Rank History
| Year | Team | Position | Team Rank | OFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | HOU | RHP | 5 | 50 |
Grades Update: Jan 2021
| OFP | Role | FB | CB | SL | CH | Cont/Cmd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 45/40 |
Jan 2021 Report
Evaluator: Geoff Pontes
Age: 22 yr
Height: 6-2
Weight: 203 lbs
Hits/Throws: R/R
Acquired: 2019 Draft, Round 5
RuleV: 2022
Physical Description: Tall with good strength throughout frame. Not overly bulky but strong. Shows good flexibility even if he's a little stiff in his motions. Should maintain a high baseline of fitness with minimal maintenance. Near max body at present.
Delivery & Mechanics: Starts in the third first base side of the rubber. Pronounced rocker step, before elongated pause. He then contracts into his leg lift and drive, getting good front leg extension following through from a classic three quarters slot. Long arm stroke with extra length at the backend extension. Similar motion to Ian Anderson, with less pronounced extension.
Fastball: Above average to plus velocity for a starter sitting 92-96 mph and touching 97 mph at peak. Commands pitch well to all four quadrants. Not afraid to go inside and work in on the hands of righthanders. Effective to his gloveside but with less precision than he exhibits armside. Made mechanical adjustments during summer collegiate ball in 2018 that led to an immediate up tick in velocity. Ditched two-seamer he used in college for exclusively four-seamers upon entering the Astros organization. Since that point it has paid dividends as Brown's fastball has been a consistent bat misser up in the zone. Enough stuff and command to play at plus. Grade: 60
Curveball: Brown began throwing the curveball in game upon the Astros request. While it was not a brand new pitch to him, it was mostly used in bullpens and side sessions prior to 2019. Since then the pitch has progressed tremendously seeing usage on par with his slider as the 2019 season came to a close. The confidence he has in throwing it shined through, and for good reason. It's a hard-breaking, bat misser; a high spin pitch with significant vertical drop in the 80-84 mph range. It's a hammer by all accounts. We're taking some liberties here but reports indicate this is at minimum an above average pitch. Grade: 55
Slider: Sweepy slider at 84-85 mph touching 86-87 mph at times. Hard breaking pitch that he can bend through the backdoor. Good feel for the zone but inconsistent shape, some of which might be by design. His best shape is a high spin efficiency version with a near 9 o'clock spin axis, meaning it moves perfectly sweepy. This style of pitch is not typically conducive to swings and misses, but Brown's above average velocity allow it to play. Grade: 50
Changeup: Clear fourth pitch, but a steady part of his arsenal dating back to his amateur days. Average velocity in the 80-82 mph band, giving him good separation from his fastball. Limited feel for pronating, inconsistent arm side run. Will show average or better shape frequently enough to earn a fringe average grade. Astros asked Brown to throw more changeups in 2019, and based on the results the pitch ultimately was effective despite its inconsistencies. Grade: 45
Control and Command: Below average command profile with fringe average control. Learning the best way to deploy the entirety of his arsenal from a sequencing standpoint. Limited exposure to high level talent due to division II college background. Struggled at times to adapt to a higher quadrant plan of attack and newer points of emphasis within his sequencing (curveball and changeup) early in his professional debut. This is best exemplified by his walk rate of 24.6% over his first six appearances with Tri-Valley. Over his final six appearances from August 2nd until September 1st Brown settled in, dropping his walk rate to a respectable 8.9%, accompanied by a jump in strikeout rate to an elite 42.2%. Now to be clear we're talking two 12 inning sample sizes, but it's a clear example of a step forward in stuff. Fringe average control with below average command. Control: 45 | Command: 40
Overall: Arguably Houston's best pick of the last several years; plucked from Division II Wayne State, Brown took tremendous strides under the tutelage of the Astros player development machine. He improved his fastball shape and plan of attack toward a style more conducive to missing barrels in pro-ball. He improved and deepened his secondary offerings, adding a potential plus pitch in his curveball, while simultaneously committing to using his changeup in uncomfortable counts. The growth even within a short sample has been tremendous. Reports from the summer and fall back up these claims squarely positioning Brown as a potential breakout candidate in 2021. A starter's body and arsenal Brown has taken strides to improve his feel and command leading to encouraging results. Whether this holds true through his first test of full season ball is another question. Realistic Backend starter profile with the upside to slide into a mid-rotation OFP by the end of 2021.
OFP: 50
Role: 50 - #4 - #5 SP or Average High-Leverage Reliever
Risk: High
