Find out all about the big Rule 5 draftees! I’ve given each a percentage chance to stick based of fit, stuff, ability, etc.
Rony Garcia- RHP Detroit Tigers
The soon to be 22-year-old Rony Garcia was signed by the Yankees as part of their 2015 international class which included big names Luis Medina, Deivi Garcia, and Estevan Florial. The right-hander got his second taste of the Florida State League in 2019 while pitching for the Tampa Tarpons, but after 25 innings was promoted to Double-A Trenton where he would spend the remainder of the season.
He has an ideal pitchers frame, at 6-foot-3 200, comes at hitters from a high ¾ arm slot and is a short strider, which can limit his extension. During our spring look we have him sitting 92-94 with the fastball, topping out at 95, and the pitch has two-seam movement, away from left-handed batters. He compliments the heater with an average curveball with 11-to-5 break, a newly developed cutter, and a firm high 80s changeup with minimal fade. His fastball and curveball have a chance to be plus pitches down the line, if he can tighten up his loose command. His likely future was in the bullpen due to the lack of a changeup, but the newly developed cutter has become a pitch he will lean on against lefties and gives him hope for a possible future as a starter. He was especially stingy against right-handers in 2019, which isn’t surprising due to the arm slot and breaking ball. I’m optimistic about him being a useful big league arm, I just don’t know if that’s in 2020 or not. Detroit will use him as a long-man early on, but could see some higher leverage appearances as the season goes on.
Chance to stick: 50%
Brandon Bailey- RHP Baltimore Orioles
Bailey enters his third organization after being the second selection in the Rule Five Draft. Originally drafted by Oakland, Bailey was sent to the Astros in the 2017 deal for center fielder Ramon Laureano. He was one of the first notable arms acquired because of high spin rates, and it isn’t shocking to see former Astro assistant GM Mike Elias make that move here.
Bailey was a former sixth rounder out of Gonzaga and despite his short stature was one of the best strikeout pitchers in the nation. It’s a high spin 92-94 heater that he throws up in the zone and sets up his 12-6 breaker. His changeup is plus and he also throws a slider/cutter that he can manipulate. The overall command is below average, but the high spin fastball creates more margin for error. There’s a chance Bailey grabs a rotation spot as the Orioles shuffle young arms back and forth between Norfolk and Baltimore.
Chance to stick: 60%
Sterling Sharp- RHP Miami Marlins
The Nationals decision to leave Sharp unprotected was surprising, partly due to Sharp but mostly due to the state of their farm system. He’s a rail thin right-hander with an ideal pitcher’s frame (6’4”, 180) and athleticism which helps him corral his long arm action. He’s a consistent strike thrower despite the delivery. During the Arizona Fall League I had Sharp at 88-92 and topping out at 93. He has excellent feel for his plus change and also throws a fringe slider. Sharp isn’t a guy that misses bats, but his extreme ground ball tilt can be a nice fit in a situational bullpen role.
Chance to stick: 40%
Stephen Woods Jr.- RHP Kansas City Royals
Woods was selected in the 8th round by the Giants in 2016 out of SUNY Albany. He was sent to the Rays as part of the return for franchise icon Evan Longoria. Woods struggled with throwing strikes in his collegiate days and those concerns have made the jump to pro ball. In 2016 and ‘17 he posted 13 percent walk rates, but those came with high strikeout rates. He missed all of 2018 with a labrum injury but pitched well in 2019. He posted the best walk rate of his career but the strikeouts dipped as well. Reports say Woods looked more like his former stuff later in the year as he got stronger, and he was touching 96 again. His fastball/slider combination will play in relief, but we need to see if the command improvements he made in 2019 carry over as well. This is the second year in a row the Royals plucked an arm from the Rays system in the Rule Five Draft.
