Our second mock draft of the year starts college heavy and includes Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana and others at the top.
2024 Pre-Season Top 100 Prospects Led by SS Jackson Holliday
Introducing the pSTFERA Suite - a new set of predictive ERA-estimators based on the Stuff of a given pitch, put on an ERA scale.
Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between the Oakland A’s demonstrating a more aggressive approach, two relievers transferring into the rotation, and the debut of one of the league’s top pitching prospects, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
At the moment, it’s looking unlikely that the A’s will make the postseason. Will this mean the end of Matt Olson and Matt Chapman? Both are two years away from free agency, and certainly could be traded at any point given the organization’s history. That’s not what we’re trying to dive into today, though. For fantasy, what matters is the approach changes both have made this year, which follow a similar theme: more aggression. How this has affected each of these players, though, might not be equivalent.
Olson heading into the season was in a similar position to Chapman: good power and defense, but inconsistency when it came to batting average production. However, that’s completely changed this season. All of a sudden, the 27-year-old has become a natural contact hitter:
After never posting a strikeout rate below 24% in a full season, Olson is striking out just 17% of the time. The most encouraging part of this? It hasn’t come at an expense of power; his .274 ISO and 13.1% barrel are right on par with expectations. The key here? Where the contact improvement is coming from. Almost all of this contact improvement is coming in the zone (81.8%), as well as against fastballs (20.4% whiff); pitches that he can do damage against. I’d also note that his pull rate (39.5%) is the lowest it’s ever been, increasing his batting average floor even further.
All of a sudden, Olson profiles as someone who is going to hit for average, a lot of power, and, as a result, also score runs and accumulate RBI. Considering he’s still just 27-years-old, he has to be considered a top-30 dynasty asset moving forward. When you’re swinging and missing less and taking fewer called strikes, you’re going to strikeout less; that, as well as even sprays, are going to help your batting average. I’m all in on this improvement in his offensive profile, and would expect similar results in the upcoming seasons.
Matt Chapman, on the other hand, has a much more murky outlook. Yes, his defense is incredible and boosts his “real-life” value, yet, for fantasy, we’re hoping for high-end offensive statistics. Yet, we’re approaching his second straight season with a strikeout rate over 32%, while his batting average (.214) is a borderline liability. It’s unclear what led to the highest strikeout rate for Chapman, outside of struggling more on fastballs, but, regardless, we’re looking for him to produce enough in the power department to make up for it. On the bright side, it’s been much better as of late:
Through May: 9.2% barrel, .143 ISO
Since June: 16.1% barrel, .231 ISO
Since August: 20.2% barrel, .287 ISO
What has changed since then? Like Olson, it appears Chapman has embraced a more aggressive approach in the zone:
Through May: 65.4% In-Zone Swing
Since June: 71.4% In-Zone Swing
Since August: 73.7% In-Zone Swing
Chapman usually has been able to succeed with a more passive approach, but with the new contact issues, he cannot afford to take called strikes at the rate he previously did. I’m not sure what to expect from the batting average department, but he’s going to do MUCH better in the power department than a .198 ISO. The combination of power and consistent playing time remains enticing, while he gets a major boost in OBP leagues (12.7% BB). Regardless, his full-season results are probably doing him a disservice.
Honestly, my favorite part of the weekly dynasty notes, aside from all of it, is highlighting unheralded relievers in the “random relievers of the week” segment. Both Ranger Suarez and Carlos Hernandez have been featured in that segment, yet have ascended beyond that; both have been inserted in their team’s rotation. Yet, while Suarez has thrived in the rotation, Hernandez has not. What should we make of this? Let’s break it down.
The Phillies bullpen has struggled all season when it comes to finding a stable option in the late innings, which is where Suarez found himself. The 26-year-old totaled 11 saves during his time as a member of the Phillies, which is likely the main reason he was picked up in fantasy leagues. Yet, upon acquiring Ian Kennedy, Philadelphia moved Suarez into the rotation, and it’s astonishing how similar his results have been to when he was in the bullpen:
As SP: 24% K, 7.7% BB, 58.7% GB
As RP: 26.6% K, 8.9% BB, 63.5% GB
Less walks, more strikeouts; this all makes sense, but the change has been minimal. What has changed, though, is his pitch mix:
Since becoming a starting pitcher in August, Suarez has thrown fewer sinkers, and has increased his usage of off-speed pitches. This explains the fewer ground balls, though the arsenal is still strong. The lefty’s sinker induces a negative launch angle, while his fastball works more horizontally away from righties to induce whiffs (23.3%). The clear top two pitches, though, are the changeup and slider, which each have induced whiff rates over 40%. For what it’s worth, he’s having his best stretch yet in September, which aligns with decreased fastball usage. Should that pitch mix continue, you’re getting a pitcher who’ll induce ground balls at a very high rate and have a strong enough K-BB ratio. If that’s not someone you’re excited to have on your pitching staff, I don’t know what is!
