This off-season, I’ve taken a look back at past Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with. This is the seventh in this series. I previously wrote about 2018 Bowman Draft, 2019 Bowman, 2019 Bowman Chrome, 2019 Bowman Draft, 2020 Bowman & BC, 2020 Bowman Draft, and 2021 Bowman. This is my penultimate retrospective for this off-season.
Bowman Chrome is generally a celebration of the most recent J15 talent — the problem with the 2021 J15 class is that they came as a result of promises to international players who had widely varied experiences in 2020. Many of the high-bonus signers were based on old scouting reports, or players who had not truly seen a highly competitive environment for awhile. The variance between how they’ve progressed has proved even more volatile, and slower, than it normally is. There’s more than just those 2021 J15’s in here though — let’s take a look.
Top of the Crop
Ezequiel Tovar was the youngest player to qualify for the batting title in 2023. Now youth isn’t the only hobby factor to consider when it comes to being the majors of course, but it does forgive being rough around the edges, which he definitely was on the offensive side. On the defensive side Tovar was a Gold Glove finalist – it’s the tool that got him to the majors so quickly and the one that makes him look like a lineup mainstay for years to come in Colorado. How much more relevant he becomes for the hobby depends on how his bat develops. His offensive issues really tie back to his complete lack of discipline. You don’t get to 15 HR like he had without good power. You don’t get to a .253 batting average like he had without a good feel for the barrel. Really, discipline comes with maturity, and no one thought he was mature heading into the season. He is who we thought he was. If we see some positive trends in 2024, I think it’s fair to think the trends continue for the next few years. If that happens, at peak we’re looking at a .280-hitting, 25 HR Gold Glove SS. It’s a really nice hobby ceiling to dream on, and one that’s more likely to be a reality than many prospects.
We all know the hobby isn’t kind to catchers, but Jeferson Quero is a special defender. Everyone sees him as the Brewers’ catcher of the future, and it could come as soon as late this year. At the plate he doesn’t have any deficiencies either, but no one is saying he has a plus hit or power. That’s completely fine for a player so certain to be a positive, playing such an important role on defense. As a Brewers fan I’ll take a 15 HR / .340 OBP from my catcher when he’s winning Gold Gloves. We’re all familiar with a guy who did something like that against us for 14 years in St. Louis, and he ended up just fine in the hobby.
Emmanuel Rodriguez walked again as I was writing this. In fact he’s walked 149 times in 654 PA’s since this product was released, a ridiculous 22.8%. He has the opposite problem many of his peers have – he’s too passive at the plate. If it wasn’t a two year trend I’d think that’s great, it’s easy to just be more aggressive! Right now though it’s looking much more like a bug than a feature, and one that may prevent him from reaching his offensive ceiling. Without any signs of change it’s tough to know if his below-average contact rate would improve, or if his excellent 44% XBH would take a hit. If both of those things trend positively he has an immense ceiling – and wish-casting those changes to his hit tool would make him truly a 5-tool talent. He has above average speed and plays good defense in CF, and no one doubts his plus raw power. He’s already a consensus Top 50 prospect and is priced as such for the hobby, as he should – just be aware there’s still plenty of risk in his ceiling.
MLB
Josh Winckowski was the linchpin of the Red Sox bullpen last year as their long man. Of course, you don’t want the long man to be the linchpin, but he performed really well nonetheless. His mix consists of a 96 MPH sinker that he pairs with a cutter/slider combo that move in the same direction at the same speed with different depths. Doesn’t sound very fun to hit off of. That’s really what it is – he gives up plenty of hits but just a .393 SLG. He’s shown enough moxie to get out of most anything. I don’t think what I’m describing here will work in a starting role so what he’s doing now, while it’s not great for the hobby, is his continued path to success in the majors.
Gregory Santos kicked around the Giants 40-man for two years before being picked up on waivers by the White Sox in December 2022, and he proved to be one of the best pieces of their bullpen last year. He did it with a new fastball (it was previously flat) to pair with his wipeout slider. Though he didn’t post a high-K% there’s no doubt that a high leverage role is in his future, and that’s why the Mariners paid a significant price in acquiring him. Obviously we’re talking about a reliever here, so the hobby context isn’t great.
