On Friday we released the first PLIVE+ update of the season. I gave a brief overview of the PLIVE+ metrics and peak projections, then covered the top 10 hitters across each of the three leaderboards. Check it out here if you missed it and/or need a refresher on PLIVE+:
I got fresh data with games updated through 4/11/25 and we're going to run through the Top 10 pitchers on the PLIVE- leaderboard for Career, No Regression, and Year. And yes, that's a minus, not a plus, for pitchers. PLIVE- looks to mirror the stat ERA- which means the lower the number, the better. Similar to PLIVE+, a 100 PLIVE- projects a player as a replacement level pitching prospect (or non-prospect).
As you may expect, the pitcher rankings change much more quickly than for hitting prospects. Additionally, some organizations and players may be more focused on development than results for pitchers. Often pitchers are directed to throw a pitch more than they actually would if the results really mattered. Or they are held to a strict pitch count which they cannot control. For this reason, I like to utilize PLIVE- in a way that identifies undervalued and breakout pitchers instead of using it to cross pitchers off my list. An example would be Jackson Jobe who has never ranked among among the elite on PLIVE- despite being our 4th ranked player on our real-life Top 100 Prospects List.
Top 10 (Career PLIVE-)
Chase Dollander - 74 (Highest level reached: MLB)
Kumar Rocker - 76 (MLB)
Jack Leiter - 77 (MLB)
Zebby Matthews - 78 (MLB)
Noah Shultz - 78 (AA)
Quinn Mathews - 79 (AAA)
Matt Wilkinson - 79 (A+)
Logan Henderson - 79 (AAA)
Bubba Chandler - 81 (AAA)
Noah Cameron - 81 (AAA)
*Skipped Mason Montgomery because he is now a RP but qualifies as SP because he's thrown over 2 IP/G for his career.
Four MLB debuted arms who remain prospects rank at the top of the career list and that's no surprise as you get credit for performing at higher levels.
Chase Dollander, COL
Dollander has performed at every step along his journey to the majors and had an impressive big league debut last Sunday. It's important to note that PLIVE- is context neutral and does not consider the fact that Dollander plays for the Colorado Rockies. The last hyped Rockies SP who came out of the draft was Jon Gray who was taken 3rd overall in 2013. Injuries held Gray back, but he still had a 3.80 xFIP and 3.91 FIP during his Colorado tenure. Unfortunately the 4.59 ERA results highlighted his ultimate struggles. It's yet to be seen if Dollander can beat the odds and conquer Coors Field but historically, outside of a couple miracle seasons from Ubaldo Jimenez and German Marquez, the answer is no.
Kumar Rocker, TEX
Jack Leiter, TEX
The Vanderbilt, and now Texas, duo have both made jumps over the last year in an attempt to fill their draft potential. PLIVE+ loves their velo, Stuff+ and recent history of performance in AAA and the majors. Jack Leiter specifically has shown incredible potential early this season before suffering a blister. Kumar Rocker showed it at the end of last year but his first two starts of 2025 have been uninspiring.
Zebby Matthews, MIN
Zebby flew up the rankings last season and then had a 9 start MLB debut where he allowed 2.6 HR/9. Entering the season he's had buzz due to increased velo in spring that he's held into his first starts back at AAA. Among the pitchers on this list, Zebby Matthews is the one I'd say is most likely to become an Ace.
Noah Shultz, CHW
Schultz is the only pitcher to make the Top 10 while in AA. He's been well covered here on the pro side and dynasty side, and at this point the only question that remains to be answered is if he can get stretched out and consistently throw 5-6 innings. To this point in his career he's maxed out at 4 IP as he did in his first start of 2025. PLIVE- scores utilize an ERA regressed to a baseline of batters faced per game, and if it didn't consider that, Shultz could be #1 on this list.
Quinn Mathews, STL
Mathews was a standout on PLIVE- very early last year and maintains a Top 10 ranking despite a slow start to the season. In the Daily Sheet that went out yesterday, Mathews' recent start was covered and it was a stinker, dropping him 4 spots in this ranking. The velo is down and that's an issue. We need to keep an eye on him.
