Fernando Tatís Jr. (+1)
Rolling xwOBA is up all over the place, and he’s the 2nd best xwOBA improver in baseball over the last 250 plate appearances. He’s a Top-10 fantasy asset right now and he’s still only 21 years old. Sliding in front of José Ramírez now, as Tatís will give you as many SB as Ramírez while hitting for a lot more power. The question for redraft leagues next year is probably whether he’s under consideration to go first overall.
Aaron Judge (-5)
Just after I gave him a bump into first round hitter consideration, Judge went and got injured again. The team is calling the injury a strain to the “soleus muscle” in Judge’s right calf. He’s on another IL stint and will be missing at least the next 10 games.
Nolan Arenado (-2)
He’s been such a consistent masher over the years, that this was a tough tweak to decide on. But, as of now, I’d rather have Harper, Rendon, or Bogaerts. Arenado’s underlying batted ball metrics are not great. He still thrives on making contact (100th percentile K-rate in 2020). But something’s off, and he’s mishitting a lot of balls by getting under them. His 42% ‘under hit’ rate is nearly double the MLB average. This is making his overall launch angle steeper and his hard hit metrics worse than usual. And he’s always been a little bit of a Coors Field mirage, with a .995 OPS at home vs. a .791 OPS on the road during his career.
Pete Alonso (-9)
The Polar Bear is officially cold. Rolling xwOBA is down another 102 points this season, and the power-hitting 1B is slugging a mere .406 on the season. One thing about cold-hitting 1B/DH only types is they probably have the shortest leash of any position. There’s usually another guy who can’t field but can swing a hot bat sitting behind them waiting to take reps.
Adalberto Mondesi (-55)
He’s stolen 10 bases despite a .224 OBP this season, which is some kind of feat. But everything else on the stat line is hard to look at. K% is bottom 8th percentile, BB% is bottom 1st percentile, xwOBACON is 0th (??) percentile somehow. He’s still only 24 years old, and 2018 still exists in his track record, so if you own him in a dynasty don’t cut bait. But also, your chance to cut bait is probably gone out the window anyway.
Manny Machado (+6)
I was happy I got a little ahead of his hot streak by bumping Machado up a couple of weeks back. It’s also nice to see him running a bit again this year, with 3 steals in 177 PAs putting him back on double-digit SB pace in a normal season. He’s a key cog in the best offense in baseball (yeah I said it! The Padres’ 5.72 R/G lead the MLB at this point).
Marcell Ozuna (+7)
Raging right now, +119 xwOBA over his last 50 PAs, +51 over his last 100. Ozuna hasn’t posted an average exit velocity outside of the Top-10th percentile since 2016. His xBA has improved every year of his career. He’s walking a career high 13.6% of the time. I honestly think Ozuna could settle into this level of production for a while with the NL DH in place.
Joey Gallo (-5)
He’s cratering at the moment, with a -158 rolling xwOBA over his last 50 PAs. But even more concerning, that same measure is also -109 over his last 250 PAs. That’s the third-worst rate in baseball over that timeframe. It’s no secret that Gallo is going to strike out, but this season he’s just not punishing the ball when he makes contact, posting a .427 xSLG. Why? Well he’s just mishitting under the ball, with a 39.7% under-hit rate (about 15 points above league average) and a 26 degree average launch angle.
Corey Seager (+11)
+131 rolling xwOBA over his last 50 PAs. His quality of contact measures are just off the charts this year. He’s not going to get you steals, but at shortstop he’s hard to beat right now. It’s wild to think about, but is his .333 BABIP a bit unlucky??
Rhys Hoskins (+5)
Hoskins is quietly returning to the studly form that he displayed during his outstanding rookie debut. He’s pushing for another 1.000 OPS season, made possible by a .307 BABIP and otherworldly patience at the plate. His 18.8% walk rate is in the top two percent of the league this season. Locked in the #2 spot in the order for the 3rd best offense in baseball as well (5.53 R/G).
Max Muncy (+4)
Heating up a bit, Muncy’s barrel rate keeps percolating upward. He’s now finding the barrel at a 13% clip in 2020. He’s also worked his way back into the 3rd/4th slot in the order in the past week. And this is the second-best offense in baseball this season, so opportunities should be plentiful.
Andrew McCutchen (+6)
I noted earlier that the Phillies offense is the third best in baseball this season. Well it starts with Andrew McCutchen in the leadoff spot. He’s a crafty veteran hitter with power to all fields. He’s become stubbornly hard to strikeout this season, with a career best 15.7% K-rate and a 91st percentile whiff rate. And he’s still running, racking up three stolen bases this season. Maybe the age-related decline hits him hard at some point, but right now he’s aging very gracefully.
Brandon Lowe (-5)
WARNING. -231 xwOBA over his last 50 PAs. You already banked his hot start so don’t be afraid to set him on your bench during this cold snap if you’ve got other options.
Max Kepler (OUT)
He’s off to the IL with a left groin issue that hampered him earlier in the week. After his 2019 breakout, Kepler’s 2020 looks strikingly similar to his performance in 2016-2018.
Kyle Tucker (+10)
Just a really nice showing in 2020 for the guy that dynasty owners have been longing for. Kyle Tucker presents us with a five-tool skillset, as he’s simply above average at pretty much every facet of the game. Give him an extra bump in Triples leagues!
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (+4)
Glad I left him in the Top-100 as it was only a matter of time before he got some good luck swinging his way. LGJR is on a +113 xwOBA bender at the moment. One intriguing development Lourdes has shown us this season is an even more advanced plate approach, and this draws him ever closer to hitting my patented (?) “big boy filter”. Hitters that hit the big boy filter have an ISO > .200, a K% < 20%, and a K-BB rate < 10%. A couple more walks and he’s there.
Christian Walker (OUT)
These first basemen are always living on the edge of the Top 100. Walker is just a notably streaky performer, and he’s slumping at the moment. So far it hasn’t impacted his playing time or spot in the order though, so hopefully it’s just a phase he’s working through. Like that year in high school when I listened only to U2.
Alex Dickerson (NEW)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. almost hit my “big boy filter”, but Alex Dickerson has hit it for 2020 thus far and therefore is into my Top-100. He’s hot at the moment as well, with a +127 rolling xwOBA over his last 50 PAs. He’s been primarily hitting in the two-hole for the Giants recently, and the Giants offense is shockingly the sixth best in the MLB this season, and they are doing it with the oldest lineup in baseball (average age 30.1 years).
Austin Riley (NEW)
I’ve ridden this rollercoaster before, but when Riley is hot you need to buckle up and hang on for a little bit. Right now he’s rocking a +124 rolling xwOBA in his last 50 PAs. He’s lowered his K-rate by 10 points from his 2019 mark. And he’s murdering breaking balls to the tune of a .750 xSLG.