from 10 percent to get more of that tunneling effect with his elevated 96-100 mph fastball, he could become an All-Star.
With Wheeler’s wipeout slider and changeup, it’s a really similar pitch mix to Gerrit Cole, so he should absolutely try to mimic the tweaks Cole made in Houston to unlock his potential. What really impresses me with Wheeler is how effortless his delivery is and with great extension to home—he almost lulls the hitter to sleep before blowing 99 by him.
Note: Wheeler’s wife gave birth Monday (mazal tov!), so he no longer needs to miss 2 starts like he would have had their boy been born next week. He’s slated to pitch this Saturday against Miami.
“If Things Go Well”: 66 innings, 70 K, 3.20 ERA
#4 & #5: Jonathan Loaisiga and Clarke Schmidt
I wrote these two up in-depth in yesterday's piece—read that here!
Loaisiga: 35 innings, 45 K’ 3.50 ERA
Schmidt: 40 innings, 42 K, 3.80 ERA
#6: Joe Musgrove
Musgrove put up a 1.54 ERA over his first 35 innings last year before a dreadful May, finishing with a mediocre 4.44 ERA over a career-high 170 innings. But Musgrove has had good control his entire Big-League career with a 2 BB/9 mark, and his 1.23 WHIP and 3.94 FIP suggest that despite his 4.37 ERA, he is already solid. More importantly, at 27 years old, the athletic 6’5”, 235-pound righty is poised to capitalize on his plus stuff, from a nasty slider to quality curve and change to a fastball up to 97 mph that he can cut or sink.
“If Things Go Well”: 65 innings, 62 K, 3.65 ERA
#7: Jesus Luzardo
At just 22 years old, Luzardo could be one of baseball’s best relievers, coming off 12 innings in 2019 of 16 K to just 5 hits and 2 BB. Of course, his destiny is to dominate as a starter—he’s an ace in the making. With yesterday’s unfortunate new that A.J. Puk strained his shoulder, Luzardo has a chance to snag the 5th starter’s spot…once he shows what he can do, there will be no taking him out of the rotation.
A good athlete who’s worked hard in the weight room, Luzardo stays balanced through his powerful legs to locate 97 mph fastballs, and he touched 100 in the Wild Card game. That breaking ball is absolutely devastating, and the above average changeup gives him an equalizer against right-handed batters. This is the arm that can get Oakland over the hump.
“If Things Go Well”: 48 innings, 56 K, 3.25 ERA
#8: Sandy Alcántara
“If Things Go Well”: 68 innings, 58 K, 3.75 ERA
#9: Bryan Abreu
Easily the least known pitcher on this list, the 23-year-old Abreu is another muscular kid who throws gas. He really drives through his legs to create premium spin on his curveball, which hitters miss half the time they swing at: Statcast has him at an elite 3,000 RPM (revolutions per minute), and his 2,750 RPM slider had an even higher whiff% at 64%. His 95 mph fastball doesn’t have noteworthy spin and the changeup needs work, but this is back-of-the-bullpen stuff…and when someone in the rotation hits the IL, Abreu deserves a shot as a starter.
“If Things Go Well”: 30 innings, 42 K, 3.80 ERA
#10: Max Fried
“If Things Go Well”: 62 innings, 68 K’s, 3.15 ERA
#11: Zac Gallen
I don’t even know where to start with Gallen. The changeup that has All-Stars like Bryce Harper looking silly? (41% whiff rate). The fastball that he can elevate or front door lefties with? The 12-6 curveball that can bounce in front of the plate and still get a swing? Not only did Gallen post a mind-blowingly good 1.77 ERA over 14 starts in the minor leagues’ toughest environment—the Triple-A Pacific Coast League—but he backed that up with a 2.81 ERA over 15 starts in The Show. He can legitimately throw any pitch in any count, and his delivery combines balance and repeatability with arm speed and deception. At least once this season, make sure you carve out an evening to sit down and watch this guy pitch.
“If Things Go Well”: 58 innings, 66 K, 2.95 ERA
Follow Jacob on Twitter @TheReelJZ