This off-season, I’ll be taking a look back at past Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. This is the third in this series. I previously wrote about 2018 Bowman Draft, 2019 Bowman, and 2019 Bowman Chrome.
Is 2019 Bowman Draft the best Bowman release of the past 20 years? The Draft itself looks incredibly good, and the top names from it are all in here except Bobby Witt Jr. and Anthony Volpe. As you’ll see it runs deep with both star power and role players (who can be fun to collect!) both now and for the future. Buckle up, there’s a lot to digest here.
THE TOP OF THE CROP
Corbin Carroll has been a hobby favorite since he burst into the pro ranks, but his status took a bit of a hit due to the lost 2020 season, a shoulder injury after just a few games in 2021, and the old stand-by thought of his power not being real due to his smaller stature. Those who thought that were wrong, clearly. Carroll was eased into action in 2022 but really exploded this year, earning a unanimous Rookie of the Year award and finishing fifth in MVP voting. He’s the first rookie ever to go 25 HR / 50 SB, and only Mike Trout has been close. He was the leader of a Diamondbacks team that made the playoffs. He even finished in the top 15 in batting average! There’s simply nothing to dislike about what Carroll has done, and I’m excited to see what he has in store for his sophomore campaign. He’s very clearly a hobby superstar - I regret getting out when I did (as are many, I’m sure).
Sometimes, it’s just as simple as buying into the best talent in the draft at the time of the draft, as is the case with Adley Rutschman. There’s been no concerns about anything in Adley’s game – through his first two years in the majors he’s shown himself to be the four-tool talent we all thought he was. He’s above average everywhere and still growing, which is really something to say for a catcher who’s earned MVP votes each of his first two seasons. He’s clearly been one of the best names in the product since release so it’s hard for his cards to explode in value, but if he keeps up what he’s been doing they will see a slow continual rise.
The Orioles really knocked this draft out of the park. Gunnar Henderson was taken as an Alabama prep and rode his 2022 breakout all the way to the majors in short order. The reigning unanimous AL Rookie of the Year was great in 2023, smashing 28 HR and scoring 100 runs in an unexpectedly good Orioles lineup. There’s work to be done with his hit tool, but his K% was mostly in check – keep in mind Henderson is only 22. Interestingly enough, Gunnar’s base autographs in 2019 have an abnormally high print run - there are currently over 750 PSA-graded copies out there, so be patient! You can always get the next one. There’s potential for growth yet too, especially in his numbered autographs and base cards and parallels.
Bryson Stott showed some pretty massive improvements in his sophomore campaign. He cut down his strikeouts, improved his power, stole 30 bases, and showed enough of a hit tool to prove he deserves to be in the top or middle of the Phillies lineup every day. He also showed great improvement defensively and was a Gold Glove finalist at 2B. Power is never going to be a major part of his game, but getting to high teens in peak seasons should happen. That limits his hobby ceiling, but it’s now easy to see this is a player that should play in a few all-star games and remain a team mainstay for years to come. He’s squarely an above-average major leaguer with hobby status to match.
With Alek Manoah’s struggles, George Kirby is now easily the top pitcher from this class. He is definitely a worthwhile hobby name after following up a 6th place ROY finish in 2022 with a 8th place Cy Young in 2023. Simply put, he’s a control freak (2.5 BB% in 2023) with an impeccable feel for pitching. He does it with a well developed 5-pitch mix that he uses to keep hitters frustrated – there’s not a single pitch he uses as a put-away offering. As his fastballs average 96 MPH. he’s not completely a finesse arm but he’s looking for outs, not strikeouts necessarily – so that hurts his hobby ceiling a bit. Kirby is the type of pitcher who should remain who he is for years to come – there’s no red flags anywhere in his profile. As he looks to eclipse 200 IP for the first time in 2024, I would expect slow growth in his cards. There’s not much potential for explosion.
