There was a moment last season where I realized what separates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from every other minor league hitter I’ve every watched. The funny part is it wasn’t an actual at bat. Vlad was on deck while Bo Bichette faced Jack Wynkoop, a soft tossing lefty in the Rockies system. Guerrero Jr had homered off in Hartford about 10 days earlier. Despite his prior success against Wynkoop, Vlad was staring daggers at each pitch with an intense focus rarely seen. Bichette roped a double out to left center on a soft fastball over the plate. Up stepped Vlad. He took two pitches off the plate, the next pitch a fastball, he hit on a laser for a single.
It was so clear he was ready to hit exactly that pitch. This wasn’t an isolated incident either. Throughout April and May of last year, Lance Brozdowski and I chased Vlad everywhere we could. Sometimes we went alone, sometimes we met up, but the possibility of another vulgar display of hit tool was all we needed to keep coming back. I saw Vlad hit against righties, lefties, over the top deliveries, low three quarters, against guys who threw 90+, and junk ballers like Wynkoop. The results were always the same: 2-for-4 with a double, 1-for-3 with two walks, or a big night like this Friday night where he went 3-for-4, with a homer. All this to say, today will be the first time everyone gets to watch Vlad do his thing.
The Rankings
Vlad was number one in every list. In our Top 100, and in our Fantasy Top 100. Vlad is the alpha.
The Tools
Hit (80/80) - My colleague Matt Thompson has a saying and it’s spot on “If you don’t give Vlad’s hit tool an 80 you don’t give 80s.” He’s right, I haven’t seen many 70s in my life but Vlad’s better than a 70. Few marry contact, power, patience, and aggressiveness like Guerrero. He shares his father’s uncanny ability to make good contact on anything, but with the elite plate approach his father never showed. Countless times I’ve seen foul off pitches in order to force a breaking ball, or fastball, or whatever he saw standing in the on deck circle. Not many players are expected to hit .300 right from the jump, this one is.
Power (65/70) - This power grade might be a little light, because he certainly has 80 raw. The question I’m asking is; Could Vlad grow into a 40+ homer guy? In the current environment, I think he can, but I expect him to be in the 30-35 homer, with 40 doubles range early in his career. It’s really the combination of power and contact and his ability to drive the ball to any part of the park.
Defense (45/45) - This has often been cited as the reason Vlad has spent a little more time in the minors than he likely should have. It’s a meme at this point quite frankly. In reality he’s a solid third baseman with limited range. Lateral movement has never been an issue, as there’s sneaky athleticism despite the bad body. While it’s possible he moves to first, or even becomes a full time DH, I don’t feel it’s imminent.
Arm (60/60) - The one thing unquestioned in Vlad’s defensive profile is the strength of this arm. He can make every throw and make them with good zip and accuracy. The strength of his arm will help him stick at third base a little longer.
Speed (40/30) - Vlad can’t really run. He has little speed down the line, but will make a hustle play from time to time on a ball to the gap. He’s the definition of a station to station player, though at times he gets a little overly aggressive.
Conclusion: A generational player with a rarely seen combination of hit, patience, and power. Vlad Jr. has arrived. I could go on for paragraphs about what a great talent Vlad is. It’s easy this is a player capable of hitting .310/.400/.550 right from the jump.