Carlos Hernandez, on the other hand, hasn’t transitioned to the Royals’ rotation with the same success:
As SP: 15.8% K, 10.8% BB
As RP: 30.5% K, 12.7% BB
Hernandez’s command is slightly improved , albeit still not optimal, but the strikeout rate as a starter is a concern. This is a pitcher that, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic, essentially features four pitches rated average or better in stuff+. We’ve definitely seen his velocity decrease, while he hasn’t thrown his breaking balls as much in favor of more fastballs. I’d argue for more sinkers, per Sarris’ numbers, but, really, it all comes down to command. We’ve seen pitchers make that progression, but we’ve also seen some consistently hampered back by it. I’d look into stashing Hernandez based on potential for next season, though it’s very easy to see this end up as another “great stuff, poor command” scenario, a la Vince Velasquez and Jorge Lopez.
I’ll keep this short, but, in my opinion, Shane Baz is easily the best pitcher to debut this season. That’s right: better than Alek Manoah, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan, and Luis Garcia. First, there are Baz’s minor-league numbers in Double-A and Triple-A this year:
78.2 IP, 37.9% K, 4.4% BB
I’m sorry, what? Surely, he wouldn’t start his MLB career at such a high level:
10.2 IP, 36.8% K, 2.6% BB
Simply put, Baz’s arsenal is ridiculous. His fastball sits at 97 MPH, and features 2.6 inches of extra vertical movement compared to the average fastball with similar characteristics. Meanwhile, he also has a vertical curveball and well-balanced slider, two distinct pitches, in addition to a satisfactory changeup that he likely won’t need due to the prowess of his two breaking balls. Then, you add in elite command into that profile, which also likely means going deeper in games? This is a top-100 dynasty player, thank you very much.
I know this may seem soon, but what else does Baz need to prove? His fastball command is cited as not being a problem, which would be the only slight concern (vertical fastball, more barrels allowed), and there isn’t a single pitch in his arsenal that won’t miss bats; this decreases his volatility. Don’t overthink this; Shane Baz has all the makings of an ace, and you should feel comfortable valuing him at an EXTREMELY high level.
We’re down to the final weeks of the “random reliever” of the week part of the weekly notes. With that, let’s go out with a bang! These two relievers may succeed in different ways, but they should both be on your radar.
High-end lefty relievers are always coveted, which brings us to Francisco Perez. The 24-year-old posted a 38.4% strikeout rate between Double-A and High-A this season, earning his promotion to the MLB level. Originally a starter through 2019, Cleveland moved him to the bullpen, and are now benefitting from the results. Perez’ fastball sits at about 93 MPH, but it’s the vertical movement (1.6 inches above average). This has allowed to post extremely high pop-up rates in the minors, and is a pitch he’ll lean on heavily in the MLB. Meanwhile, the slider, also a vertical offering, mirrors almost perfectly off his fastball, and will likely be the pitch he goes to for a swing and miss. As a lefty, you’ll hope for more changeup refinement, but the fastball-slider combination is fascinating. Given his history as a starter, he likely can work multiple innings, and his lefty status increases his chances of playing a meaningful role in Cleveland’s bullpen next year.
The Angels weren’t buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, but they did make one small trade, shipping lefty Tony Watson to the Giants. The return included multiple relievers, yet the top reliever in the trade was Jose Marte. Similar to Perez, Marte was stretched out as a starting pitcher through 2019, and he’s transitioned to the bullpen quite well in 2021. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 36.5% strikeout rate and 2.21 FIP, and has continued to miss bats in his small sample size (4 IP, 27.8% K) in the MLB. For Marte, the arsenal all centers around his sinker. It’s a power sinker at 97 MPH that should miss more bats than the average sinker, but, most of all, induce ground balls and limit barrels. With a slider, cutter, and 4-seamer that he can elevate, it’s a diverse mix of pitches with different objectives, and I expect him to be an important part of the Angels’ bullpen next year
We discussed the need for Casey Mize to make a tweak last week, and that’s exactly what he’s doing:
This change is something to keep an eye on. More 4-seam fastballs would mean increased whiffs for Mize, but at the cost of some ground balls. I think it’s a sacrifice he may need to make - his splitter can help him still induce ground balls - as he’ll need to increase his strikeout rate to maintain a low ERA next season.
A deep-league sleeper? Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor. The 27-year-old performed at a high level in the minors, and has done well (104 wRC+) in the majors this season. His 8.1% barrel is adequate, but when it comes with a pull-oriented approach (43%) and a high-under% (30.8%), it’s clear that his .221 ISO isn’t a fluke. The power-speed combination here is very enticing, and he also doesn’t strike out a lot (21.8%). He’s definitely someone worth watching with Avisail Garcia set to be a free agent for the Brewers this offseason.
Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between a hyped-up superstar coming into his own, high-end outfielders heading in separate directions, and intriguing pitch-mix changes, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
When you’re labeled with an 80-grade hit tool and are labeled as a generational prospect, it’s expected that you reach your potential immediately in the big leagues. Thus, when Wander Franco posted a 65 wRC+ through his 66 first-half plate appearances, it’s understandable that many were disappointed. However, the “Wander Boy” has officially arrived; a superstar has been born.
Since the start of August, here are Franco’s overall numbers:
.310/.380/.551, 153 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .211 ISO, 7.6% BB, 8.9% K, 7.8% Barrel
Remember the elite contact skills Franco was cited having in the minors? Well, he’s showing it. Although his chase rate (32%) remains high, he’s now swinging in the zone around 75% of the time, which demonstrates an aggressive approach rather than an undisciplined one. Really, the greatest change here has been his success against fastballs.
The sample size in June is very small, but it’s pretty easy to establish a logical narrative here: Franco needed time to adjust to MLB-caliber fastballs, and he now has done that. Meanwhile, while he had been a complete liability vs righties earlier on, he has posted a .360 wOBA and 11.1% barrel rate as a lefty this month. Franco has officially taken off as a superstar player, which is fabulous to see. In fact, you could call it WANDERFUL.
Remember when Kyle Freeland was a Cy-Young contender and Brad Keller posted a 3.08 ERA in his rookie season? Those were good times. I don’t know about you, but I’d like to get back to those times! With recent pitch-mix changes, they might not be ALL the way back, yet they’re back to being productive pitchers, which cannot go under the radar.
Regression was expected from Freeland’s 2.85 ERA in 2018, which came with a 4.35 SIERA. However, no one expected him to post a 6.73 ERA, while his 15.1% strikeout rate in 2020 didn’t provide extra reason for optimism. With a 9.58 ERA, 5.92 SIERA, and 11.3% strikeout rate through his first five starts of the year, the 28-year-old had become a “do not start” pitcher regardless of the matchup. Since then, however, Freeland has posted a 24.2% strikeout rate and just a 4.8% walk rate. The big change? An increase to his curveball rate. He’s thrown it an extra 10% of the time, reducing his changeup and slider usage in that span. With a .133 wOBA and 39.5% whiff rate, the curveball has been an absolute weapon; it's also been inducing chases (40%) and ground balls (54.5%) at an elite level. Will this continue? It’s not ideal for evaluation purposes that he’s faced the Mariners, Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, and Diamondbacks during that span. However, he’s also held his own against the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres, and has been actually better at Coors Field this season. Right now, Freeland is throwing strikes, missing bats, going deep in games, and inducing ground balls; that’s an excellent combination! While his overall numbers still aren’t fantastic, make sure to add him or buy-low on him now!
As for Keller, the 26-year-old may have a 5.43 ERA for the season, but that doesn’t depict his skills properly. Since the start of July, he’s posted a 3.35 ERA with solid K-BB numbers (24.8% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate). What caused this spike in production?
Oh, I see. Before this season, Keller’s slider wOBA allowed has been .233 or under in every year; as opposed to his fastballs and changeup, it’s clearly a strong offering and obviously his best pitch. Similarly to Freeland, buy into his stock before the majority of the fantasy community notices the clear change in pitch usage.
In dynasty, three corner outfielders that are held in similar regard would be Michael Conforto, Austin Meadows, and Mike Yastrzemski. Believe it or not, despite having the lowest wRC+ (100) of the bunch, Conforto is the one I’m the most optimistic about moving forward.
Although Conforto has struggled this season, it isn’t exactly clear why. Well, outside of mostly poor luck. His .267 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 11.3 HR/FB rate, despite the fact his batted-ball numbers are all strong. In fact, he’s actually running the lowest strikeout rate (22%) of his career, in addition to fewer pop-ups (4.8%). The ballpark plays a role here, but as a pending free agent, this could all be fixed soon! If the opportunity presents itself, don’t be afraid to try to buy low on him!
With a 117 wRC+ and .221 ISO this season, it would appear that Austin Meadows was having a fine season for the Rays, which he has. However, I’m still a bit concerned about the 26-year-old moving forward. Since the start of June, he’s been a league-average hitter with a 99 wRC+ and .170 ISO, and, most concerning, just a 5.7% barrel. The problem? It stems back to same issues he had in 2020: not barreling fastballs.