Chance to stick: 15%
Yohan Ramirez- RHP Seattle Mariners
Ramirez was an off-the-radar late blooming international signing by the Astros in the 2015 signing period. Since he was already 21, he made an appearance stateside the same season. Yohan has a big fastball that can get up to 99 and sits 94-97. He has two inconsistent but nasty breaking balls with his potential plus curve as the standout. That all sounds awesome, except for the fact that he cannot throw strikes with any sort of consistency. The Mariners do have an excellent pitching development plan, so hopefully they can make this work. In the video I saw, Ramirez delivery and arm action reminded me of a young Carlos Martinez. I don’t see a scenario that has Ramirez in the rotation long term.
Chance to stick: 20%
Mark Payton- OF Cincinnati Reds
This is the second time Payton was selected in the Rule Five draft, as he was chosen in the minor league phase last season by Oakland from the Yankees organization. Payton made a swing change, and that combined with the Triple-A ball and the ridiculous offensive environment in Las Vegas led to his .334/.400/.653 slash with 30 homers. The Reds have a tough outfield situation to crack with Senzel, Aquino, Winker, Ervin and an eye towards a big free agent upgrade in the outfield. Without the ability to play centerfield, Payton will have a hard time making the roster if the Reds add another outfielder to the mix. It’s a worthwhile gamble though, as the upside is he’s a strong side of the platoon power bat.
Chance to stick: 25%
Dany Jimenez- RHP San Francisco Giants
The Giants popped Jimenez out of the Blue Jays organization. He was a late blooming international signing in 2015 out of the Dominican Republic. He’s posted above-average strikeout rates at every stop and doesn’t have wobbly command like Ramirez and Woods before him. Jimenez sits 95-97 with run on his heater, and his power breaking ball, a big curveball at 80-82, plays nicely off the pitch. Jimenez has also pitched 33 innings in Double-A, so if anyone can survive the big jump its Jimenez. He’s likely to stick in the Giants pen.
Chance to stick: 70%
Vimael Machin- SS Oakland Athletics
Machin was actually selected by the Phillies out of the Cubs system but was then traded to the Athletics shortly after the conclusion of the draft. Machin was a tenth round senior sign out of VCU by the Cubs in 2015. The scouting report here is simple. He can play all around the infield competently, has an excellent batting eye, has modest pull side pop and above average speed. He walked more than he struck out this year while splitting time between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. Oakland has some depth at second base, but Machin has enough versatility and offensive skills to stick as the 26th man and not hurt you.
Chance to stick: 45%
Trevor Megill- RHP Chicago Cubs
Megill is a 6’8” hurler that throws strikes and misses bats. The former Padre seventh rounder has battled arm injuries throughout his career but still gets it to 96 in short bursts. The former Loyola Marymount product should stick in a bullpen long term on the back of his fastball/slider combination. Last season in the tough Triple-A environment Megill struck out 32% of batters with a sub-9% walk rate and mid 3s FIP. The Cubs had success with Rowan Wick and Brad Weick last year, so its not surprising to see them light this candle again.
Chance to stick: 55%
Jonathan Arauz- SS Boston Red Sox
Arauz was signed by the Phillies for $600,000 in 2014 and was sent to Houston as part of the Ken Giles deal. Arauz is a switch-hitter with minimal power but strong contact skills. At the time he entered pro ball he was regarded as an offense first prospect, but the script has flipped and Arauz is now thought of as an above-average defender with smooth hands, good feet and strong arm that may or may not hit enough. He needs to add strength to provide offensive value, but if he sticks all season it’s not in a role that will help the Red Sox much in 2020.
Chance to stick: 10%
Michael Rucker- RHP Baltimore Orioles
Rucker was an 11th rounder out of BYU in 2016 by the Cubs. He’s put up some strong statistical numbers in the lower levels of the minors, but he was an advanced college starter that could locate his secondaries which was enough to carve up many bats in A-ball. He wasn’t missing bats in Double-A, but a move to the bullpen to being 2019 did the trick. His below average 88-91 fastball jumped up to 94-95 and he can hit 97 with an above average hook and average change. The presence of Brandon Bailey makes it more unlikely that Rucker sticks, but the Orioles will give him a shot.
Chance to stick: 15%