SOLID MAJOR LEAGUERS
CJ Abrams was rushed to the majors. That’s the long and short of it, and that bad taste still lingers in the mouths of many collectors. He did show some moxie in the second half of 2023 when the Nationals put their faith in putting him in the lead-off spot though. His stat-line stayed almost identical in that higher pressure spot, except his SB totals, which exploded – he ended up with 47 swipes on the year. Now, a .300 OBP won’t cut it for a lead-off hitter on a good team, but the Nationals aren’t that, so Abrams has time to grow with them as they build back into contention. His 18 HR coupled with that blazing speed will always draw hobby interest – if he can channel his July stat-line where he put up a .327/.391/.500 slash, well, he’s a superstar. There’s a lot to like, just no indication he’ll ever be consistently good…yet.
Ah, the curious case that is Riley Greene. His rookie year was delayed by a broken foot then a little rough around the edges, but at just 21 for most of that year, it was expected. So we’ll look to his 2023 season for a better snapshot of his potential. After a slow start, Greene was great in May, then injured his leg, came back and was great again, then went into a slump then hurt himself on a diving catch, eventually undergoing TJ surgery on his non-throwing elbow. So what does that May to mid-August stretch look like? How about 235 PA’s of a .338/.400/.545 slash. That works, right? Within that is a 25 K%, so over the course of the season it’s probably not sustainable – but it’s still a beautiful ceiling to dream on. Greene is being shifted to corner OF moving forward, where he should be a quality defender. The Tigers are counting on him being a core piece of their future. Collectors have always been keen on him, and it’s really easy to understand why – he could be a .300 hitter with 25 HR annually fairly easily – he just needs to stay healthy.
What a year for Spencer Steer. The Reds’ rookie cemented himself as a lineup mainstay by playing four different positions with regularity – 53 starts at 1B, 42 at 3B, 24 in LF, and 13 at 2B – talk about making yourself useful. He was equally impressive with the bat, smashing 63 XBH and posting a .356 OBP (which was top 30 in the majors). I think there’s probably some real-life regression coming for the now 26 year old, but it’d be foolish to think he’s worse than an average major leaguer on his head, and the sum of his parts is greater than that. He’s projecting as the Reds’ #3 hitter this year, for what that’s worth. There’s a little bit of hobby love for Steer out there, but it’s not particularly strong, so if you like what you see in him and how versatile he is for his team, go for it!
Going into 2022, Josh Jung was set to compete for an Opening Day roster spot. Then he hurt his shoulder very early in Spring Training and missed most of the year. It was a lost season in total but he did work his way up to the majors, which prepared him for a full time role in 2023. The results were pretty good, though they were disrupted by a thumb injury. He put up 23 HR with a decent batting average in 122 games – it’s good enough to expect 30 HR in the near future, especially if he stays healthy. He’s an aggressive hitter that doesn’t walk much, and there are strikeout issues because he chases and whiffs too much, but it’s usually quality contact when he connects. There’s probably a bit of maturation coming yet. In that talented Texas lineup, he’ll remain in the 5 hole or lower until that maturation comes, which should keep his counting stats lower. There hasn’t been much change in demand yet as he’s kinda just doing the things expected of a player of his station. Jung has a lot more hobby upside than Spencer Steer, as current prices dictate, but he’s probably just a few years from getting to it.
Andrew Vaughn was one of the first players from the class to reach the majors, but he’s yet to prove himself in any significant way, in any aspect of the game. Finally given a chance to play his natural position at 1B this year, he was below average defensively. Coupled with an average hit tool that stepped back from 2022 and just average game power, there may be some pumpkining already. It was his hit tool coupled with supposedly above-average power that got him drafted 3rd overall, but so far that’s just played as having decently low K totals – that alone has kept him in the top 6 spots in the lineup. He’s certainly not been the offensive dynamo he was expected to be. With as much MLB experience as he has and being 26 in April, I don’t think there’s any huge leaps to be had, but he doesn’t really need it. Making the small leap to .270 BA / 25 HR would keep him in the middle of the lineup for years to come. It’s just less significant for the hobby than expected.
Fight me on Matt Wallner not deserving to be here. Dude put up a .370 OBP and .507 SLG in his rookie campaign. Did he strike out too much? Sure. It’s always been a part of his game, but as long as he’s making enough contact, it’s going to be quality. He’s a strong side platoon DH / corner OF bat who should see enough AB’s to hit 20-25 HR annually as long as the erstwhile offensive value stays. His career beginning around the introduction of the universal DH should be a boon for him and his status in the hobby, where he should continue to have middling interest.