The A’s want Jordan Diaz to be their 3B, but he’s just not maturing as a hitter as fast as they’d like. With Abraham Toro (oof) now on the roster, that allows Diaz to head back to AAA to figure things out. Diaz has good bat-to-ball skills, but he chases so much that his strikeout numbers look just average. He’s also a really aggressive hitter without a swing geared for power – not a good combination. Diaz’s keys to success are to chase less and understand counts more. Do I trust the A’s to help him mature? Nope. I’m off him for the hobby. Even looking at it less sardonically, with only 15-20 HR potential and a bad hobby context, you should be off him too.
Gilberto Celestino has never had a lot of offensive upside, but his OF defense is so strong that the Twins needed him to man CF for 68 games in 2022. With a better constructed roster in 2023 Celestino was not needed in the majors, and a torn thumb ligament in March made that more of a certainty. Once recovered he spent the rest of his year at AAA where he walked more than he struck out, but with little impact. He elected free agency this offseason and signed a minor league deal with the Pirates. He’s out of options, so it won’t be so easy to leapfrog Canaan Smith-Njigba and Joshua Palacios to be the next man up in their OF depth. I’m afraid he’s trending towards being just a MiLB-depth piece. Clearly not a hobby name to consider.
Osleivis Basabe has 94 PA’s in the majors – close enough for me to graduate him for this piece. He’s not really an interesting hobby name, but he provides value to the Rays in his versatile defense. Eventually, I think he’ll be neutral offensively as well. It didn’t show in his debut but Basabe never had a K% over 16 or an average under .280 in the minors. There’s just no power with him. He deploys an aggressive approach and looks to slap the ball into the gaps. I think it makes sense that he struggled in the majors – this is a highly skilled approach and doing it against the best of the best will take some time. He might carve out close to a full time role at some point but it’s pretty clear he’ll never be a hobby star.
With 46 innings in the majors, Jose Butto is also “close enough” to push up here. Never really a maven in the art of the strikeout, Butto gets hitters out by attacking the zone with his fastball and change, with a few breakers mixed in. It works well because his change has great depth, but in 2023 he hung too many and got hammered a bit, especially in AAA. With improved command he could definitely be a back end rotation piece for the Mets, but could also be he longman in the bullpen. Without much of a ceiling he’s not a strong hobby name, but he does figure to be an MLB contributor in 2024 and beyond.
Prospects of Significance
There were a lot of positive trends with Byan Ramos last year despite a late start. He increased his BB% dramatically with just a small sacrifice to his XBH% – it was a flipped switch to a MLB-serviceable hit tool that we love to see. He also really settled into 3B defensively, and projects as an average defender there. But his carrying tool is the one we love in the hobby – power. I think he’ll be a 20-25 HR peak, but with those newfound supporting skills that’s a solid MLB regular. To me the bigger question falls to Colson Montgomery’s ability to stick at SS. If he can, the path is clear for Ramos to take over the 3B job in the South Side in 2025. If not, his exact path to playing time in the majors is a bit murkier. Regardless, he’s a rising asset I’m interested in for the hobby.
The best of the 2021 J15’s in this product, Miguel Bleis is still a long way away. He did post an outstanding 141 wRC+ in the Complex in 2022, but it did not go as well when he was promoted to Low-A for 2023. He didn’t look completely over-matched either though before he tore up his shoulder in June – it’s fair to think that adjustments to the level just hadn’t happened yet. It’s the power projection that’s the most interesting part of Bleis’ game. He’s run a contact rate that’s been fringy, but high enough for him to be able to get to a bit of it in games. Headed into his age-20 season now, I’d like to see him get to double digit HR. The rest of his profile is nice too. Bleis isn’t a true burner but should remain a definite threat on the base-paths, and his plus arm is a perfect fit to the modern athletic RF mold. If he improves his plate decisions it’s fair to call Bleis a five-tool player, and that’s what the hobby has been betting on all along. He just has to prove his hard-swingin’ approach won’t continue to cause injury now.
