This off-season, I’ll be taking a look back at past Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. This is the second in this series. I previously wrote about 2018 Bowman Draft and 2019 Bowman.
For those who are newer to collecting, Bowman Chrome hasn’t always been the home to all the top J15 prospects. That January 15 date wasn’t implemented until 2021 - prior to that it was July 2, so the International signees were mixed into both Bowman and BC the following year. This release contains a few of those, but it was Seth Beer who was on the sell sheet. There wasn’t a strong, Top 50 type featured prospect at release. Did that change over time? Let’s take a look.
THE TOP OF THE CROP
There are no names, even prospects, in this release who fit this moniker. Noelvi Marte and Orelvis Martinez could be shoe-horned in here as they both have autos with 1st Bowman logos in this release, but I wrote about them previously for the 2019 Bowman where they had base cards.
SOLID MAJOR LEAGUERS
Body shamers be damned, Alejandro Kirk is an All-Star and a bat-to-ball freak who’s developed his defensive game enough to be a Gold Glove finalist. He’s a really valuable real-life player for the Blue Jays. But offensively, he took a step back in 2023 as his power regressed to well below average, and quality of contact diminished. He still hit .250 with a .338 OBP, though! It’s more noteworthy for the hobby than anything – his status has taken a hit as he’s shown his true colors in his two years as a full-time catcher. But with a personality as endearing as his, there will always be a hobby floor for Captain Kirk. He’s not a star, but as close to one as this release has.
Cal Raleigh has cemented himself as a solid offensive-minded catcher over the last two years. In that span he has 57 HR – 11 more than any other catcher. That’s enough to keep him in the lineup alone, but he’s also an average defender at catcher – that’s a rare combination. It’s a good thing he has power and defense working for him, because he doesn’t have much of a hit tool, as indicated by his .287 career OBP. Hobby-wise, the position relevance to catcher matters much less. But like Kirk, he has an endearing personality that gives Big Dumper a hobby floor.
Patrick Sandoval is the best starter in this release, for now. Regardless of how negative his future outlook is, Sandoval has greatly outperformed his station as an 11th round pick, and has had more hobby significance than was ever expected. He was a #2 SP-type in 2022 – that’s quite a nice peak. But it’s pretty clear that what he’s been best at his whole career– command and inducing weak contact – degraded significantly this year. He’s still a solid lefty back-of-the-rotation innings-eater piece (for the Angels at least) that won’t get blown up often, so that will keep him a bit relevant for the hobby. But at 27, I would not expect a resurgence.
For the better part of 3 years, Michael King proved himself to be a valuable multi-inning reliever, and there was always the question – will he ever be the starter he was in the minors? This September he was finally given that chance, and he really made the most of it. In those starts he sported a 2.02 ERA with a 11.36 K/9 and just 1.77 BB/9. That’ll play. So now entering his Age-29 season he sits at a crossroads for the hobby where he could have some late-blooming significance, especially in the Yankees market. But there are a lot of questions to answer. Will he get to even 140 innings next year? Will he fatigue and become a pumpkin? They’ve said otherwise, but could the Yankees sign a few players and put King back into the multi-inning relief role? I don’t know if I’d be making the bet, but collectors have already begun to move toward the positive outlook on King – and there’s certainly a lot of ceiling left for his cards. He’s one of the most interesting hobby names to consider this offseason period, not just in this release.
Geraldo Perdomo made the All-Star team this year. He’s continually improved both offensively and defensively in his two years in the majors – it’s a great feeling to have that will let the Diamondbacks feel secure in their SS position, with Jordan Lawlar also in tow. Lawlar is no longer a threat to Perdomo being a MLB regular - it’s just a question of how the positions will shake out. So with that settled, I’ll say that Perdomo still has some potential to be better for the hobby than he is now. He has good speed that hasn’t translated to SB’s yet – but he’s only 24 so more could come. He went from a punch-and-judy 17 XBH last year to 30 this year. He’ll never hit even 15 HR, but there’s a legitimate dream of a .375 OBP / .400 SLG / 20 SB season at the SS position. That’s valuable for every team in the majors – but it’s absolutely just a middling hobby profile.
Bryan Abreu is one of the best middle relievers in baseball. It’s not really debatable – to put a point on it, he’s currently riding a regular season streak of 27 outings without giving up a run. With no hobby interest at large, he’s very easily collectible for Astros fans.