I’m defaulting Alek Manoah to here. I don’t know what to believe. The rule of threes says he’s still good, right? His awful 2023 didn’t seem like a fluke though, and the hobby has rightfully cooled on him - but not entirely, so there’s still time to get out if you want. How did he get here? Always a highly regarded arm in the class, he followed up a solid rookie campaign with a sophomore campaign where he was a Cy Young Award finalist in 2022. In 2023 everything flipped to it’s reciprocal. Bizzaro Alek’s troubles were caused by a few things - mechanical inconsistency & lack of aggression. Manoah was sent down to the minors to work on these things, but the results weren’t great. Never have we wanted a player to get away and reset his mind. The numbers saying he’s lost velocity on his fastball and movement on his slider aren’t a lie either - hopefully they just rebound when his mechanics get fixed. If you sell now you’re selling low, but we may not be at a nadir.
OTHER MAJOR LEAGUERS
Nick Lodolo had a great rookie campaign in 2022 – sporting a 3.66 ERA and 11.41 K/9, he was primed to be a rotation mainstay in 2023. Of course, that didn’t happen because he went down to a stress fracture in his leg that he re-aggravated in rehab. His 7 starts this year A) look worse because there were two blowup outings and B) may have been affected by his injury. So I’m choosing to call his 2023 season just completely lost. So what should we expect in 2024? Well, my putting him down here and not in the category above should tell you to temper expectations. I think the Reds will likely ease him back into innings, having him fill out that back of the rotation even though his superb command and control dictate he’s better than that. And there’s still the big if of staying healthy now. Optimistically, he throws 120 innings this year that mirror his 2022 numbers – and really, how high does that get him for the hobby? Not very, I expect. I think he’s a hold for 2024, with a hope that he builds into a true mid-rotation piece for 2025. That would put him squarely in the tier above, which has been the expectation with Lodolo since he was drafted.
Does Jared Triolo deserve to be in the tier above? I don’t think so. A good defensive 3B, he’s not better than Ke’Bryan Hayes so it’s a utility role or AAA to start 2024. Though the .388 OBP in his 54 game debut is a useful line no matter what, it comes with a bloated K% he didn’t have before 2023 and less pop than he showed in past years. It’s like he sacrificed his average power to prove he has some sort of usefulness to the big league club. Mission accomplished, but it comes at the cost of now being seen as a replaceable part for now, both in the hobby and to the Pirates, which isn’t a good team context to begin with.
Brett Baty had a rough rookie year but still has a bright future as long as he tweaks his swing to bring out more of his natural power. As an older 2019 prep it was fair to bring up a highly touted prospect of his station for a full time role in 2023 – he was 23. I think the Mets would have taken his numbers from the first two months of the season as a positive if could have continued it, but from June 1 on he hit under .200 with little power in the majors. He was demoted for the month of August and when he came back up, still wasn’t great. Expected to be back with the Mets to begin 2024 as of now because of fallout from the Ronny Mauricio injury, I don’t see imminent success. He’ll compete with Mark Vientos, Joey Wendle, and Zack Short for playing time. He has a better offensive ceiling than all of them for sure, but hitting the ball hard at an above-average clip isn’t enough to be a lineup mainstay. He needs a more optimal launch angle, and that’s not such an easy thing to figure out when his K% is already near 30. It’s an issue better figured out in the minors, but the Mets may not have that luxury. He’s definitely a hold for the hobby right now. With continued struggles he would be a buy – keep in mind he’s only just turned 24, and players with his raw power are rare.
Shea Langeliers is showing that he just fits the everyday catcher with pop mold. He’s touted to make his bread on defensive value, but he hasn’t proven himself to be better than average in that regard yet. Still, he has a long runway with the A’s, and he’s their best power bat after Brent Rooker. That’s really saying something about the A’s, because Langeliers had just a .413 SLG with 23 HR in 2023 – there’s a ton of swing-and-miss, and poor quality of contact in his game. Unless he can cut down on that, the low average and OBP will continue. It’s a pretty terrible team context as well, so with hobby status still having a touch of residual bloat from being with the Braves and being the 9th overall pick, it’s an easy sell for me.