Matt Wilkinson, CLE
You either are, or are not, a Tugboat believer. The K-BB% has been unbelievable to this point and it's the sole reason he's the only player from High-A on this list. He's started the season back in High-A and we'll just have to wait until the upper levels will play out for him.
Logan Henderson, MIL
Henderson is somewhat similar to Wilkinson in that the high minors were going to be a proving ground for him. He exceeded expectations, but also left a big question mark to his profile. The home runs are a real concern as he ran a miniscule 25.4% GB last season while giving up 1.4 HR/9. The Brewers has avoided calling him up to the point of trading a prospect and a comp pick for Quinn Priester. It's not to say that Henderson won't end up being good, but he's far from being a slam dunk useful MLB starter.
Noah Cameron, KC
Cameron has been hanging around the PLIVE- leaderboards for a little while. He made some strides last season, but this spring he had a velo bump but per TJ Stats Pitch Plots Statcast app, that's pulled back as he's averaged 92.8 mph with the FB in his two AAA starts in 2025. There is still a useful future big league pitcher here, but more likely a back-end starter without a bump in stuff.
Top 10 (No Regression PLIVE-)
Kumar Rocker - 68 (MLB)
Jojo Ingrassia - 70 (A+)
Grant Taylor - 71 (AA)
Noah Schultz - 73 (AA)
Hagen Smith - 74 (AA)
Zebby Matthews - 75 (A+)
Matt Wilkinson - 75 (A+)
Connelly Early - 77 (AAA)
Chase Dollander - 79 (AAA)
Will Warren - 79 (MLB)
*Skipped Jacob Waguespack because he is now a RP but qualifies as SP because he's thrown over 2 IP/G for his career.
The no-regression PLIVE- doesn't regress stats based on how many innings they've thrown in their career, so it's helpful in identifying who's standing out in small samples.
Jojo Ingrassia, BOS
Ingrassia put up a 31.1% K-BB and a 52% GB last year across 58.1 IP in Single-A. He also started off the 2025 season strong with a 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K start in High-A. Rhys White highlighted Ingrassia in the Red Sox Honorable Mentions as he had missed our Red Sox Top 20 Prospects List. Rhys mentioned the fastball in particular as the reason he didn't make the list:
He didn't warrant a report because of the fastball, but with an entire offseason of training, there's a chance he gets that fastball up to the mid-90s, and that's his easiest path to making the Top 20. Ultimately, he might be a piggyback starter or bulk reliever, but if he's humming that fastball at 93-95 mph, he becomes a different prospect. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the shoulder inflammation, which isn't encouraging.
He's only registered 2.9 IP/G thus far so we'll need to see how he does as he get stretched out and into higher levels. The RedSoxPlayerDev account on Twitter highlighted Ingrassia's first start and they posted a max FB velo of 95. It'll be interesting to see if he'll be able to hold that velocity throughout the year.
— Red Sox Player Development (@RedSoxPlayerDev) April 8, 2025
Grant Taylor, CHW
Noah Shultz, CHW
Hagen Smith, CHW
At this point you already know about this trio of White Sox pitching prospects in AA. Grant Taylor shot up the PLIVE- leaderboards quickly last season as he through 19 innings walking just 2 and striking out 32. He's kicked off AA with a 3 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 3 K outing. Hagan Smith has also only thrown a total of 11.2 innings in his minor league career. His first AA start he went 4 IP, 0 H, 1 ER, 4 BB and 10 K (last night he couldn't get through the 1st...). There is an outside shot that Hagan Smith makes his big league debut in mid-season. However tt's likely that they all get a bit more seasoning. Either way, if all remain healthy we're looking at a potential dominant rotation in the south side of Chicago as soon as next year.
Connelly Early, BOS
The Red Sox lefty put up a 54% GB while also running a 30.8% K across High-A and Double-A last season. He's back in AA to start 2025 and struck out 7 of the 14 batters he faced in his first start. Not dissimilar from Ingrassia, Early doesn't have remarkable velo. However, RedSoxPlayerDev to the rescue again, he ran it up to 94.8 mph in his first outing. At this point I think we need to give a bit more attention to both Early and Ingrassia.