In 2023, Nick Frasso proved he is who we thought he could be, given health. His first year of over 60 innings in pro ball, the big 6’5” righty showed he can be truly tough to hit against. As you might think he’s tremendous at extending, which makes his high-90’s fastball even tougher to hit. He pairs that with his secondaries to limit hard contact with great effect. In 96 innings last year he allowed just 4 HR and limited hitters to a .346 SLG, to add to a K/9 over 10. He also had just an 8 BB%, so he’s likely to be given a shot to remain in the rotation. At 25 he still has work to do in AAA, but he was added to the 40-man this off-season so there’s not a lot stopping him from making his debut this summer. He’s clearly a buy for the hobby right now considering the potential within the market he’ll be pitching.
He’s almost certainly a reliever for this season, but similar to Frasso, Kyle Hurt has every other hobby ingredient we like, including being in a huge market like the Dodgers. He’s a low-arm slot righty with a 95-97 MPH riding fastball and easily plus change that’s been an effective modern prospect model in recent years. He also has good enough command in his breaking pitches that he’s able to use any pitch on any count. It resulted in a 36% CSW and a K/9 nearing 15 in 2023. He’s always shown glimpses of this but a small leap forward in his command (it’s still below average) made it fully click. He is on the older side – 26 in May – but it’s clear he’s ready to produce in the majors so I don’t think it matters as much. He’s another very clear buy for Dodgers’ fans right now, and if you believe he could convert back to being a starter in a few years, an easy buy for collectors at large.
Proximity Prospects
Hey look a new category! All of these guys have at least a 40-50% chance to see time in the majors in 2024, but for varying reasons don’t deserve a ton of hobby interest. I did this to separate from the ‘Other Prospects’ section, where a few names do still have some definite interest.
We know Eguy Rosario will see time in the majors this year – he’s been given looks each of the past two years. His 2023 season was delayed until June by a broken ankle – he didn’t run much as a result, but he does have the chops to steal double digit bases given the opportunity. Rosario also has enough power to get to double digit HR and enough plate skill to put up a .325 OBP. But none of this is really enough to push him to the majors as a lineup mainstay, especially with Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts manning the positions he plays. He’s essentially competing for a roster spot with Matthew Batten, and if I’m the Padres I value Batten’s more extensive versatility. So I think Rosario heads back to AAA to begin his age-24 season, where he’ll look to prove he can be a sum-of-the parts type utility player. He never got there last year because of injury, but he’s been there before (he slashed .288/.368/.508 in 2022!) and I think he could get to a place of moderate hobby interest. There’s just no telling when that will be.
I could have sworn Tyler Gentry debuted already, but nope. That will definitely happen this year after he slashed .253/.370/.421 in AAA last year, which made it a no-brainer for the Royals to add him to the 40-man this offseason. He’s a well-balanced OF with a little bit of speed and a little bit of pop – there’s no clear carrying tool but also no clear deficiencies. He does have a plus arm which makes him an easy fit in RF. Hunter Renfroe is a better player than Gentry at present, so there’s not a clear path in 2024 But when injuries happen, Gentry will get a shot and probably accrue 100-150 PA’s in the majors. We’ll see what he’s able to do with those, but especially with his already being 25, I don’t anticipate it being something the hobby will clamber over. I think he has a solid chance to have a 5-8 year MLB career though.
Pedro Leon turns 26 in May and has a lot to prove at AAA before the Astros give him a chance. And without his occupying a 40-man spot, there’s no reason to rush it. Sure, the 21 HR in AAA is nice, but that’s a FULL season – his power is closer to average than above average. And with just a 68% contact rate within it there’s a lot of reason to doubt he’ll be as successful in the majors. He’s been deployed in CF at AAA but he’s not really a strong option there. His speed might be his best usable tool, where given full run he could get to 20 SB. It’s a fair statement to say Leon has pumpkined, at least in hobby terms. But he’s far more likely to make it to the majors than many others in this release.
I hate shoulder impingements. They’re something players tend to play through but they can affect power pretty dramatically. Such is the case with Malcom Nunez. After slugging his way to AAA with 23 HR in his age-21 season in 2022 and being the centerpiece of a trade that brought him to Pittsburgh, it really looked like he would be making an impact in the majors last year. That never happened, and Nunez struggled all year, missing two months with the shoulder issue that rest did not seem to heal. I’m reading his poor performance as entirely injury-related, but that could be wrong. Was his 2022 a mirage? It’s possible. I just want to know he’s healthy before I call him a fringe-big leaguer, which is what he looked like in 2023. His solid plate approach and (for now just raw) power is enough to get him to the majors despite fringy contact and defensive skills with poor speed.