Though he improved his strikeout numbers significantly, JJ Bleday’s second year in the majors wasn’t a huge improvement. He’s a mature hitter that works counts well and he doesn’t chase, but he also hasn’t found his groove with the barrel and should he ever get to it, his natural power is really just above average. The result is a below-league average platoon bat for a bad team. If he ever figures out how to make more consistent hard contact he’d play as an everyday LF, but it’s only a 20-25 HR, .250 BA ceiling. Not really something we expected when he was taken 4th overall. Like Langeliers, his team context is bad and he still carries some bloat from being a high pick. Sell if you want, but unlike Langeliers, I’m willing to wait a little longer to see if there’s a little bump before I go that route.
Not a prospect anymore but largely forgotten in AAA, Kyle Stowers has been a bit of a disappointment. With the depth of the Orioles system and having to compete with Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser to maybe sneak into a bench role, there’s not a clear path back to the majors either. He probably needs a trade to see time in the show moving forward, but is he even worth it? He put up a .245/.364/.511 line with a 27 K% in AAA in 2023 – that’s some nice pop but it doesn’t exactly scream call-up. In fact, it’s a step back from what he did in 2022. He might just be better suited to see if he can figure it out in the minors. I would be a seller on Stowers at this point at any price.
Brandon Williamson is a finesse lefty who figures to be a #4-5 SP for years to come – he doesn’t have a great hobby ceiling. He gets it done by limiting hard contact with good command and an excellent change. He experimented with a curve to poor effect, but he otherwise doesn’t have a pitch with great vertical movement. So his best path to success moving forward is to take more risks outside of the zone and trust his command – and there’s definite progress toward that as he showed great improvement in July and August before sputtering a bit in September. It was a nice improvement for the rookie leading into 2024. However, he now has to win a rotation spot after the signing of Nick Martinez, and to do so he has to beat out two pitchers with better stuff in fellow lefties Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott. Such is the life of a backend starter, but he’s definitely a MLB-quality player. Just not a significant one for the hobby.
Though he’s still officially a prospect and not so significant for the hobby, Dominic Fletcher has some major value for the Diamondbacks as a 4th OF-type – he’s up here because we can already see that moving into 2024. He’s a good OF defender first and foremost, but in his brief debut he also showed that his hit tool is perhaps average and with gap-to-gap pop, and should see at least 250 AB’s in 2024. Should an injury occur, he’d probably work as a plug-and-play everyday bat. A rung lower is Michael Massey, who has defensive value at 2B and a good feel for the barrel that lets him get to some HR pop, but otherwise is a below average regular in a bad Royals lineup. And below that, we have Josh H. Smith, who’s accumulated a year’s worth of MLB games as a utility glove-only player. There’s real life value in it, but it’s a zero for the hobby.
Michael Toglia is a quality 1B defender and has always had great raw power, but his inability to hit anywhere near enough in the majors has now reached a 270 PA span, punctuated by a 35 K% and only 6 HR. Peyton Burdick is also a quality defender, but in the OF and with a few less PA’s and more ghastly K numbers. Luken Baker is in the same boat as Toglia, but is still a prospect because he provides zero defensive value. Grae Kessinger doesn’t deserve to be buried this deep because he does have a decent bat, but after spending 3 months with the Astros and only getting 45 PA’s, it’s hard to project him for anything in the foreseeable future. He should be in a similar bench role for 2024.
Hayden Wesneski, Zack Thompson, Chris Murphy, and Alec Marsh are recent starters that, going forward, seem to be in swing roles for their respective teams, which is not great for the hobby. Drey Jameson is the same but is now recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson, both underwhelming in their 2023 rookie seasons, will battle it out for the last spot in the Diamondbacks rotation. Win or lose, it’s not important for the hobby to either’s significance. Isaiah Campbell, Sean Hjelle, and Andre Pallante are the only straight-up relievers at this point from this class that have had success in the majors, but none have cut their teeth in high-leverage situations just yet.
PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANCE
With most of the best players graduating prospect status, this is a tier of one: Michael Busch. He needs to be freed from the purgatory of depth that is the Dodgers organization. Busch smashed 27 HR in AAA in 2023 to pair with a sub-20 K% and a .431 OBP in 2023. He’s ready for the show. But there’s really no argument for playing time with his defensive limitations and guys like James Outman proving themselves. There’s no clear path to playing time in 2024 either – he’s trade bait, and I don’t know why the Dodgers wouldn’t do it. He has 30 HR potential on a bad team (or just a team that needs a DH/1B!), but for now we just wait. At 26, there’s some risk he just rots on the vine at this point, but everyone holding cards from this set and those plentiful 2023 RC’s is hoping that’s not the case.
OTHER PROSPECTS
The closest prospect to the tier above is Rece Hinds. In his age-22 season in 2023, he showed some progression, hitting 23 HR in AA and improved plate discipline, though it was still just a .330 OBP and a lot of swing-and-miss. His second half was marginally better than his first – probably a sign he’s ready for AAA, and that will be the true test to see whether Hinds can piece himself into the Reds’ young core. He’s a moderate threat on the basepaths, but his speed is just average. Hinds first played OF in 2022 so he’s also still a bit raw out there, where his arm plays well in RF. Hinds has always been an under-the-radar favorite for the hobby, and he remains there now with no clear path to playing time in Cincinnati and still having a ways to go developmentally. He is on the 40-man though, so it’s fair to think he could debut this year if needed.
Kyren Paris is also somewhat close to getting into the next tier. Still just 22 and already having made his debut, his plus speed gives him a chance to stick at SS, but he’s probably better suited to 2B in the long run. He swings and misses quite a bit in the zone, so he’ll always strike out more than you’d like. However, he does work counts deep and though he’s still learning how to fully take advantage to do doing damage, he earned a 20 BB% at AA,. There’s some good natural pop in his bat, but his swing is more geared to hit the ball hard on the ground so he can take advantage of his speed. Those 14 HR he hit in AA in 2023? Almost all in the first half, and not reflective of the approach change that got him to the majors. Will he be able to adjust and get back to a bit of pop while maintaining a high enough OBP to be valuable at the top of the lineup? That’s THE question with Paris, but if he does it there’s a decent player for the hobby here.
A first rounder, Quinn Priester’s hobby interest has never really grown or decreased since release. Though he had a pretty awful 50-inning MLB debut, keep in mind he was only 22 – only Eury Perez and Taj Bradley logged more innings at a younger age in the majors in 2023 – so there’s absolutely a curve to grade against. That said it’s still only a mid-rotation ceiling and with the signings of Marco Gonzalez and Martin Perez, he’s battling for a roster spot to begin 2024. Command and repertoire choice were his enemy in 2023. He was very handedness-dependent in his repertoire, going sinker-slider vs RHB and 4FB-change-curve vs LHB. Priester’s calling card has always been that beautiful 70 grade curve, but it’s so much less effective when he’s only throwing it to lefties and, like the rest of his offerings, not commanding it well. The four-seamer he tried to pair that curve with was quite poor all-around (.818 SLG) and might need to be reworked. Maybe AAA is what’s best for now. If he’s going to continue with this type of usage profile, he needs to be more aggressive in the zone with much better command – not an easy ask. Anyhow, hobby-wise there’s still potential with Priester but it’s not likely to happen in 2024.
Tyler Fitzgerald is now 26 and has just 34 PA’s in the majors - that saps his hobby significance. But he did have a breakout year in 2023 – his K% dropped, his BB% went up, he swung and missed less, and he maintained good game power. He also has enough speed to be a moderate threat on the base-paths and play CF on occasion. What we’re talking about for 2024 is to earn a bench / utility spot by beating out Brett Wisely. They’ll probably both get some run in that role, but if Fitzgerald does well he could demand a bigger share – with 400 PA’s I think he could touch 15 HR / 15 SB. With just a 4th round pedigree though, he’s not being given anything. If you could get in for nothing on Fitzgerald it might be worth the flier in hopes he seizes a role - there’s a nice sum-of-parts here if he builds on his 2023 success.
