The off-season has kicked off and we haven’t even reached the Winter Meetings. Free agent contracts have been handed out at a surprising rate and the first substantial trade hit our desk on Thanksgiving eve. An exciting deal lofted directly into our wheelhouse with two recently graduated Top 100 prospects.
Headed to Milwaukee are middle infield prospect Luis Urias and left handed starter Eric Lauer. Two players in a crunch for playing time, that both receive a boost in value as they head to an organization where there should be opportunities. Going back to the Padres are 2019 breakout prospect Trent Grisham and veteran righthander Zach Davies.
Let’s take a look at each side of the deal and examine how the pieces fit in their respective new homes.
Brewers Receive Luis Urias (2B/SS) and Eric Lauer (LHP)
Before we dig into Luis Urias’ pros and cons, let’s first touch on Lauer. The swap for Lauer and Davies is rather equal outside of salary and a few years in age. Davies will make $5 million in arbitration in 2020 while Lauer is a season of service out from his first arbitration year. According to FIP and SIERA, Lauer actually outpitched Davies even if their ERAs were nearly a run apart. A former first rounder out of Kent State, Lauer mixes a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a high-80s cutter, and high-70s curveball primarily, occasionally mixing in a slider and a changeup.
Prior to 2019 Lauer used a slider as his primary secondary, but almost entirely scraped the pitch this season seeing its usage drop from 20.2% in 2018 to 6.5% in 2019. In lieu of the slider the lefty employed a high-80s cutter in its place. Additionally Lauer dropped his fastball usage by over 5%, leading to a massive jump in not only cutter usage but also a bump in the frequency in which he threw his curveball. The pitch was a slight upgrade from his slider in terms of its expected outcomes, but actually rated the worst of his primary offerings with an xwOBA of .348, compared to a .311 on his four seamer, and a .275 on his curveball. Interested to see if the Brewers ask him to throw the hook more going forward.
The lefty doesn’t miss a lot of bats, despite a decent K/9 in 2019. He mostly relies on generating weak contact and hitting his spots. Unfortunately the weak contact has been far too infrequent. His 41.6% Hard Contract rate tells the story, but it’s not all bad. His expected outcomes were above average with an xwOBA of .311. The Brewers have some success with reclamation projects. Do they view Lauer as a potential rotation piece a tweak away from greater results? Perhaps, or they saw the opportunity to leverage The Padres need for a lefthanded bat and capable outfield glove, and flip Davies for a younger, cheaper model. Likely the latter.
As for Luis Urias, much maligned over the last year, the middle infielder once considered one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues looked to add power. A gaudy leg kick gave way to timing problems which gave way to struggles. Particularly with higher velocity and fastballs up in the zone. If Urias returns to his old line drive ways will he lack the impactful power or speed to make him anything more than empty batting average? It’s a good question, and one that has long been a concern leading into the last season plus. Urias showed well in the PCL this season but the juiced ball paired with El Paso’s extra friendly environment should lead to some skepticism toward his 2019 line of .315/.398/.600.
That said, Milwaukee is a friendly hitting environment, boasts a strong lineup, and looks to have the opportunity for Urias to earn everyday playing time. Whether that’s at second base or the rumored shortstop remains to be seen. With Keston Hiura likely sticking at second it appears Urias will have a chance to beat out Orlando Arcia for the shortstop job. The hope is you’d trade Arcia’s above average defense for Urias’ bat, but the latter has yet to show at the MLB level. A divisive prospect over the last 18 months, the debate over Urias’ future role rages on.
Padres Receive Trent Grisham (OF) and Zach Davies (RHP)
Once again let’s start with the pitcher, this time Zach Davies going the Padres way. The righthander has always outpitched his peripherals, with three sub-4 ERA seasons under his belt, as well as cumulative WAR of 7.8 over parts of five major league seasons. His fastball has below average velocity averaging 88.6 mph on his sinker, the fifth slowest fastball average in baseball. The results haven’t been great against the pitch with a .352 wOBA and .361 xwOBA. This is likely one of the primary reasons Davies began to curb his fastball usage heavily in 2018, dropping closer to 50% usage this season from near-60% earlier in his career. He upped his changeup usage, and for good reason as the pitch rated highly in Fangraphs Pitch Values. With his changeup ranking as the fourth most valuable changeup in all of MLB. The pitch grades well in expected outcomes too, as the only pitch in his arsenal capable of truly limiting hard contact. His curveball features above average spin but hasn’t done a great job of limiting hard contact with the highest xwOBA of his oft-used pitches. It’s a backend inning eater profile with a track record of limiting hard contact. The irony of it all catching up to Davies at of all places Petco is exactly what’d you should expect in baseball. Not a bad veteran add, but not a clear upgrade from the outgoing Lauer.
Arguably the best player in the trade, Trent Grisham has undergone his share of changes. Name change, swing change, and now a change of scenery. The former first rounder took some time to marinate in the minors but was finally able to find his power stroke in 2019 and was able to pair his athleticism, advanced approach, and new found pop in his way to excellent results. After producing a slashline of .307/.407/.603 with 26 homers over 97 games Grisham found himself in the majors, where his contact and plate approach held up, but his power dropped off, and he failed to do damage against lefthanders. This is a trend to monitor as his splits in the minors don’t necessarily support the results versus southpaws at the big league level.
Many fantasy baseball managers we’re looking forward to a full season of Grisham in the lefty power conducive Miller Park, but will now have to come to terms with more certain playing time in San Dieg, but a less friendly hitting environment. Make no mistake Grisham should start from Day one for the Padres. He exhausted his rookie limits last year and offers the best overall profile of any outfielder on the Padres major league roster. If his struggles with lefthanders persist, it could lead to a platoon with lefty-killer Manny Margot. His overall skill set and power potential makes him an intriguing upside option for the Padres as they jettison a young player in Urias that had fallen out of favor with the Padres brass. The move addresses multiple holes in the Padres lineup as they address a need for lefty power and athleticism in the outfield. Likely not a great fit in centerfield but he might be the best of what the Padres have to offer.
Conclusion: A strong deal for each club with upside at positions of need.