It’s tough to evaluate him when he just can’t stay healthy, but Tanner Murray has the ceiling of an MLB utility type. He just needs to consistently show that his hit tool can be the average asset it’s expected to be – if he does that the rest of his profile (mostly 45’s) should have him in the majors in a bench role by the time he turns 25 in September. In 2023 in limited playing time he posted a 110 wRC+ at AA and touched AAA, so it’s a slightly positive trend. There’s a remote shot he gets to a modicum of hobby interest.
Julio Carreras is poised to make his debut with a decent showing in AAA this year. It’s not really at all a matter of his offensive skills, though he does have a mature approach at the plate and shouldn’t strike out a ton. His speed and defense are just very valuable assets – so much so that he was added to the 40-man. Hobby wise though there’s not much power – his career high in the minors was 11 HR, and he only projects to be a low-.200’s hitter. In short, he’s a future defensive replacement-type, which makes him a poor hobby asset, even though there is a floor.
Something clicked for Jordy Barley mid-season last year – from July 16 onward he slashed .323/.400/.468 including his promotion to AAA. If something like that continues, he has the speed and defensive acumen to be a solid utility player. Of course, that’s an awfully small sample of recency bias after five years of mostly struggle. There’s never been much game power, so he’s not a hobby name to consider any way the cookie crumbles – but don’t be surprised if he makes an appearance in Washington this year.
At release I remember thinking Carlos D. Rodriguez would just ride his stellar outfield defense to a role in Milwaukee by 2024. He’s actually been fine, but his defensive value, while great, never truly ticked up to being a plus tool and he’s now just more of a nice corner OF. He also ran an elite contact rate in 2023 – 85% – and it’s generally translated well to his batting average. His hit tool really is an above average asset. So what gives? Why isn’t this guy talked about more as a piece of the Brewers OF puzzle? Well, it’s because he’s very small and compact with short levers, and has always understood his job is to punch liners and get on base. There’s no game power whatsoever and now at 23, not projected for any. That said, his upper body isn’t filled out so maybe a few more of those liners go over the fence if he adds muscle? I still think he’s underrated as a prospect and will definitely get to the majors. But I’m also certain he carries little hobby relevance.
Other Prospects
Now entering his age-20 season, it’s still tough to get a read on Shalin Polanco. He posted a sub 30 K% and a very nice 43% of his hits went for extra bases last year (including 12 HR), so there’s at least some intrigue in regards to future power. His approach was also decent enough to end up with a league average wRC+. But his contact rate being just 65% at Low-A is concerning, and that’s been a consistent worry. However, what he showed in Bradenton at 19 was still enough that despite missing the final six weeks of the season with a quad injury, I still think he heads to High-A to begin 2024. Through the rosiest of glasses Polanco is the modern profile of an athletic RF with a 25 HR / 20 SB upside. He’s just a long way from that becoming a reality in the majors. He’s solidly the #2 2021 J15 in this product.
An older 2021 J15, the prospect status of Yiddi Cappe has been up, and is now down in the eyes of the hobby in the few years since release. He even saw a few Top 100 lists after his outstanding 2022 where he slashed .290/.328/.438 in the Complex and Low-A. Aggressively moved to High-A for 2023, his performance was not as glowing. I think it’s mostly because he’s still rail-thin and couldn’t match the physicality of the higher level more than anything. He made enough contact, but his hyper-aggressive approach led to too much of it being the low-quality variety. I think added strength will cure most in that regard, but it wouldn’t hurt to be a bit more selective. Though he’s generally a solid defender, he’s been inconsistent at SS and was moved to 2B. I don’t know where to go with Cappe hobby-wise as he enters his age-21 season – he’s still a lot of projection. Any decision you make I’d be OK with, but based on BP video from January there was no off-season physical transformation.