Joey Ortiz is in the Orioles plans (famous last words) and ready for the MLB. He’s too strong of a defender and too mature of a hitter not to be. However, while that hit tool is at least average, he has very little power. And there’s so much higher-ceiling offensive talent in the positions that he plays (Gunnar, Holliday, Norby, and even Westburg) that lead to Ortiz previously having and continuing to have trouble breaking into the lineup in the majors. Jorge Mateo or Ramon Urias falling off an offensive cliff stand between him and a utility role otherwise. So you can see now why Ortiz is just so forgettable in the eyes of the hobby.
Korey Lee is on his second organization after being traded to the White Sox for Kendall Graveman in July, a sign that there’s still some life in his status as a prospect. But the reason for that is more because he’s a great defender, a carrying tool that will have him in the majors for full seasons soon. There’s significant power in his bat too, but he’s tried to adjust his swing so his bat will play in the majors, which sapped it quite a bit. He went from 25 HR last year to 6 in 2023. Altogether I think his likeliest outcome is a backup catcher – the White Sox are giving him a chance to develop more at AAA before they pigeon hole him to that, where his great glove would be a bit of a waste. I don’t think Lee has much hobby significance with all this risk, but being old for a prospect - 26 in July - means less for this position.
Two pitchers who have taken very different paths, Blake Walston and Grant Gambrell, both have futures of some ilk in the back of major league rotations. The more hobby-relevant of the two since he’s yet to turn 23, Walston was a 1st Round pick who’s command took a big step back in 2023, but pitching in Reno is always rough. What’s more important was that he limited hard contact and put together 149 innings of work – that puts him in position to make his debut sometime in 2024. Gambrell is now 26 and not truly hobby-relevant, but he rebounded back onto the Red Sox’ prospect radar after missing 2022 with multiple surgeries on his heel. Altogether, he put together 121 innings of sub-4.00 ERA, getting better with every promotion and a nice 9.5 K/9.
Of course, we also have to mention Daniel Espino. Having a long history of injuries and then undergoing surgery on his shoulder capsule in May, it’s now fair to question his ever reaching the majors in a significant way. As he’s thrown 18 innings since his only healthy season in 2021, it’s highly likely that when he returns to play, it’ll be as a reliever. If there’s a return to form with it, he would absolutely be a weapon out of any bullpen – his stuff has never, ever been the problem. It could happen quickly if rehab goes well. There’s an outside chance we see him in the majors at the end of 2024. Hobby-wise, I don’t think Espino will see a rise in price before his debut, nor should he. He needs to prove he has any durability whatsoever.
The roster status of Andre Lipcius and Colt Keith is interesting headed into the 2024 season. Keith is very much the better prospect, but both are mostly position-less bat-first players. The difference is that Lipcius is 3 years older, had a positive brief debut, and can be thrown into a wider variety of positions (1B/2B/3B/corner OF). He doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors, and I think if he’s given a shot he’d put up better numbers than Zack McKinstry and Andy Ibanez (who do have options). I don’t like the squeeze of his status with those better defensive players plus the pressure of Colt Keith, but there’s a small path of hobby relevance – it’s just not a very high-ceiling one. If he somehow gets to 400 AB’s in his rookie year it could be 12 HR with a .350 OBP.
His glove will play at 2B and Chase Strumpf is hitting enough to reach the majors, now having his second consecutive season of 20 HR / .370 OBP in the high minors. His tools aren’t so loud to demand a call-up to the Cubs though, and Nico Hoener is a massive roadblock. Though he’s working hard to remain relevant at 3B and 1B, he’s not there right now – a utility role isn’t in the cards. If he were in a worse org he’d be looking at a full season in the majors, but as it is, maybe September. If you’re speculating on him for the hobby, it’s in hopes that he gets traded to a team that plays him in short order – he’ll be 26 soon.
Seth Johnson looked very promising in 2021-22 but underwent TJ early in the year then was interestingly flipped to the Orioles in 2022, so we’ll have to see how he rebounds in 2024. Recovery went well, as he made it back for a few innings, but time is running out on his hobby significance as he’s now 25. As far as other starters who have reached the high minors, Kendall Williams is buried in the deep Dodgers system and is likely to end up as a GB specialist in the middle of a bullpen somewhere. Matthew Thompson has more of a chance to remain a starter as he has a more complete repertoire and better stuff, but his command is still quite bad.