Meadows has a clear issue when it comes to popping up fastballs, something he didn’t deal with in his peak 2019 season. During that span, his 12.5% barrel, 8.5% solid contact, and 27.1% flare/burner illustrated the perfect contract trajectory when it comes to hitting for average and power. However, with his bat path is getting under the ball (40.5% 2020, 37.8% 2021), which is depleting his ability to hit for average. Now, he’s more of a one-dimensional player geared for power, yet that part of his game hasn’t been great either. Not great, Bob.
Mike Yastrzemski, meanwhile, is similar to Meadows in that he is currently struggling, though his issues stem to only August- he’s posted a 55 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances this month (that’s a lot of 55s!). Obviously, its a small sample, but with just a 105 wRC+, Yastrzemski clearly has been a step down from previous seasons. The problem? Getting under the ball too much. His 32.4% under rate suggests that his swing is currently too steep, which hurts his ability to hit for average, though what concerns me the most is his struggles against lefties. He thrived against them for the first two years of his career, but he’s currently running a 54 wRC+ against southpaws this year. As someone who’s consistently struggled versus lefties, it appears the book is out on him:
Yastrzemski will get out of his current funk, but will he do enough to not profile as just a platoon player moving forward? I’m less optimistic. He’ll be on the right side of the platoon still, but unless he produces at an elite level against righties, it will be difficult for him to stack up volume statistics to stand out compared to other outfielders, especially in non-daily leagues. Plus, with the new trajectory. of contact, his fantasy value was already impacted by not hitting for average. He’ll provide you with plenty of power, draws walks, and plays all three outfield positions. For fantasy, though, he’s starting to become a one-dimensional platoon player, which is not ideal.
The Rays have a way for finding relievers out of a haystack, and it appears they have done so again with these two pitchers.
For the major cost of cash considerations, Tampa Bay was able to bring in Shawn Armstrong from the Orioles. Naturally, in his first five innings with the team, he’s struck out eight batters with just two baserunners allowed. With a vertical fastball that has thrived this year with a 34.2% whiff, he’s gone to it more often since joining Tampa Bay, and I hope he continues to do so:
Since joining the Rays, Armstrong has increased his average fastball release height, a clear sign of proper coaching and optimizing his arsenal; he’s throwing his cutter more down in the zone to limit damage as well. Now that his raw skills are meshed with the Rays’ pitching prowess, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 30-year-old morph into a successful multi-inning relief weapon. In Tampa Bay, that means a heavy workload with the potential to vulture wins, giving him intriguing fantasy potential.
Speaking of vertical pitchers the Rays have picked up this year, how about Louis Head? The 31-year-old was selling solar panels and assuming his career was over, but Tampa gave him a chance, and he hasn’t looked back. In 25.2 innings, he’s posted a 3.16 ERA and 27.4% whiff rate, and has worked his way into being trusted more and more in Tampa Bay’s bullpen. It’s a two-pitch mix with a vertical fastball (1.8 inches more than average) and slider (3.1 inches more than average), which works when both pitches are so successful. The verticality of his arsenal has done wonders for his trajectory of contact allowed, including a 49.4% under rate and allowing him to neutralize line drives, which may be an actually legitimate skill given his arsenal and allow him to overachieve his xFIP consistently. If he continues to see usage as an opener and in multi-inning stints, he also could be an interest asset for fantasy down the stretch this season.
Earlier in the season, I was quite high on Rangers infielder Yonny Hernandez, yet soured on him as he struck out more often and struggled a bit in Triple-A. Now, though, he’s up in the big leagues and has been exactly what I thought he’d been. As evidenced by his 3.9% swinging strike rate, opposite field sprays, and 36.2% flare/burner rate in his 58 plate appearances, he’s geared to hit for average, and will also steal some bases as well. This aligns much closer with the player he was throughout the minors, and it looks we can expect for him to be a unicorn in a game that continues to shift towards a high power/low contact style of play. He’s definitely someone undervalued I’d be targeting as a high-floor middle infielder with superb contact skills.
For what it’s worth, Josh Bell and Miguel Sano have each consistently cut down on their strikeout rate throughout the season. Hopefully this shows up with them becoming more valuable fantasy assets heading into next year.
A good buy-low candidate? Jeff McNeil of the Mets. His .275 BABIP and expected statistics are impacted by a 22.7% line drive rate, which is well below his career norm. I’d expect that to eventually regress positively and for him to start to hit for more average, with slightly more power as well.
It’s been a very difficult season for Spencer Howard, who has gone from a future staple of the Phillies rotation to trying to turn things around as a Ranger. He’s added a sinker now, but it’s hard to remain optimistic until he cuts down on his fastball usage and goes down into a game. For perspective, he has yet to go past four innings in a game, and the last time he even reached that mark was nearly two months ago. At this point, I’d understand selling him if someone still buys into his prospect pedigree