He struggled at AAA in 2023, and isn’t a strong defender, so I don’t think the soon-to-be 26 YO Elijah Dunham has a good chance to debut this year. But he did show some power at that highest level of the minors and is still in that Yankees system, so his hobby following has a chance to grow quickly should he perform this year. It was a sub-70% contact rate that was Dunham’s undoing. He does have potential for average to above-average power should that contact rate tick into the low 70’s, and his approach is solid enough to make it as an offense-centric 4th OF. There’s just that ticking clock considering his age. Any way you slice it, the former UDFA is already a success story to make it this far.
At release there were a lot of bets taken on Victor Acosta – he had, after all, just finished a DSL season where he posted a 153 wRC+. But since coming stateside he’s proven that’s not who he is. He’s a glove-first shortstop with a real chance to stick at the position. Overall he’s an average asset offensively too, but it’s more of an ability to find the barrel than any power whatsoever. Still 19 until June, there’s a lot of physical development yet to be had in his upper body, and I think he’ll need it as he moves to High-A this year to keep up projection to an average hit tool. For now I still think he has a solid chance to make it to the majors (it’s too early to tell in what capacity), but I don’t think he’ll be a star.
It’s intriguing that Manuel Beltre has an optimized swing path. With the short levers in his compact frame though, I don’t think his power has much of an opportunity to improve. In fact his lower half is thickening a bit – he looks more like a 2B or 3B in the future, but position isn’t the concern here. He needs to make more quality contact, but as close to maxed out as he is it’s not something the weight room can really help. There’s not an easy solution to get him to a MLB projection – maybe sacrifice that swing path a bit to hit the ball on the ground more? He still has good enough speed that that may work, but I think it’d cost him any chance at fringy power. To me there’s just way too many questions for me to consider him for the hobby, but putting him this high means I think I could be wrong – he is still a teenager until June after all.
Yohendrick Pinango has shown an above average contact rate and generally good launch angles for years, but he has one major thing working against him – he doesn’t have enough impact in his bat for enough of those batted balls to have positive outcomes. He’s run a sub-.300 BABIP for two full healthy seasons in High-A now despite good speed and that neutral batted ball profile. The upper half of his body even matured heading into 2023 – I think this is now a case of having smaller levers and not being able to use them to great effect. I don’t know what the solution is heading into his age-22 season. He’s probably headed to AA, where I think he needs to slug near .400 to get to a bit of hobby relevance.
Before Taylor Dollard went down with a labrum injury that eventually required surgery, he showed some real promise of being a back-end starter. He had a great 2022 season where he limited hard contact to an extreme – he allowed just 7 XBH in 144 innings to go with a .200 BAA. Now, having undergone his surgery last June, Dollard won’t be ramped back up to AAA until mid-season at the earliest and likely facing a lightened workload afterward. I wouldn’t consider him a lock to debut this year in his age-25 season, and that makes him deservedly a deeper sleeper for the hobby.
As evidenced by his 39% whiff rate, Chih-Jung Liu has swing-and-miss stuff. Everything he did in 2023 was at AA Portland, so he was doing it against age-appropriate competition too. The problem is that his secondaries aren’t commanded well, and while his fastball can get into the upper 90’s it tends to be flat. The result of those things are then when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. I think he’s a better pitcher than his bloated ERA indicates but to get the most of him moving forward, he’d be better suited out of the bullpen. That’s a prediction and not a reality for now, so Red Sox fans looking to get in cheap should temper future expectations.
A 5th round lotto ticket in the 2020 Draft, Jagger Haynes just got his career started in 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. The lefty was still limited to just 25 innings due to blister and shoulder issues, but he was working out with the AFL squad so they don’t seem like major injuries. That’s not a lot to go on, but those 25 innings showed some promise. I just want to see more in 2024, hopefully 75 innings of the same, which would put him back on the prospect map.
Kevin Made doesn’t need to be an average hitter to make it to the majors, but there’s a chance he gets there with time. Not with power mind you – and at 5’9” I wouldn’t think he ever gets to 10 HR in the majors. Rather, I think Made might end up as a bottom-of-the-order pesky-out type. What will carry Made is a plus arm on the left side of the infield, with his glove having potential to compliment it in kind. Of course, a player like this is not a significant hobby asset, especially now in the Nationals system. But in a year’s time I think he’ll establish himself as having the floor of an MLB role player for early 2026.
