Brandon Smith and Tyler Jennings decided to combine their own live looks, with the likes of Trey Dombrowski, Florida State’s premier arms, and a focus on Wake Forest’s 2023 prospects included in this one. Buckle up, let’s dive in.
Trey Dombroski Left-Handed Pitcher (Monmouth)
4.0 IP 10 H 5 R 5 ER 2 BB 4 K (5/20/22)
Trey Dombroski had his toughest outcome of the year on Friday when he was hit hard by Canisius. Dombroski struggled with his fastball command which was very uncharacteristic when considering his profile. When taking into account his Cape and spring performance, Dombroski has proven to be an elite strike thrower with plus pitchability. The lack of fastball command led to a few heaters being left out over the heart of the plate and up, and were pounded by opposing hitters.
As Dombroski struggled to establish the zone with his fastball, his slider continued to play as an above average offering in the low 80s. The slider had sweeper characteristics as he generates above average lateral movement with the offering. He used the slider to both lefties and righties and generated over a handful of whiffs. He also mixed in a handful of curveballs which had a distinct shape in comparison to his slider. He rounded out his off-speed offerings by mixing in a few fringe changeups.
One concern surrounding his arsenal is his lack of fastball velocity. On Friday, his fastball sat 89-92 mph, which is on par with his season average. It is unclear if Dombroski is capable of adding more velocity once he is in a pro-ball. He does not grade out well athletically, which limits his projection long term.
One variable to consider when evaluating his late season clunker is his work load. Going into the conference tournament, he has pitched a career high 89 innings. His previous career high occurred last spring when he pitched 52.2 innings. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider that he may be experiencing a little bit of late season fatigue due to his increased workload.
Of note, Dombroski pitched with a lot of emotion as he let out an emphatic yell directed towards the Canisius dugout after he worked out of an early first inning jam. In the handful of outings I have seen dating back to the Cape, Dombroski has never shown that type of emotion while on the mound, which speaks to his competitive edge.
When looking at his 2022 performance, Dombroski performed as the mid-major version of Parker Messick. When stacking Messick and Dombroski side to side, both racked up the strike out total while showing well above average to plus command. Both have questions surrounding their long term projection when considering their athletic ability and velocity. When examining both pitchers' data, Messick and Dombroski’s arsenal are very similar in terms of movement profiles. The one difference between the pair of southpaws is their release heights. Messick releases at a well below average release height and creates lift with his fastball, whereas Dombroski has a well above average release height and generates good ride up in the zone with his heater. Messick may demand the higher signing bonus as he was a tremendous Power Five performer. That being said, Dombroski may fall into the 3-5 round range and may come at a bit of a financial discount when comparing him to Messick.
Brandon Smith
RHP Rhett Lowder
Rhett Lowder is an interesting pitcher that has excelled with Wake Forest this season. While the rain was giving everyone fits over the day, Lowder looked very solid. With a good pitch mix and excellent pitchability, Lowder could very well be a high-end pick in next year’s draft.
Lowder started off 93-95 MPH with a fastball that had solid arm-side run before settling in at 91-94 MPH as the outing went on. He did a good job commanding the baseball, though didn’t miss many bats with the pitch with just four whiffs on it. Most of the whiffs came from a solid change-up that he threw with confidence in the mid-80s and a slider with some sweeping action in the low-mid 80s. He showed a solid ability to pitch backwards often, particularly with the change-up. In total, Lowder accrued nineteen whiffs and threw 65% strikes. In the process, Lowder tied his career high with eleven strikeouts, recording his last seven outs in this fashion. It was an impressive outing.
3B Brock Wilken
B R O C K E T. That is all.
Wilken has proven to be one of the best bats in next year’s class. There’s no doubt about it. Wilken generates plenty of loft with his swing and puts backspin on the ball, spraying line drives to all fields with plenty of power behind it. Game 1 featured a three-Brocket™ day for the sophomore, with exit velocities reaching upwards of 109 MPH. It was an electric showing, though I do have some concerns about swing and miss with the bat, particularly on breaking balls away. He did show an ability to play quality defense at third base, but the arm is average at best currently. There’s improvements to be made, but nonetheless, Wilken is a great kid to watch and very easy to root for.
RHP Teddy McGraw
Another 2023 arm that Wake Forest has in their rotation, McGraw is an interesting prospect. He’s got the power stuff to be a legitimate arm, but he’s more of a ground ball pitcher than he is a strikeout machine.
The fastball for McGraw is a power sinker that gets up to 94-96 MPH to start and held 92-95 MPH throughout the outing with plenty of ground balls and weak contact to start. Command was off and on, especially if he was out of the stretch. The main off-speed is a plus slider with serious spin, upwards of 2700-3000 RPM’s, and sweep in the low-mid 80s. It got better as the outing went along, garnering a few whiffs towards the end of his outing. There’s also a firm change-up in the high-80s, touching 90 MPH to start with some fading action and he showed confidence to throw it to both lefties and righties. There’s a lot of promise here and he’s one of the best college arms in 2023.
RHP Carson Montgomery
Time to shift over to another series, but we shall stay on the theme of 2023’s. Carson Montgomery was one of my favorites arms in the 2020 draft cycle, but made it to campus and while he didn’t look too polished last year, he looks quite a bit better this year. That said, his outing this past Thursday was rough to start.