Conversely, the Twins’ Jhoan Duran has and will always draw hobby interest because of not just his splinker, but a devastating 3-pitch mix that’s regularly featured on social media. After the tease of him being a starter for a few years and then being groomed in the relief role, he’s also now closing games for a good team, which also helps his hobby standing.
OTHER MAJOR LEAGUERS
Outside of Sandoval, there are not a lot of starting pitchers in this release. I don’t know if I really need to say this, but even though he has been and will be pitching significant innings for the Rockies, Ryan Feltner is quite insignificant for the hobby. Roansy Contreras is a bigger name but he’s fallen so far that he’s fitting the same mold at this point. Shaun Anderson is a grinder who probably hasn’t seen the last of his time in affiliated ball, but after being released by his KBO team and signing with the Phillies, didn’t see the majors this year.
I mistakenly included Owen Miller in my last piece - he’s only in this Bowman Chrome release. To review, I think he’s a solid MLB contributor without much hobby juice. Seth Beer has autos in this product and base cards (without a 1st logo) in Bowman. He’s similar offensively to Miller but in a worse spot, as he doesn’t have a defensive home to anchor his value to a team – he didn’t see any time in the majors this year, and at 27 now, may not get back.
Garret Whitlock is an odd case. He had a fantastic year as a multi-inning reliever in 2021, which can never be taken away from him. But since then, he’s been miscast as a starter to begin each of the last two years. This year, even when he was removed from the starter role he was lacking in effectiveness. So, it’s a downward trend that’s never been particularly interesting for the hobby.
After making it to the majors as a 21-year-old starter in 2021 with the Yankees, Deivi Garcia has hit the worst-case scenario of his projection. It’s a big L for the little guys. He got hurt, was moved to the bullpen, and has since changed teams. Still, his profile has always been about his excellent stuff, and it remains so - there’s some high leverage relief potential, but with the White Sox, no thanks for the hobby.
I feel for José Devers. He was forced into the majors in 2021 at 21 when he wasn’t ready and struggled with the mental load of it all, and has also contended with injury in the last few years. He’s been performing to expectations through it all in 2022-23 though. Now entering his 24 YO season, for the future it’s more of a bench/infield utility profile than a MLB regular, and the Marlins system is crowded with such players. Abraham Toro and Payton Henry will be hanging around in backup roles for several more years in the majors. Eli White and Jared Oliva both have some MLB experience but are older sinking assets. All four of these players figure to not have any hobby significance remaining.
As he’s only thrown 25 innings since 2021, Luis Gil is completely out of sight & out of mind. This was always the expectation after a May 2022 Tommy John surgery. Before injury, he had leveraged his great fastball / slider combo with enough command to earn a few starts in New York, which were successful! Now after injury, it’s just much easier to say that he’s a relief arm, but he could eventually work his way into a higher leverage role. Even though he turns 26 next year, I think for the hobby if you can get in for next to nothing, it’s a worthwhile bet – especially considering his home market. I’ll also sneak Brailyn Marquez in here, who’s on a very similar path but has had an even longer road back. Konnor Pilkington still has a chance to be a significant RP but it’s a role that’s new for him, so for now he just wears the failed starter label. All three of these players have RC’s, so while they are still technically prospects, in hobby terms they are not.
Here’s a list of low-leverage relievers in this release with MLB experience. Some have a little potential to move up in the bullpen pecking order, some will likely not pitch in the majors again: Francisco Morales, James Bourque, Brandon Bielak, Carlos Hernandez, Edwin Uceta, Jorge Alcala, Mason Englert, Sam Hentges. That’s a lot. None of these guys are interesting for the hobby.
PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANCE
Alexander Canario is the most significant hobby prospect who’s entirely in this release (e.g. Noelvi Marte and Orelvis Martinez have autos but were in a previous release). It was surprisingly not a lost season after an awful ankle/shoulder injury in winter ball – Canario fought his way to a September cameo in Chicago. The book on him is that he’s a prototype RF power bat. He has a pull-heavy swing that generates excellent bat speed, but there are also a lot of holes in it – it’s lead to a K% that’s always hovered around 30 . He has matured overall as a hitter though, so there’s hope that his BB% will provide some offset to his offensive value. There’s still quite a low floor with Canario – it’s more likely he’s ends up as a part timer, but his ceiling is Adolis Garcia (with much less speed). Pretty nice for the hobby.