If you only look at the middle of Po-Yu Chen’s 2023 season at High-A, he was great! From mid-May to mid-August, he spun a 2.88 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and excellent command. I like looking at that snapshot because it accounts for settling into the level, and then running out of gas at the end. He ended up with a career high 119.2 innings, so it’s at least fair to think that the Pirates think of him being able handle a larger workload. He mixes his well-commanded fastball (which has ticked up to 94), slider, and curve to set up his out pitch, a splitter that’s a true table-dropper. That splitter is his only plus offering at present, and that’s an issue because splitters can’t be thrown with great frequency. But there’s promise elsewhere in his profile too. With a fairly neutral batted ball profile, he sustained a very high HR/FB ratio – I think there’s flukiness to that. As long as his command continues to trend positively, Chen has a good chance to make it to Pittsburgh as a rotation piece. We’re just a year or two away from that yet, which would still be fine hobby-wise, at age 23-24.
So, did you see my Tyler Gentry writeup above? I think his Omaha teammate Tucker Bradley is a light version of that. His hit tool is basically the same, but he has a hair less speed, less power, and he doesn’t come close to Gentry’s arm strength. Bradley also doesn’t have the 40-man spot that Gentry has. Without any real standout tools I don’t think he’s a strong option for a call-up unless things go very wrong with injuries in KC. He’ll also be 26 in May, so not a name to consider for the hobby.
Some players need a second run at a level to prove their previous good season wasn’t a fluke, and Gabriel Rodriguez fits that bill. In 2022 he put up a solid .272/.343/.416 as a 20 YO in High-A. With a big muscular frame, it was a great season from which to speculate future success. AA proved to be an immense challenge though, and it was the entire year. His struggles tie back to his ability to make contact. Now heading into his age-22 season he has a lot to prove – it’s time for him to actually get to that promise of power. If I see 10-15 HR, a mid-.200 batting average, and a sub 25 K% in 2024 I’d be back in on him for the hobby, but getting to that is much easier said than done. His likelier path to the majors is slow improvements and a debut several years down the line. As he’s a fringy defender at 3B at present, there’s a lot of pressure on that offensive production coming to fruition.
Luis Rodriguez (9/16/2002, Dodgers) showed marginal improvement in repeating Low-A last year. It wasn’t enough to say he has much of a chance to reach the lofty expectations he had at release as a $2.5 MM signer in July 2019. He got off to a late start in 2023 but there were a lot of the same sizable swing-and-miss issues. He did have better quality of contact, and with his speed I think it makes the high BABIP he ran believable. Still, to have a projection to the majors he needs to improve the amount of contact he makes while maintaining his decent approach. He still has a great, projectable body. It just hasn’t quite translated to baseball to date.
The Angels don’t have a ton of rhyme or reason to how they promote prospects. Arol Vera was moved to AA when Kyren Paris was promoted to the majors, but he was just filling the SS position. The 60 wRC+ he posted in High-A indicates he truly didn’t deserve that promotion. Vera isn’t your typical light-hitting SS – he’s 6’2” and very well filled out, so much so that he seems likely to move off of SS. He doesn’t have speed that translates to the base-paths either. While making contact isn’t an issue, his hit doesn’t look like a carrying tool at present. There’s a possibility that with a swing change he gets to more impactful contact, but right now there’s a lot of moving parts. His approach is also not great. While Vera was an interesting name at release and he’s touched the high minors at a young age I don’t see a projection to the majors, but this is the Angels so it could still happen!
Milkar Perez turned around the bad BABIP luck he had in 2022, so it was a much better season, right? Well, yes, but improving on a 53 wRC+ isn’t hard when you’re repeating the level. It was generally just a better version of what we’ve seen – good contact rate, no power. For a player who’s very much reliant on his bat to propel him, it wasn’t enough. I’m still off him, but at 22 there’s a chance he tears up High-A with that solid approach. It’s just not a probability.
