Rule Five

Breaking Down The Rule 5 Picks and Their Chances to Stick

Breaking Down The Rule 5 Picks and Their Chances to Stick

Find out all about the big Rule 5 draftees! We’ve given each a percentage chance to stick based of fit, stuff, ability, and more.

Big League Debut: Richie Martin, Baltimore Orioles

Martin was the first pick in the 2018 Rule Five Draft, and will be the Orioles primary shortstop for the beginning of 2019. The Orioles plucked Martin from the Athletics, where he was their first round pick in 2015 going 20th overall out of the University of Florida. He was a steady college performer that was known for his defense and speed, and he went 45-for-52 on the bases while on campus. He did flash a hit tool at times when he led the Cape with a record .364 average in 2014. The defense has translated thus far in his pro career, but until 2018 the offense lagged behind considerably. While repeating Double-A last year in Midland, Martin put together the best offensive season of his professional career, hitting .300/.368/.439 with career high totals in homers (six) and steals (25).

THE RANKINGS

Richie Martin is ranked number seven on Ralph Lifshitz’s Baltimore Orioles top 30 list.


THE TOOLS

Defense (60 Field/60 Arm): Defense is Martin’s calling card. His plus speed combined with lightning quick first step give him plus range, and that range paired with his plus arm allow him to make all the plays at the six. The glove at short will buy him more time for the bat to develop, and even if it doesn’t come around there’s enough here to carve out a career as a utility man. He did play some second base last year in an effort to expand his portfolio.

Power (30 Game/40 Raw): Martin set a new career high for homers in a season last year with six while repeating Double-A Midland, so there isn’t much over-the-fence thump here. Most of Martin’s extra-base hits will come from splitting the gaps or using his feet. In addition to the six homers, Martin set personal highs with 29 doubles and eight triples. He made more consistent hard contact last season, but his extreme groundball profile limits the upside. His last three stops in the minors have resulted in groundball percentages of 64%, 62% and 57%. Expecting more than ten homers a year from Martin might be a fruitless exercise, but he did drive the ball further last season after he re-worked his swing and swapped out his toe-tap for a leg kick.

Hit (40 Present/50 Future): Martin has done an excellent job of making consistent contact throughout his career and his strikeout rates should settle around 18-22% at peak. Martin credits a lot of his offensive breakout last season due to eye strengthening exercises and improved vision due to new contact lenses. The focus for Martin and the Orioles will be turning that high rate of contact into more quality contact.

Speed (60 Present/60 Future): Martin is a plus runner and it shows on both sides of the ball. How much his speed plays will be directly correlated to how much he gets on base and if the offensive improvements translate to the big leagues. At peak he could steal 15-20 bases.

Prediction: Martin is a worthwhile gamble for the Orioles and is exactly the type of player they should roll the dice on in a non-competitive season. The Orioles are looking to see if they can develop a role player like Martin into a second division regular. He’s a low upside player but his defensive skills alone can be worthy of a roster spot for the next half-dozen years. If his offensive game continues to grow then that’s a massive win for Martin and the Orioles.