Debuting early in the year as fill-in, Brayan Rocchio’s time in Cleveland didn’t go well, but he was never given an extended run – it was three separate call-ups – and there’s nothing to read into about the high K% he showed. Rocchio is a contact-oriented hitter with a little bit of pop and an ability to play all three infield positions well. This has been his profile for years. It’s just been a matter of how much power he’ll eventually get to – that’s been trending downward to a ~10 HR peak projection. Still, this is a valuable piece to Cleveland’s infield future. Ignoring power, the only challenge that remains is his actually producing in some meaningful way at the MLB level offensively – one that he’ll look to meet in 2024. Hobby-wise, there’s fatigue in the way he’s teased those offensive skills, and that’s the taste in collector’s mouths at present. I think his floor & ceiling are within shouting distance of each other.
OTHER PROSPECTS
I love Leo Jimenez’s chances to have a significant MLB career at this point. I just don’t think it’ll be one that’s significant for the hobby. He’s essentially a light version of Brayan Rocchio. Jimenez is a patient hitter who’s great at putting bat to ball and finding the barrel, but there’s not much pop – it’s mostly singles. There’s enough of a hit tool to say that he’s already deserving of a bench role in 2024. But with a trade to a second-division team, he could get a shot at being a regular at either SS or 2B. Still, with no usable speed to speak of either, Jimenez’s hobby profile just isn’t that intriguing.
It’s been a very quiet ride for Wenceel Perez, but I think hobby-wise he has a better ceiling than Rocchio and Jimenez. It’s at the cost of a hit tool that’s a little worse, but Perez has legit gap-to-gap power. He’s also excellent at getting on base and pairs that with plus speed. Don’t get me wrong – he’s not a future star, but given a full run of AB’s in the majors I think he could go 10 HR / 15 SB / .350 OBP while providing positive defensive value at 2B or CF. For the nothing that he is in the hobby right now, that’s a pretty nice profile to bet on.
Miguel Hiraldo has some intrigue. It’s more likely that he’ll always strike out too much to ever earn a regular spot in a MLB lineup, but his tools, at best, are balanced with average projection across the board. The strikeouts are due to his aggressiveness as a hitter, but it worked more and more as the AA season wore on. From July 1 on he had a .296./.363/.519, with 20 XBH in 162 AB’s. Of course the flip of that is even with that success, his K% was over 30. For me, the kind of impact he’s showing at his best does not overcome that. He needs to really show out in AAA entering his Age-23 season to enter the discussion as a significant name for the hobby.
Moises Gomez mashed 30 HR in Memphis this year, but it was actually a significantly worse year than his 2022. In fact, because he doesn’t really have defensive value Gomez seems likely to be a quad-A type. He hasn’t had a sub-30 K% since 2018 and he’s already 25 with no MLB experience. Still, it’s very apparent that he has double-plus raw power so there will be some hobby interest unless his production falls off a cliff. I’ll also quick hit here that Livan Soto, Shervyn Newton, and Isaiah Gilliam had good enough years to not write off entirely but are very much longshots to have any impact in the majors.
It’s likely there’s no pitching prospects remaining in this release with hobby relevance. Adam Kloffenstein is the best SP prospect remaining in this release, but it’s only a backend projection. He’s a weak-contact maven that hasn’t quite perfected his command yet, but he should debut this year. Richard Gallardo has slowly been working his way toward the same projection as Kloff but had his season ended by an ankle injury in July. Tyler Phillips is a finesse arm who also may end up as a back-end starter, but he’s older and more likely to be a low-leverage, multi-inning relief arm.
Finally, Tim Tebow was never a MLB prospect. He was always a gimmick inclusion to this product, and his popularity hasn’t really waned since release. So, his card in this release is still quite collectible, and will remain so for Tebow’s contribution to the sports world outside of baseball. It’s fun! Collecting is fun!
SUMMARY
This is a rough release. Noelvi Marte has been the best name in this product since release, but his 1st Bowman content was split with the previous release. There are a few players who are or will be MLB regulars, but when all is said and done this entire checklist will probably total less than 20 All-Star appearances and have zero players in contention for the HOF. I don’t even think there’s even much debate in this regard.