One of the top chases in the set at release, Cristian Hernandez has definitely been passed by 2022 J15 Jefferson Rojas – but let’s look at this through a different lens. In Hernandez, we have a prospect who is very raw everywhere but clearly has the ability to stick at SS, and with Rojas likely headed to High-A sometime in 2024, Hernandez should get that chance again. Hernandez is not without positives on the offensive side – he stole 27 bases in 2023 and still has that promise of raw power. His K% was under 30%, but it wasn’t enough to see great results because he whiffed too much, setting himself up for weak contact. It’s really hard to get a read on how his hit tool will progress enough to have MLB projection, but if he does I think the power will tick up as well, which would make him a lesser version of the player that signed for $3 MM in 2021.
It’s hard to think of Cristian Santana as anything but a fading asset now, but it hasn’t always been that way so I’m willing to forgive his abysmal 2023 to an extent. His 2022 season was far from a standout performance, but he played almost the entire year as an 18 YO in Low-A and posted a .379 OBP with 9 HR, good for a 123 wRC+. It seemed like a nice building block season. Always a patient hitter, in 2023 he took an even more passive approach at the plate in his hunt to mash, and oh boy did it ever eat into his offensive value. There was still a fringy ability to make contact, and his OBP and ISO maintained, but those are the only positives. Hitting 65% fly balls will only ever work if a player truly has plus power, and Santana does not. That makes the .194 BABIP he ran not fluky. There simply must be a swing change for Santana to regain any semblance of an MLB projection.
Armando Cruz hasn’t been great overall. but he’s been as advertised with his stellar glove. That’s an unmitigated positive development. I think developing into enough of a hitter to make it was always going to be a long process with him, and it has been slow, but I think there’s still definite hope that he gets to enough of a hit tool to be a bottom-of-the-order bat in the majors. He’s just a ‘no thanks’ for the hobby, and always has been for me.
This one’s quick. Starlin Aguilar has considerable offensive upside (power hasn’t shown yet), but as his 2023 season ended with a knee injury after just 70 PA’s, he hasn’t gotten a chance to see full season ball. Without quality defense or speed there will be a lot of pressure on his bat.
As he’s now 23 and hasn’t touched AA, I don’t blame you for being hands off on Luis Toribio. I am too. But don’t dismiss his power. He’s shown it’s an above-average asset in games for two years now at High-A, totaling 38 HR. His contact rate ticked up in 2023 as well, but I still don’t think it’s enough to give him projection to the majors in a bubble. What makes that bubble more likely to pop than rise is his lack of speed and fairly austere defensive deficiencies at both 1B and 3B. To make it, he’ll need to either show even more power (an increase to 25-30 HR) or make a lot more contact (a drop in his K% to ~20), and do it at a new level. There’s a lot stacked against him.
Let’s start talking about some of those J15 “flops”. I put that in quotes because these guys are still only 20 – unexpected developments can still happen. Another highly-touted 2021 J15 with similar defensive skills to Victor Acosta, Carlos Colmenarez has not fared quite as well on the offensive side. His power is definitely better, but that really doesn’t matter when you’re running a 60% contact rate. Backing both of those things up, he had a .364 BABIP, but a 38 K%. Hitting the ball hard isn’t the problem. Hitting the ball at all is the problem. He has approach issues, but it’s the opposite of most young hitters – he’s too passive. Could being more aggressive cure some of his swing-and-miss? Maybe. It’s just very clear that Colmenarez is still quite raw and without a floor. He’ll likely head back to Low-A to begin his age-20 season.
Another of the disappointing highly-touted J15’s, we have Pedro Pineda. He’s similar to Colmenarez in his batted balls – he hits it as hard as anyone and runs a high BABIP, but his 65% contact rate is only marginally better. For a player with his power, he also hits the ball on the ground a lot – though his good speed makes for a good compliment. Keep in mind Pineda was billed as a possible 5-tool star at release. The athleticism is still showing! Like Colmenarez, Pineda takes a lot of pitches and hasn’t shown enough of a hit tool to have that approach. Don’t be completely out on him yet – there’s still tools to dream on here, but we’re closer to it being just a dream at this juncture.
Malvin Valdez qualifies here, being a $1.9 MM signer, but he’s never trended positively in the hobby. He has never made contact consistently enough, even in the DSL. There’s enough intrigue in his power, speed, and defense that he’s now failed upwards to Low-A for 33 games, but it’s otherwise the same story as Pineda. Johnny Piron was also seven-figure signer. He has plus speed but struggled to hit in his repeat of the Complex.
