The Seattle Mariners Have A Generational Opportunity In The 2023 MLB Draft

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One of the main storylines taking place within the 2023 MLB Draft centers around Jerry Dipoto and his Seattle Mariners. The M’s hold three picks (22, 29, 30) in the top 30 of the draft, presenting a rare and massive opportunity. So rare in fact, that Dipoto says in his 24 years of working in the draft, he’s never been a part of something like it. 

Dipoto shared some of his thoughts on Joe Doyle’s Overslot podcast, “To have three picks in the top-30 is exciting for us. Particularly excited because, frankly, this is an area of the draft that has been very productive for us. We feel like we’ve done very well in this general zone. The types of players that go off the board in the 20-30 range in the draft, are typically those that embody the criteria we hold in high value. We’re well situated to make these picks.”

He even went as far as to make a statement regarding a strategy they plan to employ. “We are likely to do something creative. We’ve tried hard to be creative in years where we’ve had a Comp B pick, but you need extra slot money to do anything…creative.” It’s clear the staff recognizes the opportunity at hand, expect them to be innovative with a freedom that isn’t typically afforded in this magnitude.

The instance is irregular in the fashion that the last time it did take place was back in 2016 when the Padres had the honor bestowed upon them. As we look back to those picks currently, San Diego walked away with two quality MLB starters. Albeit, both are no longer with the organization.

Quantrill helped land Mike Clevinger and Lauer brought over Trent Grisham and Zach Davies. Gone for the team but multiple guys who created immense organizational value. Which, in essence, is what the MLB Draft is all about.

It’s clear there’s a great opportunity at hand.

Picks and pool

One of the reasons this opportunity is so rare is because of how the M’s came to have these top picks. The first came through regular means. Pick No. 22 is their regular selection given their finish in the previous campaign.

The second came from an instance that is new to the MLB Draft. Seattle was awarded a pick at the end of the first round because of the new Prospect Promotion Incentive. Which is explained by the MLB in these terms, “If a player who was rated as a preseason Top 100 prospect by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and/or ESPN (at least two of the three) and was on his team's Opening Day roster goes on to win the Rookie of the Year Award, the club is awarded a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick after the first round.” Julio Rodriguez’ 2022 Rookie of the Year campaign fit the criteria and has been awarded to the Mariners immediately after the first round; Pick No. 29. 

The third pick comes in the form of Competitive Balance Round A, dealt to teams with the smallest markets or revenue pools. The M’s found themselves with the first pick within the competitive balance round right behind their Prospect Promotion selection. And to make the case even more advantageous for Seattle, both picks got moved up two spots because of some other team’s big spending. Both the Mets and Dodgers first-round selections were moved back 10 spots because they exceeded the competitive balance tax threshold by over $40 million. So what would have been picks 31 & 32 turned into picks 29 & 30. A non-zero value move that gives the M’s another leg up. 

What affords Dipoto the opportunity to get creative is the slot value allotment that comes with these high picks. And as of Tuesday April 4th, we now know what the slot values and bonus pools will be for the 2023 MLB Draft. It’s more than fair to say the Mariners are well situated.

Here’s the Top 10 courtesy of MLB.com:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates - $16,185,700

2. Detroit Tigers - $15,747,200

3. Washington Nationals - $14,502,400

4. Minnesota Twins - $14,345,600

5. Oakland Athletics - $14,255,600

6. Cincinnati Reds - $13,785,200

7. Seattle Mariners - $13,170,900

8. Miami Marlins - $12,829,600

9. Kansas City Royals - $12,313,500

10. Colorado Rockies - $11,909,800

Other than the Mariners, who check in at #7, every team on that list holds a pick within the Top 10 of the draft. And as we know the M’s first pick is outside the top-20. As far as the total bonus pools, the Mariners’ top 3 pick values combine to be $9,029,800; which is more than 12 teams’ total pool. You’ve heard me say it a couple times, but the opportunity at hand is nearly unprecedented. In large part thanks to the ever-rising slot values. The M’s hold the cards in the back half of the first round.

So, where do they go?

To know where they might go in 2023 we must look back to where they’ve gone previously under Jerry Dipoto & Scott Hunter.

They’ve nearly done it all since Dipoto took the reins in 2016. First it was college bats, then it was college arms, and in the last two years, it’s been high school bats. It’s fair to say they really don’t have a first round “type.” They identify the guy they deem fits their needs best for the given situation and run with it. To make an educated guess on a player they might draft would mostly be a shot in the dark. Dipoto and Co. are going to play the role of a wild card on draft night, but we can identify options they may have presented to them.

Scenario 1:

They float down prep. Blake Mitchell is a premium high-school catcher who can really swing it, while also being up to 97 MPH on the bump, so you know the arm strength is there. It’s solid athleticism and great makeup on an up-the-middle player. All these factors fit the mold of what the M’s have done with recent prep picks but also make him likely to go off the board in the area of the 15th pick. On the off chance Mitchell is still available around 17th or 18th, I think you see the M’s make some promises on the dollar amount they can match going overslot on pick No. 22.

With the two remaining selections I think you see a team that realizes a window opening up on the Major League side of things and looks to supplement that. Colton Ledbetter and Juaron Watts-Brown are players that are performing at power conferences within college baseball and could be semi-quick movers. Both of which should require slot or less at their draft position. College arms will be a mainstay of these scenarios because the organization has shown they have a pitching infrastructure they fully believe in. Expect a college arm to be one of the selections especially with the depth of that crop in this class.

Scenario 2:

In this scenario, they catch a falling prep. As I mentioned above, this is a team that has a window opening at the major league level for the first time in decades. They’ll look to grab some college players who can move fast. So in this scenario, they go grab Tommy Troy, a versatile, athletic do-it-all type of up-the-middle player. A true hitter who brings more than that to the table.

After that, they nab a premium prep hitter in Aidan Miller. Miller missed a portion of his high school season with a broken hamate bone in his hand. Before the injury, Miller was a fringe top-10 prospect. He’s even likely just a tier below consensus top-10 players in Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. Miller is committed to Arkansas and could get close to honoring his commitment unless a team like the Mariners can catch him at this position. It wouldn’t be the first time they nabbed a big-bodied 3B after grabbing Tyler Locklear and Tyler Keenan in recent years. It’s not an up-the-middle player, but we’ve heard their staff say they can afford to take on more risk this year. Miller fits the mold. 

Going over-slot to nab Miller at No. 29, requires them to go just a touch under-slot at No. 30 with Alabama LHP Grayson Hitt. Hitt is a projectible guy who has more recently tapped into his ceiling. Dipoto and staff have not been shy about getting arms in which they have identified deficiencies through biomechanical means. Knowing in turn they can make the necessary adjustments to tap into more. They get their college arm here and it’s an arm they believe they can mold into future value.

conclusion

When it comes time to turn in the card(s) this July, it’s hard to know where the Mariners will go. We can presume they’ll want to stick to their typical high-character, middle of the diamond, impact player. Odds are they will also nab a college arm to supplement the infrastructure they’ve built out as an organization. Above all else, as we’ve heard them say, expect some creativity.

When you have tenured GMs and scouting directors making remarks about never experiencing an opportunity like this in their career or even franchise history, it’s easy to understand the weight of the situation. And while three picks in the top-30 adds a little pressure, it also affords a ton of freedom and opportunity. Both of which the higher ups in Seattle are relishing as we speak. 

It will all come to fruition on Sunday, July 9th during MLB All-Star Week. Which happens to be where you ask? Seattle. A draft being held in Seattle, in which the hometown team will hold the cards for much of the latter half of the first round. The stars are aligning for what figures to be…

A generational opportunity.