Is this deja vu? The Nationals suffer an injury to a key position, available replacements haven’t been adequate and the team calls up a highly touted prospect quicker than we anticipated. In 2018, Juan Soto got the call and now it’s shortstop Carter Kieboom’s turn.
The Rankings
Kieboom is at the top of nearly every list he’s featured in. In the Nationals Top 30, he was #2. In our Top 100, he was #14, and in our Fantasy Top 100 he was #15. We also featured him in a player battles series versus Brendan Rodgers.
The Tools
Defense (45 field/55 arm): These grades are dependent on what position Kieboom is playing. The expectation is he’ll fill in for Trea Turner at shortstop, where Kieboom’s range is limited and his saving grace will be his arm. There’s some internal Prospects Live debate about whether it’s merely an average arm at the six or if there’s some 55 potential. Regardless, his defense is passable enough that it’ll likely mirror what Wilmer Difo was producing but not much beyond that.
Power (55 game/60 raw): Kieboom is the mold of prospect who can thrive with this new major league ball, enough to make it seem like he’s a consistent 25 home run hitter rather than the 18-20 one we envision. It’s a swing geared for loft but with a short, compact stroke that doesn’t sacrifice the inner part of the strike zone in order to make barrel meet ball. In the last year he’s worked on elevating the ball and he’s been successful.
Hit (50 present/60 future): Plus bat speed and pitch recognition, is there a more beautiful pairing for a hitter? Kieboom had an eye-popping 19 BB% in 18 games at Triple-A, which is far beyond his norm, but it’s allowed him to essentially hone in on the pitches he wants to drive. As such, of his 25 hits, 10 have gone for extra bases. At the highest level I expect his walk rate to be a touch above league average. Kieboom’s bat speed is going to let him catch up to heat and so long as he times his leg kick properly, that power is certainly following.
Speed (50 present/45 future): Kieboom’s swiped just 14 bases in 238 career minor league games, though it’s worth noting nine came in 2018. I always caution against looking too deeply at stolen base numbers in the minors because of the poor quality of catchers. The Nationals are sixth in stolen bases in baseball so there’s a chance he’ll be given the green light a touch more than we expect.
Prediction: Kieboom leaves Triple-A with a ridiculous .379/.509/636 line with an even more ridiculous .512 BABIP. In the non-Vlad division, this is the most exciting prospect to get a call up after Opening Day. If Kieboom performs as well as he can, the Nats have a tough decision to make once Turner returns. They might almost hope Brian Dozier continues playing poorly or force a utility role on one of them (which would sadly kill fantasy value for each). Add Kieboom in leagues 12 teams deep and up and consider spending 15-20 percent of your FAAB, especially if your MI position is shaky.