We’ll round out the highly-disappointing big-bonus J15’s with the #1 player in the teenage crop, Wilman Diaz. His path has been a bit different from the others. Let’s start with his defensive skills that have not developed as we hoped – he was essentially moved to 2B full time in 2023. His plus speed, likewise, has not translated well to games – he only stole 10 bases in 68 games. Like the others, he’s also still quite raw at the plate, but he’s in that box ready to swing out of his shoes on any count. There’s not much of a plate approach at all with Diaz, and he needs one. A 52% contact rate will never play well at any level, even if you do hit the ball hard enough to run a .370 BABIP. I’m more out on Diaz than the others– there’s just too much to overcome, even at age 20.
Pedro Martinez was injured for a month in 2023 but it’s pretty clear that there were no real offensive gains. His value to the organization ties entirely to his ability to play SS. There’s no power to speak of and he needs to improve his contact rate a hair to make it as a no-ceiling bench-utility type.
At release I was thinking Eduardo Garcia’s defense at SS would carry him as he developed offensively. I was pretty high on that hope. But his hit tool has never developed at all, and he yielded time at SS to Eric Brown Jr when he was healthy. There’s just no projected carrying tool with Garcia anymore, but he could remain as an MiLB role player for a few years yet.
Hitter quick hits: Kale Emshoff had an awakening in the last 8 weeks of the 2023 season (.349/.447/.605 in High-A/AAA), but at almost 26 and trending towards being a 1B-only, he’s not likely to be more than a role player…J.C. Correa took up catching in 2022, and could end up as a utility-type, but there’s no impact with his bat. He’s also now 25 and not an easy add to the 40-man at any point this season…Alexander Mojica saw some marginal improvements at Low-A in 2023, but considering his defensive deficiencies it’s still not enough to merit promotion to High-A entering 2024, his age 21 season…Carson Taylor was taken in the MiLB portion of the Rule V draft by the Phillies, so he still has value to an org, but he’s been below average offensively and never been a great defender behind the plate…Sean Roby, who turns 26 in July, has bounced between High-A and AA for two years, and while he performs well at the lower level his extreme free-swinging tendencies have always been exposed at AA…Now a 22 YO that hasn’t seen High-A yet and doesn’t have loud tools, Rafael Morel just isn’t interesting for the hobby…Age Morel up one year and one level to get Viandel Pena and Ethan Hearn…Nobody’s ever doubted the raw power of Baron Radcliff, but there’s hasn’t been enough improvement to his swing-and-miss issues for him to have projection to the majors…There’s always been the question of Eduarqui Fernandez’s great raw athleticism translating to baseball. But now at 22 without any stateside seasons with double digit HR or SB, and never getting under a 35 K%, it’s fair to think it’s probably not going to happen…You can buy the frame all you want, but Reginald Preciado enters his age-21 season with stateside highs of 2 HR and a .212 BA…Misael Urbina is a smallish dude that makes good plate decisions but just can’t get to his average-across-the-board projections. With the bat it’s due to lack of impact...Luis Mieses elected Free Agency this off-season and signed with the Rangers, where he’ll look to get back on track with his hit tool that fell off significantly at AA…I feel mixed about even including Rikelbin De Castro but if he ever figures anything out at the plate his speed would be a clear carrying tool…
Pitcher quick hits: Justin Martinez and Juan Then have MLB experience but they’re clearly relievers, and not likely to have high leverage upside…Koen Moreno is still just 22 until July but he hasn’t seen High-A and has no idea where the ball is going.
Summary
This is another release that’s turned out quite rough, but again Topps isn’t to blame. It’s loaded with the top International signees from the most recent period, and backed up by other prospects that supposedly had high ceilings. But there was no way to know players like Luis Rodriguez and Reginald Preciado wouldn’t develop, and no way to know the cream of the 2021 J15’s would be Jackson Chourio and Samuel Basallo, and not Wilman Diaz and Cristian Hernandez. There again are very few pitchers in this checklist, which is nice, but the hitters have an even tougher road to hoe than those in 2021 Bowman for this product to regain relevance.