Boy this offseason’s hot stove has been a lot more interesting than last year’s, hasn’t it? Preller’s Padres have been active, seeing an opportunity to make a run at the NL West this season. This time, they hooked up with Tampa Bay to swing a trade that does something for both clubs. Joining me on this piece are Alex Jensen and Diego Solares.
Tampa Bay Trades Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth
San Diego Trades Hunter Renfroe, Xavier Edwards, and a player to be named later
Tommy Pham (MLB, LF)
The Good: Tommy Pham slots in as a starting left fielder and helps solidify San Diego’s OF situation. The Padres rebuild has yet to produce a standout outfielder, but give GM A.J. Preller credit for addressing the situation this offseason. Pham gives the Friars an immediate OBP upgrade (.369 OBP in 2019, .373 OBP career). which also gives him a perennially valuable floor. He’s posted a wRC+ of 121 or better and a DRC+ of 116 or better in each of the past three seasons. In addition, he’s a strong baserunner (87th percentile Statcast sprint speed) and an excellent base stealer, going 25 for 29 in swipes last season. According to FanGraphs’ current 2020 Steamer projections, Pham is projected to be around three wins of value better than Hunter Renfroe for the upcoming season.
The Bad: Pham is working his way down the wrong side of the aging curve heading into his age 32 season. While he was a very effective base stealer last season, his ‘OF jump’ only ranked in the 28th percentile, and he recorded a brutal -11 Outs Above Average in 2019. He’ll stick in left field the remainder of his career and won’t get the benefit of the DH slot in San Diego. Finally, 2020 is Pham’s second arbitration year, giving San Diego two fewer years of team control over Pham as opposed to Hunter Renfroe.
Fantasy Impact - Neutral
At first blush, Pham’ move to Petco Park and the NL West seems like it will negatively impact his fantasy numbers. However, according to Baseball Prospectus’s Park Factors (which include handedness splits), right-handed hitters actually fare a little better in Petco (97 run factor, 97 home run factor, where league average = 100) than they do in Tropicana Field (94 run factor, 95 home run factor). And Pham had his best season as a hitter while playing in St. Louis (96 run factor, 91 home run factor). So don’t fear PetCo. And to the extent that his fantasy value is built on stealing bags, Pham posted an 87th percentile sprint speed last year. Pham should continue to be a productive fantasy outfielder with the Padres.
Jake Cronenworth (AAA, SS/2B/3B/RHP)
Write-Up Courtesy of Alex Jensen
The Good: Cronenworth, a 2015 seventh round pick as a two-way star from Michigan, flew somewhat under the radar until 2019. A trip to Triple-A with juiced ball helped Cronenworth become one of the biggest risers of 2019.
Always known for his arm over his bat, Cronenworth made strides with both in 2019. While you can point to the juiced ball for inflating his Triple-A stats, you can’t argue with a 147 wRC+ at the level. In fact, Cronenworth was even higher before an injury late season that cost him a month. Up until the injury he slashed .342/.432/.540 with 24 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR and 11 SB in 80 games played. His 55/43 K/BB over that time period showcase an advanced approach as well.
Known for his arm at shortstop for a long time, Cronenworth’s hose receives grades as high as 70 on the 20-80 scale. His defense draws rave reviews as well, grading between above average to plus with the speed, instincts and arm to play across the infield.
In Baseball America’s review of the top minor league tools as voted by minor league managers; Cronenworth was voted as the “best batting prospect in the International League”, “best defensive Shortstop in the International League”, “best infield arm in the International League” and “most exciting player in the International League”. Only Oscar Mercado joined Cronenworth in receiving multiple awards.
On the mound, Cronenworth has legit late inning relief pitcher stuff with two plus fastballs and an above average curve. He’s a legit major league arm and served as the Durham Bulls’ Opener last season.
The Bad: Cronenworth’s minor league track record brings concern to last year’s power totals, as does a nearly 50 GB%. But at minimum, with a quick, compact swing and plus approach he’s shown a good hit tool with more power upside than initially expected.
Hunter Renfroe (MLB, RF/LF)
The Good: Renfroe provided excellent defensive value last year. Between 65 starts in LF and 45 starts in RF, Renfroe posted +6 Outs Above Average according to Statcast. FanGraphs advanced defensive metrics put his Defensive Runs Saved contribution at +22, with a ridiculous +6 DRS from his throwing arm alone (13 OF Assists for the old school types like myself that still love that stat). He should slot in as the Rays’ everyday right fielder. Between Renfroe in right and Kevin Kiermaier in center, a lot of flyballs should die in the Trop in 2020.
Renfroe also possesses plus raw power and owns a career .259 ISO. And even with the strikeouts, Renfroe has shown the ability to be an above average offensive producer in the bigs. He posted a 114 wRC+ and 110 DRC+ in a strong 2018 season. While strikeouts were a problem last year, his SwStr% actually improved a bit to 13.1%. It’s not unreasonable to imagine that Renfroe could weld his 2019 defensive improvements together with his 2018 offensive production and find a 4.0+ WAR season.
Finally, Tampa Bay swapped two years of team control over Pham for four years of team control over Renfroe. Like RoboCop, the Rays organization always follows its Prime Directives. My colleague Eddy drove home the point in this tweet.
The Bad: Renfroe’s plate approach can just be brutal at times, evidenced by the fact that he’s now posted two sub-.300 OBP seasons in his three full seasons in the majors. Sub-.300 OBP players are just tough to roster in both real life and fantasy. He also has trouble with right-handed pitching, posting an 88 wRC+ vs. righties as opposed to a 127 wRC+ against lefties last season putting him at risk of losing at bats late in games.
Fantasy Impact - Neutral
The change in home ballpark won’t be as impactful as I initially thought (see the Tommy Pham discussion above). I think the pitching in the AL East is worse than the pitching in the NL East (at least for now), and Renfroe might have a clearer path to everyday at bats in right field for Tampa. However, beware that there is a risk of Renfroe slipping to a weak side platoon/defensive replacement gig in an organization that loves using platoons and defensive replacements.
Xavier Edwards (2B/SS, High-A)
The Good: Our own Diego Solares put it best in his Padres Top-30 writeup when he described Xavier Edwards as an “elite athlete with above-average bat-to-ball skills.”
More positive details from Diego; “Edwards was a competitive balance pick of the Padres back in 2018 and forgoed a Vanderbilt commitment to sign with the team. He’s not an imposing figure by any means, standing at a lean 5-foot-10, but Edwards is a well above-average athlete with an elite run tool.
The switch-hitting Edwards is more productive from the left-hand side of the plate, but he’s no slouch against left-handed pitching either. He controls the barrel well and has a simple, compact swing that just makes contact with the baseball. Unlike most speedsters, Edwards has an above-average recognition of the strike zone and puts pressure on the defense every time he puts the ball in play.”
Edwards’s athleticism and glove can also play at multiple up-the-middle positions for the Rays in the future. This versatility will help him crack the 26-man roster for a team that’s going to be really creative in using the 26-man roster.
The Bad: As Diego (and also Xavier’s new Tampa Bay teammate, Blake Snell) noted, “there’s not much power in his swing, and there probably won’t ever be.” He’s got bottom of the barrel statistical power at this point in his career, having never posted an ISO above .100 and owning the lowest etimated flyball dustance in all of minor league baseball according to Minorgraphs.com. He can still be a role player on a big league club with that output, but not much else.