It’s officially September! the Trade Deadline has passed, the playoff chase is on, and fantasy leagues are entering their last week or two before their postseasons. This means it is one of the final times we will be able to inform fantasy owners on how the top arms in the league have been faring before the stretch run.
The Trade Deadline saw some big names move, including Mike Clevinger (#20) going to San Diego, and Mike Minor (#61) heading off to Oakland. Some big arms thought to be on the trade block (most notably #21 Lance Lynn) ended up going nowhere, which will impact their fantasy stock in points per win leagues in particular.
In addition to big names putting on a new jersey for the first time, some notable figures (including a certain “mad” man) are returning back from the IL just in time for the end of the fantasy season, and multiple young arms continue to impress.
Without further ado, here’s our starting pitcher update for this first week of September:
Starter Report:
Mike Clevinger- San Diego Padres (#20):
Only a week after returning from his punishment for breaking Covid-19 protocols, the Indians decided to deal Clevinger for six players (prospects and big leaguers). While this wasn’t necessarily a surprise, it is still never easy for a player to be traded to a team across the country, and perform well the moment they arrive. Clevinger did just that, working 6 innings of two-run ball, where he struck out two, walking one and allowing seven hits. This was a solid debut given he had just moved cross country, and was throwing to a catcher that had never caught him prior. I would anticipate that there may be a learning curve over the next few weeks with his battery-mates (could lead to worse starts- fair warning), but at the end of the day, San Diego is a fantastic fit for “Clev”, and I fully expect him to be his dominant self come October.
Mike Minor- Oakland Athletics (#61):
Minor, now a member of the Oakland A’s after being dealt at the deadline, made his A’s debut on Friday against San Diego. Minor worked one inning out of the pen to aid in the attempt to salvage the game post Jesus Luzardo getting lit up. Minor gave up two runs on two hits (back to back home runs for Machado and Tatis). While it was not the debut that Minor would have dreamed of, he has struggled against San Diego this year already- having given up 6 earned on 9 hits (3.2 IP) on August 18. Minor has not been at his best this year, but has still been serviceable enough, and should see a boost in wins with Oakland (great for leagues where pitchers get points added for a win).
Max Fried- Atlanta Braves (#4):
Fried is finally getting the love that he deserves this week in moving up to number 4. With a 6-0 record, and a 1.60 ERA, Fried is a clear Cy Young favorite, and doesn’t look like he is slowing down any time soon. Fried’s k/9 sits around 8, though his walk rate is very low (WHIP of 1 in 7 2020 starts). He won his 2 starts last week, going 11 innings between the two, where he gave up 3 runs on 9 hits, striking out 10 and walking 3 (between the 2 starts). Fried is above the 90th percentile in the entire league in xERA, xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage- translation: he is not giving up runs and is not being hit hard. Tie those numbers into an arsenal with breaking ball spin rates sitting in the 81st percentile (high gyro slider + efficient, late breaking curveball) and you have an elite arm.
Aaron Nola- Philadelphia Phillies (#12):
Nola is finally throwing like an ace in 2020. Not only that, but my faith in Nola as a top fantasy arm moving forward has grown exponentially due to the adjustments in which he has made. Nola began the season with a 2-2 record over his first 4 starts, with hitters seemingly picking up on Nola’s pitch pattern the second and third time through the lineup (predominantly fastball curveball). Nola, as most top arms do, made the adjustment with his sequencing. Since getting roughed up against the Braves on August 21st, Nola has leaned into his changeup; over his last two starts (15IP, 7H, 2 ER, 17K. 5BB) he has thrown it more than any other pitch (29.3%). The near even distribution of his four pitch arsenal (change 29.3%, curve 24.5%, fastball 24.5%, sinker 21.6%) has allowed his low to mid 90s fastball to play harder due to its less frequent use. This has made it more of a strikeout weapon and has further bolstered his profile. The change in sequencing is a major boost for owners in dynasty leagues, as while he is a long way away from aging, he is already showing a willingness to reinvent his approach to find more success.
Yusei Kikuchi- Seattle Mariners (#37):
Kikuchi’s feature this week comes as a result of some questions on Twitter about his viability as a fantasy arm last week. While Kikuchi has struggled mightily from a basic statistical perspective (2-2, 5.23 ERA), the advanced numbers and metrics tell us that this statistic is not entirely his fault. Kikuchi sports a solid 9.9 K/9, and a WHIP of 1.19. The WHIP is most significant of these two statistics, and looks really solid when you pair it with the fact that he falls into the 88th percentile in barrel percentage (he isn’t being hit hard very often). The barrel percentage is just the start when it comes to his advanced analytic profile pointing towards him being better than his stats suggest (68th percentile in xwOBA, 76th percentile in xSLG, and 71st in Whiff%). Kikuchi has four pitches, a cutter and four seamer which both play plus according to Quality of Pitch Baseball (take into account movement profiles, spin, etc and compare vs rest of league), and an average slider and change. Despite the cutter being his best pitch, it is being hit the most often. This is clearly due to the fact that he is throwing it 41.7% of the time.
Kikuchi is also throwing his fastball 39.2% of the time. Despite the pitches being plus, it does not matter if you throw the pitch too often. The average velocity on the cutter hovers around 92 mph, three ticks slower than his average fastball. It is very hard to be dominant where your average change in velocity is less than 5mph (only throws slider and change a combined 19.1% of the time). It is clear that the stuff is still there, yet the pitch sequencing is off. He is an arm worth continuing to follow as a change in his mix could result in him becoming a top level arm very quickly.
Madison Bumgarner- Arizona Diamondbacks (#52):
Bumgarner returns from the IL on Saturday against his former team, the San Francisco Giants just in time for the fantasy stretch run. Bumgarner struggled prior to his going on the IL (18ER in 17.1 IP), with a major talking point being his drop in fastball velocity. Bumgarner is only 31 years old, so he is not at a stage in his career where a permanent drop in velocity would normally occur. It is clear that he has not been at 100%, and hopefully his time on the IL gave him the ability to get the rest he needed in order to get his body right. I would expect a big outing his first time back out (it’s against the Giants) as we know how much Bumgarner loves to perform in games that matter (this one will matter to him). He likely wont be a dominant arm throughout the rest of this shortened season, but there is potential for him to be a serviceable option, especially in fantasy leagues with 12+ teams.
Ian Anderson- Atlanta Braves (#54):
Anderson is one of the most underrated arms in all of Major League Baseball, and it’s about time someone starts giving him the love he deserves. The rookie’s first two starts in the league have been nothing short of stellar (12IP, 7H, 3ER, 14K, 3BB vs the Red Sox and Yankees). While he has only had two starts, he has looked like a top notch arm, posting a whiff percentage in the 91st percentile (starters and relievers included), a barrel percentage and xSLG both in the 95th percentile, an xBA in the 79th, and a K% in the 77th. In other words, he has looked like the number two arm that Atlanta desperately needs for a deep postseason run. Anderson mixes his three pitches (four seam, changeup, and curveball) pretty evenly, and seems to have a good feel for them. Anderson will be back on the hill on Monday against the Marlins, a team that has struggled mightily at the plate of late. If you need a guy for a spot start, he would be a fantastic choice -- don’t be surprised if you decide to hang onto him though, the kid is legit.