There’s plenty of prospects still worth mentioning – I’m not doing them justice, but here’s some quick hits:
Infield – Davis Wendzel has always paired an impressive mullet with solid utility infield skills, but he also broke out offensively with a 30 HR / .363 OBP season at AAA this year. The problem for the hobby is that he’s 27 in May and has no path forward with the Rangers. It’s a similar story for Aaron Schunk with the Rockies despite his .290/.350/.461 slash at AAA. Keep your eye on Anthony Prato – he was a 7th Round pick and he’ll be 26 in May now but he’s improved every year and is now knocking at the door for an opportunity with Minnesota. Matthew Lugo is younger so he still has time, but his free-swinging tendencies hurt him in a major way in his first taste of AA, with a tumble in his SLG from .500 to .381. He’s also transitioned completely off of SS to 3B/OF. I’ve always liked Tyler Callihan, and he showed a hit tool that could end up as MLB-average in his first full healthy season at age 23, and even has a little pop to go with it – for someone who’s completely off the radar, he’s interesting. I think Nasim Nunez has a legitimate chance to stick with the Nationals as a Rule 5 pick - he has elite speed and significant value as a defensive replacement. Braden Shewmake and Will Wilson are likely 2B whose offensive impact at AAA haven’t been quite enough yet to earn a crack at a big league lineup yet but they should see time in a bench role soon.
Outfield & DH – Hunter Bishop only has one (somewhat) healthy pro season under his belt and turns 26 in June. It makes him largely irrelevant, but his lack of AB’s still gives a glimmer of hope that he can regain what made him the 10th overall pick – that’d be a solid blend of power and speed with enough of a hit tool to be a lineup mainstay. It’s probably not going to happen though. Kyle McCann has power and has shown it in AAA, but he’s mostly a DH these days and with 32 K%, the A’s aren’t looking to put him in a significant role anytime soon. Kameron Misner is much more polished as a hitter and has the arm to be a corner OF, but it's the same story of striking out too much to earn a call-up. Most surprisingly, Greg Jones (yep, mostly an OF now) is the third player in this same boat, though his speed could get him to the majors regardless. Will Robertson and Matt Gorski have a little pop with some defensive value, but are both 26 and aren’t likely to make an impact in the majors, but might be 5th OF-types.
Pitcher - At 26, Noah Song’s career is just now starting after fulfilling his commitment to the Navy and contending with a back injury. JJ Goss’ early development was limited by injury until 2022 but he’s performed well enough that he deserves his crack at AA in 2024. Same goes for Jack Kochanowicz, but he actually made it to AA – as a GB specialist, his stuff is less interesting for the hobby though. Evan Fitterer threw 123 innings in A+ and AA in the Marlins system with almost a K/9. I think he’s more of a fill-in starter when he’s ready, but he could see time in the majors in late 2024 or 2025. Ethan Small, Antoine Kelly, and Denyi Reyes (no 1st designation) are now relief prospects but have either debuted or will in 2024. Matt Canterino and John Doxakis are also names that still have a future in organized ball but have been hurt. All of these guys really only have a glimmer of hobby relevance. There’s another 15 active pitchers from this product, but it’s pretty clear that none of those guys will have much hobby interest.
Down here they’re all fringe prospects, but I’ll give youth it’s due There’s another 12 position players who were 2019 preps that haven’t touched AA yet, so they don’t look great in my model but they’re just headed into their Age-23 seasons. Among them are Jamari Baylor (now with Colorado, having issues handling High-A), Hudson Head (loved him, but as feared his hit tool has failed to launch), and Joshua Mears (that plus raw power gets weighed down quite a bit by the, um, 40 K%). As far as college bats, we can get into guys like Kody Hoese and Evan Edwards who are still holding on but it’s pretty clear they won’t have significant major league careers.
SUMMARY
So, now we see why this product is so, so expensive in 2024. Star power galore, and some players are still coming onto their own with potential to get there. This is a product that could end up with ten players with base autographs at $50 or (much) higher by the end of the year — that’s ridiculous, five years after release. It’s definitely the best product I’m going to write about in this series, and I don’t see that opinion changing with any release going forward.