Montgomery held 93-96 MPH with the fastball all outing. The fastball acts more like a two-seamer, playing well low in the zone, though his command wasn’t the best, catching too much of the plate and leaving pitches middle-middle at times to be crushed. He seems to have added a cutter to his arsenal in the 89-90 MPH range to give hitters something different, though it’s pretty fringe-average presently. The slider is still as advertised, a sweepy beast in the mid-80s with average spin rates, but command hampered it throughout the outing. There’s also a firm change-up in the same velocity band as the cutter, though it was mainly relegated to just lefties. There’s more work to be done here, but he’s made good progress in the past year with the results. Hopefully, we will see more progress as we get closer to 2023.
LHP Parker Messick
Alright, time to travel back to the 2022 class for the two premier arms that Florida State has in the rotation. Messick is the pure definition of a bulldog, a tough competitor throughout his college career and finished second in the country with total strikeouts this year to Cal Poly’s Drew Thorpe.
Like Montgomery, Messick’s outing started off rough. Command was iffy at best to start, but got better as the outing went along. The fastball doesn’t have premium velocity, sitting 88-92 MPH before dipping down to 87-89 MPH late, but it plays up thanks to deception and solid riding action. The change-up is still his best pitch and man, it’s one of my favorites pitches in baseball right now. Of the eighteen total whiffs Messick got in his outing, at least eleven of those came on the change-up, which played in the low-80’s with serious fading action and was tough to pick up. He showcased both the slider and curveball, with shapes combining at times early. It’s a herky jerky delivery with reliever risk, but it’s likely that Messick fits somewhere in the second round this July.
LHP Bryce Hubbart
This was my first time ever seeing Hubbart, and you guessed it, the same woes that hampered his fellow starters got him as well. Hubbart only lasted an inning, but there’s qualities to like in his profile.
The velocity wasn’t very impressive, sitting 88-91 MPH throughout the outing with some command issues, but he’s got plenty of riding action to the pitch and it plays above the velocity. There’s good back foot abilities with the slider, a sweepy pitch in the 79-81 MPH range with spin rates upwards of 2600 RPM’s. He flashed the curveball at times, with roughly the same sweep as the slider, but had more depth to the pitch. The usual command seemed to have wavered for Hubbart in this start and his control was bad, with only 21 strikes across 41 pitches. Hopefully we’ll see a better outing from Hubbart in Charlotte for the ACC Tournament this week.
Quick Hits
Max Grant, 2B (Canisius ‘23)
Grant has found himself amongst the nations leading hitters all spring before cooling off over the last two weekends. Despite the small rut he is in, Grant still currently boasts a .400 batting average. The 6 '0 Grant is a left hand hitting middle infielder. Despite recording one hit, Grant reached base in three of his five trips to the plate. Grant has a knack for getting on base which is reflective in his .496 OBP on the year. His one hit came off of Trey Dombroski as he ripped a hard line drive single back up the middle and into center field. He works from an open stance and does an exceptional job of adjusting to pitches as they enter the zone, which is a credit to his barrel control. Grant punishes pitches in the strike zone as he has posted a respectable 84% contact rate. He has hit for power this season as he has blasted 8 home runs to go along with a 1.124 OPS. One area he could improve on over the next year is his plate discipline with breaking pitches. Defensively, Grant profiles more as a second baseman due to his limited arm strength and first step quickness.
Dixon Black, SS (Monmouth ‘23)
Toolsy sophomore shortstop, the 6’2 Black has an athletic build with room for physical projection. He has a quick compact stroke to the ball, with present bat speed. He has used his bat speed to his advantage as he has 7 home runs this spring. On Friday, he barreled an opposite field single and was hit by a pitch. Perhaps his most impressive tool is his defense. He demonstrated excellent lateral mobility as he made plays to his left and right. His most impressive play came on a hard ground ball when he made a rangey play to his backhand side deep in the hole and was able to set his feet and make a strong throw across the diamond to nab a speedy runner.
RHP Davis Palermo - Palermo is an intriguing relief prospect for UNC. He’s shown a velocity uptick, getting up to 97 MPH against Florida State, sitting 93-96 MPH with excellent riding action and life to the pitch. The slider has more gyro than sweep to it in the mid-80’s with a firm change-up. He’s older for the class and there’s not much track record for success, but he fits fine as a late Day 2, potential Day 3 pick.
INF Ben Metzinger - Metzinger is one of the best senior prospects in this class. He’s emerged on the scene as a power threat and has excellent discipline at the plate. He provides versatility, as well, playing all around the infield throughout his career. Expect him to go somewhere on Day 2.
C Dalton Rushing - Rushing has proven to be one of the best mashers in college baseball, with an average exit velocity of 95 MPH this year. That’s ridiculously good. There’s swing and miss to his profile and it’s tough to watch at times behind the plate, but it’s tough to ignore what he can do with the power in his bat. Expect him to be a high pick in July.
INF Mac Horvath - It seems as if Hovarth has finally gotten the handle on ACC pitching. He’s shown better plate discipline this year and started to mash. I still worry about the swing and miss a bit, but he draws plenty of walks and has shortened the swing. Defensively he’s pretty average, but enough to start him at third base at the next level. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore, so he’ll have leverage, but there’s a solid chance he could not return to school next spring.