The 2025 season has kicked off and we've got data rolling in from Single-A up through the Major Leagues. That means it's time to dust off PLIVE+ and start rolling out updates!
NEW THIS SEASON: we'll be updating data every 2-to-3 days instead of weekly so that you'll get to see players rise and fall with big games and series. Additionally, those with daily pickups will have more routinely up-to-date metrics to look at.
Peak Projections
At the basis of PLIVE+ are Jordan Rosenblum's famous peak projections. "Peak" here is meaning at a prospect's maturity (age-wise). It does NOT mean the potential peak stats they could receive at their 100th percentile outcome. IE we will never project Elly De La Cruz to steal 70 bags or Junior Caminero to hit 50 bombs. The Peak Projections are very similar to a regular projection set you may find on Fangraphs. They look at the 50th percentile outcome of a player at their peak maturity given their career MiLB stats. This differs from traditional projections in that they project what a prospect will do in 2025, not, 2029 for example, when they are entering their prime season.
For hitters, the peak projection counting stats are per 600 plate appearances, however the PA column is the total career PA they've accumulated. Stats projected include BB%, K%, BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/ISO, wRC+, HR & SB.
PLIVE+ Metric
The metric PLIVE+ is the stat that ranks the Peak Projections in a meaningful order for fantasy purposes. It essentially combines wRC+, HR and SB from the peak projections into one all encompassing number. The most important piece of the equation being wRC+ which is the leading indicator for success at the major league level. Each "projection type" below, has different corresponding PLIVE+ numbers.
PLIVE+ is a "plus stat" meaning that it's framed around 100 being average. However, in our case a PLIVE+ of 100 is basically a replacement level prospect, or a non-prospect. There are around 550 hitters with a PLIVE+ of 100 or greater using the career peak projections. While players can be viewed across all MiLB, it can be helpful to filter to a single level to compare players at their competition level.
PLIVE+ Metric Type
In order to provide the greatest possible flexibility in finding and evaluating players, we have three separate PLIVE+ metrics to look over. Here are the basics on how they are constructed the unique strengths of each:
Career
Utilizes an entire player's MiLB & MLB career stats to develop the peak projection. These are the peak projections shown on the PLIVE+ page.
Takes age, level, total PA, park factors, etc. into account.
Strengths: Most accurate projections, especially as career PA grow. Most similar to a typical top prospect list.
Year (Single Season)
Only uses the given year's stats to develop a peak projection.
Takes age, level, total PA, park factors, etc. into account.
Strengths: Helps find the players performing early in the season. Works well if you want to remove prior years from consideration.
No Regression
Utilizes an entire player's MiLB & MLB career stats to develop the projection.
Takes age, level, park factors, etc. into account. Does NOT utilize total career PA (Reliability).
Strengths: Doesn't regress players with low career PA, which helps stack up the small sample performances of first time CPX and FYPD players. A good answer to the question: "If they were to continue to performing like this where would they stack up?"
Accessing PLIVE+ Peak Projections
Everything above can be found in our PLIVE+ App Suite that also contains our 1300+ Dynasty List, and 600+ Fantasy Prospect List and Dynasty Tools. It can be accessed at the Tier 60 subscription at $10/mo.
Now let's get on with a quick update on which players are standing out in PLIVE+ leaderboards. Today we'll look at hitters and next time around we'll take a look at pitchers.
Top 10 (Career PLIVE+)
Samuel Basallo - 173 (Highest level reached: AAA)
Roman Anthony- 170 (AAA)
Kristian Campbell - 168 (MLB)
Jasson Dominguez - 167 (MLB)
Emmanuel Rodriguez - 166 (AAA)
Lazaro Montes - 166 (A+)
Nick Kurtz - 163 (AAA)
Colt Emerson - 162 (A+)
Carson Williams - 161 (AAA)
Coby Mayo - 160 (MLB)
Samuel Basallo, 1B (BAL)
Much of this list looks similar to how 2024 ended. Samuel Basallo at the top spot is indicative of how well established he is at just 20 years old. Unfortunately he just hit the IL with a hamstring.
Nick Kurtz, 1B (SAC)
Nick Kurtz is the only player to make a big leap due to his performance early in the AAA season. At this point PLIVE+ views Kurtz among the elite hitting prospects in the game.
Coby Mayo, 1B/3B (BAL)
Coby Mayo remaining in the Top 10 is a testament to how well he has done outside of his MLB appearances. Still just 23 years old, Mayo will need to get back to producing if he wants to hold onto his status. Early in the season he's running a 68 wRC+ through 54 PA at AAA.
Top 10 (No Regression PLIVE+)
Nick Kurtz - 228 (AAA)
Robert Calaz - 204 (A)
Franklin Arias - 192 (A)
Emmanuel Rodriguez - 188 (AAA)
Kristian Campbell - 187 (AAA)
Austin Overn - 186 (A+)
Lazaro Montes - 185 (A+)
Roman Anthony - 181 (AAA)
Samuel Basallo - 181 (AAA)
Javier Mogollon - 180 (A)
In the list that doesn't regress players based on the amount of total PA they've accumulated, you'll notice some lower level players popping up who have had stand out numbers. Many of these players are likely to regress over time, but it highlights the players who have truly stood out in smaller samples.
Nick Kurtz, 1B (SAC)
When you don't regress Nick Kurtz, he stands among the best hitters in baseball next to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto (under Data Options, toggle on "Show MLB"). This is similar to how Wyatt Langford appeared by the time he was done making a joke of minor league ball.
Robert Calaz, OF (COL)
Franklin Arias, SS (BOS)
Both Robert Calaz and Franklin Arias were standouts on the Complex and in Single-A. Calaz obviously due to the power whereas Arias showed off a little bit of pop while nabbing 35 bases across 87 games.
Austin Overn, OF (BAL)
Austin Overn was dubbed by Rhys White as (potentially) "this year's Kristian Campbell" and it really makes me happy to see him popping on the no regression list here. Last season after being drafted in the 3rd round by the Orioles he got 15 games at Single-A then another 6 games at High-A. He ran like a mad man stealing 16 bases over those 21 games while also getting 9 extra base hits. So far this year he's added another 2 HR and 4 SB in his 6 games played. In total for his pro career: 120 PA, 3 HR, 20 SB, 16.6% BB, 27.5% K. Yes the strikeouts are a bit elevated, but he needs to be added immediately in leagues with 200 prospects or more.
Javier Mogollon, 2B/SS (CHW)
Javier Mogollon showed a lot of pop and speed in 180 PA on the Complex but ran a ridiculously high 38.3% K. However, in his first taste of Single-A over a very small sample of 23 PA, he's shown a reduced 21.7% K while already hitting a HR and registering 2 SB. Just 19 years old, Mogollon has a long way to go, but is yet another promising prospectin a rejuvenated White Sox farm system.
And let's finish up with the most fun list... the players standing out based on just 2025 small sample data.
